Ohio Provisional Vote Tally FINAL!

[righteous1]

88/88 Bush + 61,505 Kerry + 79,482 Diff:17,977

[briemann]

1. Please tell me that this means

RECOUNT!!!

[MrUnderhill]

3. Not from this... no. Not an "automatic" recount.

But the process will be underway shortly regardless.

[SittingInTheMiddle]

89. No, it doesn't...

Unfortunately I had this one pegged - I said Kerry would pick up "10,000-20,000 max" on the provisionals (see the original ohio provisionals thread...). That would theoretically bring it down to about a 114,000 vote difference...

That is still about 100,000 votes short of triggering an automatic recount...

[Snivi Yllom]

2. it's over

120,000 vote margin = 2% win = 8 times the 0.25% margin trigger for a recount

[berniew1]

93. Voter Suppression: Stealing Votes in Columbus & Cleveland (doc.)

Voter Suppression: STEALING VOTES IN COLUMBUS

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/columbus.htm

The Free Press on Election Day posted a disturbing story, later confirmed by the Columbus Dispatch. The Free Press reported that Franklin County Board of Elections Director Matt Damschroder deliberately withheld voting machines from predominantly black Democratic wards in Columbus, and dispersed some of the machines to affluent suburbs in Franklin County. Damschroder is the former Executive Director of the Franklin County Republican Party. Sources close to the Board of Elections told the Free Press that Damschroder and Ohio’s Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell met with President George W. Bush in Columbus on Election Day. The idea was to discourage turnout in Democratic wards by forcing voters to wait in long lines at the polling places. Such a strategy would be far more effective than encouraging turnout in Republican wards. Elections are all about margins. There are 74 wards in Columbus. George W. Bush won 12 wards, with a margin of 7.35%. John F. Kerry won 62 wards, with a margin of 37.62%. Affecting Kerry’s turnout would greatly reduce his margin of victory in Columbus, giving the Republicans a much better chance of overtaking Kerry given a strong enough showing in suburban and small town Republican strongholds.

In order to investigate this matter, I obtained from the Franklin County Board of Elections all the data I needed in order to calculate, ward by ward, and precinct by precinct: (1) The ratio of registered voters per voting machine. (2) Percent turnout, calculated as total ballots cast divided by the number of registered voters. (3) Percent for Kerry, calculated as votes cast for Kerry divided by votes cast for president. (4) Margin of victory or defeat for Kerry, calculated as the difference between the vote totals for Kerry and Bush.

All 36 of the wards at the bottom of the list of voters per voting machine were won by Kerry, and they include most of his strongholds. In 29 of the 36 wards, Kerry exceeded his city wide share of 62.22% of the vote. However, these wards suffered a low voter turnout.It is important to understand what these numbers mean. The polls in Ohio were open from 6:30 A.M. to 7:30 P.M. That is 13 hours, or 780 minutes. If there are 400 registered voters per voting machine, and turnout is 60%, each voter has less than 3.5 minutes to vote, and that is assuming a steady stream of voters, with no rushes at certain hours. It also assumes no challenges to voters at the polls. If there are 550 registered voters per voting machine, and the turnout is 60%, each voter has 2.4 minutes. All of this amounts to theft of votes. It has been shown above that the Kerry precincts enjoyed a voter turnout similar to that of the Bush precincts when supplied with enough voting machines.

Thus I conclude that the withholding of voting machines from predominantly Democratic wards in the City of Columbus cost John Kerry upwards of 17,000 votes. A more detailed calculation could be done on a precinct by precinct basis, but that is not necessary here. The purpose is to illustrate the magnitude of the conspiracy. Matt Damschroder did not act alone. There are 74 wards and 472 precincts in Columbus, Ohio. It is not possible for one person to have delivered all the voting machines, and it is unlikely that nobody else was involved in planning where to deliver them. Anyone who associated with Mr. Damschroder on or shortly before Election Day should be investigated for possible complicity. Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. 4 Fisher Street Canton, New York 13617 [phone] [e-mail]

Stealing Votes in Cleveland

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/cleveland.htm

Indications of possible ballot box stuffing in Warren County, Ohio

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/warren.htm

Favoritism in the Suburbs

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/suburbs.htm

Analysis Indicates Kerry could win Ohio with a "fair process" and fair vote count

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/uncounted.htm

[righteous1]

4. Bush Final margin after the provisional votes is 118,506 n/t

[Imajika]

5. Is that total the provisional and absentee ballots?

[righteous1]

6. Yes, both n/t

[OKthatsIT]

7. Could someone compare county by county election results

for 2000 and 2004 in Ohio?

