NYT 10/17/04: "Exit Polls to Protect the Vote"

[TruthIsAll]

So, why, Grey Lady, don't you print this now?

New York Times

"Exit Polls to Protect the Vote"

By MARTIN PLISSNER
Published: October 17, 2004

WASHINGTON - Since the 1960's, the exit poll, that staple of election-night television, has been used along with other tools to declare winners when the polls close in each state, and its accuracy is noted later when the actual vote count proves it right. A landmark exception, of course, came in 2000, when the networks initially gave the decisive Florida vote to Al Gore.

But now exit polls are being used in some places to monitor the official vote count itself, either to validate the outcome or to mount a challenge to it.

That has happened in several countries in the last year, and in the United States one organization plans to use exit polls in five closely contested states in November to measure whether there have been impediments to voting.

Last fall, an American firm, whose polling clients have included Al Gore and John Edwards, was hired by some international foundations to conduct an exit poll in the former Soviet republic of Georgia during a parliamentary election.

On Election Day, the firm, Global Strategy Group, projected a victory for the main opposition party. When the sitting government counted the votes, however, it announced that its own slate of candidates had won. Supporters of the opposition stormed the Parliament, and the president, Eduard A. Shevardnadze, later resigned under pressure from the United States and Russia."

[jsamuel]

1. Wow, this is so sad that the NYT is one of the worst ones to cover fraud

Man, wtf is wrong with them?

[Action Jackson]

20. yup.

I will never forgive the NYTimes for refusing to cover this story.

[New Earth]

2. we need to storm the state capitol

[TruthIsAll]

3. HOW QUICKLY THEY FORGET.

.

[SomthingsGotaGive]

9. Hey TIA you are a trooper

I've always thought the Jason Blair thing was a smoke screen for the real Miller lies being perpetrated by the NY Times.

[trayfoot]

4. Can you give a link to that article, please? Thanks?

[liberal_in_GA]

5. We should email Martin Plissner

directly, with a link to his article, reminding him of what he wrote and asking where the follow-up is.

[neversaynever]

6. Has the URL to this been posted?

This indeed must be thrown right up their Janus-faced asses.

[Karenca]

7. keep this kicked, we may be able to put this to good use--thanks so much

for finding this!!!

[Angry Girl]

8. grrrrr! This kind of stuff makes me soooo angry!

[KerryOn]

10. ThisIsAll 4:00pm Exit Poll Data

Hi,

Just joined your group to share some interesting data about the 4:00 p.m. exit poll data posted by TruthIsAll.

In case you did not notice www.scoop.co.nz claims that they got the data from this message board as posted by ThisISAll. ThisISAll insinuated that he got the data from Scoop?
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

“The data emerged this evening NZT in a post on the Democratic Underground website under the forum name TruthIsAll.”

I don't know where it came from, and don't really cae, but I think I have proven that this data is bogus.

Instead of using the percentages of the actual vote for Kerry and Bush I calculated the Kerry and Bush percentages using just their total vote. (That is the percentages with out Nadar and the other lesser know candidates.) Then I compared that with the exit poll data that ThisIsAll posted. Results... Well ... Take the first one NH.

Bush Actual-Exit=-4.72, Kerry Actual-Exit=+4.72About the same results all the way down the list.These exit poll numbers are Bogus. There is no way that 43 states would come out all with in 1/100th of a percent. NO WAY!

