Theory regarding Arnebeck (and more)

[Broken Acorn]

I was thinking about this today.

Isn't it odd that a lot of different things are happening tomorrow?

1) The House Judiciary Meeting regarding Ohio/Blackwell/Exit Polls
2) Dean will (likely) announce that he is the new DNC Chairman
3) Arnebeck will file a lawsuit in Ohio, challenging that Kerry won


A few more thoughts on tomorrow...

1) A lot of people have been blaming Kerry for not taking a more active role and Blackwell/Repukes for running out the clock for the recount.

But what if Kerry and the Dems have been using the clock to their advantage for their Hail Mary as time runs out? What if Arnebeck comes out with such irrefutable evidence of fraud in Ohio that the Repukes can't spin it because it's too late?

And what about Arnebeck representing Alliance for Democracy? Aren't they from Massachusetts? Couldn't they be the head of Kerry's 17,000 lawyer army with Arnebeck leading the way?

2) Dean steps in and rallies/challenges his Grassroots Troops to stand up for Democracy. This then fires up the Dem base and leads to a victory in the Public Opinion War over the possibility of Election Fraud in Ohio.

3) With thought #1 & #2 in place, the House Elections Committee finally confirms fraud and dictates that Kerry won Ohio.

Game over...time has run out :)

I know this is wishful thinking, but stranger things have happened.

I guess we'll find out tomorrow!

Edit: for typos

[Razorback_Democrat]

1. I'm not putting all my eggs in any one basket!

I'm hoping for the best in all of the areas you talked about

[Quakerfriend]

3. This would be so sweeeeeet!

And, I don't think that Kerry's been going to NH and now IA just to thank his supporters either!! No way.....He's still in the game!

[corbett]

33. You're Both Right

Kerry definitely is still in this and he's been playing Stratego all along. He's a former prosecutor, remember. He knows that you don't indict until your evidence will sustain an arrest and pretrial motions. The Conyers event is crucial but Kerry still has 2 or 3 other avenues to exploit. It ain't over yet! Not by a long shot!

[Broken Acorn]

35. Stratego..nice n/t

[dalloway]

41. what other avenues do you predict n/t?

[keithjx]

2. Out to lunch

I have been totally OTL on the DNC matter. How likely is it that Dean will be chair? I thought it was much more contentious than this....

[Helga Scow Stern]

4. I always said you had good posts. n/t

[Broken Acorn]

31. Thanks Ojai n/t

[ewagner]

5. I've lost enthusiasm for

Arenbeck's lawsuit. I was very intrigued at first but now I'm getting the impression that the only evidence he has that votes were "flipped" is a statistical analysis.

Am I wrong about that?

If so, please enlighten me.

[Peace Patriot]

24. ewagner...

1. "I've lost enthusiasm for Arnebeck's lawsuit."

Gee, what have YOU done recently to save our dying democracy?

Look, sorry to be so snippy (I noticed you have 1000+ posts). But this guy and those doing this lawsuit are in the trenches, under live fire. This is NOT the moment to be making such downer statements that could well reach their ears, or to give easy sound bites to those who are trying to destroy them. Tomorrow maybe. Next week. Not on the DAY of their filing--when news coverage and public perception is MOST IMPORTANT.

2. Alliance for Democracy people--who are active in my area--are extremely intelligent, well-informed, well-focused, hard working, persistent, local-community oriented, grass roots activists. I have been hugely admiring of this group, long before the Arnebeck lawsuit.

Cliff Arnebeck has been as open as the media will let him be, and as humanly possible, considering what he's doing. He most definitely has the right idea. The Ohio election results MUST be challenged in the context of the bigger picture of election fraud nationwide, and both regarding vote suppression and electronic voting machine fraud. Evildoers always want a narrower and narrower focus in any investigation of their wrong-doing. That's how they hide things. That's how THIS election fraud was hidden--by making it SEEM like it comes down to a relatively few "provisional" ballots in Ohio (or FLA).

A broad legal approach not only reflects the TRUTH of the situation, it also speaks to ALL THOSE who were disenfranchised--all across the country--and gives them all a context in which to understand the goings on in Ohio.

It's brilliant! And, he would be an idiot to spread the details of his evidence all over the Internet, before they've filed their suit, to be immediately conveyed by freepers and trolls to Bush Inc. lawyers and Bush Inc. operatives in Ohio in a position to shred evidence and cover their asses.

A reminder: Statistical analysis IS admissible in court to prove fraud in a case where the paper trail has been destroyed. (I'm not saying that's what's his evidence is. I don't know that. But I AM saying that you CAN win a case with this kind of evidence--not to mention making an important case in the court of public opinion, an equally proper venue for deciding matters of election fraud.)

