Question: The Arnebeck suit Moss vs. Bush has very specific numbers

[roseBudd]

How did the lawyers come up with these numbers by county?

http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/docs/ohio/MossvBush/certification.pdf

Unfortunately this document is an image so I can't copy and paste the counties and numbers for analysis.

Starting on page 48, they list by county exactly how many votes were flipped from Kerry to Bush, and then continue in the next section to specify which counties and how many votes were flipped from Ellen Connaly to Thomas Moyer.


What I notice when I view this information, being from Ohio, is that Ellen Connaly had her votes flipped in a part of Ohio where she would do well because people knew who she was, in the northern counties of Ohio. Her votes were not flipped in Southern Ohio where no one had heard of her.

And Kerry's votes were flipped to Bush in counties where Ellen Connaly experienced no vote flipping and reportedly polled better than Kerry in numerous GOP stronghold counties where republicans would not have known who she was as ran an underfunded race.
The 2 biggest counties for Kerry to Bush vote flipping are Warren & Butler in S. Ohio.

[Florida_Geek]

1. picture here

[KaliTracy]

2. The SOS site has county by county breakdown for each race

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/11-02-04.htm

is that what you are asking?

[roseBudd]

3. No the Moss vs Bush lawsuit has specified how many votes per county are

believed to have been flipped from Kerry to Bush. Butler was about 23,000, Warren about 12,000, Hamilton about 7,000, etc.

[flpoljunkie]

4. A very good question, indeed. How did they derive these numbers?

[KaliTracy]

5. I thought they were comparing

the number of votes for Connally .vs Kerry, etc. and making calculations from that. That's why i posted the results links. Maybe they were looking at something else, too.

[nicho]

10. right, they used numbers for the Supreme court election

and assumed that everyone who voted for the democrat Supreme Court candidate voted for Kerry, and likewise for Bush.

[bush_is_wacko]

6. You know

I got one look at the Colorado numbers and it was quite apparent that was EXACTLY what happened here too. It was as if EVERYONE that voted for the Democratic candidate for Senator had ALSO voted for Bush. Kerry got the same number (within 50-150) as the Republican candidate we did not elect. I find it incredibly hard to believe that virtually EVERYONE that voted for Ken Salazar (D) voted for Bush and EVERYONE that voted for Coors (R) voted for Kerry. I'm not kidding when I say this was so close as to be laughable. The numbers were so close to identical I thought it WAS a joke at first! The funny thing is Coloradoans voted across the board for EVERY environmental and school funding issue on the ballot. All of these issues I consider Democratic/Independent/Liberal issues. For all intents and purposes Coloradoans sent a message that we will no longer support Republican agendas in this state, but we WILL support Bush. How does that make sense?

[trudyco]

7. Hey whacko, do you know if anybody is doing FOIA in CO? nt

[bush_is_wacko]

11. I know there was a group working on it back in late Nov. early Dec.

I have not heard from them since then. In fact, I have not seen much activity at all in Colorado since then. It may be the holidays, but I am really feeling frustrated about the lack of info here. I do know Ken Salazar, our new Senator and outgoing Attorney General, has the numbers. There was a big push to get them to him. We lack organization in a big way and we are so spread out it is hard to get everyone in the same place at the same time. Some of us would have to drive for 4 hours or more to meet with each other. Not easy to do that on a regular basis. I am not a numbers person. Working with them gives me a headache, so I can't tell you much more than what I've been able to digest from the information I've been given.

[mostly_lurking]

8. What is your point?

Are you suggesting that the votes were president were flipped one-for-one?

[bush_is_wacko]

13. That is what it looks like to a lot of us.

I know it sounds insane, but the numbers are GLARING. I originally saw them on a DU thread. Then in the paper. Our papers have a way of hiding things like this in very tiny print way out of the way of most readers. I just found out Colorado is involved in one of these suits and that is one of the charges. Apparently one of our major papers published the names of those who's votes were challenged. They did so in tiny print and even I never caught it and I try to peruse everything, since this has always been how they handle important information. I'll get you the Du thread re: the numbers. It is accurate from what I can tell, except that Boulder county, which is a democratic stronghold was not included yet, I think. The numbers didn't change much as far as the craziness goes after Boulder was added.

[bush_is_wacko]

14. Oops, my mistake the numbers are more than my margin stated

but still not enough not to be GLARING!

