Ohio Precincts compared to Registered Voters -- please review

[KaliTracy]

I started thinking about the numbers of precincts tonight because of other posts. On the SOS website, archived data goes back many years. I went back to 1980. They don't break out the vote tallies per county like they do for 1996, 2000, and 2004, so that wasn't a help for some of the other number crunchers.

But looking at just precincts and voters something needs to be noted.

From 1980 to 1984 there was an increase of voters by 369,950.
From 1980 to 1984 there was a decrease of precincts by 36.

From 1984 to 1988 there was a decrease of voters by 56,816.
From 1984 to 1988 there was a increase of precincts by 285.


From 1988 to 1992 there was an increase of voters by 261,298.
From 1988 to 1992 there was an increase of precincts by 157.

Since 1992 things started going a little different. More voters, less precincts. Every General Election Cycle.

From 1992 to 1996 there was an increase of voters by 300,485.
From 1992 to 1996 there was a decrease of precincts by 602.

From 1996 to 2000 there was an increase of voters by 697,767.
From 1996 to 2000 there was a decrease of precincts by 985.

From 2000 to 2004 there was an increase of voters by 439,482.
From 2000 to 2004 there was a decrease of precincts by 785.

**From 1992 to 2004 there has been an increase of voters by
1,437,734

** From 1992 to 2004 there has been a decrease of precincts by 2,372 -- the most not occuring this year, but in 2000!

I got this all from the SOS website. Slap me if I did something wrong.

here's the data I used:

1980
Precincts Reporting.......... 100%
# of Precincts............... 13,332
# of Registered Voters.......5,962,864
Total Votes Cast.............4,378,937
Percent of Votes Cast........73.88%

Actual Voters/Precincts...... 328 (This would be the number if voters to precincts were evenly distributed -- in this case would be 328 voters per precinct -- not the real number per precinct, but just for reference -- you'll see why as you get further down.)


1884
Precincts Reporting.......... 100%
# of Precincts............... 13,296
# of Registered Voters.......6,332,454
Total Votes Cast.............4,664,223
Percent of Votes Cast........73.66%

Actual Voters/Precincts...... 351


1888
Precincts Reporting.......... 100%
# of Precincts............... 13581
# of Registered Voters.......6,275,638
Total Votes Cast.............4,505,284
Percent of Votes Cast........71.79%

Actual Voters/Precincts...... 331

1992
Precincts Reporting.......... 100%
# of Precincts............... 13,738
# of Registered Voters.......6,536,936
Total Votes Cast.............5,043,094
Percent of Votes Cast........77.14%

Actual Voters/Precincts...... 367

1996
Precincts Reporting.......... 100%
# of Precincts............... 13,136
# of Registered Voters.......6,837,421
Total Votes Cast.............4,638,108
Percent of Votes Cast........67.83%

Actual Voters/Precincts...... 353


2000
Precincts Reporting.......... 100%
# of Precincts............... 12,151
# of Registered Voters.......7,535,188
Total Votes Cast.............4,795,989
Percent of Votes Cast........63.6%

Actual Voters/Precincts...... 394



2004
Precincts Reporting.......... 100%
# of Precincts............... 11,366
# of Registered Voters.......7,974,670
Total Votes Cast.............5,722,211
Percent of Votes Cast........71.75%

Actual Voters/Precincts...... 503

***
I'm going to write a letter to a few people -- am I misinterpreting anything?

Analysis?

[whistle]

1. Do you have a similar analysis for the rest of the states...

..., the key battle ground states or the country as a whole? That is a very telling trend.

[autorank]

2. KaliTracy, sorry, I'm a little slow tonight. Tell us what this might mean

Please/thankyou. Very nice post!

[KaliTracy]

5. good question. I think this post is asking: WHY did Blackwell go down 785

precincts when *everyone* (MSM reported it, remember?) knew that Ohio was going to be an important state?

WHY did MSM talk about long lines months before the election in Ohio?

Long lines didn't need to happen -- precincts didn't need to be merged, hell, there really wasn't a huge increase in registered voters if you look at the trends throughout the last 20 years....

I, more than ever, want to get a breakdown per precinct of how many voters were "allocated" per precinct.

I want to know who made decisions to hold machines back, and why.

I want accountability, dammit! ;) (*wink*)

so-- is this enough to demand it?? or do I need something more before I start spouting out the mouth, and e-mailing media and state and congress people?