[fliesincircles]

8. Gore won in 16 counties in 2000

* won 72. In 2004 Kerry won 16 counties, * won 72. The only difference is Stark county went for Kerry in 2004 which Gore lost in 2000. And * won in Clark county in 2004 which gore had won in 2000.

[righteous1]

129. bump

[Eloriel]

16. You might find some data in here

Esp. the last link (which would be easier to wade through):

VOTE FRAUD LINKS - A DU Compendium - Thread #4
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=201&topic_id=6166&mesg_id=6166

VOTE FRAUD LINKS - A DU Compendium - Thread #3
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=201x4927

VOTE FRAUD Links Compendium - Thread #2
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=201x3223

VOTE FRAUD Links - a DU Compendium
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=201&topic_id=1984#


The BEST of the DU Analyses (KEEP KICKED PLEASE!)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=97510#97805

[righteous1]

55. kick

[democraticinsurgent]

11. it's down to a hand recount

and that's not to say that it's great news. many thought kerry would win many more of the provisionals than bush, looks like his margin was pretty thin.

that said, there are what, 93,000 spoiled ballots out there, which would likely be more in Kerry's favor than the provisionals were.

a thorough hand recount is the only way Kerry could turn it around.

[berniew1]

94. There are obvious irregularities known about that hand count will catch

And also indications of major irregularities and likely fraud that could mean very large number of votes.

Strong indications of major electronic glitches or fraud in Ohio in several counties (rural and suburban counties)

In analyzing the still-unofficial results, the totals reveal that C. Ellen Connally, an African-American Democratic candidate from Cleveland running for Ohio Chief Justice, received more than votes than Kerry in many counties. For example in Butler County, Connally received 5347 more votes than Kerry. The list of the counties where Connally actually outpolled Kerry include Auglaize, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Darke, Highland, Mercer, Miami, Putnam, Shelby, Van Wert, and Warren.

The reason the Kerry vote counts are suspect is because Connelly, a retired African-American judge, was vastly outspent in her race, and did not have the visibility of the presidential race. Thus for a more obscure Democratic candidate, farther down on the ticket, to get many more votes statewide than Kerry, suggests something happened to suggest there may have been a transfer of Kerry votes to Bush. ""Statistically, Kerry, as the Democratic presidential candidate, should have more votes than Connally. In a presidential election, most voters have the priority of casting a vote for president and the votes for president are almost always much higher than those of candidates farther down the ticket. As of election night, 5,481,804 votes were counted for Bush and Kerry. 4,327,270 votes were counted for Moyer and Connally.

""This looks like a computer glitch or a computer fix,"" said Bob Fitrakis, a lawyer, political scientist and Editor of the Columbus Free Press (http://freepres.org) who has written about election irregularities since Bush was declared the winner. Fitrakis is among the team of lawyers who announced they would soon file an election challenge in the state’s Supreme Court.

*******************************************************************************

Warren County, Ohio: most successful voter registration drive in American political history, or stuffing the ballot box
Warren County, a traditional Republican stronghold northeast of Cincinnati, came to national attention on election night. While the nation awaited returns from Ohio, the state that would decide the election, county officials locked down the administrative building and prohibited all independent observers from watching the vote count.

An analyst who has all the vote data for 2000 and 2004 by precinct in several Ohio counties did a detailed analysis by precinct of the huge increase in Bush votes and margin in Warren county. This county first did a lockdown to count the votes, then apparently did another lockdown to recount the votes later- resulting in an even bigger Bush margin and very unusual new patterns.

