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CLUES? Exit Poll Deviations weighted by EV; Voting Machine Mix by state

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 01:04 PM
Original message
CLUES? Exit Poll Deviations weighted by EV; Voting Machine Mix by state
Edited on Sat Dec-18-04 01:55 PM by TruthIsAll
It's the Red Shift again, this time the deviations weighted by Electoral Vote. This shows where Bush got his biggest popular vote bang for the exit poll deviation buck.

Also included on the graph for each state: the voting machines used, by percentage. Thanks to Pobeka for this data.

Check NY. Punched cards using Levers. Could it be that lots of the punch cards were spoiled due to machine malfunction or something else? Could it be that this has been going on forever as these machines go way back to the beginning of the 20th century?

They say that 3-5 million punched card votes are spoiled every year, due to a combination of machine malfunction and fraud. We know what happened in FL 2000 and OH 2004. Hundreds of thousands of spoiled votes. And the vast majority of them were in Democratic districts.



For those who prefer their data in table form, see Post # 1.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 01:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. Data Table: Kerry Exit Poll Deviations and Voting Machine Types
Edited on Sat Dec-18-04 01:33 PM by TruthIsAll
Kerry Exit Poll Deviations and Voting Machine Percentage Mix

St	EV*Dev	EV	Dev	Screen	Opti	Punch	Lever	Paper
NY	-118	31	-3.8	1	0	0	99	0
FL	-82	27	-3.0	56	44	0	0	0
PA	-70	21	-3.4	26	12	12	49	1
OH	-62	20	-3.1	16	12	72	0	0
NC	-60	15	-4.0	43	43	9	2	5

IL	-42	21	-2.0	0	32	63	0	5
MA	-40	12	-3.4	0	69	0	6	25
SC	-37	8	-4.6	86	14	0	0	0
AL	-36	9	-4.0	15	85	0	0	0
MN	-30	10	-3.0	0	91	0	0	9

GA	-24	15	-1.6	100	0	0	0	0
CT	-24	7	-3.4	0	0	0	100	0
NE	-22	5	-4.4	0	56	0	0	44
NJ	-22	15	-1.5	73	1	0	25	0
NH	-20	4	-4.9	0	65	0	0	35

MS	-20	6	-3.3	15	68	9	8	0
LA	-19	9	-2.1	54	0	0	46	0
WV	-18	10	-1.8	8	42	37	6	7
IN	-18	11	-1.6	79	0	20	1	1
MI	-17	17	-1.0	4	60	20	12	4

MO	-17	11	-1.5	0	12	65	0	23
WA	-16	11	-1.4	14	63	23	0	0
AZ	-15	6	-2.6	0	100	0	0	0
DE	-15	3	-5.0	100	0	0	0	0
UT	-15	5	-2.9	0	0	9	0	91

CO	-15	9	-1.6	37	61	1	0	0
VT	-14	3	-4.8	0	51	0	0	49
RI	-14	4	-3.4	0	100	0	0	0
AK	-13	3	-4.4	0	90	0	0	10
ID	-12	4	-2.9	0	33	60	0	8

AR	-11	10	-1.1	5	65	17	9	4
WI	-10	5	-2.0	0	54	0	0	46
NM	-9	5	-1.8	90	10	0	0	0
IA	-8	7	-1.2	11	88	0	1	0
KY	-8	8	-1.0	81	17	0	2	0

OK	-7	7	-1.0	0	100	0	0	0
MD	-4	10	-0.4	100	0	0	0	0
NV	-4	5	-0.9	100	0	0	0	0
WY	-4	3	-1.3	2	76	14	3	5
ME	-3	4	-0.7	0	67	0	0	33

DC	0	3	-0.1	50	50	0	0	0
MT	0	3	0.0	0	81	13	0	6
VA	3	13	0.3	33	22	16	27	1
SD	5	3	1.6	0	1	0	0	99
HI	5	4	1.2	50	50	0	0	0

OR	6	7	0.8	0	18	0	0	82
ND	7	3	2.4	7	90	0	0	3
KS	14	6	2.4	37	60	0	0	3
TN	17	11	1.5	75	10	11	5	0
TX	47	34	1.4	45	45	5	3	2

CA	86	55	1.6	29	66	4	0	0

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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Keep kicked
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super simian Donating Member (292 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 01:22 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. What does it mean?
It looks incredible, but all these numbers make my head swim!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 01:30 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. The relationship of deviations to machines may provide some clues
Edited on Sat Dec-18-04 01:51 PM by TruthIsAll
It might be of interest to correlate the Exit poll deviations and and the machines used by state.

There may be some nuggets here. You just need to look for them.

I have not done a statistical correlation of voting machine type vs. deviation. The graph might provide a visual clue.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU! eom
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super simian Donating Member (292 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Thanks
I looked some more, but I'm clueless about statistics and really wouldn't know what to look for. Except that it seems like an interesting study. I think I'm hoping it will tell me that Bush is not really the president. :shrug: No chance, huh? :eyes:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 02:35 PM
Response to Reply #4
13. 13 OF THE TOP 16 Electoral Vote Deviations were BEYOND the EXIT POLL MOE
13 OUT OF THE TOP 16 Electoral Vote states Deviation * EV) which swung to BUSH were BEYOND the exit polling MOE for the state.

For example, the MOE for FL was 1.84% based on the 2816 exit poll sample.

What does THAT tell you?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. 13 of 16: THAT IS REAL DATA CLUSTERING... n/t
tia
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super simian Donating Member (292 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #13
28. Tells me...
...that my instincts are dead on.

There's just no way in hell that a*shole ever got elected. :grr:
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #13
40. Red - Blue State Comparison of Exit Poll Difference .. and the Loser is
Kerry. The exit poll difference correlations are interesting.

Simply put:

The bigger the electoral prize, the bigger the shift "in blue states."
The higher the Kerry margin, the lower the shift "in blue states."
In Red states, almost no correlations (= no fraud).

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OKthatsIT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #4
15. I would like to work with you and create 'visual graphs/overlays'
I think we need to describe these statistics in a visual format. 30% of us can grasp information immediately with a graphic concept.

This is also appropriate where one approaches the court with visual aids. Any judge who sees the undeniable, unrefutable evidence in simple truths is gonna realize that the masses can grasp this evidence as well.

