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Documentation that Kerry Won Ohio; (the recount will prove it)

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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:37 AM
Original message
Documentation that Kerry Won Ohio; (the recount will prove it)
Documentation that Kerry won Ohio
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/supreme.htm


Strong Evidence of fraud in Miami County, Ohio
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/miami.htm

High undercounts in Kerry precincts and low undercounts in Bush precincts in Cincinati
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/cincinnati.htm

Indications of Fraud in several Ohio counties
www.flcv.vom/fraudioh.html

Indications of possible ballot box stuffing in S.W. Ohio counties
http://www.flcv.com/swohio.html
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/warren.htm

Favoritism in the Suburbs http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/suburbs.htm

Stealing Votes in Cleveland http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/cleveland.htm

(this is without the huge amount of voter suppression that has been previously documented)
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:40 AM
Response to Original message
1. Hope Is On The Way
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whirlygigspin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. tick tock tick tock
n/t
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Erika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:49 AM
Response to Original message
3. I hope so
Bush is a disgrace.
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Democrat Dragon Donating Member (699 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:52 AM
Response to Original message
4. Remind me again
why a recount can do this? I think the term "recount" is a bit misleading.
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tuvor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:58 AM
Response to Original message
5. First, Kerry has to claim it, and I don't think he cares.
Either that, or he's doing a great job pretending to be someone who's all but give up and moved on.

In the meantime, everyone else seems to be doing his work for him.
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Griffy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:32 AM
Response to Reply #5
10. Kerry is watching... and helping
and waiting for the right moment to turn his boat directly into the enemy! trust in the fact.. he WANTS to be president! The media will pounce on this the moment Kerry says "I beleive that the will of the voters in Ohio was not for bush" ... he HAS to have all the fact and proof in hand.. These Lawyers know not to "fill a case" without the proof! Then we need to rally to support him... we shall see...
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 03:37 AM
Response to Reply #5
27. Can I offer another point of view?
I believe that Kerry does care very much about the election. I also think that Kerry cares very much about all of us.

Remember his concession speech? Kerry was moved to tears--by the faith we placed in him and in the passion he witnessed in all of us--on the campaign trail. The candidate who set out to change the American people, was changed by the American people.

I truly believe that Kerry is playing a very smart strategy with the election-fraud issue. He can't be center stage. Attaching himself to the vote-fraud issue would generate media stories that position Kerry as a sore loser. These "Kerry is a spoil sport" stories would discredit the election-fraud issue before the story got out of the gate.

Kerry knows his presence would jeopardize the entire election-fraud case.

So what do you do? You allow unknowns and less-threatening groups (Green Party) to build a solid foundation--while you work in the background and keep a low profile.

It's better this way--with the Green Party and virtually unknown others asking for recounts and leading the charge.

Furthermore, you can't tell me that Michael Moore is sitting around doing and feeling nothing. For those of you who saw were inspired by his firey "Slacker Uprising Tour" speeches that expressed so much disdian for Bush and so much love for the country--do you really buy into the notion that Moore thinks we should just move on because "Bush got more votes"? I think not.

Moore expected fraud. He discussed it openly and vociferously prior to the election. His site had a concerted, national network of volunteers scouring the country for evidence of fraud.

Moore had cameras all over the nation's precincts. When a voter asked one of Moore's camera men if they were filming for another movie, the camera man replied, "No. It's for a court case."

Moore reportedly didn't get out of bed for three days after the election, because he was so crushed. He's just like us--except he's silent right now. The only reason Moore would be silent right now, is for the higher good. Like Kerry, he's hunkering down as the initial construction is completed.

Kerry's signature line was "I've got your back" and Kerry intimated that election fraud would not stand. He's still "got our back". Getting a recount going in Ohio is Kerry taking care of us. Trumpeting this issue on the House floor is Kerry watching out for us.

In addition, Kerry is uber-intelligent. Scary smart. He knew fraud would probably happen. The man prepared. Have faith.

Furthermore, have any of you received communications from Kerry, pleading with you to move on and to accept the results of the election? No. If Kerry truly believed we lost--and that the fraud issue was inconsequential--we would have heard that from Kerry. He's not addressing these issues at all, and this signals that other things are at play.

All we hear is silence and I think we should be comforted that inside this silence, many good things are happening.
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proudbluestater Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:01 AM
Response to Reply #27
30. Two Sparkles! Welcome to DU!!
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 05:02 AM by proudbluestater
Thanks for that wonderful note. Although my faith waivers from time to time, I totally agree with your note regarding the strategy. You put it very eloquently.

I have at times tried to point out the same thing in different words. I have said, you know, you may not see John Kerry at the microphone raising a fuss, but THINGS are progressing anyway. Suits are being filed by people who "have out back." A forum was held by prominent members of the judiciary committee, Common Cause had its own hearing.