[autorank]

13. You are bright! I think this makes perfect sense. Good work!!!

[KaliTracy]

14. *blush* thanks n/t

[autorank]

18. De Nada

[MarkusQ]

3. The next step...

...is this an over-all trend? Or are some areas, demographics, etc. being crowded? And why?

--MarkusQ

[NoBushSpokenHere]

4. I believe the change was made by Republicans in order to elect

I believe the change was made by Republicans in order to elect more republicans to senate, house, etc. We were massively redistricted. I could be wrong about it affecting the precincts, but thought it was all tied in together.

[insane_cratic_gal]

6. There is one I noticed

there was a trend

Dem's lost 480 precincts this year

Reps lost 451 (i think)

K- counties- +35 added back in

B-+39

I only compared stats from 2000-2004

One precinct alone lost 149! Summit County

Mahoning 104

the largest cut for bush was 34

[KaliTracy]

9. May I ask where you got that data? 59sunburst was looking

for precinct data -- do you have vote tallies per precinct, too?

[insane_cratic_gal]

17. I took it off the SOS

site.

It's posted there I printed out 2000 and 2004 presidential race.

Subtract the number of precincts listed per county 2000 to 2004

you come up with the difference per county(precincts) now if you look at the increase in registered voters and see the cuts. I didn't even need to see if it was a Kerry county the numbers spoke for themselves, but I would reaffirm anyway to be sure. He had huge gashes in cuts. the least amount was Belmont county 2 slashed from 2000. 2nd was Trumbull at 10 slashed from 2000.

Bush had a bunch of 1's and 2's Fulton 1 slashed, Gallia 1 slashed, Butler 1 slashed.

compared the votes in those counties to the tallies on CNN to see which one went for which candidate.

It took me 4 hours to cover it all. But print it up and start looking at the cuts. then compare it to the voter turn out. And the new number of registered voters.

There was only 1 county that came in with less registered voters, and less turn out then 2000. Everyone else seemed to increase by 1,000 or more per county. 50,000 In heavy African American counties that had their machines slashed from 5 to 3 from 2002.

It got interesting, but I had no conclusive proof, I hate numbers lol. So I'm glad to see someone else chimed up on it. It was odd to me, but then again what do I know.

[KaliTracy]

19. right after the election i started playing with the numbers

after Pam Fessler's (All Things Considered) comment about Democrats voting Republican in Florida, and that it seemed to be a "trend" (HOW did they know this? It was supposition, not reporting).

I'm not even sure I got anywhere with the hours I put into that spreadsheet, since I was using primary data in order to get an idea of "registered" democrats to republicans.

I had just started doing 2000 to compare to 2004 when I found DU, and found other number crunchers. But the merging of the precincts has been gnawing at me, and the incredible "you can't touch me" attitude of Blackwell has me incensed (he's originally from my area (Cincinnati, and wasn't too good here, either).

Thanks for sharing your hard work!

[insane_cratic_gal]

22. I wish I had a spreadsheet

My is all written down in a note book with an old fashion calculator. Might as well be paper napkins lol.

Being a math-phobia, I decided that someone with more brawn would come along and figure it out. Just doing the initial attempt things looked wrong, when you start to subtract the 2000 precincts from 2004. I just couldn't figure out how they came to the choice to cut 149 precincts in one county?

Does the BOE make that choice? To the dems and reps flip coins to decide? With the biggest turn out in years? It makes no sense to me why they would cut a single one of them. I couldn't get answer so there for anything I could put forward would be weak.

Then to combine them into 2 into one building?

Franklin did get +28, but I wonder after watching the hearings held in Franklin how many of those +28 were in the same building. I'd be interested to know that. If you can come up with that data some how.

Keep me posted on what you find out, I would be interested to know. If you need any help or digging send me a PM I'd be happy to help

[many a good man]

33. Democrats use paper napkins, Republicans use Data Warehouses

Information is power. We're so far behind we could get crushed before we can catch up...

[KaliTracy]

11. IMO -- some areas are being crowded.... did you see the video?

http://460design.net/ohio/

people waited in line for 2 hours to be told their precinct was across the street, and they had to wait in line another 2 hours. etc.