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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #15
41. For a Lot of Graphs RE Ohio, Florida, Nevada, more
just follow this link and download the spreadsheets and view samples. You can use the raw data to make many more. And they keep getting updated.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #3
31. GRAPH OF REPORTED MACHINE PROBLEMS AND RED SHIFT TO BUSH
Edited on Sun Dec-19-04 12:19 AM by TruthIsAll
Machine problems appear to be most prevalent in states with large minority populations - AND A SIGNIFICANT RED SHIFT TO BUSH.

Look at LA! and NM, GA, FL, OH, PA, NY, DC....

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #31
34. AREA GRAPH OF MACHINE TYPE VS. RED SHIFT
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. Some questions...
NC: You have 5% paper, but ignatzmouse said it had a 30% absentee ballot vote (with big, impossible discrepancy on Bush margin--6%, as I recall--between ab voting and e-voting; and a similar discrepancy in the Senate vote, and in a lib ballot initiative v. Bush vote). Why only 5% paper?

NY: Do you know how the lever votes are computerized, and centrally tabulated (who manufactures central tabulators? secret source code? etc.)

I'm finding your posted tables hard to read (had a lot of trouble last night with pre-election poll/exit poll table--correlating column titles with numbers). In this one, would you briefly explain what the first column titles (EV*Dev EV Dev) and the first three numbers mean? (How do the column title abbreviations separate out into column titles? What does the asterisk mean, in EV*?)

I'm puzzled by NY and CA's first three numbers:

NY: -118 31 -3.8
CA: 86 55 1.6

What does the "-118" for NY mean?

(Note: the numbers/words in the image is so small, it's not helping.)

Have some pity for old eyes, and for us literary types. And...

THANK YOU FOR YOUR AWESOME WORK!!!!!!

I have to leave shortly, but will return to this post late tonight to study this again.
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insane_cratic_gal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. I think
Edited on Sat Dec-18-04 02:08 PM by insane_cratic_gal
Epdev.. exit poll deviance? deviance for NY would be 118..?
Ev or electroal votes x exit poll dev

deviance for NY would be 31 x 3.8% ? 1.178 ?

ok I'll shut up now.. probably doing that all wrong
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 02:24 PM
Response to Reply #9
11.  EV* Dev = the State Electoral Vote times Vote % Deviation from Exit poll
Edited on Sat Dec-18-04 02:26 PM by TruthIsAll
I do not have absentee ballot info.

I cannot tell you how Lever votes are tabulated or who makes them. Only that they have been used in NY (and in several other states) forever.

EV*DEV = ELECTORAL VOTES MULTIPLIED (*) BY THE PERCENTAGE EXIT POLL DEVIATION TO THE VOTE TALLY.

THIS IS A MEASURE OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEVIATION, SINCE ELECTORAL VOTES ARE CLOSELY CORRELATED TO THE STATE VOTING POPULATION.

NY:
ELECTORAL VOTES = 31
DEVIATION = -3.8%
EV Dev = -3.8 * 31 = -118

For CA, the deviation was to Kerry, but within the MOE

CA:
ELECTORAL VOTES = 55
DEVIATION = 1.6%

EV Dev = 1.6 * 55 = 86
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. Some info on Lever machines
Edited on Sat Dec-18-04 02:55 PM by rosebud57
http://www.cs.uiowa.edu/~jones/voting/pictures/#lever

Unfortunately, the mechanism of a lever voting machine maintains no independent record of each voter's ballot. Instead, the only record of a vote is the count maintained on the mechanical register behind each voting lever, where each register has a mechanism comparable to the odometer in a car. Not only is this vulnerable to tampering by the technicians who maintain the machine, but it means that the machine has an immense number of moving parts that are subject to wear and very difficult to completely test.

Actually Dr. Doug Jones' entire voting web site is very informative. This is the Doug Jones who gave the 7 page affidavit in response to the Triad interference with the recount in Hocking County, OH.



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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #1
19. NM is also interesting
All machines are either DRE or Optical. Totally hackable, a swing state, narrow margin of victory for Shrub, but close or within the margin of error of the exit poll. Will there ever be a recount of NM and what about those thousands of missing votes? While they could change the winner of the state, are they enough to upset the exit poll correlation to the vote?
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Goldeneye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-20-04 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #1
52. WI has 10 EV
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 01:33 PM
Response to Original message
5. Now THIS is EXCELLENT work!
And as you can see, in NY, where it's 100% mechanical lever machines, the Red Shift is still among the highest. This does NOT prove there wasn't fraud, but it does prove that the Red Shift was present, with a vengeance in fact, in a state with no electronic voting.

Thanks for posting.

Also, see my latest comments under the other thread:
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=169909>
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=169909&mesg_id=175630&page=>

Thanks!
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rdmccur Donating Member (622 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 01:44 PM
Response to Original message
8. What would really be interesting
to see would be a time history of the deviation (between exit polls and tabulation) across the US.
My guess is it would show a larger deviation early on in most significant red-shift states. Don't know if there's enough data to do this though.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
12. Central tabulation is obviously a prime suspect, because
exit poll deviation happens with all the different voting methods.

They're all susceptible to tampering (and probably were), but the critical ability to look at the exit polls and steal just enough votes to get that 51/49 victory requires the kind of control you can have by altering the GEMS database.

They could steal a lot from NY and PA to pad the popular vote margin, knowing that recounts weren't going to happen if Kerry won the state.

The need to steal in OH and FL was less, because of the closer races there. Just flip enough votes to carry the states without looking too outrageous, and not worry too much about the recounts because of the Repub. control there.

So...are we talking about tabulation at the county level? Remember that Rove's computer room had many machines, and contact at the county and even precinct level across the country.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #12
18. Does anyone know...
...how results from lever machines are tabulated?

I might be able to find the answer for NY but I believe that the machines are checked manually at warehouses by bi-partisan auditors. They are manual machines, not connected to anything!

Look at the Red Shifts on NY, CT and PA. They're just as large as the e-voting states, despite the preponderance of mechanical lever machines. What's the explanation for this?