Several very unusual patterns were evident in the history and the vote totals by precinct. The analyst concludes:

"George W. Bush’’s big win in Warren County was due to one of two things –– one of the most successful voter registration drives in American political history, or stuffing the ballot box. If the vote was legitimate, the records will show it. There will be a signature in a different handwriting for every one of the 16,803 newly registered voters, and for every one of the 95,512 ballots cast. If the vote was not legitimate, there will be a shortage of punch cards in the ballot box, or duplicate handwriting on the voter rolls, or fewer registered voters than reported." http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/warren.htm

Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. 4 Fisher Street Canton, NY 13617 [phone]

Other counties and likely Kerry win in recount with fair rules: http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm

www.flcv.com/ohiov04.html

(these URLs are not hyperlinked, you have to mark and paste them into browser) (web site is hyperlinked)

[bearfan454]

30. They(repukes) stole way more votes than that with electronic vote fraud

Let's demand a recount Mr. Kerry.

[Patsy Stone]

36. See, that's hot.

So, that's complete and what will be certified? Are all counties reported, for all kinds of ballots, and listed as they planned to be certified? Just trying to keep the numbers in my head from falling out. Thanks.

[shesemsmom]

9. Is that it

is it over.....please don't say it is

[righteous1]

10. Just to put this in perspective

There are 93,000 over/undervotes that would be looked at in a recount. Unfortunately there are probably not a lot of hidden Kerry votes there. If Florida (2000) is an indication, only 7% of there UV ended up having a discernable presidential vote on them. So if that model holds true a total of 6500 additional votes could be gleened from them x 60% Kerry 40% Bush = 1300 net vote increase for Kerry. Virtually no help at all

[shesemsmom]

13. Thanks for you help

I was kinda afraid of that

[righteous1]

72. kick

[spoogly]

12. Did they certify the Gahanna 3,800 votes?

or was that number removed from the precinct? If they did, the actual total should be reduced by that amount.

Picking up another 20,000 from the 93,000 spoiled ballot would put total at around 100,000 difference.

It has been estimated that 17,000 votes may have been lost in Franklin County alonr due to inadequate numbers of voting machines. If 6 times that were lost statewide, Kerry would win the election.

Also must consider the Warren County problems and other irregularities.

Also consider the challenge arguments on the irregularities in the Supreme Court vote when compared to Presidential race votes.

It starts to look like the outcome of those claims, if successfully argued, would be enough to change the result of the election, which augments the argument that a preliminary injunction could issue.

A long shot granted. But it is not time to give up yet.

[righteous1]

14. The 3800 votes to which you

refer are reflected in the final Franklin county tally. Kerry picked up 7171 total of which ~3800 were the 3800 double counted votes that were misappropriated on election night

[pointsoflight]

29. I think the post is referring to the 3893-vote "glitch"

This is the glitch in Gahanna, not the double count in Franklin.

[Jersey Devil]

15. So is the total difference now 111,000?

with the 4000 or so extra votes also deducted?

[righteous1]

17. The final Bush lead is 118, 506

that is will all known anomalies accounted for

[rehema]

18. What Happened to Athens County 2500 provisonal ballots

[righteous1]

20. They are in the total

B 935 K 1628

[KatieB]

74. Where do you see this? Show the link

[wiggs]

19. For those hoping that Ohio would flip....

....it was not anticipated that the flip would happen because of provisionals and spoiled ballots.

If many at DU are correct, the hand count will differ from the reported vote totals. That's where the fraud lies.

It is not over. Certification of provisionals had to happen first in order to start the hand recount. It is good that it finished on time and wasn't delayed.

[Imajika]

21. Does a recount = handcount?

I had thought that the recount was not necessarily a handcount. Personally, I don't believe it will make any significant difference either way, but a handcount would certainly be better than just running them through the machines again.

Are you sure there is a planned hand count? I was still under the impression that this was just a recount. Basically, running the votes through the machines and tallying them up a second time.

Imajika

[righteous1]

23. Hand count of the under/ over vote

machine recount of the others i believe is the plan

[glitch]

51. Oh no - I was hoping for hand recount of all votes to compare to machine

count. We want to test the machine accuracy, running votes through again won't accomplish that.

[righteous1]

52. They may spot check in some precincts

But the cost of hand counting 5.5 million ballots would be millions and would take several weeks

[PATRICK]

25. Harris in 2000

refused to recount the machine scanned ballots. I don't know if they EVER turned up again in the hand recounts but the clock definitely ran down to the SCOTUS punt. If that latter is not happening AND they can force Blackwell(or get Blackwell out) to hand count EVERYTHING that would be a double plus to eliminate most of the possible fraud.