This all reeks. Machine disparity was the reason I got involved in this in the first place (I estimated over 23 machines in a 1 to 2 mile stretch in my Red Neighborhood -- with many more precincts scattered throughout -- * rallied here to 50,000 people). At 7:30 am I had no line, no wait, and at 6:30 PM there was still no lines out the door, etc. (don't know what it was like in the building). I don't care who won (well, ok, yeah, I do), but This was NOT a valid election, and their excuses about getting ready for the 'machines' reeks too.

I think there were several plans that were implemented. At the very Least SOMEONE needs to hold Blackwell accountable for his actions and his interpretations of the law...

[L. Coyote]

32. Can you break the stats down by voting machine type, counties?

Excellent thread. Important stuff too.

MarkusQ makes a good point here. Is a strategy visible here, or hidden here.

In Cuyahoga, a disturbing pattern has emerged with ballot number/precinct number combinations manipulated to switch the most possible Kerry votes to Bush votes.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=196518&mesg_id=196518

Also, the data you have shows net change. How many precincts were recombined differently, how many locations were changed RE numbers of precincts at a location, number of ballot orders at locations, etc?

How does this compare in punch card counties compared to counties with no cross-votes?

[mulethree]

7. Here's a good writeup on 2004

I hadn't realized that there had been so much activity in previous years. One suggestion, you should be able to get 2002 and 1998 numbers pretty easily.

http://www.tucsonweekly.com/gbase/Currents/Content?oid=oid%3A62991

But Republican governor Bob Taft and Blackwell did prepare: They reduced the number of polling places, ensuring long lines. As noted above, the state had been anticipating the purchase of DRE machines, which are both more expensive and--at least in theory--quicker. That meant, according to Blackwell, that counties could make do with fewer machines without affecting the lines. The Republican-led Legislature helped encourage precinct consolidation by raising the maximum allowable number of registered voters per precinct. So, some counties merged their polling places, cutting as many as 48 percent in some cases.

--
Here's the rub: An analysis shows that the precinct reductions disproportionately hurt Ohio's Democratic turnout.

Of Ohio's 88 counties, 20 suffered a significant reduction--shutting at least 20 percent (or at least 30) of their precincts. Most of those counties have Republicans serving as Board of Elections director, including the four biggest: Cuyahoga, Montgomery, Summit and Lucas.

Those 20 counties went heavily to Gore in 2000, 53 to 42 percent. The other 68 counties, which underwent little-to-no precinct consolidation, went exactly the opposite way in 2000: 53 to 42 percent to Bush.

In the 68 counties that kept their precinct count at or near 2000 levels, Kerry benefited from the high turnout, getting 24 percent more votes than Gore did in 2000, while Bush increased his total by only 17 percent.

But in the 20 squeezed counties, the opposite happened. Bush increased his vote total by 22 percent, and Kerry won just 19 percent more than Gore in 2000.

If the reduced number of precincts in those counties accounts for the difference, it cost Kerry about 45,000 votes. And who knows what might have happened had the state increased polling places in anticipation of the high turnout it knew was coming? And if the state had encouraged voting rather than threatened to challenge credentials? And if there had been no dirty tricks and intimidation? And if all had received their absentee ballots?

[KaliTracy]

8. thank you! The data I had didn't give this much detail.

I *do* feel that there was something fishy going on with the ballots -- but also feel that this issue of long lines, etc. was either a diversion tactic, or a 'let's cover all of our bases' -- especially seeing how many were changed from 1996 to 2000 -- when people weren't really paying much attention.

[mulethree]

10. Other year's data

2003
# of Precincts............... 11,488
# of Registered Voters.......7,138,493
Total Votes Cast.............2,649,482

2002
# of Precincts............... 11,756
# of Registered Voters.......7,113,826
Total Votes Cast.............3,356,285

2001
# of Precincts............... 11,844
# of Registered Voters.......7,153,796
Total Votes Cast.............2,574,915

1999
No precinct data
# of Registered Voters.......7,146,895
Total Votes Cast.............2,467,736

1998
# of Precincts............... 13,079
# of Registered Voters.......7,096,423
Total Votes Cast.............3,534,782

[anaxarchos]

12. Something for comparison

http://www.ohiogop.org/Accomplishments.aspx?Section=82

1990 - Republicans won the governor’s office for the first time in eight years and the secretary of state’s office for the first time in 16 years. This gave Republicans a governing majority in Ohio for the first time since the late 1960`s and enabled the party to control the apportionment process, which draws boundary lines for state legislative districts.