Now we could say that ANY time ANY data is entered into ANY computer, someone might be able to come along and edit it. But we'd have to show that this was done by and for Republicans, with the Dems just standing around with their fingers up their...well...you know. This is a different scenario than compromised machines connected via modems in a client-server application.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. I remember Nadler saying at the last Conyers hearing that
he knew from personal experience that paper ballots from NY's lever machines were highly susceptible to "spoilage".

Furthermore, eventually the totals are tabulated on a PC, which could easily be covertly manipulated.

Please post if you find how NY's lever machine results are tabulated.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #21
25. I will but FYI, there's no paper ballots from these machines
There may be a printout of some kind, but it's not ballots.

I think Nadler was referring to other paper ballots, such as absentees, etc. when someone at the hearing suggested we go to 100% paper. He wasn't too keen on that. (I did see the hearings.)

A friend of mine is a NYC election attorney, a Democrat, and he has shown little or no interest in this whole thing. It's very frustrating but I can find out from him how the votes are actually tallied from the mechanical lever machines. It may also be on the web somewhere of course. From what I gather so far, it's entirely manual, except perhaps at the central tabulator level where the data is manually entered and then added up. I'll look into it.
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Igel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #18
22. It happens twice.
The when the polls close the back's opened and two bipartisan pairs of people read off the numbers and copy them on two copies of a form. (So a repub/dem pair reads, a repub/dem pair writes.) The machine is sealed (to prevent additional voting). The forms get taken to a central area and added up. That's the election night returns. I don't know if they use a computer, a calculator, or pencil-and-paper to do the adding, nor do I know what becomes of the two copies of the forms.

The official canvassing is to take place over the next week or two: I'm pretty sure each machine is returned to the central warehouse, opened up, and checked.

There was some thread about voter fraud and challenges, if I remember right (the name "Spano" comes to mind). Some weirdness with the reported totals not matching during a recount.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 01:53 AM
Response to Reply #22
32. Thanks igil
This is my understanding as well. I haven't been able to reach my friend who's actually done this personally, but I think that's how he explained it to me. I guess the issue is how the totals from across the state are added up for statewide and federal races. How would someone at the county or city level know that the totals weren't changed at a higher level? Perhaps the audits at the warehouse would reveal this, but it's a big state. I doubt they have every machine in the state in one warehouse. Still, even if it's decentralized, people can talk and confirm that the totals from the machines do match the reported results.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #32
38. So you believe the polls were hacked? Really? RU serious? n/t
Edited on Sun Dec-19-04 03:25 PM by TruthIsAll
.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-20-04 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #38
50. You bet I am! Hacked by the GOP to GOTV!
Edited on Mon Dec-20-04 02:53 PM by Bill Bored
Stop making graphs, just for moment, and think about how this one simple act explains everything:

1. A couple of co-located Mitofsky servers probably held all the polling data prior to its release. There is some talk of a server crash too, but put that aside and read on.

2. Dick Morris has blamed it on us. This stinks to high heaven. Take what THEY say and say the opposite; it's pure Orwellian logic. Freedom is tyranny, war is peace, death is life, poverty is wealth, the Dems hacked the polls to get out the vote -- NO! -- the GOP hacked the polls to get out the vote!

3. Mitofsky himself has NO confidence in this version of the polls. I've cited his letter to Olbermann already but you continue to ignore it.

4. This explains the Red shift.

5. It explains the difference in the popular vote margin.

6. What's easier to do? Hack 2 servers or 3,000 tabulators?

7. Rove did this at least once already (leaked an early exit poll) for Jeb Bush in the failed state of Florida.

8. If anyone gets caught, it's not election fraud, it's "just politics!"

9. It serves to DIVIDE OUR PARTY. By us arguing endlessly about the possibility of the BIG FRAUD, our attention is diverted from Ohio, Florida and real Election Reform and Media Reform. We embrace the Glibs and Ralph Nader, in whose interest it is to divide the Democratic party, like it or not. It's very Rovian to want to divide and weaken the opposition and this would be a very efficient way of doing it.

10. It also explains why there are Red Shifts in states without e-voting.

11. Ockam's Razor -- if you are confronted with a choice of two equally valid alternatives, take the simpler.

But please do continue with those graphs though! I like them a lot -- seriously!

On edit, I forgot to mention that if this is true, Mitofsky is probably just plain embarrassed by his lack of IT security, or whatever allowed his polls to be manipulated. So this is why he hasn't come out and admitted it. He has said they were wrong though and for the moment we have to give some credence to that.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 02:54 PM
Response to Original message
17. Correlating red shift, machine problems, and EVs:
I did a basic correlation to try to see whether reported machine problems affected the red shift more in big states, compared to the whole country.

If machine problems are random, we would expect that they relate to red shift the same, regardless of how many electoral votes a state has.

A correlation of 1.0 would indicate that two things always go together; a correlation of -1.0 would indicate they never go together. A correlation of 0.0 would indicate no particular relationship.

First, I looked at the relationship between machine problems and total population. For the whole country, the correlation is -0.015; close enough to 0. But if we look at the top 15 states in population, we get a correlation of 0.495. This suggests that somehow, the more valuable the state among the top 15, the more machine problems there were per capita.

Next, look at the relationship between machine problems and red shift. If all is random, machine problems would affect each candidate equally. We already know that that isn't true. But beyond that, where do the machine problems skew most heavily to B*? The correlation between machine problems per capita and red shift turns out to be 0.492 in the top 15 states. In the top 10 states, it's 0.558.

So the bigger the prize, the more the machine errors. And as machine errors go up, so does the red shift.

Definitely not random. They should have stolen equally from the poor and the rich if they wanted to escape detection.

:evilgrin:
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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. excellent post -- you've explained complex statistical
concepts with ordinary English.

The evidence of vote hacking is there for the whole world to see -- and so far most people overseas (Caribbean & Latin America) still haven't seen this story.

It is really complex to explain --

What people out here in the rest of the world do understand is that the US method of voting is hopelessly "fucked up".

"How can a country like America have such a primitive system of voting -- every way possible to vote, often in the same county." This was just one observation from someone living in the Caribbean.

My response -- this makes the vote so much easier to hack and to manipulate by bad people.
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Igel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. Simple answer:
"How can a country like America have such a primitive system of voting -- every way possible to vote, often in the same county."

Decentralization.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. Agreed, but so far the machine problem sample is small
< 100 right? An average of 2 per state.