It still does not address the civil rights and suppression issue or the distribution of machinery and new voting places- to name a few. If like Gore, Kerry blows off the later to try for the hand recount he would, like Gore, be sacrificing legitimate cause for a gamble on what is left. Which shows not nearly enough has been learned or gained since 2000.

However Blackwell is still active and the clock still ticking, the rigged game still not really challenged.

The media is not even here doing their pathetic job at discouraging people from knowing what they are actually seeing. Small loss really. Kerry did not miss them in Iowa either.

[googly]

27. The Florida ballots in the disputed 4 counties was hand counted

by 3 or 4 newspapers/TV media independently, besides the
election officials, and none of them flipped Florida. And
in Florida the difference was in the neighborhood of 500
votes. I am not holding my breath in Ohio-2004 recount knowing
we are 118,000 votes behind as it stands now.

[eomer]

102. Not true!

The media group recount that you refer to did flip Florida.

NORC, out of the University of Chicago, conducted the study. They examined all of the undervote and overvote ballots. They built a database containing each ballot and the counters' interpretation of the chads (punch cards) and marks (optical scan).

Once the database was built, they ran nine scenarios as to which counties were counted according to which standard. They multiplied these nine scenarios times two agreement criteria (majority vs. unanimous) for a total of eighteen possible results.

Of these eighteen possible ways the vote could have been recounted, Bush won seven and Gore won eleven.

Specifically, Bush won if the recount that Gore requested would have been finished (four counties).

Gore won if you recounted the whole state.

The whole-state recount is the most important scenario, at least to me, because it is the one that gets to the heart of the question - who won if every legitimate voter's vote was counted.

But even if you don't agree with that assessment, you have to admit that the statements being floated around that the NORC recount showed that Bush won Florida in 2000 are, at best, misleading because they forget to tell you that Gore won in more than half the scenarios, including the one where the whole state was recounted.

Here's the home page for the NORC recount project:
http://www.norc.uchicago.edu/fl/index.asp

[rehema]

22. kick

[theboss]

24. So, that's that

I guess Kerry knew what he was talking about when he said the provisionals wouldn't change things much.

[righteous1]

26. To be honest with you folks

They are going to have to show some real, bonafide, and massive fraud to change this thing

[theboss]

28. That's my thinking

You don't find 100,000 votes in the seat cushions.

[crispini]

31. Yep, you are correct.

Although didn't somebody (CASE-OH?) file a lawsuit to try to disallow the whole election because of the long lines?

[righteous1]

34. The Supreme Court challenge

is a possibility, but highly unlikely. The makeup of the court is 5R 2D and the liklihood of them overturning an election result on what has been thusfar mostly anectdotal evidence is pretty remote

[briemann]

33. My eyes are filling with tears as I write this.

We can't endure 4 more years. The world can't. Why does the nation not understand this?

[smartvoter]

39. You are right. We need to shift 59,000 over. That's no small task.

No matter how you slice it.

[righteous1]

123. kick

[KatieB]

75. Watch the C-SPAN link - apparently they've found that kind of fraud

Click below link and then on Washington Journal with today's date (12/2/04) GO 34.01 minutes into the video. Armeck says they are suing and once "you correct for irregularities" the "results will flip and favor Kerry.

http://www.c-span.org/homepage.asp?Cat=Series&Code=WJE&ShowVidNum=6&Rot_Cat_CD=WJ&Rot_HT=205&Rot_WD=

[Visiongirl]

32. details on provisional counting...

just wanted to direct those who wanted more info to:

http://ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com/

[KatieB]

80. Look at link -- does not add up correctly. 573 ballots and 575 for Bush?

Auglaize Co:

According to elections officials, 573 provisional ballots were okayed out of 650 cast. The results are Bush +575, Kerry +171

[Ronbrynaert]

99. Many of the numbers on that website don't add up

That's why I've always treated it with skepticism:

Allen Co:
1,098 provisional ballots were okayed out of 1,326 cast. The results are Bush +956, Kerry +661 ....

the results add up to 1617.