I just don't think these things are mere coincidence, nor do I believe that suddenly John Conyers browsed DU and decided that would be a good idea. Cliff Arnebeck, I don't suppose he decided to file suit because some folks were upset. There is somebody of higher profile pulling strings around here.

That said, I don't mean to demean all of the fantastic efforts that are being made here at all. I'm just saying, somebody else seems to be making the higher profile events come about. Of course, without DU and other groups who are concerned, none of it would come about at all. Especially if we all just "moved on" like we were told to do.

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thanatonautos Donating Member (282 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:26 AM
Response to Reply #27
31. This is what I really hope is true.
It all depends on whether something really solid emerges
in the very near future.

I don't think my instincts were wrong about Kerry.

I wanted Dean to be the candidate.

But I came to like Kerry very much as the campaign
continued. I thought some of his positions were principled
stands, taken at real political risk.

I still think he's a good man.

If there is any legal break, I think he will jump
on it like gangbusters. It just isn't there yet. Make
no mistake about it, the stakes are enormous. They're
just too big to make any tactical errors. A big
tactical error would be for Kerry to claim fraud
before there are really, really solid indications
that it's there.

I'm not confident, though, that there will be
a legal break, even though the arguments posted
above on voting patterns look very impressive.

It's a very big deal, for a State Supreme Court
to call a Presidential election into question in
this way.

I hope it happens!
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emcguffie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #31
44. Do you think Rove wanted Dean out?
Because I do. I think the Bushies pretended they were eager to go up against Dean, but were really scared. And they really wanted Kerry, because they could pick apart his record and call him a Massachusetts liberal. (Of course, I was jumping up and down saying that, but only the wind around here was listening.) May I ask, as a Dean supporter, what was your take?
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thanatonautos Donating Member (282 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 05:18 AM
Response to Reply #44
61. Yes. I do.
Yes, I know what you mean about the wind. I got used to the
sound of crickets chirping `electability', `electability,'
whenever I would speak about it.


I think Rove probably was more worried about Dean. I
don't buy the idea that's been put around that the Rovians
were all salivating at the prospect of a Dean candidacy. I
think we can draw that conclusion from the job that, in the
end, the MSM helped to do on Dean. Now, of course, the
Democratic party had front loaded the primaries ... all of
that was true. A lot were undoubtedly not happy with the
idea of a Dean candidacy.

It's exactly what allowed the `electability' meme to catch
on so well, and it's what they wanted, a quick choice of a
winning candidate. But the loss in Iowa was still a much
bigger setback than it should have been, because of the
unbelievably ridiculous airplay that was given to the
`scream'. I mean, what the hell was supposed to be
wrong with it anyway?

Incidentally, most of the Kerry supporters I was talking to
at the time who bothered to find out what had actually
happened did not tell me there was any real problem with the
`scream.' They were all already talking to me about
`electability.'

Kerry was, in comparison to Dean, a known quantity ... all
the attacks that would be made on him could basically be
plotted out in advance. The reappearance of the swifties and
their ancient calumnies shouldn't have come as any surprise
to anyone who knew anything about Kerry. All the stuff about
his minimal accomplishments in the Senate, all of that was
pure boilerplate which had been used on John F. Kennedy,
before. The flip-flopper thing was also easy to anticipate.

The thing about Dean, which I best liked, was his quickness;
his unpredictability in debates and on the stump, his open
opposition to the war and to GOP policies. He had a proposal
with the words universal health care (people under 25) in
it, I remember.

So the way I saw it, Kerry and Dean were both going to be
attacked for being too liberal. I mean, if we had put up Bob
Graham ... better yet, if we had picked Zell Miller,
then even he would have been called a little bit pink
around the edges ;->

Liberal has become basically just a curse word, it actually
doesn't need to be supported in order to be used with
effect. You don't have to prove, now, that someone has a
liberal ideology to make the label stick. Most `red' people
that I talk to around here actually have no idea what
liberalism is or what it has actually accomplished in the
nation's history, even when it comes to liberal policies
that directly benefit them.

I think liberal means roughly what `goddamn red', or, in
more polite company, `fellow traveller' used to mean, back
in the heyday of the HUAC, and it's being applied more or
less indiscriminately. It's ironic that the word `red' has
finally come full circle in this election.

So the worry about Kerry being labelled as a Massachusetts
liberal was not the deciding one for me.

I basically just thought that shrub had to be made publically to
appear to be the incompetent boob that he is. Dean had real
fire when he went after shrub. I thought he had the best chance
to really put shrub away in the debates, to make everyone see
that junior was just standing there buck naked. I wanted
essentially to see him crying up there, for his mummy Hughes,
and his daddy Cheney to come help him out. I think that with a
sufficiently vicious attack, that might have been accomplished.