So what are the actual numbers? Maybe you could add a column to TIA's table to show this.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. My calculations included 1,919 reported machine problems.
Here's the data, ranked by machine problems per capita:


State Exit poll K votes shift Prob. >MOE? by Favor Reported machine problems Voting elig. Pop. Probs. Per mil ppl.
LA 44.5 42.42 -2.08 8.80% -0.92 Bush 130 1,246,333 104.31
GA 43 41.41 -1.59 15.00% -1.41 Bush 50 850,605 58.78
DC 91 90.91 -0.09 47.60% -2.91 Bush 20 415,549 48.13
NM 51.3 49.49 -1.81 11.90% -1.19 Bush 53 1,256,228 42.19
AZ 47 44.44 -2.56 4.70% -0.44 Bush 36 1,226,111 29.36
OH 52.1 49 -3.1 2.10% Yes 0.1 Bush 240 8,357,632 28.72
PA 54.35 51 -3.35 1.40% Yes 0.35 Bush 251 9,137,942 27.47
FL 50.5 47.47 -3.03 2.40% Yes 0.03 Bush 312 11,405,256 27.36
NY 63 59.18 -3.82 0.60% Yes 0.82 Bush 179 12,755,788 14.03
CO 49.1 47.47 -1.63 14.40% -1.37 Bush 43 3,168,132 13.57
MI 52.5 51.52 -0.98 26.00% -2.02 Bush 71 7,177,100 9.89
IL 57 55 -2 9.60% -1 Bush 84 8,591,897 9.78
NJ 55 53.54 -1.46 16.90% -1.54 Bush 54 5,719,150 9.44
SC 46 41.41 -4.59 0.10% Yes 1.59 Bush 28 3,026,569 9.25
VA 45.2 45.45 0.25 56.60% -2.75 Kerry 34 5,215,501 6.52
WI 52.5 50.51 -1.99 9.60% -1.01 Bush 25 3,928,744 6.36
TX 37 38.38 1.38 81.70% -1.62 Kerry 75 13,717,144 5.47
NC 48 44 -4 0.40% Yes 1 Bush 32 5,962,213 5.37
CA 54 55.56 1.56 84.50% -1.44 Kerry 104 21,604,925 4.81
AL 41 37 -4 0.40% Yes 1 Bush 15 3,306,127 4.54
MS 43.25 40 -3.25 1.70% Yes 0.25 Bush 8 2,078,971 3.85
MT 39.75 39.8 0.05 51.20% -2.95 Kerry 2 678,519 2.95
NV 49.35 48.48 -0.87 28.60% -2.13 Bush 4 1,432,776 2.79
WY 30.9 29.59 -1.31 19.60% -1.69 Bush 1 361,972 2.76
MD 57 56.57 -0.43 38.80% -2.57 Bush 9 3,718,868 2.42
OK 35 34 -1 25.70% -2 Bush 6 2,504,660 2.4
HI 53.3 54.55 1.25 79.20% -1.75 Kerry 2 850,605 2.35
IN 41 39.39 -1.61 14.70% -1.39 Bush 8 4,470,971 1.79
MA 66 62.63 -3.37 1.40% Yes 0.37 Bush 8 4,557,561 1.76
WA 54.95 53.54 -1.41 17.80% -1.59 Bush 7 4,167,093 1.68
AR 46.6 45.45 -1.15 22.70% -1.85 Bush 3 1,956,947 1.53
MO 47.5 46 -1.5 16.40% -1.5 Bush 6 4,123,493 1.46
WV 45.25 43.43 -1.82 11.80% -1.18 Bush 2 1,398,424 1.43
TN 41.5 43 1.5 83.60% -1.5 Kerry 6 4,280,835 1.4
RI 64 60.61 -3.39 1.30% Yes 0.39 Bush 1 735,273 1.36
MN 54.5 51.52 -2.98 2.60% -0.02 Bush 4 3,554,277 1.13
KS 35 37.37 2.37 94.00% -0.63 Kerry 2 1,939,135 1.03
ME 54.75 54.08 -0.67 33.10% -2.33 Bush 1 983,468 1.02
UT 30.5 27.55 -2.95 2.70% -0.05 Bush 1 1,502,926 0.67
KY 41 40 -1 25.70% -2 Bush 2 3,071,048 0.65
AK 40.5 36.08 -4.42 0.20% Yes 1.42 Bush 0 419,884 0
VT 65 60.2 -4.8 0.10% Yes 1.8 Bush 0 467,720 0
ND 34 36.36 2.36 93.90% -0.64 Kerry 0 471,602 0
SD 37.75 39.39 1.64 85.90% -1.36 Kerry 0 554,959 0
DE 58.5 53.54 -4.96 0.10% Yes 1.96 Bush 0 571,361 0
NH 55.4 50.51 -4.89 0.10% Yes 1.89 Bush 0 935,291 0
ID 33.5 30.61 -2.89 3.00% -0.11 Bush 0 947,688 0
NE 36.75 32.32 -4.43 0.20% Yes 1.43 Bush 0 1,224,648 0
IA 50.65 49.49 -1.16 22.50% -1.84 Bush 0 2,155,725 0
CT 58.5 55.1 -3.4 1.30% Yes 0.4 Bush 0 2,377,109 0
OR 51.2 52 0.8 69.90% -2.2 Kerry 0 2,495,495 0

