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TruthIsAll
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Fri Dec-03-04 08:45 PM Original message |
| THE MORE COMPUTER GLICHES, THE HIGHER THE PROBABILITY OF FRAUD |
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Edited on Fri Dec-03-04 09:34 PM by TruthIsAll
Let's flip a coin 1000 times to see how many HEADS come up.
This is equivalent to checking 1000 BBV anomalies: Call it HEADS if the GLICH produced more votes for Bush. Call it TAILS if it produced more votes for Kerry. You would expect around 500 gliches for each, right? This is an example of The Law of Large Numbers. The more trials in a simulation, the closer we get to the theoretical probability of an event. When we FLIP a coin, the theoretical probability that it will come up HEADS is 50%. Let's see how many HEADS we get if we flip a coin 1000 times using computer simulation. We use the Excel random number RAND function. RAND returns a value between 0 and 1. If RAND is greater than or equal to .50, it's HEADS (Bush) If RAND is less than .50, it's TAILS (Kerry) THE ODDS OF 600 HEADS IN 1000 FLIPS IS ONE IN 7.3 BILLION! THE ODDS OF 700 HEADS IN 1000 FLIPS? DON'T BOTHER TO EVEN GUESS. TO PROVE IT TO YOURSELF, SET THIS PROBLEM UP IN EXCEL. KEEP PRESSING THE F9 KEY (CALC) UNTIL YOU GET 600 HEADS (OR TAILS). ARE YOU PREPARED TO TRY BILLIONS OF KEYSTROKES? THE POINT IS THIS: HAVING 600 COIN FLIPS TURNING UP HEADS IS LIKE 600 OUT OF 1000 COMPUTER GLICHES GIVING MORE VOTES TO BUSH. THAT'S WHY WE NEED TO ANALYZE THE RESULTS OF ALL REPORTED COMPUTER "GLICHES" TO SEE JUST WHO BENEFITED. QUE BONO? Here is an example of a 1000 coin flip random computer simulation. The result: 503 HEADS, 497 TAILS. What you would expect, no? Just having some fun. And hopefully making a point at the same time. N RAND Result 1 0.489110818 0 tails 2 0.768671706 1 heads 3 0.336151721 0 tails 4 0.557377582 1 heads 5 0.216561695 0 tails 6 0.063729021 0 tails 7 0.094042253 0 tails 8 0.800294049 1 heads 9 0.899177365 1 heads 10 0.032227089 0 tails 11 0.713569466 1 heads 12 0.177051648 0 tails 13 0.035566597 0 tails 14 0.510878572 1 heads 15 0.549779753 1 heads 16 0.598280223 1 heads 17 0.921394284 1 heads 18 0.224593281 0 tails 19 0.941935665 1 heads 20 0.961489468 1 heads 21 0.999389875 1 heads 22 0.219286695 0 tails 23 0.825957065 1 heads 24 0.935663178 1 heads 25 0.359394891 0 tails 26 0.828553595 1 heads 27 0.436185285 0 tails 28 0.987007105 1 heads 29 0.608102711 1 heads 30 0.38805099 0 tails 31 0.260101819 0 tails 32 0.671286875 1 heads 33 0.919729372 1 heads 34 0.873493095 1 heads 35 0.78701322 1 heads 36 0.468163808 0 tails 37 0.048086524 0 tails 38 0.469074633 0 tails 39 0.993297981 1 heads 40 0.390799106 0 tails 41 0.249343799 0 tails 42 0.016773746 0 tails 43 0.946288534 1 heads 44 0.711022912 1 heads 45 0.167346309 0 tails 46 0.719431554 1 heads 47 0.748619037 1 heads 48 0.398893976 0 tails 49 0.749068908 1 heads 50 0.817074858 1 heads 51 0.703507553 1 heads 52 0.359009903 0 tails 53 0.047587519 0 tails 54 0.568353164 1 heads 55 0.007750108 0 tails 56 0.325140843 0 tails 57 0.419541272 0 tails 58 0.526160456 1 heads 59 0.633169979 1 heads 60 0.573688696 1 heads 61 0.40801465 0 tails 62 0.323205248 0 tails 63 0.410064284 0 tails 64 0.452659252 0 tails 65 0.777837703 1 heads 66 0.355404008 0 tails 67 0.634086418 1 heads 68 0.574033755 1 heads 69 0.796834945 1 heads 70 0.92731761 1 heads 71 0.397574365 0 tails 72 0.789166949 1 heads 73 0.619937513 1 heads 74 0.617639907 1 heads 75 