Take Care
Kirt

BAct% BExt% B Dif KAct% KExt% K dif TotRd
ALABAMA 37.08% 41.00% -3.92% 62.92% 59.00% 3.92% 7.83%
ALASKA 36.17% 40.50% -4.33% 63.83% 59.50% 4.33% 8.66%
ARIZONA 44.74% 47.00% -2.26% 55.26% 53.00% 2.26% 4.52%
ARKANSAS 45.03% 46.60% -1.57% 54.97% 53.40% 1.57% 3.15%
CALIFORNIA 55.00% 54.00% 1.00% 45.00% 46.00% -1.00% -1.99%
COLORADO 47.35% 49.10% -1.75% 52.65% 50.90% 1.75% 3.50%
CONNECTICUT 55.24% 58.50% -3.26% 44.76% 41.50% 3.26% 6.53%
DC 90.63% 91.00% -0.37% 9.37% 9.00% 0.37% 0.74%
DELAWARE 53.82% 58.50% -4.68% 46.18% 41.50% 4.68% 9.37%
FLORIDA 47.47% 50.00% -2.53% 52.53% 49.00% 3.53% 6.06%
GEORGIA 41.58% 43.00% -1.42% 58.42% 57.00% 1.42% 2.84%
HAWAII 54.37% 53.30% 1.07% 45.63% 46.70% -1.07% -2.15%
IDAHO 30.71% 33.50% -2.79% 69.29% 66.50% 2.79% 5.59%
ILLINOIS 55.09% 57.00% -1.91% 44.91% 43.00% 1.91% 3.81%
INDINA 39.56% 41.00% -1.44% 60.44% 59.00% 1.44% 2.88%
IOWA 49.54% 50.70% -1.16% 50.46% 49.40% 1.06% 2.21%
KANSAS 36.97% 35.00% 1.97% 63.03% 65.00% -1.97% -3.94%
KENTUCY 40.00% 41.00% -1.00% 60.00% 59.00% 1.00% 2.00%
LOUISIANA 42.64% 44.50% -1.86% 57.36% 55.50% 1.86% 3.72%
MAINE 54.48% 54.80% -0.32% 45.52% 45.30% 0.22% 0.54%
MARYLAND 56.25% 57.00% -0.75% 43.75% 43.00% 0.75% 1.50%
MASSACHUSETTS 62.70% 66.00% -3.30% 37.30% 34.00% 3.30% 6.60%
MICHIGAN 51.72% 52.50% -0.78% 48.28% 47.50% 0.78% 1.57%
MINNESOTA 51.76% 54.50% -2.74% 48.24% 45.50% 2.74% 5.47%
MISSISSIPPI 39.90% 43.30% -3.40% 60.10% 56.80% 3.30% 6.69%
MISSOURI 46.33% 47.50% -1.17% 53.67% 52.50% 1.17% 2.35%
MONTANA 39.51% 39.80% -0.29% 60.49% 60.30% 0.19% 0.49%
NEBRASKA 33.09% 36.80% -3.71% 66.91% 63.30% 3.61% 7.32%
NEVADA 48.67% 49.40% -0.73% 51.33% 50.70% 0.63% 1.37%
NEW HAMPSHIRE 50.68% 55.40% -4.72% 49.32% 44.60% 4.72% 9.43%
NEW JERSEY 53.21% 55.00% -1.79% 46.79% 45.00% 1.79% 3.58%
NEW MEXICO 49.60% 51.30% -1.70% 50.40% 48.70% 1.70% 3.41%
NEW YORK 58.83% 63.00% -4.17% 41.17% 37.00% 4.17% 8.34%
NORTH CAROLINA 43.71% 48.00% -4.29% 56.29% 52.00% 4.29% 8.58%
NORTH DAKOTA 36.09% 34.00% 2.09% 63.91% 66.00% -2.09% -4.17%
OHIO 48.75% 52.10% -3.35% 51.25% 47.90% 3.35% 6.70%
OKLAHOMA 34.44% 35.00% -0.56% 65.56% 65.00% 0.56% 1.12%
OREGON 51.97% 51.20% 0.77% 48.03% 48.80% -0.77% -1.54%
PENNSYLVANIA 51.14% 54.40% -3.26% 48.86% 45.70% 3.16% 6.42%
RHODE ISLAND 60.48% 64.00% -3.52% 39.52% 36.00% 3.52% 7.04%
SOUTH CAROLINA 41.30% 46.00% -4.70% 58.70% 54.00% 4.70% 9.39%
SOUTH DAKOTA 39.09% 37.80% 1.29% 60.91% 62.30% -1.39% -2.68%
TENNESSEE 42.78% 41.50% 1.28% 57.22% 58.50% -1.28% -2.56%
TEXAS 38.48% 37.00% 1.48% 61.52% 63.00% -1.48% -2.95%
UTAH 27.06% 30.50% -3.44% 72.94% 69.50% 3.44% 6.88%
VERMONT 60.34% 65.00% -4.66% 39.66% 35.00% 4.66% 9.33%
VIRGINIA 45.65% 47.00% -1.35% 54.35% 51.00% 3.35% 4.70%
WASHINGTON 53.65% 55.00% -1.35% 46.35% 45.10% 1.25% 2.61%
WEST VIRGINIA 43.56% 45.30% -1.74% 56.44% 54.80% 1.64% 3.37%
WISCONSIN 50.20% 52.50% -2.30% 49.80% 47.50% 2.30% 4.60%
WYOMING 29.70% 29.00% 0.70% 70.30% 65.00% 5.30% 4.59%

[snot]

11. Shdn't this also be posted in threads devoted to statistical analyses?

[ewulf]

12. Who was this organization

that "planned to use exit polls in five closely contested states in November to measure whether there have been impediments to voting?" Was it just vote-watch? Have they actually had anything conclusive to say about this election?