Ashland Co:

According to elections officials, 522 provisional ballots were okayed out of 631 cast. The results are Bush +345, Kerry +210

The results add up to 555.

Athens Co:

According to elections officials, 2,210 provisional ballots were okayed out of 2,541 cast. The results are Bush +935, Kerry +1,628

The results add up to 2563

And so on...and so on...

[righteous1]

107. The difference is most likely overseas absantee ballots n/t

[Wordie]

35. kick

[VAMom]

37. But what about the 93,000

overvotes? They are going to recount those right?

[righteous1]

38. see post # 10 on this thread it's explained n/t

[ignatzmouse]

40. Punch cards may have manually controlled error rates

Punch card counts can be off significantly and are highly subject to operator control when tabulating and have exceeded 10% in some cases. Results can be changed according to how well the cards are aligned, how many are stacked, how much hand pressure is applied to the top of the stack, weight of card stock and color. There are a LOT of punch card counties in Ohio. For instance if an operator wanted to get poor results from a Democratic county, he might run a batch through once using any of the variables known to get a high error rate. Whereas if he didn't get a solid read from a Republican precinct, he might run the batch several times until he got a high read rate. Beyond the punch cards, there are optical scan counties with their own read problems.

Add to that what I suspect may prove to be a high absentee fraud correlation on Republican registrations, and there is ample room. Does anyone have figures on absentee counts and monthly voter registration figures for Ohio?

[righteous1]

41. There is one immutable fact we have to contend with folks

I have been hesitant to post this, but now that any win coming from the provisionals is academic, I feel it's time. The vote will be certified no later than Dec. 6th. Any recount cannot occur untill after certification. This is why the judges decision upholding that law was so devastating: The slate of electors must selected no later than (6) days prior to the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December per Bush vs Gore SCOTUS (December 7th) anything occuring after that Dec 7th date (will have no legal effect) in other words as of the Dec 7th date the electors are "carved in stone" It goes without saying that a recount cannot occur in 24 hours. Usual time for a recount to be accomplished is 2 weeks. I guess to put it in the simplest terms, barring a miracle, we are screwed

[demo dutch]

44. Yes but the electoral votes are not certified until Jan 6 in

congress. It takes 1 rep from the house and 1 senator to contest. Remember that Gore presided over the 2000 fiasco when reps from the house read their complaints and not one senator came forward.
However unless major problems turn up during the recount, and remember when all was set and done with the 2000 recount in Fla the difference was brought down to 529 votes, I doubt that politicians will come forward and risk their career on Jan 6th

[righteous1]

47. But Bush vs Gore SCOTUS changed all that

The slate of electors on Dec 7th is INVIOLATE per the Supreme Court decision of 2000

[righteous1]

67. kick

[KittyWampus]

83. The Supreme Court Said That Decision Was NOT PRECEDENT

[Samantha]

95. So how come Hawaii came in late in 2000 and

its votes were still counted.

The Supreme Court also said that opinion only applied to that case.

And the Slate of Electors must be chosen on election day. They are chosen reflecting the party of the winner of the popular vote. If Kerry overturned the popular vote, the State of Ohio would be obligated to send a Democratic slate to the Electoral College. It could not change its state constitution after the day of the election. Before, yes. After, no. Read David Boies on the subject.

[righteous1]

48. I will attempt to find that entire SCOTUS decision

and post it on here

[shraby]

58. The Supremes said their ruling was NOT to be

used as a precident.

[righteous1]

60. True, but do you think any federal court in the land

would rule any differently, highly unlikely. But just for the sake of argument. Lets say that the electors were "up for grabs" untill Dec 13, which is when they actually are submitted to Congress. That is the absolute point of no return. Blackwell certifies on Dec 6th. A recount is asked for same day, Ohio has 5 days to answer the request and put the machinery of a recount in order. That brings you to Dec 12, there is just no way to do a recount in 24 hours. A machine recount would take 1.5-2 weeks. A hand recount, twice that long. To me it appears to be an exercise in futility, it just cannot be done in time to have any "legal effect"

[NOWMDNOGWB]

42. lead cut to 97,000 or so with 98% in

[righteous1]

43. I am not sure what your watching, but we have

had the final results for well over an hour. Go to the beginning of page to get up to speed

[NOWMDNOGWB]

45. sorry just in between jobs at work and

looked at the other ohio post of results total...should have read entire

[mostly_lurking]

46. The final numbers are known (Bush +120K)

The Ohio website is updating the final numbers. With 98% done, 3 counties remain (they all lean Republican). The 97K lead you see will grow to the 120K number.

