The mechanics of Phantom Votes in New Mexico

[PeterPan]

Hi I am Warren Stewart that hedda refers to in the New Mexico Thread and I felt this response to a question about phantom votes deserved in own thread. I co-authored a report that presents an analysis of the certified election results in New Mexico (different and far more detailed numbers than those being used in arguments in DU.)

the report can be downloaded from help america recount
http://helpamericarecount.org/NewMexico2004ElectionDataReport.pdf

the complete database can be downloaded there as well
http://helpamericarecount.org/NM%20State%20Data%203.6.1.xls


A phantom vote describes a situation in which the number of votes in a particular race (in this case president) is greater than the number of ballots cast in any particular reporting unit. Inversely an undervote describes a situation in which the total votes is less than the total ballots cast. When using the statewide totals as your level of agregation each phantom vote at a lower level of agregation cancels out an undervote and simultaneously disappears (the phantom dies in the process of killing an undervote.) However if you do your figures at the lowest possible level of aggregation (what we are calling voting type, ie early vote, election day vote, and absentee vote for each precinct) the phantoms survive and so do the undervotes. For a random example in Santa Fe county precinct 43 there were 313 early voting ballots that produced 323 presidential votes (10 phantom votes) on electiuon day there were 337 ballots cast and 312 presidential votes (25 undervotes), in absentee voting there were 304 ballots cast and 302 presidential votes (2 undervotes) so that means 27 undervotes and 10 phantom votes - but if you take the precinct totals as your level of aggregation you have 17 undervotes and 0 phantom votes - the 10 phantom votes cancelled out 10 undervotes and simultaneously disappeared. Of course phantom votes are only revealed in situations in which there are more phantom votes than undervotes - so we can only guess how many have been hidden - and how much the undervote totals have been reduced!

There are far more outrageous examples of phantom votes. Dona ana county precinct 106 reported 107 absentee ballots that resulted in 325 presidential votes - 228 phantom votes that of course disappeared even at the county level.

Please read the report!

[pleiku52cab]

1. In plain english

It seems the Fraud occurred after the voting and most probably during the tabulation. Easier than fixing a lot of individual voting machines - just 'adjust' the totals during the tallying process.

[PeterPan]

2. We have machine tabulations

for some counties and will eventually have them for all counties - just haven't plugged all the numbers in yet. In looking at Sanat Fe County the machine tabulations seem to match. One factor we have not been able to deal with yet is provisional ballots which were folded in to the election day totals for 32 of the 33 counties (Bernalillo separated the provisionals into early vote, election day and absentee) this new information will not change our conclussions in any significant way but it will allow us to be more precise about the machine type used in counting every vote since provisionals are counted on an opscan machine while about half the counties used electronic voting for election day. Votes by Machine Type is detailed in the report to the level of detail currently available and will be updated when more data becomes available after the weekend.

[IStriker]

8. Maybe this explains the reason why it takes N.M. longer than...

any other states to tally their votes despite the fact that they only have a very few voters compared to most states. I thought it was all that counting on their fingers and toes, but maybe it just takes a LONG LONG time if you are counting and cheating, counting and cheating, both at the same time.

[Demit]

3. Thanks for pointing that out--and explaining it so well!

One of those arcane facts that doesn't occur to a regular person, but makes you go "Ohhhhh.....hey, wow!" once you hear it. Thanks for all your work, Warren!

[Viva_La_Revolution]

4. Wow.

That's a lot of info to assimilate in one reading! Great report. :toast:

Ohio has to be the focus of the fight for the next few weeks, but when this goes into debate on Jan. 6 (crossing fingers), your effort will help us show just how widespread and inaccurate the certified results are. :thumbsup:
Kudos!

[Bill of Rights]

5. Shocking!

Pity the expatriates whose stateside homebase is Dona Ana County, in New Mexico. 207 absentee ballots were mailed in from overseas. None of them had votes for president. 100% were undervotes.

[Mister Ed]

6. Good Post. The report you linked to is a very worthwhile read. n/t

[PeterPan]

7. "Impossible" Phantom votes in New Mexico

"Impossible" Phantom votes in New Mexico

In Andy Lenderman's Albuquerque Journal article "Vote Recount Fight 'Is Not Over' ", he tells us that New Mexico's Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron claimed "so-called phantom votes are not possible." She says that independent auditors didn't find any phantom votes in the presidential election, and "If I would have found some irregularities, believe you me I would have brought them out and questioned them." Such claims notwithstanding those phantom votes are right there in the certified results. While the phantoms come mostly from Bernalillo County, significant numbers come from Dona Ana and Santa Fe Counties. In all fifteen counties reported at least one 'impossible' phantom vote. Bernalillo's 1,239 phantom Votes had the effect of reducing the county's apparent undervote count from7,045 (2.68%) to 5,806 (2.21%.)

Here's the Top 20 Phantom Vote Precincts. I would suggest that there may be whole deveelopments full of haunted houses in New Mexico, at least judging by the Secretary of State's impossible certified results.


Precinct, Voting Type, Total Ballots-Bush-Kerry-Others-Pres Votes-Phantoms
Dona Ana Co., Pct. 106, Absentee 107-189-123-13-325-218
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 512, Absentee 166-206-104-8-318-152
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 558, Early Voting 178-173-144-2-319-141
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 559, Early Voting 234-181-177-6-364-130
Grant Co., Pct. 019, Election Day 205-149-133-3-285-80
Santa Fe Co., Pct. 051 Absentee, 326-83-317-5-405-79
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 033 Absentee 119-36-159-3-198-79
McKinley Co., Pct. 999 Absentee 0-50-13-0-63-63
Taos Co., Pct. 999 Absentee 0-11-42-1-54-54
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 089 Absentee 390-273-164-4-441-51
Rio Arriba Co., Pct. 003 Early Voting 100-63-82-1-146-46
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 021 Absentee 258-165-129-2-296-38
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 114 Absentee 281-198-118-2-318-37
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 115 Absentee 513-316-225-4-545-32
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 082 Absentee 189-122-96-3-221-32
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 112 Absentee 197-119-107-1-227-30
Bernalillo Co., Pct. 084 Absentee 182-111-94-5-210-28
San Juan Co., Pct. 999 Absentee 0-14-12-1-27-27
Otero Co., Pct. 999 Absentee 0-16-11-0-27-27
Chaves Co., Pct. 006 Absentee 281-235-71-1-307-26

[LizW]

13. What are the possible explainations

for how phantom votes happen? Aside from fraud, I mean?

Is there any way this could happen innocently? Like, I don't know, machines not being set to zero before the counting begins or something?

It's frankly weird for the SOS to claim these phantoms are "impossible" when they are right there in black and white. One would think they would come up with some other explaination, if there is one.

Is any official offering ANY rational explaination for this, or are they just pretending it didn't happen?

[pointsoflight]

9. Thanks for passing this on. Worth a close read! n/t

[bleever]

10. Kickin' it Christmas style.

[PeterPan]

11. kick

[emlev]

12. kick

kick