For me, the main issues were energy policy, health care, the
initiation and conduct of the war in Iraq, the associated
failure of the so-called `war on terrorism,' shrub's fiscal
irresponsibility, the full scale GOP attack on the
accomplishments of the New Deal Democrats and their
political descendents, and finally, the most worrying to me
personally of the non-economic issues, the evangelical
attack on enlightenment values.

If I didn't know the answer, I might wonder whether some of
the new crop of avid wingnut Christians have ever read
The Wealth of Nations. Why don't they all know that
the man who basically invented their God, I mean: the man
who invented laissez-faire free-market capitalism, was a
humanist of the Scottish enlightenment, an anti-monopolist,
and believed that our ability to judge right and wrong comes
about because we are trained to be able to sympathize
with other people
. I mean, Adam Smith is someone you
could actually call a liberal in America today, and you
could do it with some justification.

But back to the point. Dean, it seemed to me, was capable of
mounting an all out attack on shrub's conduct of the war: he had
no problematic baggage on that issue since he had opposed
the war outright, while Kerry had voted to authorize shrub, with
the qualifications that we are all aware of.

I was certain at the time of that vote, despite that it was
sold by the GOP as a vote merely to enable shrub to demand
stronger enforcement of inspections at the UN, that if the
joint resolution went through there would in fact be a
war. And it was clear that after the war started, the GOP
would simply say, well look, you: you Democrats who voted
for war, how dare you even make a peep now, you
hypocritical, backstabbing, flip-flopping ... liberals.

I mean, Senator Byrd as much as told them that that
was what would happen, and that it wouldn't help them
in the midterm election either.

Kerry was on that list. So for me, it seemed that Kerry was
all but certain to have a great deal of trouble landing a
clean punch on shrub over the war. It unfortunately just
didn't matter that Kerry had actually given a very coherent
justification for his vote.

Now in fact, Kerry did far, far better on these issues than
I ever expected. I think he gave a masterful performance in
the debates, he managed to put shrub very off-balance. He was
overall, very commanding. He had garnered the support of all
of those Generals critical of the war. There was momentum
against shrub after the debates.

Dean probably would not have had so many generals with him
... that was one advantage of Kerry's military service. But
his service, and so many of his strengths were effectively
turned against him that it simply made the election just
that little bit too close. And then I think that the
election probably was stolen in all the ways that we're
seeing documented, including a healthy enough dose of fraud.

I think on the whole it might have been harder to attack
Dean, and I think we would definitely have seen a much
harsher opposition to shrub from the starting line, one that
might have been in some ways harder for the Rovians to
counter. It might have made the difference.

I'm not sure Dean would have won, I don't think we can fool
ourselves about that. It was always going to be a very hard
fight, given the direction the country is heading in.

When I went through the usual post-mortem analyses with a
number of liberal academic co-workers who supported Kerry, I
was absolutely amazed at how many of them were immediately
ready to dump on Kerry and Edwards, two days after the
election. In fact, it made me furious to hear all of them
complaining about all the things Kerry supposedly had done
wrong, that supposedly cost the election.

I told them all of you people, you people who are telling me
now that Kerry blew it because of xyz, you're the same ones
who were telling me just a few months ago that Kerry was
the man, the only one for the job. I said, am I
supposed to take you seriously now? I reminded them that I
had wanted Dean for the job, but I supported Kerry and I had
come to like the man much more than, apparently, any of them
did. I said the truth is that he ran a good campaign, and I
was totally uninterested in hearing all of this BS about
what was supposedly wrong with Kerry. Then I told them they
should all give it up and start pouring all their anger on
shrub.

After I delivered the little tirade above, there was a dead
silence in the room for about four or five beats. The only
one who responded to me was a man who had voted for shrub in
2000 in order to get the fat tax cut, though he wouldn't
admit that that was the real reason. He said it was only
because shrub would be good for science. In 2000 I had
laughed in his face when he told me this was why he was
voting for shrub. I told him then I thought shrub was
evidently a first class idiot who could not care less about
science. You can imagine how that was received at the
time. So finally this fellow pipes up and says: But Dean
would have lost, just like McGovern did. I said: Yeah, sure,
you've put your finger on the heart of the matter. And
you're probably going to tell me that shrub is going to be
very good for science now, in his second term, isn't that
right?

All the same people I'm talking about, the left-wingers
who were dumping on Kerry, also did exactly
the exact same thing with respect to Gore in 2000.

This kind of carping doesn't really start only after
elections are lost, that's the thing, it starts during the
campaign itself. It's a sickness of some on the American
left wing, I think, which I don't completely understand.

I don't mind reasonable constructive criticism, but some
people I talked to, who were supposedly going to vote for
Kerry were really openly contemptuous of him. They took
delight in pouring vitriol on the man, and in suggesting
he should do things that were obviously equivalent to
committing political suicide.