1994 - In addition to retaining the governor, the secretary of state and a majority in the Ohio Senate, Ohio Republicans won every statewide constitutional office and a new majority in the Ohio House of Representatives for the first time in 22 years.

[KaliTracy]

15. I was looking for something like that -- but obviously on the wrong site

thank you!

...you know... i hate that feeling when you know you have to get up in a few hours, and your brain is racing.... there isn't much time -- but we need other states to be looked at, if possible (Florida's was not as easy to navigate for a quick grab of the numbers -- I never did find the total precincts -- and they only give percentages of people who voted, unless the raw numbers were on another page.

[anaxarchos]

23. Bob Bennet is the key...

The head of the Ohio GOP is an elections specialist. Check out his resume. Nothing was done by chance.

He's also one of those who openly brags about jerrymandering.

I'll take a quick look at Florida but my guess is that this trick was Ohio specific.

[KaliTracy]

25. cool, New Mexico had problems too, I think

if you can't get to it, I'll try tomorrow. Right now, I want something scathing I can send to our papers and to the Governor, etc. calling Blackwell to task... but I'll have to craft it after work tomorrow. I appreciate your insight!

[anaxarchos]

26. Nope.

Florida precincts are structured differently (don't you just love "State's Right's"?).

1996 5958 precincts 5.3 million voters
2000 6734 precincts 5.9 million voters
2004 7241 precincts 7.5 million voters

Early voting in 2004 meant that the actual voters per precinct remained fairly stable.

Other tricks were played in Florida.

[emlev]

16. A couple of thoughts...

I'm trying to imagine what "innocent" reason there might be for this. So far I've thought of two: budget cuts and new voting machines perhaps making it possible for people to vote more quickly.

The key to discovering the significance of this data might be to pinpoint the communities that lost precincts and whether there's a clear racial or partisan link, or both.

[KaliTracy]

20. well, the excuse was switching to machines.... my mom is in

Lucas County and they "tested" machines at the primary -- but went back to optical scan for the General Election.

Here in Butler County they stayed with punch cards for the primary -- and if it was a matter of budgets -- this area probably has more $$ than most (if the BOEs control it) -- we're in a pretty upper-middle-class/bordering-on-affluent area.

But I agree -- more information needs to be gleaned from this -- thanks for your help.

[mulethree]

21. I wonder if its the right question

Does the number of precincts or their size really matter?

They often put several precincts to a polling place, so more precincts doesn't necessarily mean that they will be closer.

They could move a polling place without changing precincts, so some people show up at the place from the last election and never find their way to the new place.

The number of precincts doesn't neccessarily affect the number of poll workers or machines per voter.

The location could be less ... comfortable, e.g. standing outside, loud (acoustics), poorly lit etc. Could be more hectic - e.g. increase in caterpillar ballots.

So its a number that's easy to get, and shows a nice trend. But the same effect could be achieved without changing the number of precincts. Perhaps precinct-related cost reductions was just the cover that Republican elections directors used to make changes like above?

I wonder what it would take to get elections directors to cough up polling addresses, #machines and workers per precinct, and so forth for 2004, 2000,1996?

[KaliTracy]

24. since provisional ballots *had* to be cast in the correct

precinct, even if two or more precincts were represented in a gym, for example -- the ballot had to be given to the *correct* poll person, I think that it's a place to start. I agree, they moved places, and made things quite uncomfortable for many people -- but. as I posted above, as shown in the video -- people who waited in line for several hours were then told they were in the wrong "precinct" and had to go to the next table, across the street, down the street, etc.... and then they had to stand in line again.

The Machines per voter, I was told, in Hamilton County were supposed to be 1 per 99... in the county that had the college students, and, I think, one machine broke for awhile it was something like 1 to over 1000 (I could be over stating that -- it was on the Conyers hearing testimony/ on c-span).... in any case -- there were a *huge* amount of precincts that had ratios of over 200 per machine. Their excuse, there wasn't that much voter turn out last time... etc. I think what I am looking for (and I'm not sure I found it yet) -- is something to prove that it wasn't about less voter turnout in 2000 vs 2004, but that other factors were at work. Franklin county convinently had machines in a warehouse they never brought out. why?

AND I totally agree with a breakdown of # machines per precinct, # of workers, # of people who showed up.....how many people voted on each machine (if available) and yes, per year as well.

