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Very good point. This is something I've been trying to get out there, too: THERE ARE OTHER STATES THAT NEED TO BE LOOKED AT BESIDES JUST OHIO. And perhaps most important: THERE ARE ENOUGH ELECTORAL VOTES IN THOSE OTHER STATES TO TURN IT AROUND, TOO. People who don't live here in AR aren't familiar with what was going on here, 72 to 12 hours before the election. This state REALLY tightened up. Even our local CBS Tv station in Little Rock admitted that on election day. It was Bush 50.8, Kerry 46.4 12 hours before the election, with Kerry on a rapidly assending curve, Bush on a slightly descending one. CBS TV's KTHV here said the polls were indicating the race could be as close as "48% to 48%" according to news anchor Anne Jansen. This was based on the trend indicated, and a major league, almost sea-change that happened in this state in that final 24 hours or less: BILL CLINTON STARTED CAMPAIGNING ACTIVELY FOR KERRY HERE IN ARKANSAS. Bill Clinton is like superman around here politically. Up until now, Kerry had been able to keep Bush at a Plurality anyway, because of Edwards and because AR, WV and VA have the largest disabled vet populations of any states. Polls were showing disabled vets liked Kerry. But there seemed a gap, and the far right's having gay stuff on the ballots was getting a "and while I'm at it" Evangelical turn out to vote for Bush, so the Dems did have their work cut out for them to carry AR, which is mostly a standard Bible Belt state. But when Clinton waded in, right in that last few hours which the exit polls probably didn't even catch accurately, I could FEEL the change in the atmosphere here. The media warmed up to the idea of a close race, even, because they know that Clinton is so popular here they have to give him good press because even their advertisers' product sales can be affected if they don't. And why I am harping on this, is that AR is also the only Southern state besides Florida where Kerry occasionally led Bush in the pre-election polls BEFORE Clinton started actively campaigning for Kerry here. And, like Virginia, Louisiana and North Carolina, Bush was seldom above a Plurality here even when he led Kerry, which was 7 out of 16 times. Most of the time, it was a tie. If Arkansas were recounted, and also Iowa and either New Mexico or Nevada, and all three--AR, IA and NM--went to Kerry, that would put him at 270 Electoral votes--without either OH or FL! Clinton bridged a gap between anti-war Democrats and Vietnam veterans that had been there since the 2000 election, when Gore asked him NOT to campaign for him. Now, Gore was popular himself here, in the eastern part of the state. But Clinton, being from Hot Springs and Hope, which are in the Western part (which has a Republican tendency, recently, especially the Northwest, but Garland County, home of Clinton's Hot Springs, is somewhat Libertarian-flavored, which is why it's "interesting"), could have helped Gore last time here, too, had he done what he did this time. I think the last-minute thing, was probably the most effective thing he could have done, since it didn't give national media time to jump Clinton, and limited the coverage to to the more friendly local--but statewide--media. The only drawback, is that it's unclear whether Edwards had as dramatic an appeal in eastern AR as Gore had. In other words, was the Democratic margin in those eastern counties as wide as before? Assuming the exit poll error stuff, or not, I can pretty much tell you that the exit polls here were in error. And I believe I'd be saying this, this time, even if Professor Freemnan's study on exit polls in other states, hadn't even been there. There are a couple of other things. There were errors in statewide national races that added up to over 50,000 votes just in two counties. We had power failure in western Little Rock, in an area which is more Jewish than other Little Rock areas. I noted that New Orleans also had a power failure. As did Bouilder County, CO and Iowa. I think they said they had one in North Carolina, too. And, if I'm not mistaken, I saw a report about a power failure in Las Vegas, although I think the issue out there was more to do with a bogus "voter registration" drive.
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