SMOKING GUN? 2000 EXIT POLLS ACCURATE TO WITHIN 0.17%. STRAWMAN DOWN!

[TruthIsAll]

I calculated the deviations based on the two-party vote.
 Gore + Bush = 100%. 

For Gore the average vote tally deviation from the exit polls
was just -0.17%. Pretty damn accurate.

GORE'S UNWEIGHTED 51-STATE AVERAGE: 
EXIT POLLS: 47.50%
ACTUAL VOTE: 47.33%

ASSUMING THESE POLL NUMBERS WERE NOT ADJUSTED LIKE THEY WERE
IN THIS ELECTION TO MATCH THE ACTUAL "VOTES", THIS
PUTS THE LIE TO ALL THOSE SO-CALLED EXPERTS WHO CLAIM THAT
EXIT POLLS ARE NOT ACCURATE.

SO MUCH FOR THAT MYTH. 

THIRTY-SEVEN STATES FELL WITHIN 1%.
ONLY SIX EXCEEDED 3%, SPLIT EVENLY: 3 FOR GORE AND 3 FOR BUSH

GORE WON THE POPULAR VOTE BY OVER 540,000 VOTES.
THE EXIT POLLS, EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA, WERE APPARENTLY RIGHT ON
THE MONEY.

WHAT HAPPENED THIS TIME?

2000 Exit Poll Data from MSNBC.com									
http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polllaunch.asp											
											
		
Avg Gore deviation:	-0.17%							
Favored Bush:		22								
Favored Gore:		29								
											
States	Dev.	Within									
37		1%									
5		2%									
3		3%									
6		over 3%									
											
											
					              2-party				
		Exit Poll		Exit%	Exit%	Gore	Gore		Exceed	
		All	Gore	Bush	Gore	Bush	Exit	Vote	Diff	3%MoE	Favor
											
