Texas Blues - Early Birds: D's outvoting R's More Than 3 to 1

[Dover]

Texas Monthly


Cumulative Early Vote Totals for the 15 Largest Counties, 2008
(includes Denton, Hidalgo, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Williamson, Nueces, Galveston, Cameron)

Republican early vote for first three days: 56,408
Democratic early vote for first three days: 170,580


What is different about this election -- and the early vote reflects it -- is the intensity of the interest. The overwhelming unpopularity of George W. Bush and everything his presidency represented is driving the turnout nationally and in Texas, and here you can add contempt for the Perry-Dewhurst-Craddick leadership. Whether voters actually absorbed the knowledge that this is the first election with no heir-apparent or just sensed it as part of the zeitgeist, they are driven to make a clean break with the past and have a personal stake in rejecting Bush. I don't think it matters what these new voters' history was -- whether they were non-voters or just general election voters or onetime Reagan Democrats coming home. They are voters now. Even if they are Republicans, they are most likely the moderates who didn't vote in primaries. And they will make the Republican primary more moderate.

Barack Obama's personality and his message are dominating politics nationwide. The last candidate to stir this kind of feeling was Ronald Reagan in 1980 and before him Bobby Kennedy in 1968. Veteran political observers like me can roll our eyes over someone running for president on a platform of "Hope" and "Change," but nothing is so powerful as an idea, even a vague one, whose time has come. Obama is riding the whirlwind, and if he can make the moment last until November, it is going to sweep out the Republicans, even in Texas.

These numbers are so overwhelming, and the fifteen counties have such a large fraction of the state's registered voters -- 7,815,906 of 12,607,466, or 62% -- that what happens in other 239 counties is unlikely to alter the trend. These numbers have made me a believer. Rick Noriega could defeat John Cornyn. The Democrats can win a majority in the Texas House of Representatives. The consummate irony is that George W. Bush, who made Texas a Republican state on his way in to the presidency, may make it a Democratic state on his way out.

Texas is experiencing a tsunami of early voting that has no precedent. I have linked to the Secretary of State's Web site, which provides day-by-day election totals and an archive of early voting history in previous elections. To give you an idea of what is going on, here are comparisons of the total votes cast after the first three days of early voting in the seven biggest counties for 2008, 2006, and 2004 primaries (not counting mail-in votes):....>

http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/2008/02/early-birds-ds-outvoting-rs-almost-3-to.php

[crispini]

1. I love this line:

"But the conventional wisdom doesn't explain why the Democratic turnout in Collin County has increased by more than 1,300%. What happened? Did half of Berkeley move to Collin County?"

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[crispini]

2. Ooo, check out the comments, they're excellent. I love this one:

"What we are likely to see is moderate R's deserting the party in large numbers after voting for McCain, and I believe everybody is in jeopardy, including and especially Culberson, who has turned a deaf ear to the business community. A guy with the Greater Houston Partnership went to Culberson, who is on the Appropriations Committee, to ask for assistance with a federal program for planting trees along freeways, for highway beautification. Culberson pulled out a copy of the Constitution and said, "Show me where it says it's OK for the federal government to buy trees." Plus, his Democratic opponent has outraised him five to one, and who is going to go to bat for Culberson besides Grover Norquist and pals?"

:spray:

[crispini]

3. HOLY COW. Another great comment, albeit anecdotal:

"One thing that leads me to believe that crossover is only a small part of it the fact that the Obama campaign had a Precinct Captain training in Collin County in Frisco a week ago that drew over 430 people."

:wow:

[sonias]

4. Newer numbers than Burka's column

Burnt Orange Report
TX Primary: Early Vote Totals, Through Sunday 2/24
* 360,259 Democrats have voted in the primary through Sunday -- 304,867 more than this point in time in the 2004 primary election. That is absolutely phenomenal.

* In 2004, about 71,000 votes were cast in Harris County -- including the early vote and Election Day totals. Through Sunday, over 64,000 voters had voted early in Harris County -- I expect that they broke last year's mark today.

* In 2004, about 51,000 votes were cast in Dallas County -- including the early vote and Election Day totals. Through Sunday, over 47,600 voters had voted early in Dallas County -- if they didn't break last year's mark today, they'll break it tomorrow.

* The entire statewide turnout in the Democratic primary (early vote and Election Day) in 2004 was around 800,000. There's a chance -- not a certainty, but a chance -- that we will see more voters cast their ballots early this cycle than in all of 2004.

Phillip Martin also has a link to a google spreadsheet he's set up for the first 6 days numbers.

:woohoo: It's a voter stampede!


Sonia

[sonias]

5. Travis Numbers

Postcards from the Lege blog 2/26/08
Early voting numbers reach new highs

Record-breaking early voting numbers in Travis County seem to show no signs of slowing, after more voters turned out at polling sites Monday than any other early voting day so far.