[keepthemhonest]

49. only a

96000 diffference right now with about 98% in:bounce:

[bemis12]

50. The 3 counties not reflected

favor Bush by around 22,000, resulting in the final margin of 118,000 +.

[keepthemhonest]

53. oh bummer

;( this is still good though right?

[bemis12]

54. It's better

but not really good.

They'll certify it Bush +118,000 instead of 136,000.

[keepthemhonest]

56. what is the outlook on

the recount ,what are the theories of how we are going to take votes there? are they going to be hand counting or what?

[righteous1]

57. Realistically i just don't see

where they can possibly pick up a quantity of additional Kerry votes. A few here and there, but 118,500; That is an astranomical hill to climb.

[keepthemhonest]

59. it looks like the final is 126,925 n/t

[mostly_lurking]

64. That number will drop back to 118K

Once the OH SOS site restores the numbers from Athens county. Kerry won Athens by 9000 votes or so. The numbers for Athens are all zeroes for some reason (although it still shows 100%).

[Donailin]

128. unless they find that 'glitch' that assigned Kerry votes to Bush

on a mass scale, no?

The questions posed by the judiciary comittee focus on that particular issue, which I'm glad to see.

[Yupster]

61. Your theory question Keepthem

reminded me of an anectdote from history.

On the flight from Richmond to Appomattox, General Robert E Lee was talking to General John Wise, who was in his sixties, and was a former Governor of Virginia.

General Lee asked him "What do you think of the situation?"

Wise answered "There is no situation. Nothing remains general Lee but to put your poor men on their poor mules and send them home in time for spring ploughing (sic)"

Lee answered "oh General don't talk so wildly. My burdens are heavy enough. What would the country think of me if I did as you suggest?"

Wise answered "Country be damned! There is no country. There has been no country for a year or more. You're the country to these men..."

Lee surredered his army two days later.

[righteous1]

62. I think i am beginning to

understand how Wise felt

[Yupster]

65. I wonder if we still have generals like John Wise

General Lee was more influencial and beloved than any general in American history by his army and his country. Yet there were men like General Wise who would get in his face and tell them their honest truth.

I'm sure General Lee was benefitted greatly by their honesty.

I wonder if we still have generals who would do that today.

BTW -- General Lee also warned him not to be so defeatist. He could be shot for that. Wise yelled back Shot? Go ahead and shoot me. Some Yankee probably will in the next 24 hours anyway.

[righteous1]

66. Sometimes i believe

there can be a fine line between not being defeatist and being delusional

[keepthemhonest]

68. I am not giving up

even if the election is not over turned.

[Blue in the face]

63. kick

[Kralizec]

69. Sorry if I missed, but has anyone thought about the Military vote? nt

[righteous1]

70. Thats in the totals already n/t

[KatieB]

82. How do you know this?

[righteous1]

84. The Ohio SOS has the totals on there site

They are complete totals: Jan 2nd vote, absantee, provisional votes, military, and oversea absentee ballots are all included. The tallys thats they display will be the ones they certify Monday Dec 6th

[righteous1]

71. FINAL: The absolute final total margin is Bush + 118,775

[rodeodance]

79. can you give the link please?

[righteous1]

85. Link

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP

[Ronbrynaert]

100. Something Fishy Going On

According to this list of turn out in Ohio...there were 5,574,476 votes for President....

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/11-02-04.htm

According to the new link there are 5,625,631 votes.

An extra 51, 155 votes are now included.

I guess they could be absentee ballots...but shouldn't those number have been included with the first list?


Then there's the fact that Cobb only received 24 votes statewide before the provisionals...but now he's got 373 votes...that's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard of...the probability of that happening is off the charts.