											
AL	Men	48%	37%	63%	43.8%	56.2%	43.8%	42.9%	-0.90%		Bush
	Women	52%	50%	50%							
											
AK	Men	54%	35%	65%	41.9%	58.1%	41.9%	32.2%	-9.72%	Yes	Bush
	Women	46%	50%	50%							
											
AZ	Men	49%	37%	63%	43.1%	56.9%	43.1%	46.9%	3.76%	Yes	Gore
	Women	51%	49%	51%							
											
AR	Men	47%	46%	54%	52.4%	47.6%	52.4%	47.4%	-4.94%	Yes	Bush
	Women	53%	58%	42%							
											
CA	Men	42%	53%	47%	57.6%	41.2%	58.3%	55.8%	-2.53%		Bush
	Women	58%	61%	37%							
											
CO	Men	49%	41%	60%	46.6%	53.9%	46.4%	45.2%	-1.22%		Bush
	Women	51%	52%	48%							
											
CT	Men	47%	56%	44%	65.0%	35.0%	65.0%	59.6%	-5.44%	Yes	Bush
	Women	53%	73%	27%							
											
DE	Men	51%	44%	56%	49.4%	50.6%	49.4%	56.7%	7.31%	Yes	Gore
	Women	49%	55%	45%							
											
GA	Men	52%	38%	62%	46.6%	53.4%	46.6%	43.9%	-2.76%		Bush
	Women	48%	56%	44%							
											
IA	Men	45%	46%	54%	53.2%	46.9%	53.2%	50.5%	-2.63%		Bush
	Women	55%	59%	41%							
											
KS	Men	49%	24%	76%	33.2%	66.8%	33.2%	38.9%	5.77%	Yes	Gore
	Women	51%	42%	58%							
											
FL	Male	46%	42%	54%	47.9%	49.1%	49.4%	50.0%	0.62%		Gore
	Female	54%	53%	45%							
											
HI	Male	49%	49%	42%	55.6%	36.9%	60.1%	60.2%	0.09%		Gore
	Female	51%	62%	32%							
											
ID	Male	51%	21%	76%	28.4%	69.1%	29.1%	29.5%	0.39%		Gore
	Female	49%	36%	62%							
											
IL	Male	47%	51%	46%	54.2%	42.8%	55.9%	56.1%	0.27%		Gore
	Female	53%	57%	40%							
											
IN	Male	47%	35%	64%	40.8%	57.6%	41.5%	41.8%	0.37%		Gore
	Female	53%	46%	52%							
											
IA	Male	50%	44%	52%	49.0%	48.0%	50.5%	50.5%	0.00%		Gore
	Female	50%	54%	44%							
											
KY	Male	49%	37%	61%	41.1%	56.4%	42.1%	41.8%	-0.30%		Bush
	Female	51%	45%	52%							
											
LA	Male	45%	39%	56%	44.5%	52.7%	45.8%	45.9%	0.14%		Gore
	Female	55%	49%	50%							
											
ME	Male	48%	42%	50%	48.8%	44.3%	52.4%	52.7%	0.28%		Gore
	Female	52%	55%	39%							
											
MD	Male	46%	47%	50%	56.7%	39.7%	58.8%	58.3%	-0.47%		Bush
	Female	54%	65%	31%							
											
MA	Male	47%	52%	37%	60.0%	32.2%	65.0%	64.5%	-0.52%		Bush
	Female	53%	67%	28%							
											
MI	Male	49%	46%	51%	51.1%	46.4%	52.4%	52.6%	0.17%		Gore
	Female	51%	56%	42%							
											
MN	Male	46%	43%	50%	47.9%	45.1%	51.5%	51.1%	-0.40%		Bush
	Female	54%	52%	41%							
											
MS	Male	43%	32%	67%	41.1%	57.9%	41.5%	41.4%	-0.12%		Bush
	Female	57%	48%	51%							
											
MO	Male	47%	43%	54%	47.2%	50.3%	48.4%	48.5%	0.02%		Gore
	Female	53%	51%	47%							
											
MT	Male	46%	28%	64%	32.9%	58.6%	35.9%	36.3%	0.34%		Gore
	Female	54%	37%	54%							
											
NE	Male	47%	30%	64%	32.7%	62.4%	34.3%	34.7%	0.39%		Gore
	Female	53%	35%	61%							
											
NV	Male	51%	41%	53%	45.4%	49.6%	47.8%	47.9%	0.11%		Gore
	Female	49%	50%	46%							
											
