Staticians, What're Odds Recounted Tallies Would Match PERFECTLY?

[KittyWampus]

Somehow it seems really hard to belief that the recounted votes coming
in from Ohio would match the original tallies PERFECTLY?

I mean, it's an imperfect process. Chads get dislodged from first count to the second... paper gets bent etc.

Has any recount ever come out EXACTLY the same as the original count?

[helderheid]

1. Bingo

My thoughts exactly. What is that horrible smell????

[MarkusQ]

2. You can't even begin to estimate this without known lots of details

What are the odds of a chad coming off? Of a machine burping?

It's not a reasonable question to try to quantify.

--MarkusQ

[roseBudd]

4. they shouldn't because we are talking punch cards in 70% of counties

[KittyWampus]

11. Have ANY Other Recounts Yielded Exactly The Same Number Twice?

[Lucky Luciano]

3. most likely this is unquantifiable....

I would say that the probability is pretty close to zero though.

There are way too many variables (and things that need to be intimately known) at work to really give a serious answer.

[MrUnderhill]

5. For ALL of the counties? Pretty near zero

But I'd expect MOST of the counties to have little to no change.

It depends on a lot of factors, but in the punchcard counties we're likely to see at least a FEW votes change in a good percentage of cases EVEN IF there was no hanky panky.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

6. Ive been bothered by that too.

And isn't it TWO counties now, where that has happened? What did Cobb say yesterday, about the compter rep who came in to the BOE and wrote a code number on a board and told them to use it so that the recount totals would match the original...?

[libertypirate]

7. B I N G O !

[sabra]

8. NH recount had small discrepancies, Washington too!

Zero change is Very unlikely. IMOP.

[MrUnderhill]

10. Right... but not in EVERY county, and not with THIS type of count.

Remember that they have already weeded out the votes that the machines didn't count (under/over votes) which is where most of the changes were found in Florida. They've also made all of the decisions on which provisional votes are valid and THAT isn't revisted in this type of count either. It's just a check to make sure the votes were tabulated correctly... and it's likely that THIS number would be pretty consistent - probably in half of the counties.

We've only seen one or two so far, right? If they keep coming in like this I'd start to wonder.

[godel escher bach]

15. ditto n/t

[newyawker99]

21. Hi godel escher bach!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[sabra]

16. Is the recount in OH similar to the one in WA Gov recount?

If so, then according to the recount update: http://vote.wa.gov/general/recount_resultsbycounty.aspx, all counties that are ~6k and higher are having discrepencies...

[MrUnderhill]

17. Yes... no... and maybe.

Different? Certainly, it's entertaining how varied election law is state-to-state.

But remember that the hand count in Ohio is for only (roughly) 3% of the ballots. So to get the same number of ballots counted for comparison, it would only be counties with ~200k votes or more. There aren't very many of those in Ohio.

Certainly, the larger the number of votes in a county, the greater the chances of a variation (this assumes a LACK of fraud).

To a large extent it depends on the TYPE of recount. Are the counties in WA revisiting spoiled ballots? Are they re-assesing rejected ballots of other types? Are the ballots of a type that can change themselves (as punchards can do in a small percentage of cases)?

[sabra]

19. Here are some answers...

http://www.secstate.wa.gov/elections/pdf/Manual%20Recount%20FAQ.pdf

[sabra]

9. Kick! This is important...

[IAMREALITY]

12. Cryingshame, Pat On The Back To Ya!

Seriously, I think this is definitely a so-far overlooked quite important question.

[McCamy Taylor]

13. something is rotten, and i think it is blackwell's brain

[buddysmellgood]

14. Why are we so good at counting money but so poor at counting votes?

[ClintCooper2003]

18. Well, let's look at the machine recount from Washington state.

The vast majority of counties showed differences. I don't think any of them were exactly the same.

[seabeyond]

20. it helps when you have the number printed on the wall

to be able to match to the count. whatya think

[TexasChick]

22. Yep! Sounds about right to me! n/t

[jsascj]

24. Interesting how that little tidbit

(number on the wall) came out BEFORE the count was complete. To me, it further validates the story of the computer 'fix-it guy' in the office. Now, what I'd like to know is if the numbers on the wall match the numbers reported in the recount.

[KittyWampus]

25. It Would Be Kind Of A Strange Coincidence

[Hobbes199]

23. If you've already tested all the ballots a dozen times

And removed any that wouldn't read correctly, then it doesn't seem that far fetched. Of course, that would assume a lot.