I sure which vote-watch had thought that one aspect of checking whether their had been impediments to voting (and whether those impediments had been applied in a way to sway the election) was to actually ask respondents who they voted for, and not just their level of happiness with the voting experience.

[rdmccur]

13. Send this to Conyers

[TruthIsAll]

14. REALITY BITES THE NY TIMES n/t

.

[KerryOn]

21. TruthIsAll

.. would you like to coment on post 10?

[TruthIsAll]

22. Sure. Its Bullshit. I'll get you the link. My numbers ARE from Simon/Scoop

I ignored Nader et al by converting to a 2-party Kerry vs. Bush vote percentage. I did this for comparative purposes, since I only used Kerry and Bush in my other analysis (Election Model, for one).

There was no bias or measureble difference in the numbers, since KERRY AND BUSH WERE ALLOCATED THIRD PARTY VOTES IN PROPORTION TO THERE VOTE PERCENTAGES.

I NEVER CLAIMED TO HAVE USED ANY DATA OTHER THAN THE SCOOP DATA SITE. ONCE AGAIN, THE REASON FOR CONVERTING TO A 2-PARTY PERCENTAGE WAS TO ENABLE A COMPARISON OF APPLES TO APPLES.

LET'S FACE IT, WE ONLY CARE ABOUT BUSH AND KERRY.

I ALWAYS RESPOND TO NAYSAYERS AND YOU ARE NO EXCEPTION. I WOULD APPRECIATE IF YOU WOULD AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE YOUR MISUNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA I USED.

Now go back and check my numbers state by state vs. Simon/Scoop. I show you how to do it in the link below, using CO as an example.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x132803#134275

[Roger_Otip]

23. please add the link to the demopedia page "Exit poll"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/demopedia/index.php/Exit_poll

and any other stuff you think should go up there. it would be good to have all this stuff in one place.

[KerryOn]

24. Apology

Yes, I will acknowledge that I did in fact misunderstand where you obtained your data. I have been in contact with Scoop and I now understand that your data came from Jonathan Simon.

Please except my apology.

>I ALWAYS RESPOND TO NAYSAYERS AND YOU ARE NO EXCEPTION.<
???

[TruthIsAll]

27. Ok, good. We all make mistakes. Even me. Read on.

I appreciate and accept your apology. Shows me that you are well-intentioned and proves that we are on the same team.

By the way, some good came out of your post.

You got me thinking about why my numbers were ever so slightly off of Simon's. I forgot all about the two party adjustment I made.
As stated, the purpose was to force Bush + Kerry to equal 100% to simplify analysis. I knew Nader was not going to be a factor this time. And so it made my analysis a helluva lot easier.

Believe me, if I screw up, I'll be the first to say so. Others (Repuke Trolls) post crap on DU looking to obfuscate and fuck me up. I guarantee, they won't get away with any bullshit with me, because I know more than they do. I've got more hands-on experience solving problems than they will ever know. They don't solve problems; they cause them by refusing to take their heads out of the sand. These trolls have no appreciation of logic or truth or a sense of fair play.


I look forward to your future posts.

[KerryOn]

28. And I made a few more

I realize now that when taking the difference between the actual and the exit poll, that the negative numbers must be the same as the positive numbers, when looking a two party percentages that add up to 100%.

I junmped the gun and was not thinking it through correctly.

Take Care

[Kellis]

15. ...

Quote
A landmark exception, of course, came in 2000, when the networks initially gave the decisive Florida vote to Al Gore.

AND...again in 04.


and now....The US has declared a fraudulant election process in the UKraine-exit polls being cited as evidence of said fraud.

**insanity**
The evidence is staring us right in the eye and because "THEY" won't acknowledge it WE are crazy...right.


Thanks for the post TIA.

[myschkin]

16. WONDERFUL!

We have to throw it them on the head (NYT)!

[robbedvoter]

17. You got a link for this beaut?

[Razorback_Democrat]

18. They were probably just talking about Ukraine

that seems to be the only place that anyone in MSM cares about fraud!

[Griffy]

19. it was writen BEFORE Ukraine election!!! n/t

[november3rd]

25. Keep this kicked

This is one of the great posts of the POST election season!

[Vote4Kerry]

26. Here is the link to the article

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/weekinreview/17plis.html