NH	Male	51%	40%	53%	46.4%	48.6%	48.8%	49.5%	0.64%		Gore
	Female	49%	53%	44%							
											
NJ	Male	47%	49%	47%	55.9%	40.6%	57.9%	58.3%	0.43%		Gore
	Female	53%	62%	35%							
											
NM	Male	48%	44%	51%	49.2%	46.3%	51.5%	50.0%	-1.51%		Bush
	Female	52%	54%	42%							
											
NY	Male	46%	53%	41%	59.5%	35.6%	62.6%	63.2%	0.60%		Gore
	Female	54%	65%	31%							
											
NC	Male	47%	38%	60%	42.8%	55.8%	43.4%	43.4%	0.03%		Gore
	Female	53%	47%	52%							
											
ND	Male	51%	31%	59%	32.5%	61.0%	34.8%	35.1%	0.35%		Gore
	Female	49%	34%	63%							
											
OH	Male	46%	39%	57%	46.6%	50.5%	48.0%	47.9%	-0.04%		Bush
	Female	54%	53%	45%							
											
OK	Male	45%	36%	62%	38.2%	59.8%	39.0%	38.8%	-0.20%		Bush
	Female	55%	40%	58%							
											
OR	Male	48%	40%	54%	46.8%	47.8%	49.5%	50.0%	0.53%		Gore
	Female	52%	53%	42%							
											
PA	Male	48%	43%	54%	50.8%	46.7%	52.1%	52.6%	0.49%		Gore
	Female	52%	58%	40%							
											
RI	Male	50%	54%	37%	60.5%	32.5%	65.1%	65.6%	0.54%		Gore
	Female	50%	67%	28%							
											
SC	Male	45%	35%	60%	40.5%	56.2%	41.9%	41.8%	-0.07%		Bush
	Female	55%	45%	53%							
											
SD	Male	51%	30%	67%	36.4%	61.1%	37.3%	38.8%	1.47%		Gore
	Female	49%	43%	55%							
											
TN	Male	47%	42%	56%	46.2%	51.2%	47.4%	48.0%	0.52%		Gore
	Female	53%	50%	47%							
											
TX	Male	49%	30%	65%	37.7%	58.9%	39.0%	39.2%	0.17%		Gore
	Female	51%	45%	53%							
											
UT	Male	48%	18%	73%	26.3%	66.8%	28.3%	28.0%	-0.32%		Bush
	Female	52%	34%	61%							
											
VT	Male	47%	45%	46%	50.8%	40.7%	55.5%	55.4%	-0.10%		Bush
	Female	53%	56%	36%							
											
VA	Male	46%	37%	58%	44.6%	52.1%	46.1%	45.8%	-0.29%		Bush
	Female	54%	51%	47%							
											
WA	Male	49%	43%	48%	49.1%	43.4%	53.1%	52.6%	-0.45%		Bush
	Female	51%	55%	39%							
											
WV	Male	46%	42%	57%	46.3%	51.6%	47.3%	46.9%	-0.37%		Bush
	Female	54%	50%	47%							
											
WI	Male	48%	40%	54%	47.8%	48.3%	49.8%	50.0%	0.25%		Gore
	Female	52%	55%	43%							
											
WY	Male	47%	21%	76%	27.9%	69.1%	28.8%	29.2%	0.41%		Gore
	Female	53%	34%	63%							
											
												
	                    Avg	45.9%	50.8%	47.5%	47.3%	-0.17% 6

[proudbluestater]

1. Hmmm, have these been "adjusted" by the networks also?

[The Doctor.]

2. Creepier and creepier. n/t

[TruthIsAll]

3. GRAPH: GORE VS. KERRY EXIT POLL DEVIATIONS

[TruthIsAll]

4. Minor Corrections: Avg Gore Dev was -0.12%; 39 of 50 states within 1%.

2000 Exit Poll Data - 50 states		

Avg. Gore Exit poll:	47.39%
Avg. Gore Vote tally:	47.27%

Avg. Gore Deviation: -0.12%

Deviations favored Bush: 21
Deviations favored Gore: 29

States	Dev.	Within
39		1%
3		2%
2		3%
6		over 3%


					           2-party	2-party			
		Exit Poll		Exit%	Exit%	Gore	Gore		Exceed	
		All	Gore	Bush	Gore	Bush	Exit	Vote	Diff	3%MoE	Favor

