I raise my goblet and toast TruthIsAll... a relentless warrior. nt

[henslee]

[GetTheRightVote]

1. I raise mine up to meet yours.

:bounce:

[TruthIsAll]

23. Thank you, thank you, all. This is truly a labor of hate.

I hate what has become of this nation. So I will continue to do what I do best: Crunch the numbers and knock down those strawmen that our adversaries keep sending over here. They don't serve the truth; they only serve their masters in the media and elsewhere.

Anyone who says that this election was not fixed (as 2000 and 2002 were) is either stone-cold drunk with kool-aid or totally brain-dead or totally corrupt.

I have seen and heard the lies, from Blitzer to Coulter to Hannity to O'Reilly to Brokaw to Jennings and of course, BUSHCO, EVERY DAY FOR FOUR SOLID YEARS. It is an unending Orwellian nightmare.

No one pays me for this. I tell the truth for free. And the mediawhores lie to millions for millions.

But, even so, I have been fair to Bush. Let me tell you how:

If you recall, I originally calculated the probability/odds of 16 states Red-shifting beyond the MOE to Bush as:

Prob = 1 - BINOMDIST(16,51,.05, TRUE)
or ONE in 4.5 BILLION.

But this turned out to be in error.

I made an adjustment to the input and recalculated the odds:
Prob = 1 - BINOMDIST(16,51,.025, TRUE)
or ONE in 200 TRILLION.

I posted this result and asked for mathematicians to check the calculation, since it seemed much too HIGH. Sure enough, several DUers responded.

I did not hesitate to correct the calculation EVEN THOUGH THE ODDS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN BUSH'S FAVOR:

Prob = 1 - BINOMDIST(15 ,51,.025, TRUE)
or ONE in 13.5 TRILLION.

So, even though it helped Bush, I would not let the 200 TRILLION to ONE odds stand. It would have been mathematically and ethically dishonest. The naysayers would have called me names, like douche-bag and jerk (in fact, one did)

So we have arrived at the final, correct odds:
It's ONLY 13.5 TRILLION to ONE.

Of course, the ditto-heads will say Bush could beat those odds, BUT had I left the odds stand at 200 TRILLION to ONE, perhaps even they would have had to agree: Yes, Bush is lucky, but not THAT lucky.

As I believe in fair play AND the truth and always strive for the CORRECT result to the best of my ability, I fixed the error.

The odds are only ********** ONE in 13.5 TRILLION **********

Ok, that's no big deal.
Bush can surely beat THOSE odds.

But I don't care.

[Pooka Fey]

24. TIA, you are a bright light shining in the darkness of our 21st century,

Christian Fascist Militaristic Chimp-Ruled Nation. A Happy Festivus to you and a jig danced 'round a bare aluminum pole stuck in the ground! :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[Niche]

2. Truth is All!

:loveya: :hug: :loveya: :hug: :toast: :toast: :toast:

[Mister Ed]

3. Aye! Long may he crunch! n/t

[Vidar]

4. Vive TRUTHIS ALL.

[Quakerfriend]

5. Kick this high!

;-)

[trumad]

6. Most definitely!

[Z_I_Peevey]

7. Absolutely

I always read TIA's threads. Damned fine work.

[goclark]

20. The odds are that TIA is a winner!!!

[CantGetFooledAgain]

8. It was because of an especially fine TIA post...

...that I was led to DU in the first place. I believe that the post was quoted on Truthout.org.

[DELUSIONAL]

9. I'll join in this toast!!!!

Thank you TIA -- for all your efforts to keep us at DU informed.

[seabeyond]

10. clink......with yawl n/t

[Pithy Cherub]

11. TIA love the beauty of your analysis and your complete comfort

you have with numbers. You totally rock! :yourock: :toast:

[DeepModem Mom]

12. TIA rocks!!!!!

[Ellipsis]

13. And a frothy Pint of "Spotted Cow"

http://www.newglarusbrewing.com/beers/spottedcow.html

ARG!

[Marnieworld]

14. Hear Freakin' Hear!

TIA I can't thank you enough for your passionate and wise, and brilliant posts lo these many weeks. You really helped keep my spirits up. Thank you!

[enough]

15. And another!

To your health, TIA...

[BeHereNow]

16. Clink! nt

bhn

[Left Brain]

17. To TIA!

:toast:

[Emit]

18. Hear ! Hear !

[acmavm]

19. A little late in the day, but I agree. Cheers.

.

[Pooka Fey]

21. Gun cuireadh do chupa thairis le slainte agus sonas!

May your cup overflow with health and happiness! (Scots Gaelic) :toast:

[dogindia]

22. and a fine rich red complex wine I raise to TIA

thank you TiA....we love you. Bright cheers.

[Gelliebeans]

25. Cheers TIA

:toast: :toast: :toast: (always enjoy reading your posts)

[Andromeda]

26. Here, here!

:toast: What can I say -- TIA, you're brilliant.

You've furnished DU with so much information I can't even find the right words to express my gratitude.

Love you, TIA! :)

[crickets]

27. Thank you, TIA!

Your hard work is so appreciated.

[sportndandy]

28. I respect the work some BUT

I got flamed by Truth for having a speculation that Truth didn't agree with. I think that was a little nuts. I can see it comes from passion, but passion can be confused with crazy, and sometimes I think you may walk the line.

Hey Truth: the only the thing liberals agree on is that they hate bush. After that we have little in common except a desire to understand the truth. So next time you see an opinion you don't like, don't use it as an opportunity to keep everyone on the same page, because there is no way way we will ever be on the same page.

Merry Christmas.

[henslee]

31. We got a big tent. Diversity is our strength. It's all about consensus. nt

[Vinnie From Indy]

29. It's Gotta Be 5 o'Clock Somewhere

Salute! (Raising a glass)

THANK YOU!

[farmbo]

30. (Thump chest)... Bravissimo!!!

eom

[TNMOM]

32. Hear! Hear!

TIA -- you rock! I've kept up with your analyses since the summer. You've done so much work. Thank you!!