OK, maybe I've written a bit much here, but I hope I
answered your question somewhere in there, at least :)




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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:48 AM
Response to Reply #27
33. There is logic in what you say and I do hope it is true.
I too believe maintaining a low profile is the more intelligent way to proceed following Nov 2. Welcome to DU!
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madison2000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #27
37. Its tough to believe that Kerry is laying low
but I think it is still easier for me to believe than that he gave up. The latter seems totally out of character for him. Its also out of character for Gore and Clinton and other Dem leaders to sit back and do nothing.

We are in a blackout here, just hearing our own and each others voices. Lets keep the faith and hope for the best... Kerry's picking out his cabinet.
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emcguffie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #27
43. Maybe it is time now?
I accept your hypothesis about Kerry. But I am beginning to worry that it is time for him to make a statement about election fraud perhaps having happened, not just wanting to count every vote. Otherwise, there may not be enough FORCE to provoke the media.

They (media) are saying that's why they've ignored it -- because Kerry did. Is. So for the American People to take seriously the probability that fraud occurred and that Kerry won the election, they have to see some evidence, from Kerry, that he cares about it, and that he is ready for the fight. For them to allow themselves to have hope, they have to see that it is possible that the election be overturned. When people are demoralized they give up, and they don't even want to hear about it, because it is too painful.

By the way, I think we have to plan for the fight. When the Repugs say no no no no no way will we refuse Ohio's electors, no matter what, we have to be ready to hit the barricades in a very big way, and be determined, undeterable. I think we should carefully pick locations for resistance in order to consolidate the bodies that can and will show up. Remember the storm troopers in Florida in 2000?

Does anybody agree with that? Hey, Ducks-in-a-row, shouldn't we get our ducks in a row?
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tuvor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #27
47. I understand what you're saying. But how much longer
can anyone realistically hold on to that? Does anyone know?

Time's running out; it's a luxury we don't have.
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Ms_Mary Donating Member (714 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #27
49. All silence is doing is making me more disillusioned
As badly as I would LOVE to believe what you are saying, I just can't. If it's happening, I want to HEAR about it, and not just here and on the internet. After my 5 year old asked me out of the blue this morning why Kerry lost the election, I'm in a funk.
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november3rd Donating Member (653 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #27
52. Fire up!
Exactly.

This is why the fire under Blackwell and Congress has to ignite from grass roots.

They burn out quickly but they provide a lot of light -- and Ohio is prarie country -- there's plenty of grass to burn.

Kerry is relying almost completely on Sharpton, Jackson and Conyers to shoulder the wheel on getting this issue rolling. Why? Because none of us fat, rich, white folks are willings to work up a sweat, get our hands dirty and stick our necks out.

Kerry can't come in until there's a clear popular movement/mandate -- otherwise he'll be Bob Novak's and Sean Hannitty's 'sore loser' or 'grandstanding publicity hound.'

We got to crank this thing up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #27
58. Excellent post, thanks!
The fact is, we can't tell for sure just WHAT Kerry is up to right now, or Michael Moore either. If they are actively organizing an anti-fraud case, there are good reasons why it isn't public yet.

On the other hand, if they are sitting morosely on their butts and totally giving up, despite their lifetime pattern of doing the opposite, would it really make a difference in what WE should do about the situation?

We need to keep our spirits up and gather the facts about the fraud, support the people who are taking public stands, press for fair media coverage. Whatever Kerry and his people are doing, our job is unchanged: not to give up, to do everything we can to promote gathering and exposing the truth.

Bad-talking Kerry undermines us, in my opinion. It just makes us feel and look bad. We need to stay positive and on-message.
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suziedemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 08:19 PM
Response to Reply #27
63. Please God - I hope you are right!
Another 4 years of Bush terrifies me!
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jmowreader Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #5
40. I think the second is really the case
A good courtroom lawyer is first a good actor. Any good lawyer is a great technician; to do well in a courtroom situation you have to be able to move people to your point of view, and that's what actors do.

If Kerry was out there being proactive in righting this terrible wrong against him, the result would be that the "liberal" press, the talking heads and everyone on the right would be all over Kerry and how he should "just give it up and accept the inevitable." But if Kerry keeps his head down, manages this thing behind the scenes and doesn't come out until he can PROVE Bush stole the election, the shit's going to be far different.

When the Repugs realize Bush treated the national election for president of the United States like it was some kind of West Texas sheriff's election, where someone's SUPPOSED to steal it, his support among his base will drop precipitously. Those people believe in Law and Order; Bush only believes in Bush.
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KeireG Donating Member (115 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:59 AM
Response to Original message
6. Because...
it is my understanding that in a recount the spoiled ballots will be counted. In addition to the hand counting of ballots counted by machines.
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senegal1 Donating Member (489 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. are the spoiled ballots the uncounted ballots the poster refers to?
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:26 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Spoiled ballots and uncounted ballots are mostly the same thing
Mostly punch card hanging chads, etc. and mostly by Kerry voters;
see the URL
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malatesta1137 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:28 AM
Response to Original message
9. Kerry wouldn't claim the Presidency
even if Bush asked him. "For the good of the Nation", he'd say.