Considering my experience, it is my theory that the machines in use here in West Chester, Ohio did not see their "allocated" allotment of voters -- that we had more than enough machines to go around.... though I was told by the BOE in Hamilton that he didn't think it was a partisan thing because Mason (which is pretty much the same demographic as West Chester) had long lines, too (about 45 minutes to an hour). They have had tremendous growth in the last few years, but didn't think to compensate for this. Not that Primaries are any real indication of General elections, but if they had any type of turnout, they would have been able to anticipate a bigger one for the General election one would think....

[roseBudd]

35. West Chester (Butler County vs Warren County) Mason

Considering my experience, it is my theory that the machines in use here in West Chester, Ohio did not see their "allocated" allotment of voters -- that we had more than enough machines to go around.... though I was told by the BOE in Hamilton that he didn't think it was a partisan thing because Mason (which is pretty much the same demographic as West Chester) had long lines, too (about 45 minutes to an hour). They have had tremendous growth in the last few years, but didn't think to compensate for this.

The mis allocation of machines in Warren could have been to cover for the late reporting. Warren had to wait for Cuyahoga to report. How else can such a sparsely populated county justify such late reporting? By having lines to justify keeping the polls open late and to have a white county to hold up as an example of whites waiting in line also. Warren is the county that lock down just the vote tallying under the guise of homeland Security threat.

KaliTracy and others who have interesting data, feed your ideas and stats to [e-mail]. If anyone has communications with him, lets keep all informed. Erica Solvig the reporter who broke the Warren County lock down story is a pup. Howard Wilkinson could be our Woodward & Bernstein and if Moss vs. Bush is an indication, Butler, Warren and Clermont counties are key.

[KaliTracy]

37. Anyone in Warren County have long lines?

If not, why did it take so long for them to report.

(I just might have missed information about this)

Also see my post in why, why, why.... about how many machines were in a one- to two mile strip alone....

If anyone has the time to start hitting hwilkinson with info, maybe you should -- I won't be able to craft a letter until tonight... but if he bites, I'll definitely share here....

[roseBudd]

39. Warren did have long lines and did keep their polls open after 7:30

And Warren was the last county to report and was the county that gave Bush 71% and was the county that locked down the vote tallying but not the voting for a level 10 terror alert that both Homeland Security and FBI have denied.

By not having enough machines Warren was able to report later than a county of 1 million people. Fields Ertel may look like a lot of people, but trust me Warren County's population does not merit such late reporting without a ploy. Add it all together and it is mighty suspicous.

[minvis]

60. Butler County

I've posted some interesting information I've obtained from the Butler County site and I am waiting for Clermont County to send me their data this week. See the link below on Butler County info. The 4 largest precincts in Butler County had huge turnouts except for one. That was one in Oxford at Miami of Ohio University. The other three had turnouts of 80, 82 and 90 percent, one of which had over 1800 registered voters for the precinct and Bush got over 1200 votes to just over 200 votes for Kerry. Come on, now!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x166913

[mark-in-cincy]

29. It matters 'why' & 'how' a precinct is merged

It does matter if a precinct is merged with another one if the machine or station count remains the same while number of voters goes up. The news I read on this is Blackwell merged quite a number of precincts because they were going to get e-voting machines and the manufacturers said their machines would speed up the voting process. That was one alleged reason for merging. Apparently in many instances when one precinct was merged into another they didn't keep the same ratio of machines to voters.

Of course in the product literature I'm sure who ever was selling might have used as a sweetening point claims how their e-machine would speed the process, or move voters through more quickly. Of course I think that would never be true in practical reality. When I vote I take all my notes with me so I know all those little races for judges or county clerk etc., or to figure out the tricky obscure ballot language on propositions etc. That's what takes the time for me, not poking holes, turning ballot pages or if we had e-machines in Hamilton county perhaps pushing buttons on a screen.

The scandal was when Blackwell ordered a hold on further deployment of e-machines statewide, it's alleged he never "unmerged precincts" while fully knowing there would be a higher than normal voter turnout.

I think what we really need to do is push for state-wide mandatory guidelines for minimum voter to machine ratios, then it wouldn't matter as much about merged precincts. That is unless there were accessibility issues or by excessive moving precincts around each year a certain percentage of voters were confused and didn't vote.