0.052853558 0 tails 76 0.286116965 0 tails 77 0.166040202 0 tails 78 0.892152326 1 heads 79 0.039324281 0 tails 80 0.415085879 0 tails 81 0.769740544 1 heads 82 0.833205483 1 heads 83 0.122378875 0 tails 84 0.094262319 0 tails 85 0.961563826 1 heads 86 0.729661653 1 heads 87 0.21842342 0 tails 88 0.347738304 0 tails 89 0.349214151 0 tails 90 0.8435085 1 heads 91 0.308308881 0 tails 92 0.112850587 0 tails 93 0.51694171 1 heads 94 0.09585801 0 tails 95 0.632842678 1 heads 96 0.359269503 0 tails 97 0.597114641 1 heads 98 0.474215063 0 tails 99 0.477457176 0 tails 100 0.318250817 0 tails 101 0.752600648 1 heads 102 0.502290923 1 heads 103 0.210482586 0 tails 104 0.360801689 0 tails 105 0.644711184 1 heads 106 0.919867935 1 heads 107 0.234318884 0 tails 108 0.457089466 0 tails 109 0.286975368 0 tails 110 0.596411949 1 heads 111 0.573081687 1 heads 112 0.446571163 0 tails 113 0.986722267 1 heads 114 0.810715182 1 heads 115 0.245133016 0 tails 116 0.662674856 1 heads 117 0.341090645 0 tails 118 0.062553844 0 tails 119 0.552629379 1 heads 120 0.584461506 1 heads 121 0.207775309 0 tails 122 0.772640978 1 heads 123 0.318369898 0 tails 124 0.922094461 1 heads 125 0.101033024 0 tails 126 0.456659788 0 tails 127 0.067105045 0 tails 128 0.249975528 0 tails 129 0.220988772 0 tails 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tails 172 0.739154114 1 heads 173 0.443876328 0 tails 174 0.520747231 1 heads 175 0.469879296 0 tails 176 0.895889015 1 heads 177 0.737339351 1 heads 178 0.621095274 1 heads 179 0.988010372 1 heads 180 0.461188856 0 tails 181 0.547078503 1 heads 182 0.06930935 0 tails 183 0.898450093 1 heads 184 0.889692447 1 heads 185 0.880850859 1 heads 186 0.047617251 0 tails 187 0.860345356 1 heads 188 0.663065406 1 heads 189 0.176678885 0 tails 190 0.374654572 0 tails 191 0.6938756 1 heads 192 0.763591091 1 heads 193 0.439433402 0 tails 194 0.88676788 1 heads 195 0.15867778 0 tails 196 0.585804004 1 heads 197 0.392451829 0 tails 198 0.480742016 0 tails 199 0.578662632 1 heads 200 0.257038087 0 tails 201 0.582379185 1 heads 202 0.757298867 1 heads 203 0.643503221 1 heads 204 0.056462859 0 tails 205 0.733062751 1 heads 206 0.620604253 1 heads 207 0.165698177 0 tails 208 0.533120374 1 heads 209 0.986522627 1 heads 210 0.850042938 1 heads 211 0.483019713 0 tails 212 0.947930761 1 heads 213 0.839332642 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797 0.840244748 1 heads 798 0.25499847 0 tails 799 0.551301269 1 heads 800 0.541086008 1 heads 801 0.217006779 0 tails 802 0.434905926 0 tails 803 0.422430811 0 tails 804 0.904326115 1 heads 805 0.598103889 1 heads 806 0.189621082 0 tails 807 0.479976244 0 tails 808 0.058020803 0 tails 809 0.033632753 0 tails 810 0.518589521 1 heads 811 0.279007846 0 tails 812 0.347384932 0 tails 813 0.878748254 1 heads 814 0.397926363 0 tails 815 0.246142911 0 tails 816 0.580853559 1 heads 817 0.774130366 1 heads 818 0.945650263 1 heads 819 0.442562523 0 tails 820 0.61786283 1 heads 821 0.242178682 0 tails 822 0.648166035 1 heads 823 0.849952514 1 heads 824 0.594969694 1 heads 825 0.408693342 0 tails 826 0.988637557 1 heads 827 0.620778056 1 heads 828 0.872617399 1 heads 829 0.186800352 0 tails 830 0.777585625 1 heads 831 0.879751419 1 heads 832 0.250012985 0 tails 833 0.588850176 1 heads 834 0.308908378 0 tails 835 0.000503313 0 tails 836 0.15436537 0 tails 837 0.233625391 0 tails 838 0.646293005 1 heads 839 0.454928005 0 tails 840 0.059265391 0 tails 841 0.256735052 0 tails 842 0.606269842 1 heads 843 0.387448871 0 tails 844 0.346691998 0 tails 845 