First post-election poll: Con 36%, Lib 25%, NDP 24%

[Minstrel Boy]

I expected the trend to reflect Liberal buyer regret, but not such a bounce for the NDP.

Early controversy hasn't hurt Tory support, poll suggests


OTTAWA (CP) - The Conservatives would win another minority and the NDP would gain at the expense of the Liberals if Canadians had a chance to redo the Jan. 23 election, a new poll suggests.

The Decima Research survey of 1,010 adult Canadians, conducted between Feb. 9 and 13, suggests there has been no significant change in national support for the Tories.

Thirty-five per cent of respondents said they would vote Conservative, compared with 36 per cent who cast ballots on election day.

The poll put support for the Liberals at 25 per cent, down five percentage points from Jan. 23.

Twenty-four per cent of respondents backed the NDP, up from 17.5 per cent election day.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=0e9038b4-d9d2-4975-9ea5-950e92118384&k=22699

[Minstrel Boy]

1. Decima's Bruce Anderson:

"Finally, the NDP number confirms yet again that the NDP enjoys a bigger opportunity than they have in the past, because of effective leadership communications and a fiscal situation that makes more NDP policy ideas seem affordable."

[Minstrel Boy]

2. Ontario numbers: NDP 31, Con 30, Lib 29

Okay, so it's four weeks too late and who knows how early, but still - I like it.

[tuvor]

3. Why can't you just accept the fact...

...that the NDP will not form the next government?

:evilgrin:

[AX10]

4. Not good.

[Bragi]

5. Libs+NDP = Neocon Win / United Centre Left = Neocon Defeat

[Minstrel Boy]

6. Once again, no.

Political arithmatic doesn't work like that.

It'll be fun to watch your gymnastics when the NDP again passes the Liberal Party nationally, and you're still calling for New Democrats to pack it in and become Liberals.

Face it, you're a partisan. Me too. No shame in it. It's just unseemly to wrap it in the flag.

[Bragi]

11. Yee Haw!

Mirthful Minstrel wrote:

It'll be fun to watch your gymnastics when the NDP again passes the Liberal Party nationally, and you're still calling for New Democrats to pack it in and become Liberals.

This about sums it up for NDP stalwarts, I guess. After 40 years of electoral floundering, they truly believe, as only true believers can, that someday soon, Canadians will march to the polls, arm in arm, singing Solidarity Forever, make Jack the PM, and bring in the New Jerusalem.

Indeed.

Personally, I find it comforting to note that true believers like Minstrel, fortunately, make up only a small part of the NDP vote, and a new center-left political party -- the Liberal Democratic Party of Canada -- would likely attract enough votes to defeat the neocons, and win a majority, despite the opposition of Minstrels' sectarian left.

As Anthony Wetsell points out in his excellent op-ed piece in today's Globe, this is really the only way that the newly-reunited right in Canada will be stopped. As long as the centre left vote splits, the neocons will rule Canada.

- B

[Minstrel Boy]

13. Liberals out of government just two weeks

and already apoplectic: The united right will rule Canada forever! As if the right hadn't been united before the PCs imploded in the early '90s.

As I said last week, the ease with which a Liberal Minister eases into a Conservative cabinet highlights the lie of the Grit campaign bullshit of "strategic voting" and "uniting the Left." How many people are saying Hey, I voted Liberal to stop the Conservatives - I won't make that mistake again.

[Bragi]

15. How quickly they forget

Minstrel incorrectly noted:

As if the right hadn't been united before the PCs imploded in the early '90s.

Minstrel, the right-wing vote *did* split in the 1993 election, and did so in two major ways:

- the BQ took a whole chunk of nationalist votes in Quebec that had previously voted PC, and

- Reform took 20 per cent of the vote in English Canada, some from the PCs, and some from the NDP.

The fact is that the right got bouned out after almost 10 years in power precisely because their vote was split by two minor new parties.

And the right only returned to power this year because they had finally reunited.

- B

[Minstrel Boy]

16. that's what I said

or at least what I intended to say.

That the right is united now - the Liberal Party excepted - is a return to the pre-Reform political landscape of the 20th Century. If memory serves, the Liberals won the odd election against a united conservative party.

If Liberals believe they can no longer win without digesting a resurgent NDP, maybe the Party's finally over.

[daleo]

7. I find it hard to believe the Conservatives haven't slipped.

I have deep reservations about polls nowadays.

[Minstrel Boy]

8. Actually, they probably did.

Most new governments enjoy a honeymoon period right after the election, but that's not reflected here. Maybe that's because the Conservative numbers took a hit after the Emerson appointment.

[daleo]

9. It could be that "no electoral honeymoon" is actually a hit.

But I also wonder about this:

The Conservatives polled 36% in the latest election vs 29% last time. All that really changed during the interval was that the "integrity in government" meme was pushed hard, which they benefited from. But Harper pretty much shot his foot off with Emerson, Fortier, and O'Conner. So, I tend to think they will quickly go back to their previous level of 29%, or lower. That's why this poll seems hard to credit - I thought they would have already lost that 7% bump.

[V. Kid]

10. But I can't see why that ethics bump would go to the Liberals...

...they were just voted out because of their lack of ethics. People don't forget things, that easily.

And one must remember that on the left-ish edge of Liberal support, people who'd feel comfortable voting NDP were buying into the, "stop the evil Harper Conservatives" argument, thus when Emerson defected they thought, "gee, maybe the two parties aren't that different after all and at least the NDP seems to be going somewhere." Maybe the extra six percent of people supporting the Conservatives, over 2004, are simply doing it because they feel that, sure they've stumbled out of the gate, but maybe they'll recover. I would point out that a lot of Harper's manoeuvres were designed to placate former PC'ers, and in 2000 the Canadian Alliance/PC vote totals were about 37% of the vote.

Usually, as Minstrel Boy has pointed out, the new government gets a honeymoon bounce. And it's not as if, to most people, the Conservatives got elected, and then decided to deny all women the vote or something. I mean, sure Emerson and Fortier may net Harper nothing, as both are unlikely to get elected if they run in their home ridings, or in Fortier's case, anywhere near Montreal/Laval. And yeah, this undermines what the where screaming from the roof tops in the last parliament, ethics. But again, he just got elected, and usually governments become more unpopular after a series of blunders, not just one group of them at its outset.

But nonetheless the fact that the Conservatives aren't up at 40% or something, is quite astounding historically. But again, quite predictable because of their hypocrisy. So while I'm not surprised they'd be holding those who voted for them, at least somewhat tenuously, not many other people will be willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. And I would guess that they're support would begin to sag, if they continue down the same path, as they're really starting to anger their base by going back on their word. I'd say we'd have to wait to see some more polls, and a trend, nonetheless this poll is quite interesting and not completely implausible.

[Monkeybumper]

12. You better check your facts

But nonetheless the fact that the Conservatives aren't up at 40% or something, is quite astounding historically.quote V Kid

Right of center partys rarely if ever enjoy a honeymoon much less a bounce after an election due to a left of center press.

[V. Kid]

17. Hows that?

[daleo]

14. True, it wouldn't have to go to the Liberals

In fact, at this point it would make more sense if it went to the NDP (maybe parked, maybe for real).

Good point about the (Alliance+Old Conservatives). I hadn't thought of that.