We were all scammed.
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OneBlueSky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:41 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. ya know, you're right . . .
but "good of the nation" would only be the cover story for public consumption . . . the real reason is that he want's no part of the mess that BushCo has created . . . he knows that if he's president-- with a Republican Congress -- it will be open season on him from the right as all of Bush's rubber checks come due . . . he'll be blamed for the war, the economy, the budget deficit, job losses, everything . . . and he knows it . . . therefore, he'd just as soon sit this one out and wait for 2008 . . . what he fails to appreciate is that by sitting this one out, he's killing any chance he may have had for 2008 . . . a lot of voters will desert him, and the Republican BBV folks will do unto us what they did this year, and two years ago, and four years ago . . .
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malatesta1137 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:46 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Kerry should resign his Senate right now
if this is the reason. So he's thinking about his career, NOT about the country's best interest.

Kerry became irrelevant, I don't really care what he does or says.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 02:00 AM
Response to Reply #13
20. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
malatesta1137 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 02:12 AM
Response to Reply #20
23. You are too naive
to realize the gravity of his silence. The gravity of his inaction. Four more years of global holocaust are upon us and Kerry is doing NOTHING to stop it. Evidence of election fraud ABOUNDS.

You've put me on your ignore list ten times already, next time, dear, make sure you leave me there FOREVER.
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New Earth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 02:15 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. actually i only did it once
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #24
55. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #23
42. aren't you the one who said you were happy Tom Daschle lost ?
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malatesta1137 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:33 PM
Response to Reply #42
53. I'm happy he's not the leader anymore
why, are you sad? He'd been nothing but a Bush enabler.
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 04:07 AM
Response to Reply #53
60. helping prevent right wing judges from being confirmed
is not being an enabler to me. fighting against vouchers is not being an enabler to me. standing up against gay bashing when in a state where a majority of people support anti gay laws is not being an enabler to me.

but i guess that issue isn't that important to some as it is to me, especially those who start posts saying they are happy Daschle lost when it means someone like John Thune is coming into the Senate.

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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #20
57. What is Lyric Poetry Website -- wish these weren't titled with
that - makes them look like jokes or something. Otherwise -- Great Find ! I couldn't get the second link to work.
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BlueCaliDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:59 AM
Response to Reply #13
36. So You're Saying Kerry, Not Bush, Should Resign? N/T
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malatesta1137 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #36
54. Bush should be in jail
along with those who turned the other way, and that includes many who call themselves (d)Democrats.
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RevCheesehead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:48 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. But, there's so much more at stake than Kerry's legacy.
There's "what the hell can we do about Iraq?"

After hearing the news tonight, I am more discouraged than ever. This damned war is going to go on forever - and STILL there is no exit strategy in sight. While shrub remains in office, he has no desire to leave Iraq. War brings jobs and $$ for his buddies, drives up prices, and demands that we all go along with our "patriotic duty."

I think we need Kerry now, more than ever before.
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malatesta1137 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:56 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. we do need Kerry now
but Kerry doesn't need us.
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Griffy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:51 AM
Response to Reply #11
16. and so Kerry will be prez, whether or not he likes it! lol n/t
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sepia_steel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:57 AM
Response to Reply #11
19. what the hell?
why would he run in the first place?? He WANTED to be our president.
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dmac Donating Member (414 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 02:30 AM
Response to Reply #11
26. while i understand with what you are saying
I believe that if Kerry really loves our country (and I believe he does) he will try to rescue her, even knowing that he will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. I believe he will even to his own detriment. While the motives you describe are understandable (human behavior), I think they reflect a selfishness that I hope Kerry doesn't possess. I think he worries too that every day * is in office is a day too long. Damages are accruing at lightning speed anyway - but * hasn't accepted blame for a single thing that has gone wrong these last 4 years - why start now? Kerry would "for the good of the country" let a fraudulent election stand? I think "for the good of the country" he will do what the vote demands he do. And if these numbers/remarks are accurate, I think things can really go our way. That is my hope and my prayer anyway.
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Matilda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 03:51 AM
Response to Reply #11
29. There would be an even worse mess to clear up in 2008.
Given that Bush is continuing on the same road, the deficit will
continue to rise, the mess in Iraq will only get worse (and there
may also be similar havoc in Iran and/or Syria by then). And who
knows what the environmental problems will be under his tender
ministrations, this good steward of the land. As for unemployment
and the divide between rich and poor, it doesn't bear thinking about.