											
AL	Men	48%	37%	63%	43.8%	56.2%	43.8%	42.9%	-0.90%		Bush
	Women	52%	50%	50%							
											
AK	Men	54%	35%	65%	41.9%	58.1%	41.9%	32.2%	-9.72%	Yes	Bush
	Women	46%	50%	50%							
											
AZ	Men	49%	37%	63%	43.1%	56.9%	43.1%	46.9%	3.76%	Yes	Gore
	Women	51%	49%	51%							
											
AR	Men	47%	46%	54%	52.4%	47.6%	52.4%	47.4%	-4.94%	Yes	Bush
	Women	53%	58%	42%							
											
CA	Men	42%	53%	47%	57.6%	41.2%	58.3%	55.8%	-2.53%		Bush
	Women	58%	61%	37%							
											
CO	Men	49%	41%	60%	46.6%	53.9%	46.4%	45.2%	-1.22%		Bush
	Women	51%	52%	48%							
											
CT	Men	47%	56%	44%	65.0%	35.0%	65.0%	59.6%	-5.44%	Yes	Bush
	Women	53%	73%	27%							
											
DE	Men	51%	44%	56%	49.4%	50.6%	49.4%	56.7%	7.31%	Yes	Gore
	Women	49%	55%	45%							
											
GA	Men	52%	38%	62%	46.6%	53.4%	46.6%	43.9%	-2.76%		Bush
	Women	48%	56%	44%							
											
KS	Men	49%	24%	76%	33.2%	66.8%	33.2%	38.9%	5.77%	Yes	Gore
	Women	51%	42%	58%							
											
FL	Male	46%	42%	54%	47.9%	49.1%	49.4%	50.0%	0.62%		Gore
	Female	54%	53%	45%							
											
HI	Male	49%	49%	42%	55.6%	36.9%	60.1%	60.2%	0.09%		Gore
	Female	51%	62%	32%							
											
ID	Male	51%	21%	76%	28.4%	69.1%	29.1%	29.5%	0.39%		Gore
	Female	49%	36%	62%							
											
IL	Male	47%	51%	46%	54.2%	42.8%	55.9%	56.1%	0.27%		Gore
	Female	53%	57%	40%							
											
IN	Male	47%	35%	64%	40.8%	57.6%	41.5%	41.8%	0.37%		Gore
	Female	53%	46%	52%							
											
IA	Male	50%	44%	52%	49.0%	48.0%	50.5%	50.5%	0.00%		Gore
	Female	50%	54%	44%							
											
KY	Male	49%	37%	61%	41.1%	56.4%	42.1%	41.8%	-0.30%		Bush
	Female	51%	45%	52%							
											
LA	Male	45%	39%	56%	44.5%	52.7%	45.8%	45.9%	0.14%		Gore
	Female	55%	49%	50%							
											
ME	Male	48%	42%	50%	48.8%	44.3%	52.4%	52.7%	0.28%		Gore
	Female	52%	55%	39%							
											
MD	Male	46%	47%	50%	56.7%	39.7%	58.8%	58.3%	-0.47%		Bush
	Female	54%	65%	31%							
											
MA	Male	47%	52%	37%	60.0%	32.2%	65.0%	64.5%	-0.52%		Bush
	Female	53%	67%	28%							
											
MI	Male	49%	46%	51%	51.1%	46.4%	52.4%	52.6%	0.17%		Gore
	Female	51%	56%	42%							
											
MN	Male	46%	43%	50%	47.9%	45.1%	51.5%	51.1%	-0.40%		Bush
	Female	54%	52%	41%							
											
MS	Male	43%	32%	67%	41.1%	57.9%	41.5%	41.4%	-0.12%		Bush
	Female	57%	48%	51%							
											
MO	Male	47%	43%	54%	47.2%	50.3%	48.4%	48.5%	0.02%		Gore
	Female	53%	51%	47%							
											
MT	Male	46%	28%	64%	32.9%	58.6%	35.9%	36.3%	0.34%		Gore
	Female	54%	37%	54%							
											
NE	Male	47%	30%	64%	32.7%	62.4%	34.3%	34.7%	0.39%		Gore
	Female	53%	35%	61%							
											
NV	Male	51%	41%	53%	45.4%	49.6%	47.8%	47.9%	0.11%		Gore
	Female	49%	50%	46%							
											
NH	Male	51%	40%	53%	46.4%	48.6%	48.8%	49.5%	0.64%		Gore
	Female	49%	53%	44%							
											
NJ	Male	47%	49%	47%	55.9%	40.6%	57.9%	58.3%	0.43%		Gore
	Female	53%	62%	35%							
											
NM	Male	48%	44%	51%	49.2%	46.3%	51.5%	50.0%	-1.51%		Bush
	Female	52%	54%	42%							
											
NY	Male	46%	53%	41%	59.5%	35.6%	62.6%	63.2%	0.60%		Gore
	Female	54%	65%	31%							
											
NC	Male	47%	38%	60%	42.8%	55.8%	43.4%	43.4%	0.03%		Gore
	Female	53%	47%	52%							
											
ND	Male	51%	31%	59%	32.5%	61.0%	34.8%	35.1%	0.35%		Gore
	Female	49%	34%	63%							
											