Total reported machine problems: 1919
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. Here's the machine problem table - easier to read
Edited on Sat Dec-18-04 11:50 PM by TruthIsAll
State	Exit	Kerry	Shift	Prob	>MOE	Favor	Prob	Reg(mm)	Prob/mml
DE	58.50	53.54	-4.96	0.10%	1.96	Bush	0	0.571	0
NH	55.40	50.51	-4.89	0.10%	1.89	Bush	0	0.935	0
VT	65.00	60.20	-4.80	0.10%	1.80	Bush	0	0.468	0
SC	46.00	41.41	-4.59	0.10%	1.59	Bush	28	3.027	9.25
NE	36.75	32.32	-4.43	0.20%	1.43	Bush	0	1.225	0
AK	40.50	36.08	-4.42	0.20%	1.42	Bush	0	0.420	0
NC	48.00	44.00	-4.00	0.40%	1.00	Bush	32	5.962	5.37
AL	41.00	37.00	-4.00	0.40%	1.00	Bush	15	3.306	4.54
NY	63.00	59.18	-3.82	0.60%	0.82	Bush	179	12.756	14.03
CT	58.50	55.10	-3.40	1.30%	0.40	Bush	0	2.377	0
RI	64.00	60.61	-3.39	1.30%	0.39	Bush	1	0.735	1.36
MA	66.00	62.63	-3.37	1.40%	0.37	Bush	8	4.558	1.76
PA	54.35	51.00	-3.35	1.40%	0.35	Bush	251	9.138	27.47
MS	43.25	40.00	-3.25	1.70%	0.25	Bush	8	2.079	3.85
OH	52.10	49.00	-3.10	2.10%	0.10	Bush	240	8.358	28.72
FL	50.50	47.47	-3.03	2.40%	0.03	Bush	312	11.405	27.36
MN	54.50	51.52	-2.98	2.60%	-0.02	Bush	4	3.554	1.13
UT	30.50	27.55	-2.95	2.70%	-0.05	Bush	1	1.503	0.67
ID	33.50	30.61	-2.89	3.00%	-0.11	Bush	0	0.948	0
AZ	47.00	44.44	-2.56	4.70%	-0.44	Bush	36	1.226	29.36
KS	35.00	37.37	2.37	94.00%	-0.63	Kerry	2	1.939	1.03
ND	34.00	36.36	2.36	93.90%	-0.64	Kerry	0	0.472	0
LA	44.50	42.42	-2.08	8.80%	-0.92	Bush	130	1.246	104.31
IL	57.00	55.00	-2.00	9.60%	-1.00	Bush	84	8.592	9.78
WI	52.50	50.51	-1.99	9.60%	-1.01	Bush	25	3.929	6.36
WV	45.25	43.43	-1.82	11.80%	-1.18	Bush	2	1.398	1.43
NM	51.30	49.49	-1.81	11.90%	-1.19	Bush	53	1.256	42.19
SD	37.75	39.39	1.64	85.90%	-1.36	Kerry	0	0.555	0
CO	49.10	47.47	-1.63	14.40%	-1.37	Bush	43	3.168	13.57
IN	41.00	39.39	-1.61	14.70%	-1.39	Bush	8	4.471	1.79
GA	43.00	41.41	-1.59	15.00%	-1.41	Bush	50	0.851	58.78
CA	54.00	55.56	1.56	84.50%	-1.44	Kerry	104	21.605	4.81
MO	47.50	46.00	-1.50	16.40%	-1.50	Bush	6	4.123	1.46
TN	41.50	43.00	1.50	83.60%	-1.50	Kerry	6	4.281	1.4
NJ	55.00	53.54	-1.46	16.90%	-1.54	Bush	54	5.719	9.44
WA	54.95	53.54	-1.41	17.80%	-1.59	Bush	7	4.167	1.68
TX	37.00	38.38	1.38	81.70%	-1.62	Kerry	75	13.717	5.47
WY	30.90	29.59	-1.31	19.60%	-1.69	Bush	1	0.362	2.76
HI	53.30	54.55	1.25	79.20%	-1.75	Kerry	2	0.851	2.35
IA	50.65	49.49	-1.16	22.50%	-1.84	Bush	0	2.156	0
AR	46.60	45.45	-1.15	22.70%	-1.85	Bush	3	1.957	1.53
OK	35.00	34.00	-1.00	25.70%	-2.00	Bush	6	2.505	2.4
KY	41.00	40.00	-1.00	25.70%	-2.00	Bush	2	3.071	0.65
MI	52.50	51.52	-0.98	26.00%	-2.02	Bush	71	7.177	9.89
NV	49.35	48.48	-0.87	28.60%	-2.13	Bush	4	1.433	2.79
OR	51.20	52.00	0.80	69.90%	-2.20	Kerry	0	2.495	0
ME	54.75	54.08	-0.67	33.10%	-2.33	Bush	1	0.983	1.02
MD	57.00	56.57	-0.43	38.80%	-2.57	Bush	9	3.719	2.42
VA	45.20	45.45	0.25	56.60%	-2.75	Kerry	34	5.216	6.52
DC	91.00	90.91	-0.09	47.60%	-2.91	Bush	20	0.416	48.13
MT	39.75	39.80	0.05	51.20%	-2.95	Kerry	2	0.679	2.95

Avg	47.89	22.64	-0.75	-0.25	-0.75	Total	1,919	189	10.15

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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #17
42. A quick note on correlations
A correlation result of -1.0 means a perfect "inverse correlation." When one variable goes up the other goes down. The perfect score -1.0 means that every record in the dataset is going down the same proportion as its paired variable is going up.

Tou can play with this in an little interactive Excel spreadsheet.

This is a perfect -1.0

2 -4
6 -12
5 -10
7 -14
9 -18


In a two candidate race, their percentage of the votes is very near -1.0.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 08:45 PM
Response to Original message
27. Kick for TIA's Fountain of Truth.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #27
30. kick
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 04:00 AM
Response to Original message
33. Question for Bleever
First of all, you are dealing with a multivariate analysis here.

IMHO, you have shown an _association_ between reported machine problems, state population, and the Red Shift. I don't think it proves cause and effect. I.e., if there's a correlation between machine problems and state population, and a correlation between Red Shift and state population, then there will be a correlation between machine problems and the Red Shift. This does not mean that the machine problems _caused_ the Red Shift anymore than it means they affected the state populations. Populations on the other hand, could have affected the exit polls (and therefore the Red Shift) if the samples were too small, or not diverse enough in the highly populated states. Mitofsky should have been smart enough not to let this happen, but maybe he wasn't. Again, so much of the theory depends on these exit polls and I still say THEY could have been hacked.

So let me ask you:

What kinds of machine problems have you included in your total of 1919 and do these problems themselves (not just the exit poll shifts) actually favor Bush?

The numbers TIA posted a while back were almost all touch screens of which there were less than 100 reported. Almost all of these did show votes defaulting to Bush instead of the voters' choice which was Kerry.

I wonder if this is true across the full range of reported problems on various voting platforms, independent of the exit polls.