If Bush isn't stopped now, I sure wouldn't want to be in the shoes of
the Democratic candidate in 2008.
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tavalon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #11
46. So Kerry busted his butt
just to gratefully concede? While I don't share the pie in the sky point of view of many of the posters here (I don't really think Kerry is working behind the scenes), this just doesn't make sense to me. What did he have to gain from this?
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Griffy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:49 AM
Response to Reply #9
15. Kerry, turn down the presidency, unlikly
to be the president has been his dream
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hippiechick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:54 AM
Response to Reply #9
35. I agree with you Malatesta
:hippie:
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:41 AM
Response to Original message
12. So how many votes are we talking about here?
Lots of links but how many votes?
The 93,000 spoiled ones won't be enough unless there was also massive, provable, fraud or mistakes in the count. And are they only recounting 3% to start with, and how are these chosen and by whom?
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pointsoflight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:54 AM
Response to Original message
17. Excellent links, highly recommended. n/t
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mulethree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 02:06 AM
Response to Original message
21. indeed, nobody asked today
A recount can fix counting fraud, some spoilage and hopefully shuffled ballots. Possibly enough.

But the registration fraud, the vote suppression, the screwy exit polls, the screwy media who won't demand accounting of the screwy exit polls they paid for ( our survey input, our commercial $$ ), the proprietary counting software, the closed door counting, the elections being run by unelected and unaccountable politicians.... A recount won't undo any of that or even expose it.

What do we do about the second category?

And if Bush then says - OK lets recount some close state I lost
Will the supreme court declare that a presidential recount is invalid unless the whole country is recounted, and theres no time for that because the ice sculpture for the inaguration is melting?
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Dolphyn Donating Member (152 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 02:11 AM
Response to Original message
22. Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 02:41 AM by Dolphyn
Wow, this guy has done a lot of work!

An index of his 2004 election work is here:
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm

It looks like he's no stranger to testimony based on statistics:
http://www.cardnm.org/techsecfrm_a.html
http://www.nuclearactive.org/wipp/hearings/phillips.html
I wonder how those cases turned out.

Is Arnebeck using Phillips' analysis?

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m.standridge Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 03:46 AM
Response to Reply #22
28. Plain Dealer online tonight (12/8)
has "Untangling the Controversies" a detailed attempt to put us all at rest about what happened.
They cover a lot of ground, including quoting a pollster who decries Professor Freeman's "Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy" paper at U. Penn.
They also maintain that it's unclear what party the skipped voters in some counties belonged to.
They seem to almost gloss over the Warren County incident, quoting the Demo. lawyer who originally complained about having to show id before he could get in. They seem to ignore what could have been a few missing minutes in which no Dems were present, while the attorney--and others Dems--ids were checked.
There's a need to reassure that everything's alright, to make sure everyone knows they aren't trying to promulgate "conspiracy theory."
They make it out that it is the elections personnel--rather than actions and complaints by groups and investigators, and even individuals--that are finding the glitches, anomalies and oddities that have raised eyebrows.
In fact, as you note, Professor Phillips has found a lot, and he's no elections clerk.
They gloss over--I think--one other point: while mentioning that glitches have been found and also allowing that someone could tamper with computers and computer results, they say this is "counteracted" by a "checks and balances" system because county elections boards include equal numbers of Dems and Reps.
This is a bit of a cop out, since a GOP-oriented effort would be into the computers, and wouldn't be affected by how many Demos were on the county board.
Meanwhile, some Demos in OH are making relatively light, in this story, of the idea of some missing votes, or some errors as to how many votes versus registered voters, were there. They say "they" have found all of this.
Out in NV, meanwhile, a link here at DU describes how poster "NVMojo" was the actual source of the discovery of 271 missing votes in a heavily GOP county. He found them while checking for the previous canvas double-check of the Greens before they dropped the recount.
He discovered the board of elections and the clerk had not found the missing votes, which were on a cannister in some convention center.
They hadn't bothered to look closely enough at the poll books and registration lists to double-check. NVMojo found this error, not the clerk, and pointed it out to her. ONLY THEN did she fix it. But the local media story, makes it out that it was the clerks who found and fixed the problem.
Academicians who don't agree with Phillips and Freeman's somewhat more skeptical views, are basing their arguments on conjecture, not on data, any more than the Professors are. Admittedly, there's a possibility that the exit polls could have erred, but for them to have erred at least three times to the extent cited by Professor Freeman, seems unlikely. They erred not only in the pivotal states, but at the national level. The pollster who critiques Freeman et al, makes it out that the error was in a "close" election, so it doesn't count. But it's the LEVEL of the error that's significant. It wasn't just a fraction of a percent, it was several percent. The article makes it sound like it was just a fraction of a percent "in a close election."
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:17 AM
Response to Reply #28
39. Regarding the Kerry lawyer who was allowed into Warren County BoE
He had to split his time between 2 rooms. I emailed Dr. Jones of the U of Iowa a hypothetical on Warren and he said:

On Dec 7, 2004, at 5:25 PM, Susan wrote:

> Warren County Ohio decides on Oct. 25 to bar the press
> from watching the tallying of votes and decides to use
> a Homeland Security threat as an excuse to bar the
> press. They do not publicize this and the press
> including an AP reporter show up on Nov. 2 but are
> not allowed entry.