OH	Male	46%	39%	57%	46.6%	50.5%	48.0%	47.9%	-0.04%		Bush
	Female	54%	53%	45%							
											
OK	Male	45%	36%	62%	38.2%	59.8%	39.0%	38.8%	-0.20%		Bush
	Female	55%	40%	58%							
											
OR	Male	48%	40%	54%	46.8%	47.8%	49.5%	50.0%	0.53%		Gore
	Female	52%	53%	42%							
											
PA	Male	48%	43%	54%	50.8%	46.7%	52.1%	52.6%	0.49%		Gore
	Female	52%	58%	40%							
											
RI	Male	50%	54%	37%	60.5%	32.5%	65.1%	65.6%	0.54%		Gore
	Female	50%	67%	28%							
											
SC	Male	45%	35%	60%	40.5%	56.2%	41.9%	41.8%	-0.07%		Bush
	Female	55%	45%	53%							
											
SD	Male	51%	30%	67%	36.4%	61.1%	37.3%	38.8%	1.47%		Gore
	Female	49%	43%	55%							
											
TN	Male	47%	42%	56%	46.2%	51.2%	47.4%	48.0%	0.52%		Gore
	Female	53%	50%	47%							
											
TX	Male	49%	30%	65%	37.7%	58.9%	39.0%	39.2%	0.17%		Gore
	Female	51%	45%	53%							
											
UT	Male	48%	18%	73%	26.3%	66.8%	28.3%	28.0%	-0.32%		Bush
	Female	52%	34%	61%							
											
VT	Male	47%	45%	46%	50.8%	40.7%	55.5%	55.4%	-0.10%		Bush
	Female	53%	56%	36%							
											
VA	Male	46%	37%	58%	44.6%	52.1%	46.1%	45.8%	-0.29%		Bush
	Female	54%	51%	47%							
											
WA	Male	49%	43%	48%	49.1%	43.4%	53.1%	52.6%	-0.45%		Bush
	Female	51%	55%	39%							
											
WV	Male	46%	42%	57%	46.3%	51.6%	47.3%	46.9%	-0.37%		Bush
	Female	54%	50%	47%							
											
WI	Male	48%	40%	54%	47.8%	48.3%	49.8%	50.0%	0.25%		Gore
	Female	52%	55%	43%							
											
WY	Male	47%	21%	76%	27.9%	69.1%	28.8%	29.2%	0.41%		Gore
	Female	53%	34%	63%							
											
				Avg	45.75%	50.87%	47.39%	47.27%	-0.12%	6	

[Clark2008]

7. Ummm..

Not to throw a monkey wrench in your analysis, but, um... Gore didn't win Tennessee and the exit poll here shows he should have and we're not a Diebold state.

[TruthIsAll]

8. The exit poll was inconclusive. Besides, that's not the point.

You are missing the overall which is that the exit poll deviations, considering all 50 states, were minimal in 2000 as compared to 2004.

I always believed that Bush stole TN (it was Gore's state) and perhaps OH and MO as well. Blacks were disenfranchised big time.

But the media only focused on FL.

[Niche]

5. But "exit polls aren't accurate." hmmm....

[TruthIsAll]

6. Let's see what the naysayers say about this puppy.

This data cuts through their specious "exit polls are unrealiable" excuses like a knife through butter.

I have never looked at these numbers or heard anyone in the media or on the NET refer to it. They focused on Florida in 2000. That was it.

The dittoheads and Bushbots are very creative in building strawmen and obfuscating and double-talking, but I can't imagine how they will try to spin this yarn.

Now it is more clear that this is what happened in 2000:
It was close, Bush lost the popular vote by 600,000 and stole Florida, at minimum.

This is what happened in 2004:
It wasn't close. Bush lost the popular vote by more than 3 million and needed BOTH Florida and Ohio. He stole them plus a few more (NM, NV CO, IA)). This time the operation was massive and nationwide (porimarily in the East).

They had to sweep it all up to turn a 3 million vote deficit into a 3 million "mandate". They only way to do that was to use all means necessary. That's why the DeLay-led Repukes succesfully fought against the paper trail.

