Stark County- Ohio Bellwether, consistently underrepresents national Dems

[NewYorkerfromMass]

I have not reached any firm conclusion on how much fraud occurred and where and how, but I have noted this interesting anomaly out of Ohio....

Stark County is known as a bellwether- it consistently picks the overall winner, and closely reflects the national vote percentages.
Sometimes it is wrong- the one notable exception being 1976, when it spotted Gerald Ford one extra percent, and shorted Carter 2.
But that points out an even more consistent trait of Stark, and that is its reflection of the national Democratic percentage. Since 1968, it has always recorded 1 to 2 points less than the total national percentage of Democrats.

Year ............... Winner percentage victory
2004 ..................... National
Kerry 50.6% 95,338 .. ???
Bush 48.9% 92,211 .. ???
Other 0.5% 907

2000 ..................... National
Gore 47.1% 75,308 - 48.38%
Bush 48.9% 78,153 - 47.87%
Nader 2.5% 4,032
Other 1.5% 2,351

1996 ..................... National
Clinton 46.4% 73,437 - 49.23%
Dole . 38.0% 60,212 - 40.72%
Perot 14.5% 23,004 - 8.40%
Other 1.1% 1,693

1992 ..................... National
Clinton 40.0% 70,064- 43.0%
Bush . 35.3% 61,863 - 37.4%
Perot 24.2% 42,413 - 18.91%
Other 0.4% 752

1988 ..................... National
Bush .. 55.1% 87,087 - 53.4%
Dukakis 44.0% 69,639- 45.6%
Other 0.9% 1,370

1984 ..................... National
Reagan 59.7% 98,434 - 58.77%
Mondale 39.5% 65,157 - 40.56%
Other 0.8% 1,325

1980 ......................... National
Reagan 55.9% 87,769- 50.75%
Carter . 37.6% 59,005- 41.01%
Anderson 5.1% 8,030
Other 1.5% 2,302

1976 ......................... National
Carter 48.0% 70,012- 50.08%
Ford . 49.8% 72,607- 48.02%
Other 2.1% 3,090

1972 ......................... National
Nixon ..... 62.7% 92,110- 60.67%
McGovern 35.1% 51,565- 37.52%
Other 2.1% 3,135

1968 ......................... National
Nixon ..... 47.9% 68,414- 43.42%
Humphrey 40.4% 57,675- 42.72%
Wallace .. 11.7% 16,775- 13.53%
Other 0.0% 24

1964 ......................... National
Johnson . 62.3% 88,704- 61.05%
Goldwater 37.7% 53,632 38.47%

After 1964 Stark gets even more off this track- in 1960 it gave Nixon 55%!!!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Apparently high unemployment affected Stark this year

that is what I am finding anyway, so perhaps this anomaly is easily explained. Ironically, Diebold is a big employer in this area.

http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/38/news-blume.php

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A36180-2004May18?language=printer

[fliesincircles]

2. Stark county got it right.

And it really should be looked at as the shot across the bow for fraud nationwide. The media was crawling all over Stark county all summer long. "So goes Stark, so goes the Nation." After the "election" you heard nothing about Stark county. Why? Stark county was the ONLY county in Ohio that went from red to blue. Now that just wouldn't fit with the "mandate" would it? Nothing to see here, move along.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. but there were 2 factors working in our favor this time

1. The economy was bad there, unemployment something like 5.5%, and thousands of layoffs (maybe someone has better numbers)

2. Large college population- increased student GOTV really helped Kerry. The county wide turnout was 26% better than for Gore in 2000. Again, I don't have the numbers but there is a large student population there.

[fliesincircles]

4. Layoffs true. Students, dunno.

There are really only 2 small colleges here. Walsh and Kent State(Stark campus). There was a definite trend away from bush. bush came here 9 days before 11/2, and spoke to 1500 people. Not a whole lotta support if you ask me. My point is why would a GLARING trend away from bush support, only occur in one county? A "bellweather" no less.

[skids]

7. Wasn't unemployment pretty high in previous elections?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. kick

[ClintCooper2003]

6. excellent post. When I saw that Stark County had gone for Kerry, I...

really thought he was going to be our President.