The Travis County Clerk’s Office tallied 9,327 votes Monday — about 500 more votes than were received last Friday, when the second-most number of votes were counted.

On Saturday, Travis County surpassed the number of early votes recorded during the entire early voting period in the 2004 presidential primaries. Already 9.5 percent of registered voters have cast ballots in early voting this year, compared with the 6.1 percent of registered voters who participated in 2004.

83% of early voters in Travis are choosing to vote Democratic ballot. No surprise there.

:bounce:

Sonia

[TexasLady]

6. heres a link to my county

http://www.bellcountytx.com/BEV/CSTMR/Daily%20Early%20Voter%20Report.htm

I especially like Killeen's numbers for Dem turnout! That's more or less Ft. Hood!

[sonias]

9. Killeen looks very good

Belton, and Salado - not so good. Harker Heights is neck and neck although there are more Ds right now.

What is FPCA? Do you know?


Sonia

[TexasLady]

12. Here is what I found

FPCA is apparently to do with the military in Killeen/Ft Hood.Here is what I found online..

If you are temporarily outside the U.S., you may use a Federal Postcard Application (FPCA) form to register. The FPCA forms are distributed through U.S. embassies and military bases. A Michigan resident who moves and registers out of state may not re-register to vote in Michigan until he or she reestablishes residency here.



But I am still happy with the turnout of Dems in Belton and Salado. Belton is very small, lots of rural folks, and VERY Bush country. Salado is a retirement community. It is usually a small small turnout for Dems at all here!

[sonias]

14. Thank you

Well that is interesting that the military that supposedly is solid republican is voting at least 41 percent in the Democratic primary via those FPCA forms.

Oh I agree that the turnout of Ds in Salado and Belton are good considering how red that area is.

:applause:


Sonia

[Longhorn]

7. I had to wait 30 minutes to vote today in Dripping Springs.

This was at 3:30!! I heard that the people about ten minutes ahead of me had to wait an hour! We have fewer locations for early voting in Hays County. I waited a long time to vote early in the 2004 GE but that was on a Saturday. I'm just glad I didn't wait until March 4!

[sonias]

8. 30 minute wait - oh my

Can you imagine what it's going to be like on election day?

Glad you did get to early vote Longhorn!

Sonia

[Longhorn]

10. Mr. Longhorn just got back

and he also had to wait about 30 minutes! We both like Clinton a lot but we voted for Obama. We think the next president needs a strong mandate and even though we think Hillary could beat McCain, we think Obama will beat him even more. I felt a little sad not voting for Hillary but I would have felt a little sad not voting for Obama, too. They're both outstanding people! :)

[sonias]

11. I understand how you feel

I'm still sad about it. But we have to face facts Longhorn, this party has changed and it's time for the next generation to take over. We're following them. That's what drew me to Obama - the youth vote. I believe if they believe. And they are so organized, it's amazing. This is the new way of politics. They got game.

The other factor that did it for me was the realization that we'd already had 20 years of a Clinton or a Bush, and the country as a whole, was just not going to sign on for 4 more years of that. As much as we love our Clintons is as much as the other side hates them. They are just too divisive right now for the country.

It's like we're making an agreement - no more bushes for them and no more Clintons for us.

We still win though, because we're the party that will unite the country and we'll end this war.

And Hillary can still be proud that she made history.

:hug:

Sonia

[crispini]

13. Dallas EV totals through Tuesday

59,438 Democrats
16,493 Republicans.

Snarf.

EV just for my precinct: 265.

Ye cats. :D

[sonias]

15. SOS predicts record vote total of 3.3 for the state on 3/4

SOS press release
Secretary Wilson Predicts Record Turnout for Primary Election

For Immediate Release
February 27, 2008
Contact: Scott Haywood or Ashley Burton
512/ 463-5770

AUSTIN – Texas Secretary of State Phil Wilson announced Wednesday that turnout for the March 4 primary election will likely reach a record number for Texas. Based on turnout in early voting, Secretary Wilson projects an overall turnout of 26% of the registered voters in Texas.

"The number of voters participating in the Texas primaries is greater than anything we have seen before," Wilson said. "If the voting trends continue through Election Day, Texas will set a record for turnout in a primary election with 3.3 million Texans casting a ballot."

The previous record in Texas was set in the 1988 Presidential Primary election with more than 2.7 million Texans turning out to vote. As of Tuesday, more than 680,000 Texans had already voted in early voting, more than doubling the turnout seen in 2004. Due to the high turnout expected, Secretary Wilson is encouraging Texans to take advantage of the last two days of early voting.

"It is exciting to see people of both parties energized about participating in the democratic process in our state," Wilson added. "And because of the high turnout, I would encourage Texans to take advantage of the convenience of early voting and avoid the lines that may be encountered on Election Day."

Avoid the lines (or the longer lines on election day), vote early!


Sonia