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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 03:45 AM Original message |
THE SMOKING GRAPH: GORE (tight) VS. KERRY (wide) EXIT POLL DEVIATIONS |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 03:57 AM Response to Original message |
1. Here are the numbers, straight from the MSNBC site. |
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tritsofme (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:01 AM Response to Original message |
2. Why do you assume that the 2000 data |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:08 AM Response to Reply #2 |
3. I am not assuming a damn thing. Perhaps you could enlighten us. n/t |
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tritsofme (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:18 AM Response to Reply #3 |
4. You're looking at apples and oranges |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:27 AM Response to Reply #4 |
6. I use the only data I have for 2004- thats 63% of the final total. |
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tritsofme (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:32 AM Response to Reply #6 |
8. What I'm getting at is |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 05:05 AM Response to Reply #8 |
12. Because... |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 02:20 PM Response to Reply #6 |
28. LOL |
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Heewack (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 01:36 PM Response to Reply #4 |
25. That is what would make a comparison difficult if not |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:38 PM Response to Reply #25 |
32. The early BS calls for Bush in FL were due to the Volusia scam. |
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Heewack (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:46 PM Response to Reply #32 |
33. That's a very good point. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 06:17 PM Response to Reply #33 |
39. How do you know that the polls were unweighted? |
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Heewack (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 09:00 PM Response to Reply #39 |
43. According to Mitofsky |
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IndyOp (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 03:40 PM Response to Reply #4 |
31. tritsofme -- Wouldn't the exit poll companies have |
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tritsofme (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 05:56 PM Response to Reply #31 |
38. It has always been my understanding |
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IndyOp (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 07:53 PM Response to Reply #38 |
41. Okay, but the exit poll data that TIA & Stephen Freeman & everyone else |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:19 AM Response to Reply #2 |
5. Oh, you should know that I calculated the 2-party percentages |
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dzika (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:30 AM Response to Reply #5 |
7. TIA - You are a Fraud Discovery Machine! n/t |
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chorti (104 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:38 AM Response to Original message |
9. exit polls massaged differently |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 05:09 AM Response to Reply #9 |
13. Late undecideds went at least 2-1 for Kerry, maybe 3-1. n/t |
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IndyOp (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 03:27 PM Response to Reply #9 |
30. Holy smokes -- I THOUGHT SO! |
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Celeborn Skywalker (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:38 AM Response to Original message |
10. Thank you for your efforts |
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weeve (427 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:44 AM Response to Original message |
11. Thank you TIA |
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liberalla (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 05:40 AM Response to Original message |
14. WOW! |
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DELUSIONAL (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 10:43 AM Response to Original message |
15. Kick |
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Bouvet_Island (227 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 10:50 AM Response to Original message |
16. Hi truthisall, |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 12:22 PM Response to Reply #16 |
21. First of all, I don't claim to be a polling expert; I'm just an analyst |
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left15 (119 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 12:47 PM Response to Reply #21 |
22. The math seems sound, but I have a question on your conclusion. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 04:51 PM Response to Reply #22 |
34. I won't respond to that Jesusland strawman. |
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L. Coyote (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 01:18 PM Response to Reply #21 |
24. Regarding the MOE calculated for various sample sizes ... |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 05:15 PM Response to Reply #24 |
35. Not quite. The MOE is strictly a function of sample size. |
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L. Coyote (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 07:27 PM Response to Reply #35 |
40. Precincts are being sampled. They are the population size. |
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jkd (151 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Dec-26-04 05:22 PM Response to Reply #24 |
44. Question? L Coyote |
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L. Coyote (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 02:04 PM Response to Reply #21 |
26. Regarding the MOE calculated for N respondents |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 05:30 PM Response to Reply #26 |
36. I make the assumption that the datasets have already been |
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L. Coyote (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 08:00 PM Response to Reply #36 |
42. There are 51 distinct exit polls, for the states and DC. |
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L. Coyote (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 10:59 AM Response to Original message |
17. Did you test the data statistically for any trends? |
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Zan_of_Texas (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 11:21 AM Response to Reply #17 |
19. L Coyote. A reminder -- not everyone has studied statistics in the last |
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L. Coyote (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 01:03 PM Response to Reply #19 |
23. Here is the raw data. I hope you can see the pattern better now. |
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IndyPriest (685 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 11:08 AM Response to Original message |
18. Tia: one of the advantages of this comparison is that |
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bush_is_wacko (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 02:11 PM Response to Reply #18 |
27. Agreed |
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Robb (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 11:53 AM Response to Original message |
20. TIA, you rule as always. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 05:53 PM Response to Reply #20 |
37. Only a few deviated beyond the MOE- equally. This it how it should be. |
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Firespirit (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Dec-24-04 02:22 PM Response to Original message |
29. Good on ya! |
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georgia10 (118 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Dec-26-04 06:58 PM Response to Original message |
45. Wow, good stuff, TruthIsAll |
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