Yes, that's what Mitofsky said right before Nov 2.
They have been always been very accurate except for just TWO elections.
So much for the STRAWMAN arguments about exit polls not being accurate. Even Mitofsky agrees they've been damn good - except when a BUSH is running. Then all bets are off.
Check the NEP web site.
http://www.exit-poll.net/faq.htmlHere are some FAQ highlights (the CAPS are mine):
What is the National Election Pool (NEP)?
The National Election Pool is a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News.
snip
What happened to Voter News Service (VNS)?
VNS was DISBANDED after the 2002 election. Its functions were assumed by the AP and Edison/Mitofsky.
What is an exit poll?
Exit polls are interviews with voters after they have cast their votes at their polling places. The polling places are a SCIENTIFICALLY selected sample of polling places that collectively represent a state, or for the national exit poll they represent the nation.
snip
How do you select sample precincts?
The polling places were selected as a STRATIFIED PROBABILITY sample of each state. The purpose of stratification is to group together precincts with similar vote characteristics...
Each voter in a state has approximately the SAME CHANCE of being selected in the sample.
snip
How are projections made?
Projections are based on models that use votes from three (3) different sources -- exit poll interviews with voters, vote returns as reported by election officials from the SAMPLE PRECINCTS, and tabulations of votes by county. The models make estimates from ALL these vote reports. The models also indicate the LIKELY ERROR in the estimates. The best model estimate may be used to make a projection if it passes a series of tests.
snip
How do absentee votes affect projections?
SNIP
They are INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE SHORTLY before the election. They are asked the same questions as voters interviewed in the exit polls. For the 13 states where absentee voters will be sampled by telephone their results will be combined with those of Election Day voters.
Which states will have absentee voter surveys?
The states where absentee/early voters will be interviewed are: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas and Washington State. Absentee voters in these states made up 13% OF THE TOTAL NATIONAL VOTE in the 2000 presidential election. ANOTHER 3% of the 2000 TOTAL VOTE WAS CAST ABSENTEE IN OTHER STATES in 2000 and where there is no absentee/early voter telephone poll.
What is the Margin of Error for an exit poll?
Every number estimated from a sample may depart from the official vote count. The difference between a sample result and the number one would get if everyone who cast a vote was interviewed in exactly the same way is called the sampling error. That does not mean the sample result is wrong. Instead, it refers to the potential error due to sampling. The margin of error for a 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL is about +/- 3% for a typical characteristic from the national exit poll and +/-4% for a typical state exit poll. Characteristics that are more concentrated in a few polling places, such as race, have larger sampling errors. Other nonsampling factors may increase the total error.
snip
How will these exit polls and projections differ from what was done in 2000?
SINCE 2000 ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND IMPROVED. Polls of absentee voters in 13 states will be conducted so the ABSENTEE vote can be COMBINED with the vote cast at the polls on Election Day. QUALITY CONTROL PROCEDURES ARE MORE SOPHISTICATED. The computer system is NEW this year and has been EXTENSIVELY TESTED.
Are these new models and procedures going to assure the public that there will be no mistakes?
The MISTAKES made during the 2000 election were UNUSUAL. During the 10 YEARS BEFORE THAT VNS and the poll before it made ONLY ONE MISTAKE from 1990 to 1998. Before that, when the broadcast networks made their own projections, there were similarly VERY FEW MISTAKES during the 1970s and 1980s. There were NO MISTAKES made during the limited coverage in 2002. There were NO MISTAKES made during the 2004 Democratic presidential primaries.
MANY LESSONS WERE LEARNED from the 2000 experience and CHANGES WERE MADE TO SEE THAT MISTAKES LIKE THE ONES IN 2000 WOULD BE VERY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR AGAIN. Having said all that, there is no way to guarantee that a mistake in identifying a winner will not happen again. If it does, the PUBLIC CAN BE ASSURES THAT THE MISTAKE WILL BE PUBLICLY ACKNOWLEDGED AND CORRECTED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. Even in 2000 the MISTAKES WERE CORRECTED by the SAME PEOPLE who made them within a SHORT TIME.
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