[karlrschneider]

34. Good, cogent post PP. We need to keep in mind this is not (necessarily)

a 'criminal' investigation where 'reasonable doubt' obtains, but rather a civil case that depends on preponderance of evidence which is building day by day. ;-)

[roseBudd]

27. Wrong because there is a paper trail in OH

There are poll books and the punch card ballots themselves. If the program that tabulated the votes (Triad Systems) does not match the actual punch card ballots that can be hand tabulated, that would be proof. If the machines that tabulated are impounded and examined fraud may be revealed. If poll books are missing signatures or signatures do not match, that is evidence. If witnesses are subpoenaed and forced to testify under oath, that is evidence. The statistical anomalies are prima facie evidence.

[dalloway]

42. public forums on fraud?

Wasn't it Alliance for Democracy that was holding those public discussions to hear complaints of election day problems? I remember reading some really incredible summaries of those meetings (think it was on dailykos) and was surprised they weren't showing up in more places. I remember thinking that they were compiling all this data for when they file their lawsuit--to lay it all out at once. Am I mistaken about who sponsored those forums?

[roseBudd]

44. I was at the first public meeting Alliance for Democracy held in

Cincinnati. The witnesses gave sworn videotaped statements. One woman told of her experience on Nov. 2 of entering several times that day the Warren County BoE even though their was a so called level 10 terror alert. She also testifieed to the very successful Kerry GOTV volunteer operations in Warren that made Bush's margin of 71%, the same as 2000 when there was no GOTV whatsoever implausible.

Another woman testified to being told by a woman hired to register voters that Sproul was the company that hired the temp co. that paid the voter registration employees.

This meeting was nothing compared to the ones in Cuyahoga and Franklin.

[mostly_lurking]

6. I don't know about Alliance for Democracy

but Arnebeck is a lawyer from Columbus, Ohio.

[Zan_of_Texas]

7. all wet on Alliance for Democracy.

You wrote:
Alliance for Democracy? Aren't they from Massachusetts? Couldn't they be the head of Kerry's 17,000 lawyer army with Arnebeck leading the way?


Sorry. It is a populist group, non-partisan. Kinda small. The organization is definitely not a Kerry vehicle.

[vpigrad]

25. very small group

> not a Kerry vehicle.

That's an understatement. I'd go as far as calling them anti-liberal and anti-freedom. It's a very good sign that even someone that is anti-party is working against the repukes.

[Broken Acorn]

29. > not a Kerry vehicle

All the better to fly under the radar then. Don't you think vpigrad?

[bmoney07]

8. Good thoughts

but time will tell, but keep on thinkin!!

[understandinglife]

9. AfD links that some may find helpful...

http://www.thealliancefordemocracy.org/html/eng/2209-AA.shtml

http://www.thealliancefordemocracy.org/about.html

Mr Arnebeck is co-chair of the AfD along with other responsibilities.

Peace.

"Did Bush Know?"

[Broken Acorn]

10. Thanks for the AfD update

I just saw that their mailing address is:

760 Main Street
Waltham, MA 02454-0115
Phone: [phone]


And thought that maybe, just maybe, there was a Kerry/Massachusetts connection under the radar. Oh well.

[JoMama49]

11. Wow, Broken Arm,

What a nice, simple, sweet fantasy. Now, can we all hold that thought?
JoMama.

[moesse]

12. Goosebumps! Ya just gave me goosebumps!

I've thought all along that things were being done under the wire. Factor in the delay in Arnebeck's suit, with little 'splaining going around, and... you got yerself a triangulation of forces catching crooks with fat slimey republican hands in the cookie jar, as it were!

Let's hope and send out positive energies!

[moesse]

13. I meant under

the radar!

[tex-wyo-dem]

14. That would be the best Christmas present ever...

I hope you're right!

Timing does seem to be interesting. On another thread (I believe it was the one with the Danish reporter' interview with Arnebeck), Arnebeck mentioned that he had until the 16th to file (date the electorate meets), but intends to file tomorrow. Sounds a little like he's trying to coinside with everything else.

One curious thing that I've continued to wonder about is the collective silence of everyone you would think would be jumping up and down screaming about this issue. Recently more and more voices have gotten into the fray, but in what seems to be a slow, calculated way. Maybe they are all waiting for the big bang...

[dalloway]

43. Did Arnebeck delay filing to coincide???

I watched the C-Span interview with Arnebeck (in which, by the way, he came across as very steady, smart, and careful). At that point, he was indicating they were going to file last week, arguing that they could file after the local boards had certified the election, not needing to wait for SOS.

So I have been waiting around each day thinking he was going to file. When I found out he wasn't filing now till Wed, I had exactly the same thought--everything pointing to Wed.