At this point, you're up a creek without a paddle. Any time
that observers are barred from the tally room, so that only
insiders have access to the evidence, you've got a setup where
anything can happen.

> If some person or persons decided to switch Kerry
> votes into the Bush column by tampering with Triad
> Governmental Systems vote counting software

They could tamper with the ballots themselves at this point!
The entire situation is entirely unacceptable.

Doug Jones
jones@cs.uiowa.edu

My original hypothetical before snipping was:
Dr. Jones, Thank you for answering. I have studied
your very informative web site but I am still unclear
on how punch cards are safeguarded from election
fraud. So here is my hypothetical scenario.

Warren County Ohio decides on Oct. 25 to bar the press
from watching the tallying of votes and decides to use
a Homeland Security threat as an excuse to bar the
press. They do not publicize this and the press
including an AP reporter show up on Nov. 2 but are
not allowed entry.

If some person or persons decided to switch Kerry
votes into the Bush column by tampering with Triad
Governmental Systems vote counting software (or Access
database) but they had a little problem because the
punch cards the Kerry voters had punched were evidence
that needed to turn into an equal number of punch
cards that have Bush votes voted with a stylus, how
would they be able to accomplish this?

Is there a method for insuring all punch card ballots
obtained by a particular county are accounted for at
the end of an election? Is there a serial number on
the ballots that makes it impossible to make disapear
a large number of ballots that would have been voted
scattered throughout a block of ballots and replaced
with a block of ballots from the end of the block of
ballots?. Are all unvoted ballots required to be
turned in at the time that the polls close?

More on Dr. Jones:

http://www.cs.uiowa.edu/~jones/cards/chad.html

http://www.cs.uiowa.edu/~jones/voting/
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m.standridge Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #39
50. Thanks--have you seen the
Plain Dealer online article on this of 12/8? They include it in a list of "explained" anomalies of the election. The overall upshot of the article, was that, there weren't enough significant anomalies to overturn the results, but they don't completely rule out that "possibly hundreds" of Democratic and Republican ballots may not have been counted, or that some hundreds of voters were unfairly disenfranchised.
But this about Warren County was, for me, the most somewhat alarming aspect of the article, as they, as I noted, seemed to more or less gloss over this incident.
The Kerry lawyer, as quoted in the current Plain Dealer piece, is claimed to have said that "it was all open and above board. Democrats and Republicans were there."
Yet, at the very start, he was complaining about being DELAYED as to getting into the room or building due to having to show I.d. And, you're saying, he also had to visit TWO rooms to cover everything. So, it's those few minutes, maybe pre-planned at least some of these possible illegal shenanigans could have occurred. (The word "shenanigans" is too soft, somehow. These were irregularities, if they happened. Highly illegal acts. )
A headline story at another, or that, paper or at AP, earlier--couple of weeks ago maybe--strongly noted that "FBI didn't warn Warren County of terrorist threat" and ended with one female elections official there admitting "it was overkill." It was said that someone was "investigating" the claim.
Now, Plain Dealer is trying to tell us, everything's cool, not to worry, it was a smooth as silk election.
Well, maybe a smooth as silk OPERATION. I don't know about a smooth as silk election, though!
They note that people have filed some additional lawsuits regarding disenfranchised voters, and that groups want further investigations. They strongly repeat, though, over and over, that both Democrats and Repubs were on the elections boards in the controversial areas. And they repeatedly quote various Ohio state Democrats who are variously quoted--perhaps out of context?--as saying they more or less feel ok about their particular counties or areas.
I just, I come away with a certain sense of a glossing over. I recognize people have "over reacted". That's not really the right word, though. It's more, the sense that something's wrong, but not knowing exactly where to focus the concern. The general public, after all, has to pick up what it can, where it can, when it can.
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #50
56. ANYONE regardless of party affiliation could be "on the take"
Because that is what it would involve. Just like with the mafia anyone could be the "dirty cop".

That Kerry lawyer also had to piss several times that night I am sure. The Warren count was the last county in OH to finish tallying votes. Think about that. Cuyahoga beat podunkville Warren County.