It's well known that punch card spoilage is higher in minority precincts, which tend to vote Democratic. This is unfair, but it's nothing new.

One more point: All Shrub needed to do to win the election was to win FL, PA and OH. Same for Kerry. Even two out of these three would have been enough. So why conduct a much more elaborate fraud with a much greater chance of getting caught, just to pad the popular vote, if you can win just by stealing FL and OH?
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. Bill Bored, Bush Inc. set up the election for fraud!
Bush "Pioneer" run electronic voting machine companies worked in concert with Tom DeLay to prevent a paper trail, open source code and any kind of accountability. I therefore presume they had plenty of time to think of the political implications of losing the popular vote but "winning" the Electoral Vote as happened in '00, decided that would be unacceptable politically, and furthermore wanted to claim a "mandate." And why shouldn't they have everything they wanted? It was like stealing candy from a baby. There was little or no risk.

They knew they had trained the Democrats to be "election fraud" averse ('00: "sour grapes," "get over it"), and that the odd truth seeker here and there might well crunch the numbers and figure it out, but who would listen to them? They had also trained the corporate media not to attack Bush Inc., or they’d get “Dan Rathered.” The risk factor all comes down to political calculation--especially after '00 (who would have ever thought this country would accept the Supreme Court appointing the president while inventing its own election law and stopping the counting of the votes?).

I must say, you really have to wonder about the Democratic leadership's seeming total lack of curiosity about whether or not they have been "Bush (W) Hacked" again. You'd think they would've been all over this. In fact, you'd think they would've been all over Wally O'Dell & buddies owning the election system in the first place.

My kindest guess about the former--their seeming lack of curiosity now--is that they are embarrassed about the latter--their failure to achieve a transparent election system, or to at least to scream bloody murder when this unbelievably non-transparent system got set up. But in saying this, I do feel it's a bit like blaming the victim of abuse rather than the abuser. (Why didn't she object to her husband beating the crap out of her every week? It's really HER fault!).

It's too easy to blame the victims--the Democrats and the sleepy American electorate (who in fact woke up for once, and took action to throw the bums out, but then were lulled back to sleep, most of them, when it appeared that they had failed). Is it THEIR fault that a fascist cabal has figured out how to manipulate them, steal all their money and send their children to their bloody deaths to grab the last oil reserves on earth? Is it the Democrats' fault for being the compromising, fiefdom-protecting, Vichy collaborators that they are?

Fault all around, I guess. But the focus of blame and accountability really should be placed where it belongs: on the perps.

Also, it would seem to me to REDUCE the risk of detection to spread the vote-stealing around to many states. The EV of course was critically important (and they took no chances with it--massive election fraud of every description in OH and FLA), but the pop. majority was very high in importance as well, and, given the ease with which votes could be manufactured or stolen--why not have both? To get the pop. majority only in OH, PA & FLA would have been far riskier (even with cowed Democrats and media)--although there is evidence they went too far in FLA (100,000 to 300,000 phantom votes for Bush, or votes stolen from Kerry, in just three, largely Democratic counties in FLA, according to the Berkeley study).

My working hypothesis of the Election Fraud Plan is that they had to:

1. Tweak several "red" states that were threatening to turn "blue" at the time of the election, to keep Bush competitive in the Electoral Vote, wherever detection had been minimized (i.e., no paper trail);

2. Grab %'s here and there all over the map, to manufacture and pad a popular majority--not too big, just enough--even in big Kerry states (and big Kerry counties--as the Berkeley study showed in FLA);

3. Turn OH and FLA with heavy duty vote suppression and vote stealing, to secure the EV (using highly partisan pro-Bush election officials, including in OH the head of the Bush campaign as Sec’y of State!);

4. Make it all SEEM to come down to Ohio (or FLA) and the counting of a relatively few provisional ballots; and

5. Public perception of a Bush win (hiding Kerry's numbers in the Exit Polls by feeding the Diebolded electronic results into the Exit Poll data on everybody's TVs on Nov. 2--I'm not sure who exactly made this decision, but it was too important a component of a phony Bush "win" to ignore the probability that it was part of the plan).

If you were Karl Rove, and had received hundreds of thousands of dollars from Wally O'Dell and H. Ahmanson and Triad, and had their vote tabulation secret source code in your back pocket, and no paper trail in a third of the country, and unlimited funds for whatever you needed to do, and if you had many other powers, such as calling on Homeland Security for a terrorist "lockdown" on the vote counting wherever needed, and if you were a real "Machiavellian" snake in the grass, isn't this what you would have done?

A whole lot of evidence supports this hypothesis, with more evidence emerging every day (including, most recently, evidence in Ohio of tampering with the voting machines to remove the evidence, and obstruction and resistance on evidence requests and recounts).

Then there is one’s instincts, one’s gut feeling--an important part of any working hypothesis. Given this unconscionable amount of power (secret source code, no paper trail, and so much more), WOULD Bush Inc. use it? My answer is absolutely yes. It wouldn’t occur to them not to. They’d set it up this way. There was absolutely nothing, by way ethics, or conscience, or a vigilant press corps, or a clean-handed opposition, to stop them. Their only problem might be a Ukraine-type uprising, 1) easily taken care of in the name of anti-terrorist “security,” and 2) the TV networks made that kind of mess unnecessary, by hiding Kerry’s lead in the Exit Polls.

On another topic: Could the Exit Polls have been hacked? Yes, of course--any computerized information can be hacked. But why look there--when you have a growing mountain of evidence of all kinds, not just Exit Polls, of Bush Inc. election fraud, including anomalous numbers with impossible odds in several different kinds of data, over a range of states (up to 20 or so), voluminous evidence of outright criminal vote suppression in violation of the Voting Rights Act, and "means, motive and opportunity" for a major crime.

If there were no other evidence or reason to suspect Bush Inc. (for instance, a history of baldfaced lying, and a previous stolen election), and if there were no other indicators of a Kerry win (huge voter reg and GOTV campaign, featuring Michael Moore and Bruce Springsteen and thousands of highly motivated volunteers; huge unvetted crowds cheering Kerry on; all sorts of anecdotal information showing a shift to Kerry--peoples' rightwing uncles turning against Bush, etc.; pre-election polls showing Kerry climbing to a tie just before the election, momentum all on his side; Bush's approval ratings in the toilet) then you might have a puzzle, and a suspicion that something is wrong with the Exit Polls.