0.073443866 0 tails 846 0.503531435 1 heads 847 0.393550682 0 tails 848 0.272570617 0 tails 849 0.127357502 0 tails 850 0.989352937 1 heads 851 0.646522297 1 heads 852 0.706809895 1 heads 853 0.791308719 1 heads 854 0.654260385 1 heads 855 0.702567169 1 heads 856 0.123498275 0 tails 857 0.087888761 0 tails 858 0.366848436 0 tails 859 0.029820308 0 tails 860 0.07656783 0 tails 861 0.183981779 0 tails 862 0.096377408 0 tails 863 0.733851604 1 heads 864 0.367932396 0 tails 865 0.675385236 1 heads 866 0.169734575 0 tails 867 0.174592866 0 tails 868 0.887860679 1 heads 869 0.891057334 1 heads 870 0.28540376 0 tails 871 0.161655126 0 tails 872 0.826316252 1 heads 873 0.463234758 0 tails 874 0.639889565 1 heads 875 0.566742989 1 heads 876 0.194218102 0 tails 877 0.627302387 1 heads 878 0.948067202 1 heads 879 0.179321641 0 tails 880 0.329160908 0 tails 881 0.900604327 1 heads 882 0.046426772 0 tails 883 0.168656461 0 tails 884 0.58642795 1 heads 885 0.520227261 1 heads 886 0.363261037 0 tails 887 0.797971882 1 heads 888 0.09317676 0 tails 889 0.300289237 0 tails 890 0.351928155 0 tails 891 0.497737948 0 tails 892 0.495712187 0 tails 893 0.600719642 1 heads 894 0.878928034 1 heads 895 0.163545799 0 tails 896 0.394614133 0 tails 897 0.716727196 1 heads 898 0.189114417 0 tails 899 0.504019794 1 heads 900 0.189725888 0 tails 901 0.509272282 1 heads 902 0.774404814 1 heads 903 0.641010139 1 heads 904 0.57190345 1 heads 905 0.875109529 1 heads 906 0.662013537 1 heads 907 0.846269583 1 heads 908 0.424897967 0 tails 909 0.134263052 0 tails 910 0.808762954 1 heads 911 0.072297054 0 tails 912 0.240693007 0 tails 913 0.057348737 0 tails 914 0.43327758 0 tails 915 0.430438321 0 tails 916 0.546079255 1 heads 917 0.255687184 0 tails 918 0.315159225 0 tails 919 0.390074948 0 tails 920 0.137391957 0 tails 921 0.537733817 1 heads 922 0.295148139 0 tails 923 0.861198214 1 heads 924 0.038989635 0 tails 925 0.128532139 0 tails 926 0.52546497 1 heads 927 0.80279939 1 heads 928 0.504132123 1 heads 929 0.292907153 0 tails 930 0.852474864 1 heads 931 0.366964698 0 tails 932 0.171629447 0 tails 933 0.784122674 1 heads 934 0.080109074 0 tails 935 0.962539753 1 heads 936 0.314243399 0 tails 937 0.395752078 0 tails 938 0.892480997 1 heads 939 0.267194771 0 tails 940 0.331177651 0 tails 941 0.707038896 1 heads 942 0.040326007 0 tails 943 0.253041716 0 tails 944 0.334023468 0 tails 945 0.655809905 1 heads 946 0.920401787 1 heads 947 0.477276746 0 tails 948 0.546244709 1 heads 949 0.880618944 1 heads 950 0.769978973 1 heads 951 0.174822852 0 tails 952 0.146560804 0 tails 953 0.58498107 1 heads 954 0.310416098 0 tails 955 0.807826723 1 heads 956 0.87756985 1 heads 957 0.824821745 1 heads 958 0.785683709 1 heads 959 0.411029356 0 tails 960 0.930630956 1 heads 961 0.937949629 1 heads 962 0.814637983 1 heads 963 0.770958931 1 heads 964 0.798988241 1 heads 965 0.074841574 0 tails 966 0.230421165 0 tails 967 0.177585135 0 tails 968 0.274940014 0 tails 969 0.39720251 0 tails 970 0.13717918 0 tails 971 0.448051035 0 tails 972 0.52054306 1 heads 973 0.464722834 0 tails 974 0.254282691 0 tails 975 0.521639877 1 heads 976 0.236558203 0 tails 977 0.449440553 0 tails 978 0.166999977 0 tails 979 0.318099385 0 tails 980 0.265387405 0 tails 981 0.5810344 1 heads 982 0.550172051 1 heads 983 0.451035301 0 tails 984 0.829019315 1 heads 985 0.010024453 0 tails 986 0.661481167 1 heads 987 0.617866613 1 heads 988 0.279336384 0 tails 989 0.573953738 1 heads 990 0.010989465 0 tails 991 0.138862018 0 tails 992 0.975207179 1 heads 993 0.721036744 1 heads 994 0.513185389 1 heads 995 0.205032858 0 tails 996 0.839029552 1 heads 997 0.320561276 0 tails 998 0.443615806 0 tails 999 0.962155904 1 heads 1000 0.544462031 1 heads |
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| GHOSTDANCER
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Fri Dec-03-04 08:50 PM Response to Original message |
| 1. I'm sure the guy who just got out of prison, the guy that was a convicted |
|
of embezzlement charges, The very guy who wrote the software for not only the individual Diebold voting machines but also the the registering computer had many other tricks up his sleeve including this one.
|
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| stellanoir
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Fri Dec-03-04 09:01 PM Response to Original message |
| 2. TIA |
|
Edited on Fri Dec-03-04 09:10 PM by stellanoir
you must be employing the use of one of those highly rig-able lopsided New Hampshire quarters, aren't you. . .?
But seriously dear, I do believe that you'll find that it's spelled "tails." Don't mean to be a stickler for details as you well know, I'm horrific with more than most of them. Great work as always. on edit-Brando told me to post this. |
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| TruthIsAll
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Fri Dec-03-04 09:10 PM Response to Reply #2 |
| 3. Stella, thanks. Just fixed it and ran another 1000 coin flips. |
|
tia
|
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| stellanoir
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Fri Dec-03-04 09:47 PM Response to Reply #3 |
| 7. TIA, |
|
Edited on Fri Dec-03-04 09:50 PM by stellanoir
that must have been a pain in the butt to edit all of those "tails."
Sorry. No pun intended. |
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| AmyCrat
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Fri Dec-03-04 09:33 PM Response to Reply #2 |
| 6. stelllla (okay, you hear that a lot, I'm sure...) |
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but seriously... well no,
"you must be employing the use of one of those highly rig-able lopsided New Hampshire quarters, aren't you. . .?" I laughed my butt off! |
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| bleever
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Fri Dec-03-04 09:23 PM Response to Original message |
| 4. So, if Shrub benefits from over 60% of "errors", the likelihood |
|
that it's accidental is about 1 in 7 BILLION.
A billion is a real big number. 7 of them, huh? But wait: the "glitches" favored Shrub not 60% of the time, but closer to 100%. What do you think? |
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| TruthIsAll
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Fri Dec-03-04 09:30 PM Response to Reply #4 |
| 5. hehehehehehe. Well, at least you get it, bleever. |
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You know, this ain't rocket science.
Well, it is to the freepers. |
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| Donailin
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Fri Dec-03-04 09:55 PM Response to Original message |
| 8. Legal inquiry |
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Are they any Lawyers/Paralegals out there who know if statistics like these have been successfully used in a prosecution?
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Fri Apr 19th 2024, 06:46 AM Response to Original message |
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