[mulethree]

45. You could do the same while adding precincts?

Adding or removing one would result in boundary changes to others and an opportunity to screw around with multiple precincts. I can see removing 20% of precincts as affecting a lot more than 20% of precincts?

Certainly if you moved a lot of precinct boundaries you would increase the number of people who go to the wrong polling place, or wait on line twice or put in a provisional at the wrong precinct. So just by re-precincting in target areas you could suppress the vote there somewhat.

Each affected precinct would also be an opportunity to make the other sorts of changes we've talked about. Those changes could be made independent of precinct-map changes, but if you followed a 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it' mindset, then you would need an opportunity - like precinct-map changes.

[Ronbrynaert]

27. Cuyahoga County, Ohio

As part of my ongoing campaign to document election irregularities all across the country http://www.whyareweback.blogspot.com
("50 States Mislead Their Voters") I've been looking into the decrease of precincts in the face of record amounts of registered voters.

I wrote the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections...and I was able to obtain the number of precincts for the county in 1996 (before Blackwell became Sec. of State).

I'm still working on this story...one thing that keeps popping up wherever I look...is that there are a number of fishy "democrats" involved in the election process....but this is a bit of what I've got so far:


In 1996, Cuyahoga County contained 2,126 precincts to handle a total of 904,258 registered voters (580,030 turned out, a 64.14 percentage).

In 2004, Cuyahoga County contained 1,458 precincts to handle a total of 1,007,187 registered voters (687,260 turned out).

In 2000, Cuyahoga County contained 1,505 precincts to handle a total of 1,010,764 registered voters (590,473 turned out).

Even though the number of registered voters in 2004 compared to 1996 jumped over 10 percent, the number of voting precincts decreased by 30 percent.

(If you notice...the decrease from 1996 to 2000 has nothing to do with the sorry excuse that electronic voting machines were going to be purchased).

"Since the 2000 presidential election, the Summit County Board of Elections has eliminated 149 of its precincts -- more than any other Ohio county. Why did Summit get rid of so many precincts -- nearly a quarter of the 624 it had in 2000? Although the two Democrats on the board remember it differently, the answer given by Republicans, when the decision was made three years ago, was simple: to save money by reducing the need for increasingly hard-to-find poll workers." (http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/news/10393379.htm?1c )

The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections consists of four members each appointed to a four-year term by the Secretary of State. The board has two Democratic Party and two Republican Party members.


Chairman Robert T. Bennett Republican 2-28-06
Member Edward C. Coaxum, Jr. Democrat 2-28-06
Member Sally D. Florkiewicz Republican 2-28-08
Member Loree K. Soggs Democrat 2-28-08

Thomas J. Coyne chairman prior to bennett. Democrat...arrested for DWI and testing positive for cocaine...jailed...one of the main opponents of the switch to electronic voting.

Michael Vu - the director of the board of elections cuyahoga was hired only a year and a half ago from Salt Lake City, Utah where he worked with Republicans. At the time of his hire by Cuyahoga County, Mr. Vu was only 27 years old...and he was registered as an independent but switched to the Democratic Party after winning the job.

More To Come

[anaxarchos]

49. Whoa...

There's Bob Bennett again, head of the state GOP and maestro of election "orchestration".

[Carolab]

28. Redistricting to suppress Democratic votes is "common knowledge"...

http://www.disinfopedia.org/wiki.phtml?title=Banana_Republicans%3A_Block_the_Vote

[KaliTracy]

31. so if it's common knowledge why isn't this seen as a problem (rhetetorical

For those who stood in the rain for hours, in more than one state, should be given Certificates of True Patriotism -- and those who orchestrated this mess should be kicked out of office! I don't know the law, nor can I research it today -- but it seems to me that this -- among all of the other problems -- could at least bring some kind of question about the INTEGRITY of the Vote in OHIO? I just am not satisfied with the answers "There are always problems with elections," "There were just longer lines," "There were more people voting this time," etc. to dismiss this election -- not when there were only less than 150,000 votes at stake.

[roseBudd]

40. From a PR perspective I believe we took the wrong tactic

Tabulation fraud is a big part of Moss vs. Bush and understandably because we can't count votes that were never cast due to minority vote suppression. The issue that should have always been front and center was the blatant racism the GOP used in many states. We need African Americans picketing and holding sit ins. Only the most racist republicans would not be ashamed.