[Ronbrynaert]

130. Cobb Lost Votes

Now the new tally (http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP ) shows Cobb with 186 votes...which is still ridiculous considering he only had 24 votes before the provisional count.

[KatieB]

73. ATHENS COUNTY IS STILL NOT SHOWING!

[righteous1]

76. Don't worry, it will, figure Kerry + 8500 when it does

[righteous1]

78. correction + 8150 getting blurry eyed looking at these figures

[rodeodance]

77. Cnn will be talking about this on Inside Politics --coming up

[righteous1]

81. cubicle bound, please post anything of interest

[bones_7672]

86. kick

[dmac]

87. But of course,

did anyone expect the "official" numbers to be closer? I think the fraud in Ohio is going to be the hardest to prove because it was done mostly through disenfranchisement of voters. The disenfranchisement there was rampant across the board. And the case for fraud will have to be built on this I think. Some of you may have already seen this on another thread, but this article is excellent in reflecting the lengths they went to, to keep voters from voting and details paint a pretty revealing picture. But are they proof? A smart attorney could do a lot with this I think.

http://www.dldewey.com/columns/votes04f.htm

[righteous1]

88. The trouble with anectdotal evidence is courts

are usually not moved by it

[bones_7672]

90. You got that. n/t

[Carolab]

103. No

there were repeated instances of vote shifting that indicate a pattern

[Zan_of_Texas]

131. There is strong evidence of machine malfunction in Cleveland.....

Read the Juan Gonzalez article -- voters in black precincts in Cleveland were voting for the Constitutional candidate????? In numbers rather large?

This is not plausible, and is evidence of machine flaw or fraud.

Ohio tally fit for Ukraine
Voter fraud in the Ukraine? Give me a break.

by Juan Gonzalez (Democracy Now co-host)
New York Daily News
November 30, 2004
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/story/257365p-220441c.html

It has been a month now and we still don't have a clear count of the votes for our own presidential race from the state of Ohio. For those who may have forgotten, Ohio supposedly assured George W. Bush a second term in the White House - only the most important job on the planet. The morning after the election, we were told Bush was ahead of John Kerry in that state's unofficial count by 139,000 votes, or 2.5%. At the time there were 155,000 uncounted provisional ballots and an unknown number of overseas ballots, but Kerry concluded they would not produce enough of a margin to erase his deficit, so he promptly conceded.

<snip>

We learned, for example, that an additional 93,000 voters had gone to the polls yet machines had registered no preference of theirs for President. Only a manual recount can tell us for sure what happened to those 93,000 ballots. Then, red-faced election officials in Franklin County admitted a computer error on Election Night had tallied 4,258 votes for Bush in a precinct where only 638 people voted. That correction alone will drop Bush's margin by 3,620.

And now Daily News reporter Larry Cohler-Esses and I have uncovered some more unusual vote totals, this time in black neighborhoods of Cleveland. Those results are from the precinct-by-precinct tallies released by the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections, where Cleveland is located.

In the 4th Ward on Cleveland's East Side, for example, two fringe presidential candidates did surprisingly well. In precinct 4F, located at Benedictine High School on Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, Kerry received 290 votes, Bush 21 and Michael Peroutka, candidate of the ultra-conservative anti-immigrant Constitutional Party, an amazing 215 votes!

MORE

[AnIndependentTexan]

91. Question

Kerry can win a Provisional Vote Tally but when machines do the vote he can not win? How did Kerry with the Provisional Vote?

[righteous1]

92. The Kerry campaign believed that he would get a very high %

of the provisionals in Ohio, they said just that on election night. I believe that it is a general thunb rule that the Dem candidate will get the lion share of provisionals. But as it turned out JK did get a majority of the provisionals but a modest majority, not the 70/30 or better that the Kerry campaign envisioned

[ahyums]

96. that's 43.62% for Bush and 56.37% for Kerry of the provisionals

which I think means there is still a pretty decent chance that the recount will show a different result. It certainly keeps the fraud/ error chances alive.

[Yupster]

97. Kerry got almost 90 %

of the African-American vote too. He also did very well on college campuses and among first time voters. Those stats prove a recount would show a Kerry win. ..... I guess?