They already had the natural punched card spoilage. They had Diebold, so they had the optiscans, the touchcreens and the central tabulators. And they probably chose to spoil more punched cards while they were at it.

[jkd]

9. Two party exit polls?

I don't know if you'll even read my questions. You've stated that you will ignore my posts.

How do you adjust exit polls to a two-party contest, when there are obviously more than two participants? Do you split the additional votes evenly among the two with the most votes so that the results equal 100%?

[TruthIsAll]

10. I knew you would show up sooner or later.

Your question belies your lack of understanding. Or are you just trying to make me waste energy?

You're really behind the curve if you fail to see the purpose of two party vote analysis, so let me educate you - that is, if you really want to know and are not just wasting my time.

It's all about comparing apples to apples. If you want to fog things up by considering Nader, be my guest, but I like to make things clear and simple, so I split the third party vote proportionately for Gore and Bush. I have done this all along in my analysis of Bush vs. Kerry (have you seen the Election Model?).

Say Bush is leading in the polls 50-48. His 2-party percentage is then the fraction 50/(50+48). Gore (or Kerry) has the remainder, 48/(50+48).

You can figure out the percentages, It's getting late. Anyway, when you do, you'll see that they add up to one hundred percent.

Next the 2-party exit poll apples are compared to the 2-party vote apples, which are, of course, calculated the SAME way.

By making this adjustment, we can track the relative movement of Gore (or Kerry) vs. Bush. After all, aren't these the guys we're interested in?

You sure are getting a free education here at DU.

[jkd]

11. It's still not clear to me

I'm not really interested in the movement of one candidate relative to the other between pre-election polls and the actual vote. I don't believe that has anything to do with the accuracy of the exit polls.

If the exit poll predicts that Gore will get 49% of the vote and he actually gets 45%, that's a -4% deviation. If Bush has exit poll projections of 49% and he gets 53%, that's a +4% deviation. Does your model now add 1% to both Bush and Gore and call it a -3% deviation for Gore? Or might it be a +5% deviation for Bush? The total deviation doesn't change, but in your model using only Gore movement it appears to greatly lessen the deviation.

I fail to comprehend why changing exit polls to a two party comparison has anything to do with the accuracy of exit polls.

[TruthIsAll]

12. Wow, you just don't get it, do you?

You say:
I'm not really interested in the movement of one candidate relative to the other between pre-election polls and the actual vote. I don't believe that has anything to do with the accuracy of the exit polls.

I say:
What the hell are you talking about?
The movement I am talking about is the deviation from the exit polls to the actuals. If Bush goes UP 4%, Kerry will go DOWN 4%. Two sides of the same coin. Right?

You say:
If the exit poll predicts that Gore will get 49% of the vote and he actually gets 45%, that's a -4% deviation. If Bush has exit poll projections of 49% and he gets 53%, that's a +4% deviation. Does your model now add 1% to both Bush and Gore and call it a -3% deviation for Gore? Or might it be a +5% deviation for Bush? The total deviation doesn't change, but in your model using only Gore movement it appears to greatly lessen the deviation.

I say:
I apply the 2- party adjustment equally to the exit polls and to the votes. Its apples and apples.
If the exit poll after adjustment is 51-49 Bush, and the vote, after adjustment is 53-47 Bush, Bush has picked up 2 and Kerry has lost 2.
Forget the measly 1% for the other candidates. In fact, using the 2-party adjustment is the cleanest way to determine the change from the polls.

You say:
I fail to comprehend why changing exit polls to a two party comparison has anything to do with the accuracy of exit polls.

I say:
I NEVER said that it had ANYTHING to do with the accuracy of exit polls. Of course it doesn't. Hopefully, this post will alleviate your very strange concerns about converting to 2-party numbers and enlighten.

I am getting very tired of your posts. I can draw one of two conclusions:

1) You are really quite lacking in your mathematical maturity, or
2) You are just trying to wear me out.

In any case, I promise this: If I deem your next question to be pure straw man creation, I will respond with one word: STRAWMAN.

If it's a legitimate question, I may answer. No promises.