I ran into a local (Cincinnati) civil rights figure shortly after the election and I asked him if retired Judge Nathaniel Jones could be of assistance in dealing with Blackwell. What he said was interesting. He said today's generation needed to step up and do something. His generation had already fought for equality and the right to vote in the 60s, now it was the current generation's turn. He said they had to care about their right to vote. What I beleive he meant is that we can't keep expecting people who are over 60 to do the heavy lifting.

I have been saying since months before the election whether it was after being at ACT, MoveOn, or the Kerry campaign headquarters is that we had way too many white people talking to white people. Sure some of us canvassed in African American neighborhoods and were well recieved but we did not have a process for involving and enabling the African American community. We assumed that black preachers had things covered on their end. We assumed that things would go as well as possible at urban precincts. Out efforts were fragmented and not well organized.

[KaliTracy]

42. Any Way to get Fliers out about January 3rd

In Key areas -- Franklin, Hamiltion, Cayahoga, etc. that detail some this?

I can make them -- but not until tonight -- (really need to get off this forum right now...)

I was going to hit Montgomery County with some of the Quotes posted a couple of days ago -- if we could create a flier about Blackwell's PLAN to Limit Votes... (or something)....

I know it's short notice... I know many might not understand the need -- but I think something at least needs to posted. Any letters We Write in the next day may or may not make it to MSM....

[roseBudd]

47. I think to successfully put an African American face on this racist GOP

suppression tactic you will need to contact groups who can mobilize African Americans. Perhaps OH state representatives Catherine Barret or Mark Mallory can help. Barrett was at the Jesse Jackson rally.

[roseBudd]

48. Catherine L. Barrett contact info

Catherine L. Barrett
77 S. High St
10th Floor
Columbus,OH 43215-6111
Telephone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
Email Address: [e-mail]


I could not find a listing for Mark Mallory. I do know Catherine Barrett has a condo in Cincinnati as I know her cousin.

[DoYouEverWonder]

30. You might be interested in the article from 03-2004

I believe that according to OH election law there is supposed to be one machine per 200 voters. Here are some of the ways they were trying to dance around this issue and their rational for reducing and consolidating precincts. Also, they say they got a 'reprieve' from the Feds in regards to implementing the HAVA act. Seems there might be a few smoking guns here.


Hanging chads proving costly

March 25, 2004

<snip>

"The very first thing the board's going to need to look at is reducing precincts," Elections Administrator Tony Reissig said.

Williams said he'd like to knock the number down to 700. That would require fewer poll workers, reducing the number of people who have to be trained on the new system. It also would mean many voters could wind up casting ballots in new places.

Using polling locations that don't separate precincts into different rooms would also enable several precincts to share voting machines. Even so, Williams said, the county now has one polling booth per 98 voters, and he doesn't want to go higher than one machine per 150 registered voters.

The state is distributing its expected $133 million for new voting machines on the basis of one machine for every 200 voters. The six Ohio counties that have touch-screen voting - including Franklin - average one machine per 242 voters, Blackwell spokesman Carlo LoParo said Wednesday.


http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/03/25/loc_voting25.html

[roseBudd]

41. Franklin county had terrible lines in African American precincts

and 68 machines sat in warehouses.

Someone had info for Franklin on serial numbers of machines and that some machines originally slated for urban precincts were actually in the warehouse. Does ayone else remember seeing that post?

[IndyOp]

46. Suppression Franklin County, Ohio

According to Representative John Conyer’s letter to Kenneth Blackwell (12/2), throughout predominately Democratic areas in Ohio on election day, there were reports of long lines caused by inadequate numbers of voting machines. In Franklin County the voting machine allocation report states that 2,741 voting machines were placed “By Close of Polls” on Election Day. The County’s records reveal that they had 2,866 “machines available” on Election Day. At least 125 machines remained unused, even though the Board of Election’s Director Matt Damschroder (former Executive Director of the Franklin County Republican Party) admitted on 11/19 that 77 machines malfunctioned during the day. In some precincts there were fewer voting machines on Election Day than there had been during the spring primary. Additionally, it appears that in a number of locations, polling places were moved from large locations, such as gyms, where voters could comfortably wait inside to vote to smaller locations where voters were required to wait in the rain.