BTW, just heard earlier that Carter will be on Hardball this Friday. Wonder what my favorite nobel-peace-prize-winning-international-election-monitoring guy will have to say? When McAuliffe aluded to having a non-partisan, respected organization look into the allegations (don't recall his exact words), my first thoughts were of Carter, recalling his statement on NPR before the election that the US did not meet the basic international criteria they use to determine fair elections.

[Hamoth]

15. HUH!? DNC Winter meeting already!?

How did I MISS THAT!?!!? ARG!!!

[keepthemhonest]

17. as Dean says

Yaaaaahoooooooooooooooo!
i hope you are right, I hope it is all planned out like this, after all they have had four years to plan for this election and what might happen.

[Hamoth]

20. Wait a minute...winter meeting is in Feb Dean can't be chair

He might be announcing his intention to run for the chair oficially. But he can't be elected to the position until the winter meeting. The charter is specific about the fact that it has to be announced, public, and open votes. DNC chair can't be a surprise ushered out.

However we all know that if Dean announced that he is officially pursuing the slot, that it would be his to have.

I was upset that I might have missed the winter meeting, becuase I intend to speak at the winter meeting per my DNC charter rights. I will speak on behalf of we who demand Dean for party chair lest the party fracture.

[Broken Acorn]

26. Sorry for the false alarm Hamoth

I just keep hearing that Dean is making an announcement at noon tomorrow. Thought he/DNC were announcing that he will be taking over the DNC. My misinterpretation.

[Kellis]

16. Just keep the pressure up

and hope for the Best~!:hug: But I have to say it is looking good for Democracy these last few days!


WELCOME to DU to all the new members postingGood to have you on board!

:toast:

[keepthemhonest]

18. yes welcome to all New Duer's

that is a very important message today.:hi:

[noclonyofthechimp]

19. I love Hail Mary's! Kerry is strategic. Could make sense. I like it!

[Shalom]

21. Thanks for Positive Ideas...

Maybe I misjudged you w.r.t. Madsen stuff. I like your suggestions.

Patsy Stone started a DU thread based upon sensing a "Perfect Storm" may be gathering.

It would be amazing to not just witness it, but be a part of it.

[Broken Acorn]

22. No problem Shalom

We will agree on most things, and at time be at odds with others.

Hopefully this is something we will all be able to celebrate and enjoy if my theory holds true about tomorrow.

Still wishful thinking...but hopeful nevertheless.

[meganmonkey]

23. A lot of things were waiting on the official vote cert. in Ohio n/t

[keepthemhonest]

36. ahhhhh

hopefully that is true and they were just waiting for that. Overall we have had some prettty good news over the course of the last week. It seems like the media is covering it more, which means maybe more people will find out about it and go to the 12/12/ at 12 march (51 Capitals)I gues it is all the good news that has got their attention.

[zann725]

40. Yes, that was my impression too.

And Arnebeck's waiting to file until tomorrow...the same day as the Judiciary hearing, and Dean's announcement seems QUITE coordinated. In fact, I almost get the impression that Arnebeck did NOT want to file until the Hearing tomorrow because whatever is in the Complaint is a real 'bombshell' (or bombshellS), and did not want it known ahead of the hearing...for maximum impact. The media no doubt will be at the court getting copies of the papers as soon as possible...so I really feel this coordination is NOT coincidental...immediately following Blackwell's certification. Plus, Blackwell had NOT finished perjuring himself until he 'legalized' the clearly altered vote count. Now his final story is 'in.'

[Broken Acorn]

45. zann

I'm glad I wasn't the only one out there thinking this

[Carolab]

28. Yeah and if I had Kerry's money

I'd give mine away

I'm sick of what if. I want some ACTION.

[Broken Acorn]

30. Patience is a virtue Carolab

Let's see how you feel by tomorrow afternoon.

[buddysmellgood]

32. Wow. That was absolutely Rovian. I wish as well. eom

[goldengreek]

37. They've been adopting Rove's tactics for months.

With the added benefit of being truthful. Their use of the intelligence community and foreign bodies and governments such as the United Nations to beat the crap out of this administration with timely leaks in the month before the election -- all the while they were aggressive though rather conservative in their attacks -- was splendid. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this scenario turns out to be true.

[Broken Acorn]

38. 'With the added benefit of being truthful'

Nice distinction goldengreek.

[seito]

39. I like the way you think Acorn

:yourock:

[Quakerfriend]

46. I just read

on another thread that they've thrown away some of the poll books in OH.......can you believe this! I sure hope this doesn't take away from Arnebeck's case!!

[Broken Acorn]

47. I am really getting excited now!

Can't wait to see that guy go off on Diebold on Scarborough country in about 20 minutes (West Coast airing).

And the Mitofsky reply is pretty much evidence that the exit polls show a clear 'mandate' win for Kerry (and the Rove has probably paid him off not to talk as well).

Oh my gosh...it's going to be hard to go to sleep tonight!