Here's the DU thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=142&topic_id=2703&mesg_id=2703

By the way, the CNN numbers no longer show the Senatorial numbers, I didn't research the page enough to find them, I gotta go, but if you find anything that dispells the information let me know. I want to know the TRUTH, either way. I'll check back tonight!

[mostly_lurking]

15. That doesn't make sense

You can look at the numbers county by county. If the votes were "flipped" then Denver county would have gone solidly for Bush and Douglas county would have gone solidly for Kerry (for example).

As a Colorado resident myself, I am not surprised that both Salazar (D) and Bush (R) won. Colorado Republicans outnumber Democrats and have for a long time. We have a lot of "independent" voters that can go either way.

The plain truth is Salazar is a well-known and well-liked politician in Colorado, which also has a very large Hispanic population (that clearly helped Salazar).

Boulder county is indeed a VERY Democratic county. Once those numbers are added in I believe the numbers wouldn't seem so "glaring."

[bush_is_wacko]

21. I would and did agree with you regarding Colorado support of Republicans

As I said numbers give me a headache, so I can't decipher them as well as others. "Flipped", may not be the correct word, but they don't look right. Some percentage could have been deducted or added to one or the other candidate and still produce this type of total. It just doesn't look right. I think they are still an issue. I would really like to see the numbers looked at closer. Yes, not only is Salazar well liked, he is also a moderate Dem. A lot of Coloradoans have that same moderate streak in them.

As I said, it is still hard to believe that the MAJORITY, by large amounts, of people voted for Bush and Salazar.

There are also LARGE pockets of Liberal/Democrats in several of the outlying areas of the Metro Area. "Granola heads" is what they are referred to by some. These people are highly unlikely to vote Republican ever. As you know, I'm sure, we have a large population here that is very environmentally active. I have attended a lot of meetings with them. They would never support the Republican environmental agenda. And bush represents the worst of the worst to many of them. I think they, at least, tried to send a message to Bush Co., but the numbers I've seen do not reflect that. They don't all live in Boulder. Many of them cannot afford to live there so they live in areas like Western Jefferson County. I would like someone with a better grasp on the numbers to explain the numbers to me. I do believe SOME would vote Bush/Salazar, but not MOST.

Just a foot note, it appears to me as if the trend in Denver is to replace Owens w/ a Democrat. I live in the exurbs and my impression is that the trend here is leaning more to Democratic (i.e. environmental) issues than in the past, not the opposite.

[bmoney07]

17. same thing happened in florida

1. Castor recieved more votes than Kerry
2. the min. wage amendment on the ballot passed overwhelmingly even though those people are usually dems.

and there were a few other examples but I have since forgotton, but who cares everyone said fuck florida, who needs their 27 electoral votes.

Nothing to see here in the bannana republic just move along.

[KerryOn]

20. I just took a quick look at

the number of votes for Kerry vs Supreme court Justice in Ohio. I don't think that is the case. At first glace here is no correlation.

[GetTheRightVote]

9. the final proof of a stolen election is the Triad Tech on Videa

the ducks are all lining up and my only hope is that the courts do their job serving justice. This is a big hope since the Ohio courts are loaded with Republicans. * & Com. biggest of all flip-floppers.

:kick:

[Goblyn]

12. Chief Justice Moyer has had recusal issues before

A Lawsuit involving an energy company came across his bench. He was asked to recuse himself from the case because..
He had received contributions during his election campaign from said Energy company...

Repugs all the same.

http://www.ohiocitizen.org/campaigns/electric/2004/recuse.htm


Update!!

ohh looky here from October this year.

http://www.independent-media.tv/itemprint.cfm?fmedia_id=9582&fcategory_desc=Under%20Reported

More issues with CJ Moyer..

this is disgusting..

[KerryOn]

16. here is a spread sheet for you.

I had started looking at this last week, but never had time to play with it. Perhaps someone would like to try it.

html formate can be copied and pasted:
http://my.core.com/~dlrslr/OhioDisputedVotes.htm

Excel Formate:
http://my.core.com/~dlrslr/OhioDisputedVotes.xls

[KerryOn]

18. If you need the third part break down you can find it here:

http://my.core.com/~dlrslr/ElectionResults2004/Ohio2004.htm

[roseBudd]

19. Good visual regarding which counties have the most disputed ballots

and which counties have none. Montgomery County, (Dayton) Franklin (Columbus)Cuyahoga (Cleveland) all have 0 disputed votes. The counties with the largest number of disputed votes are Butler, Warren and Clermont, then Hamilton. All in SW Ohio.