Trying to make sense of Tory landslide in Alberta

[CHIMO]

EDMONTON–It's the hot new political-thriller-howdunnit that few Albertans can be bothered to read.

Observers and pundits were shaking their heads today after Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservatives humbled one opponent, politically decertified a second and wiped out a third en route to a landslide victory in an election in which many expected the party in power would be punished.

Election officials, meanwhile, had just one question – where did everybody go?

"Is this a surprise or is this a surprise?" Doreen Barrie, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, said of the 72 seats the Tories won in the 83-seat legislature.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/309303

Has everyone confused. Wonder where Karl is?

This needs some close analysis. Especially since 20% of the voters gave the party 85% of the seats.

The parties should go through some serious analysis of the campaigns and the voting procedures.

In the end it may just be that you can't beat the money machines.

[tuvor]

1. Voter apathy and inertia.

Lowest voter turnout ever + a long, long history of majority governments = a combination that's got to be hard to beat.

[CHIMO]

2. Could Be

But usually low voter turn out is a negative for the party in power.

The analysis needs a bit more than that.

[daleo]

3. I have decided there must be some vote rigging involved

Eleven straight elections, without a change in government? Not even one minority? B.C., Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, all the Atlantic provinces and the federal government have changed parties many times since 1971. I am pretty sure that every U.S. state has changed hands in that time, too. What makes Alberta different?

If a coin keeps coming up heads, time after time, there comes a point where you have to wonder whether it is a fair coin. The Alberta system has all kinds of room for cheating - the election return officers are appointed by the government, for one thing. I just can't believe it is legitimate anymore.

[Spazito]

4. I think it is a combination of things...

voter complacency/apathy, no major issues, booming economy/jobs. This election was so far down on the radar screen for most Albertans, imo, it was almost non-existent.

[CHIMO]

5. But

The end result is it didn't appear on the radar screen.

How was the map in your poll explaining your poll area? Was it easy to ascertain your poll number?

How many people gave up not knowing their poll?

How many of the PC supporters were driven to their poll knowing their station?

It is very easy to assign it to apathy. But apathy usually affects the governing party more than the opposition.

[Spazito]

7. It wasn't apathy alone, imo, but apathy in conjunction with

complacency, no big issues arising. I had no problem re my poll area but, then again, I live in St. Albert, smaller bedroom community to Edmonton. My daughter lives in Edmonton and had no problem re knowing her polling station.

Alberta is very conservative and that will not change, imo. The Liberals here ran a very low-key campaign as did the Conservatives which, in the end, meant status quo was fine. The fact that the Conservatives actually gained seats was interesting, though, but I think that had more to do with the Liberal lackluster campaign than anything else.

[Mother Jones]

6. I keep reading

that the political landscape in Alberta is changing, due to progressive labourers from out East....waiting with baited breath but this does not offer hope that it will happen anytime soon. Sigh.