According to Dr. Jones of the U of Iowa:

from:
http://www.cs.uiowa.edu/~jones/voting/counting.html

At each level, the following totals must be reported:
a: ballots distributed
b: ballots rejected (including spoiled ballots)
c: ballots challenged
d: ballots voted
e: ballots unaccounted for

At any point a = b+c+d+e.

On receipt of a report, if this condition is not met, the report should be rejected. On receipt of these numbers from a lower level in the hierarchy, the sum of the final four ballot counts should equal the number of ballots distributed. If this condition is not met, the counters at the lower level in the hierarchy have made an accounting mistake and should search for the source of their error.
At some levels, ballots unaccounted for may include legitimate causes such as absentee or vote-by-mail ballots expected but not yet received; as these come in, or when they are counted, they will be added to the appropriate total. When the deadline for absentee ballots passes, all outstanding absentee ballots should be removed from the unaccounted for category and added to the count of rejected ballots.

As the process of dealing with challenged ballots proceeds, challenged ballots will be transferred either to the voted ballot category, if the challenge board deems the ballot to be legal, or to the rejected ballot category if the board deems the ballot to be illegal. This process may be quite slow, and in fact, it may still be unfinished at the time a winner is declared and the counting terminated.

In summing the reports from multiple reporting agencies at lower levels in the hierarchy, the sums should be computed separately for each category of ballots, and the totals should also satisfy the rule that the totals for the final four categories should sum to the total for the number of ballots distributed. When the deadline passes by which these ballots are required to be received, the not-yet received ballots may be classified as spoiled ballots

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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:52 AM
Response to Reply #22
34. Have you googled RH Phillips Phd?
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dmac Donating Member (414 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 02:20 AM
Response to Original message
25. I could not get this link to work -
not even by cutting and pasting into the browser. Is there an error on your end or is the site down or something? Thanks.
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:44 AM
Response to Original message
32. Kick
:kick:
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:06 AM
Response to Original message
38. It's times like these I wish I were more mathematically inclined.
When I say I squeaked through my statistics requirement for my undergraduate major I mean ssqqquueeaaakkkeeedd.
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BamaBecky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #38
45. I can relate !
I was decent in math even in college, but these "numbers" just confuse me. I even took statistics. When I look at these analysis, I wonder if I should get excited. And then even if the numbers are rock solid, will anything be done about it. I have tried so hard to stay positive, when many are telling me to "get over" it. This has just been a rough ride.
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m.standridge Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #45
51. the only thing I can put together re: math caution
is this about the "disqualified" ballots.
That looks like a lot more votes than it could ever be.
There were over 92,000 disqualifieds in OH.
But only about 1/4 of disqualifieds, at best, ever turn out to be actual votes at all, for anyone.
And, of that 1/4, Kerry might get, maybe, 54%, depending on what area, etc. (a pro-Kerry area, or a Bush area) they were mostly coming from.
It would about, maybe, 13,000 Kerry votes, and some thousands of Bush votes.

The other thing, is, the precincts in Cuyahoga where there were more votes than registered voters?
Well, what if those were actually Democrats? Actually, Cuyahoga is Demo-oriented and has a lot of Dems on the staffs there.
So, it might be those were Provisionals that some clerks allowed to be counted, and if so some of them are Kerry votes.
So, those are two things that might need to be factored in.
But a lot of the media stuff still has a glossing over quality to it, and I still am wondering about this in Warren County.
In other words, I'm no math whiz, either, but with this recount stuff (I remember from Florida before) it can be tens of thousands of ballots, and just be a few votes come out of it (this is especially true of ballots disqualified as "over votes"; "under votes" have a higher number that turn out, even than over votes do.
So, it can look like a lot, and not be much in the way of votes.
But I think this Warren County thing, could be where enough votes might have been involved to really mess things up for Kerry, and have involved enough votes to turn OH around. I don't have numbers for that, just a general sense that something was amiss.
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NCvoter Donating Member (44 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
41. how will recount prove it?
with paperless voting and all?
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Quakerfriend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #41
48. Having some good understanding of stats
myself, I am thrilled with what Dr. Phillips has provided. However, they cannot use stats as the entire basis for their argument in court. Arnebeck mentioned that they would be using the work of "3 scientists". I assume this means Friedman, Phillips and ? the third. I hope and pray that they will call Avi Rubin (of John Hopkins)to testify. As he did much of the original report detailing the many weaknesses of DIebolds open source code. And, this is included in a document drawn up many months before this past election. What do you all think?
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sabra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #48
59. Dr. Rubin Would Be Excellent! n/t
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GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #59
62. Yes, I met him at the Common Cause Hearing on Tuesday

He is totally against the machines in this election.
His message that day was to take the machines out of the
election process. I hope he is in on these actions as well.
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Alizaryn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 08:30 PM
Response to Original message
64. With this scenario, what hope is there of a recount picking up
the lost or swapped votes? Any idea?
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