Election Fraud Fantasy World

[many a good man]

I'm not a statistician but I've always been amazed at how amazingly accurate statistical analysis can be when given a large enough sample and enough information.

That led me to wonder what it would be like if you had perfect statistical information about everything!

What would perfect information consist of in the context of election fraud? You would need detailed information down to the precinct level. How would you get this information? Easy. If you 1) manage the system that registers voters; and 2) tabulate the election results.

Think of the information this would give you:

1) You would know the exact number of registered voters in each precinct and their party affiliation.

2) You would know every time each registered voter actually cast a vote in previous elections, enabling you to predict his/her likelihood of voting again

3) You would know the exact voting totals for each precinct going back in time

4) You would be able predict which precincts are most likely to be targets of hand re-counts given the election rules in effect


With this information alone you could probably predict the outcome within a small MOE. Make some adjustment a fews days before the election based on the latest polling data and voila! You know the results before a single ballot has been cast.

To give a candidate a 4% edge you would only have to "flip" 2% of the vote. Statistical analysis would enable you to spread your deception around in the smallest possible amounts to avoid detection. Remember, a state has thousands of precincts. You could entirely avoid precincts that have the highest probability of being recounted.

After a few cycles you would own the baseline and the expectations. Add a pinch or two of voter suppression and only the slightest amount of tweaking would be required to ensure your man victory every time.


BTW: did you catch the news that TRIAD provides BOTH voter registration software AND vote tabulation software for several counties in many states?

[RevCheesehead]

1. That's a really interesting theory.

I read reports of voter intimidation (I believe in Milwaukee), where the Rep. poll observers were entering people's names on their Palm's as they came to the table for their ballot. Their claim was that this was for their records on "Get Out the Vote."

I can understand that explanation, but could that same information be used, perhaps for more nefarious purposes? Just wonderin'.

[many a good man]

2. Its NOT a theory

I'm not even convinced that electronic fraud even took place in Ohio. I was hoping to get some statisticians or electoral analysis specialists to step in and comment on whether they thought that having this kind of complete information would be dreamy.

TRIAD's share of the registration and tabulation data is too small to be of much use. However it does bother me that so many election software companies have executives that lean Republican...

[Carolab]

10. Milwaukee? Interesting because

the BARBIAN family is quite large there, and involved in politics as well. Check it out. There is even a Michael Barbian in Milwaukee who is a cop. Been wondering whether he is related to Michael Jr. of Triad infamy. Also there is a Michael Barbian born the same year as Michael of Triad (1974) who is a registered sex offender (community of Greenfield). They have different middle initials though.

[hootinholler]

3. The sky in that world is looking blue...

The neat thing is they use IBM card readers, so in theory the card images (actually lines as read) could be copied to a file bypassing all the triad code.

Once imported to a DB...

-Hoot

-Just throwin out idears

[roseBudd]

8. You would need the precinct match to candidate rotation/position info

I think that is what triad is paid to provide for every election

[anamandujano]

4. kick, because I want to hear more thoughts on this

[many a good man]

5. Kick for the afternoon math/stats/poll freaks

Do you think being in possession of all this information would allow fraudsters to manipulate the election with an infinitesimally small probability of getting caught?

[roseBudd]

6. I read somewhere that flipping 1 vote per precinct in Ohio would give

him his margin in Ohio. That margin is 118,000.

[many a good man]

7. Anybody know how many precincts there are in Ohio?

I'm sure there are thousands. 118 thousand sounds a little high...

[many a good man]

9. Voter registration data: a gold mine

If you had the names and addresses and party affiliation of all registered voters you could join that with other existing databases with demographic data. You would know things like average income, median home value, and marketing preferences.

You could also use the name and address information to get highly detailed information on individuals if you could match the names with existing confidential databases owned by entities such as stores, banks, investment companies, libraries, DMVs...

I'm fantasizing, of course; we have no proof that these interrelationships exist on any meaningful level. Yet it is entirely within the realm of possibility, at least in specific areas.

[megalith]

12. Mining the Gold

This is in fact what the Rebublican party has been working on for some time. Voter databases with rich, finely grained detail. IF they had access to raw tabulator data from elections, when combined with all the other info available it would give them a real advantage.

There were a number of articles in late 2003 early 2004 on the subject, as the Demos freely admited they were light years behind the Repugs, did not even have one unified database of demo party affiliates for the national party at that time. The demos are playing catchup and they have a long way to go.

I seem to remember that the Rebugs were working on unified databases for precinct level voting patterns and histories, again public record but requires real work to harvest.

Torch, its not a fantasy

Orren

[many a good man]

13. Gulp!

:wow:

[bleever]

11. Hmmm...you could call it "Total Election Management"

Sell it to the politicians by promising to take the "middle man" (i.e., voters) out of the equation.

:)

[flpoljunkie]

14. The same Triad Management Systems in "What's the Matter with Kansas?"

From "What's the Matter with Kansas?", p. 81-82 by Thomas Frank...

"...The Kansas sensibility with which Vernon Smith is most closely connected is not that of populism, but Koch Industries, the nation's second-largest privately held company. Based in Wichita, Koch's primary business is oil, but is far better known for its owners' openhanded political activities than for its petroleum operations. The founder of the dunasty, Fred Koch, was a charter member of the John Birch Soceity. His billionaire son Charles founded the libertarian Cato Institute in 1977, and another billionaire son, David, ran for vice president on the Libertarian ticket in 1980. Koch money flowed through Triad Management Services, which delivered such crucial assistance to Sam Brownback's Senate campaign in 1996; and Koch money, mingled with the money of so many other oil interests,supported the presidential campaign of George W. Bush."