But the Exit Polls occurred in the CONTEXT of all of the above. They were one more confirmation that things had turned against Bush. They were not standing alone in opposition to all other information. In fact, the ONLY information against a Kerry win are the Bush Inc.-controlled "official" results.

As it is, you don't have much reason to look at Exit Poll hacking as the source of the discrepancy. Although every factor should be considered to some extent, suggesting that the Exit Polls were hacked (with no evidence at all in that direction) reminds me of Bush Inc.'s ever-changing story on Iraq WMDs--first they were definitely, without question, in Iraq, with a "mushroom" cloud imminent over the US of A; then they would surely be found, once we invaded; then, phony reports, big headlines, traces of this and that found (retracted days later in the back pages); then, well, they most certainly, definitely had "weapons of mass destruction program capability"; then, Zarqawi and Al Q were the real enemy and the reason we invaded (followed by convenient head whackings).

Any excuse. Any plausible-sounding BS, to cover up the real intentions of theft and domination.

Also, looking at Mifosky's company itself--non-partisan polling with years of experience--and looking at who hired them (ABC, CBS, AP, CNN, Fox News et al)--and looking at the use of such non-partisan exit polls worldwide to verify elections and detect fraud, an insider job to favor Kerry doesn't make sense. The news organizations (with the exception of CBS) strongly favored Bush in every way. And Mifosky's reputation was on the line (no motive for having his Exit Polls out of whack--just the opposite).

If there was any fault in the Exit Poll consortium, it was in polluting the Exit Poll data with the Diebolded "official" tally, without disclosing that to the people watching their TV screens on Nov. 2. THAT was foul play! --a journalistic crime for which they should never be forgiven.

And Mifosky is certainly at fault for not releasing all the Exit Poll data now. Everything should be open and aboveboard and transparent, and recountable and auditable--and nothing is! Least of all our goddamned votes!

Finally, if the Democrats (or any pro-Kerry operatives) had gotten a hacking capability together, why didn't they hack the Election instead of the Exit Polls? And IF they had hacked the Exit Polls in Kerry's favor, why aren't they taking advantage of it now--and screaming about a stolen election? They're doing just the opposite--heads in the sand (most of them). Was their intention to do a fundraiser for the Green Party?

So, you see how this suggestion (that the Exit Polls were hacked) strikes me. It's too much like Cheney and Rumsfeld and Rice and Bush, and their echo chamber (our soiled news media), and the kinds of things they throw out--somewhat plausible sounding things with no evidence whatsoever to back them up--to sow confusion and cover their nefarious deeds. Classic disinformation right out of the corporate P.R. consultants' office.

The overwhelming evidence is that they hacked, and stole and manufactured votes, and stopped Democrats from voting, going east to west on election day, with the west turning bright "blue" (CA, WA, ORE, in a big way, and with NMex, Nev and CO and a few others edging to Kerry). And they cashed in every chip they had to do it--whether it was lever counters in NY, or Triad punch card counters and a "shortage" of voting machines in black precincts in Ohio, or Jeb Bush nixing a paper trail and "disappearing" 60,000 absentee ballots in FLA.

Maybe this Election Fraud Plan saved us a nuclear incident in California, or Cheney's plane missing over the Pacific coming back from Hawaii (why did he go to Hawaii? why? it's driving me nuts). That is, maybe it saved us from Plan B.

Plan A: Build up enough of a cushion on the east coast to "win," then anything that comes of efforts in the west (Sproul; hacking a few counties like San Bernardino and Riverside, whatever) is all gravy towards a "mandate."

Plan B: ????

Wayne Madsen had one Plan B scenario that I saw before the election (on election day: a big phony "terrorist alert" tying up the L.A. freeways--if the hackers failed in the east); and now he seems to have hold of the tail of another (Saudi money funneled to CIA/FBI operatives using anti-terrorist credentials to hack OH, FLA, TX and CA).

But the promised magic of the proprietary programming worked as advertised--as did all their other work to suppress the Democratic vote. No need to nuke California (or fake it).

Really, this is where I'm at about all this. I think it's absolutely absurd to suggest that the Democrats hacked the Exit Polls, when it's so bloody obvious what these criminals have been up to for the last four years: setting this up.

It also reminds me of how the timber corporation "scientists" cast doubt upon the studies of independent scientists' , say, with regard to the extirpation of the coho salmon in redwood forests, after 60 years of rapacious logging and heavy pesticide use. It could be “overfishing”; or, it could be "ocean currents," or it could be “previous bad logging practices”, or, the evidence of former abundance is anecdotal. Anything plausible to point the finger the other way--even though it's blatantly obvious that removing and poisoning the forest destroys the life within the forest, starting with the most sensitive species (common sense--backed by voluminous independent expert studies).

And guess what? If you can make a case for "overfishing," or "ocean currents," or bad previous practices, and you've got species near extinction because of it, what are you doing LOGGING IT SOME MORE, and muddying the streams SOME MORE, and pouring MORE pesticides into the system?

Oh, you're NOW going to do it SUSTAINABLY! Ah!

I read this kind of crap all the time. The purpose of it is to squeeze every last dime out of the forest, no matter what, and when the land is utterly depleted, sell it for real estate development. So the so-called "scientists" for the corporation (and their brothers in government) try to cast whatever doubt they can on the blatant facts with plausible sounding blarney, to snow whatever judges the public might appeal to (who aren't really fooled--they're just going along, too--and well paid for it), to accomplish the real purpose of all this: vast profits from multiple turnovers of the land, until it’s no longer “productive,” no matter the cost to the local environment or the planet.

When I read maybe the Exit Polls were hacked, I hear a whore "scientist" defending pesticides and clear-cutting, because you really can't prove beyond a reasonable doubt that pesticides and clear-cutting killed THIS fish or THAT bird, or an entire species. You can't prove that logging has killed them off just because they're NOT THERE! (...and now, course, we're hearing, "They were never there.") (As Kurt Vonnegut said, "So it goes.")

But it probably really comes down to, whom do you trust (after a whole lot of experience of this sort of lying)?