[GetTheRightVote]

98. This is proving that if the vote had not been suppressed kerry

would have much higher numbers and still would have won the Ohio state election. I am glad they are challenging the election in Ohio.

[Yupster]

120. CNN says

11 % of all voters were African-American. Isn't that just about the national percentage of African-Ameican citizens?

[read the law first]

104. below 90% of African American vote is down from prior years

We usually bank around 95 -96 % of the African American vote

[righteous1]

108. 13% countrywide is the concensus n/t

[politicasista]

125. He did and probably more.

I don't believe that media garbage about Smirky getting 16% of the AA vote.

[americanwoman]

101. Some interesting County "just new" vote tallies...

Three counties where new votes were split exactly:

Lake +542 each.
Columbiana at +1578 each.
Harrison at -44 each. (Don't know why the negative numbers but ...)


A county that stands out from the rest is Franklin at Kerry 70.29% and Bush 22.8%. Also Clark with Kerry 58.77% and Bush 40.89%.

[righteous1]

105. Negative numbers usually are correcting

over or double counted ballots on election night

[righteous1]

106. I guess i don't really understand your reasoning n/t

[ahyums]

109. for much of the count Bush was in front of Kerry

and I was increasingly disappointed because it looked to me as though that meant that the figures on election night were probably largely accurate and it was unlikely anything would change with a recount. I then thought about it and realized that there is no reason that the provisionals should massively shift to Kerry (although I think you would expect some shift) and even a relatively small percentage change would be enough to give Kerry the state and indeed the nationwide vote if repeated in several states. The point being that a 14% gap between Bush and Kerry more than keeps the hope of that alive.

Had the provisional count ended and Bush was still leading Kerry in that count, or if Kerry had gone ahead 51% to 49% let's say on the provisionals I would've thought that there was pretty much no chance of a changed results, because they would have mimicked the original results too closely. The final count changes that.

[righteous1]

110. Refer to post #92 for my take

[ahyums]

111. but I think the argument that there would a huge number of Democrats

challenged as opposed to Republicans was later debunked- it might not have been but that was my impression. I do agree that I would have expected a slight trend towards Kerry in the provisionals but I think that 14% between the candidates provides ample scope for the possibility that something was awry on election night.

[righteous1]

112. Actually the difference was 7.63% n/t

[righteous1]

113. I don't know if theres too much to read into this

Generally, overseas absantee ballots tend to run about +10% for republicans and provisionals tend to run about the same % for democrats.

[ahyums]

114. oh are my calculations wrong then?

if the total number of provisionals counted for Bush and Kerry =

61,505 + 79,482 = 140,987

Bush : 61,505 as a percentage of 140,987 = 43.625%

Kerry: 79,482 as a percentage of 140,987 = 56.375%

56.375-43.625 = 12.75

Which means that the difference was 12.75% (or is my maths failing me completely?)

[righteous1]

115. Go to the top of page, and click on the link, they have it broken out

[ahyums]

116. oh right they have the same percentages I have

that 7% is referring to the difference from the count on election night.

[righteous1]

117. Correct n/t

[Yupster]

118. But ahyums

Provisional voters are not a random sample of voters.

They are people who were confused where to go to vote, or people who registered very late and didn't get their name on the roll in time, etc.

Since Kerry and especially the 527 groups backing him made such a big push to bring young voters and new voters into the process, the Kerry camp expected the provisionals to be mostly their supporters.

They were.

There's no surprise here or nothing to read into it.

[righteous1]

122. agreed, post # 113

[ahyums]

124. it's not a case of there being a surprise, I never really claimed there

was

The point is that for me at least if the numbers had been significantly lower than this the chances of anything changing in the recount would have been pretty much zero as far as I can see. These results keep alive the possibility that the count on election night was not accurate that's all I'm saying. I also remember seeing more than one post on here explaining why the provisionals were in fact not expected to break massively, or even significantly for Kerry and that they would likely be fairly similar to election day results. They seemed pretty plausible to me although I have no idea where they are.

[november3rd]

119. I don't believe this

This has to be off

[righteous1]

121. I don't understand what you are referring to n/t

[righteous1]

126. No luck finding anything of consequence so far

http://www.mediainfo.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000731070

[bones_7672]

127. Official results, totals and totals by county

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP