GreenbergResearch.com - did a survey recently that showed...

[ClintCooper2003]

51% voted for Bush, and 48% voted for Kerry. HOWEVER, in EVERY SINGLE POLL they did leading up to the election this year, when they asked people who they voted for in 2000, 50% said Bush and only 44% said Gore. Does that mean that it is simply harder for pollsters to find Democratic voters?

Let's look at the shift:

Surveyed 2000: Actual 2000:
Bush 50% Gore 48.3%
Gore 44% Bush 47.8%

=shift toward Democrat +6.8%

By that standard, does this look about right

Surveyed 2004: Actual 2004:
Bush 51% Kerry 51.4%
Kerry 48% Bush 47.6%

=shift toward Democrat +6.8%

Thoughts? :-)

(By the way, greenbergresearch is a Democratic polling firm.)

[havocmom]

1. Cell phones? Do they call cell phones? Maybe there are more Dems

using cells and not having land lines?

Maybe there are more republicans sitting at home lonely waiting for the phone to ring? ;) Maybe more republicans have egos which demand the tell everyone who asks who they are voting for? :shrug:

Most Dems I know just won't talk to pollsters.

[ClintCooper2003]

2. Zogby did a comprehensive poll of cell phone users (under 30) and...

found that 60% of them were voting for Kerry.

[tritsofme]

3. Wait, is this a post election poll?

And they asked who people voted for in 2000 and 2004?

If that's the case its possible that people who did not vote in 2000, but did vote in 2004 for bush simply say they voted for him in 2000 as well, since the general electorate is more friendly to bush this time around.

Also in post election polls it is not uncommon for more people to say they voted for the winner rather than the loser.

[ClintCooper2003]

5. You're assuming the results this time are accurate. I'm not.

[Igel]

4. 94% response for "surveyed 2000" vs. 99% for 2004?

edited to include text:

Is there a link to the actual results?

[ClintCooper2003]

6. In 2000, 6% said they voted for "other", in 2004 it was 1% for "other"