Do you trust the non-partisan Exit Polls and all the years that have gone into improving them, and the high respect in which they are held worldwide, and all the information from '04 that corroborates them--or Bush "Pioneer" controlled vote tabulation?

"But you can't prove it hurt THAT FISH!"
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. BEST.MOST.COGENT.ARGUMENT.EVER.
Spread it all around. Please.

Please post this as its own thread.

I will kick it forever.
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Quakerfriend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #35
37. Rock on , Peace Patriot!
Thank you for that rant! Especially the last couple of paragraphs!
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #35
39. Peace Patriot, here's the problem:
There are too many threads here and not enough time! That said, DU is a great place to discuss all this stuff -- maybe the best place!

You misunderstand my exit poll hacking allegation. I think if anyone did it, it was Bushco. They would do it to get out their vote because their otherwise lazy supporters would be more likely to get off their butts and go to the polls to prevent a Kerry victory if predicted in the unadjusted polls than if they thought Shrub was a shoe-in. ONLY Dick Morris has suggested that the Dems hacked the polls -- not I. And I say that THIS is the Republican cover story for THEM having hacked the polls. Surely this fits with your and my perception of them as well, doesn't it?

Furthermore, I have said in another thread that a hacked exit poll and a fraudulent election are NOT mutually exclusive.

Now that we've cleared that up, all I'm trying to say about these exit polls is that when Mitofsky himself has admitted that his polls are NOT designed to detect fraud the way the ones in, e.g., Ukraine are, we should not place so much emphasis on this one particular anomaly. I just don't believe it's as overwhelming as some people are suggesting at this point. And it won't be for me until Mitofsky comes out with his raw data, which frankly should have been done YESTERDAY, or better yet, a month ago! We can't have it both ways though, by saying on the one hand, that we trust Mitofsky and he's proven fraud, while on the other hand, he himself says that his early polls were wrong.

As far as your other points, I agree wholeheartedly and the next step has to be, what the f*** do we do about it?

I'd suggest the following, in addition to the immediate actions in Ohio and continued investigations elsewhere:

We need to find a way to SUE the states who have purchased these machines without paper trails, or have not passed recount laws to use the trails to verify the machine tallies, to PROVE that our votes are in fact being counted correctly beyond a reasonable doubt. Such lawsuits would simply allege that, under the current system there is evidence that the votes are NOT being accurately counted (or that there is no way to know that they are) and this would put the onus on the states to prove the opposite.

I started another thread on this subject which has not been kicked enough to continue the discussion. Also, someone on that thread asked that it not be discussed too widely because there is a planned legal action underway in one state already. Now I am not a lawyer, but there must be a way under the various state election laws to sue for the ability to know that the vote counting in each state, and in DC, is being done correctly, given the LACK of evidence to that effect presently.

In the process of discovery in these cases, all the machine code, etc. will have to be revealed, or some other way must be found to guarantee an accurate count of the votes as cast.

Some have said there is no Constitutional right to vote. I say this is wrong except for the case of Pres and VP (electoral college). Both houses of Congress are elected by the popular vote in each state and this implies a right of the people to vote, albeit one that is implemented by the individual states themselves.

This is why action at the state level is urgently needed in all 50 of them, and in DC too, to ensure that our votes are being counted as cast.

We can argue about exit polls until the cows come home, but it won't help us in 2006 or beyond.

So can we start a movement like the Bushies have, or are we going to just sit around here in the reality-based community wringing our hands over exit polls?
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 07:53 PM
Response to Reply #35
44. I really enjoyed this post, Peace Patriot.
A comprehensive, incisive, and darn persuasive analysis.

Thanks for writing it.

:thumbsup:
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #33
43. I wasn't presuming to show causality, just that
there is a suspicious tendency for there to be more machine errors to go along with a greater red shift in the biggest states.

You can read the machine problem reports, one by one, at verifiedvoting.org. Their data set now has a couple hundred more machine problem reports.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #43
48. Fair enough
Edited on Sun Dec-19-04 09:05 PM by Bill Bored
And in case anyone hasn't checked yet, you will also find a high correlation between the Red Shifts and states with Republican governors.

If you want to allege fraud of this magnitude, it makes sense to look at who's running things in the states that shifted the most Redward. 22 out of our 50 governors (44%) are Dems, but the 20 states with the largest Red Shift have 80% Republican governors. This one even explains NY shifting Red!

You can find all kinds of associations but what do they really prove?

I assume you've all read this:
"Zogby Vs. Mitofsky" (Keith Olbermann)
<http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6533008/#041124a>

I'm still waiting for comments on my proposed legal action:

Force the states to prove that our votes are counted correctly. Without the source code and expert analysis of the machines, they can not. So we either get the code and have the machines dissected by impartial experts, and if they can't prove anything, we get the paper trail and the recounts laws to use it.

There could even be a case for fraud against the 2 major parties because they take campaign contributions without a means to verify if that money can even help them win an election. What do you think their largest donors (other than Diebold of course) would have to say about that, not to mention we grassroots peons?

There may be many possibilities for legal action. I'd rather spend time thinking about that than these exit polls.

Peace.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
45. The Exit Poll Data in a Convenient Excel File with Analysis and Graphs
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dalloway Donating Member (744 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 08:19 PM
Response to Original message
46. needs another kick n/t
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Vodid Donating Member (99 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 08:32 PM
Response to Original message
47. Age of Punchcard machines
The odds of dice returning a wanted number can be greatly improved by simply rounding the corners of the opposite face. It's not easily detectable if you don't know what to look for.

I think about that when I consider punchcard machines...will a machine that has processed hundreds of thousands of ballots, and therefore has considerable wear on the punch mechanism, be as effective as a new machine in effectively punching the ballot? I doubt it. I would imagine that an older machine would be much more likely to produce a "hanging chad".

It's just a consideration about the fallibility of the equipment that I haven't seen voiced as of yet.

I wonder if the democratic neighborhoods using punchcards are using older equipment compared to republican neighborhoods?

Jeez, with all these discrepancies, the obvious issue all Americans should be able to agree on is the need for a nationwide standard for voting equipment/procedure. It's gotta be tightened up or the loser will always have doubts about the process.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 09:01 PM
Response to Reply #47
49. This is well known to be the case esp. in minority precincts n/t
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-20-04 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #47
51. Hi Vodid!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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