An analysis by Tim Lohrentz estimates that at least 22,000 Franklin County voters were disenfranchised due to the long lines and lack of voting machines, including over 15,000 voters from heavily Democratic (> 60%) precincts. Of the 217 precincts where there were fewer voting machines in 2004 than in 2000, 184 (85%) were Democratic. <http://www.indybay.org/news/2004/12/1708672.php>

I think the article about seeing the list of machines with some marked out was in FreePress -- can't find it at the moment.

:bounce:

[KaliTracy]

59. 1 machine per 200 people means 3 minutes per person in a 10 hr day n/t

[L. Coyote]

34. Changes in Precinct Numbers by Voting Machine Type

I decided to ask the spreadsheet a few questions.

OooohHio Great Swammiiii, please tell me...

		2000	2004	
Counties	Prec.	Prec.	Net Change
E Vote	7	1615	1541	-74
Op-Scan	13	1648	1479	-169
Punch	68	8889	8340	-549
All	88	12152	11360	-792

Punch Counties				
Kerry > 47%	14	4364	4050	-314
Kerry < 47%	54	4525	4290	-235

The greatest changed punch counties:
County	 		Net	% Kerry	  # Votes		% Non-Votes P.
Summit	 		-149	55.49	  275,551		1.926
Cuyahoga 		-69	65.12	  665,334		1.947
Montgomery 		-55	49.41	  279,801		2.024

The greatest change for E-Touch is the E-Touch county with highest Kerry support (Mahoning) and the two highest changed Op-Scan counties are the two with greatest Kerry support and the only two with greater than 50% Kerry support:

					2004	2004
County Name 	2000	2004	Change	Kerry	Votes	% Non-V
Mahoning 	416	312	-104	61.77	131,938	1.169
Lucas 	 	548	495	-53	59.54	216,453	0.764
Erie 	 	101	62	-39	52.03	39,690	2.404

I could add correlation analysis, but this is just too obvious to bother. Is a state-wide pattern of partisan engineering apparent yet? If so, "abuse of power" is hardly the appropriate phrase!

I've added a 30 KB Excel worksheet to the Ohio page with this data. The Ohio spreadsheet is already over 750 Kb!

Who can add 1996 to the sheet?

Does anyone have ballot order stats for the Summit precincts?

[KaliTracy]

36. wow....

thanks for posting this!

[mulethree]

51. 96 numbers

96,97,98,01,02,03 No precinct counts for '99

CSV

"County Name","2003 Precincts","2003 Register","2003 Turnout","2002 Precincts","2002 Register","2002 Votes","2001 Precincts","2001 Register","2001 Votes","1998 Precincts","1998 Register","1998 Votes","1997 precincts","1997 register","1997 votes","1996 precincts","1996 registered","1996 votes"
"Adams",35,15984,7234,35,15446,7243,35,15403,7474,34,16602,8269,34,15889,8135,34,16123,10851
"Allen",141,61255,25742,139,65399,30542,139,64958,19536,171,65638,31801,171,64212,32298,171,60170,44636
"Ashland",65,32291,14348,65,31735,15507,65,31082,10735,73,29225,17040,73,28042,15369,73,28207,20248
"Ashtabula",127,56450,23967,127,58022,28527,127,56288,22228,130,62353,30779,130,60889,29799,130,60249,39894
"Athens",69,37640,13158,69,39813,17012,69,40095,13105,69,42317,17064,69,38022,14722,69,40317,24517
"Auglaize",43,29662,12588,43,29656,14003,43,27795,9828,43,29452,15081,65,29961,13480,65,28827,20048
"Belmont",83,43745,17675,84,42738,21637,85,42066,17971,100,49550,26117,100,48668,22750,100,49758,31460
"Brown",35,26292,10049,55,25415,12136,55,27195,10210,44,25649,12091,43,24491,12159,41,23794,15857
"Butler",289,207675,66169,289,215796,89568,280,206056,70898,278,198649,92728,267,192984,78507,251,187186,124579
"Carroll",26,18975,8258,26,18799,9098,26,18444,8472,38,18718,9542,38,18323,9938,38,17789,11906
"Champaign",34,23285,10485,53,26901,11000,53,27435,7779,50,25015,11855,50,24289,10757,50,23734,15216
"Clark",112,78692,35710,112,82889,39854,112,81412,27806,159,88629,43142,159,86465,36596,160,85828,59123
"Clermont",191,110026,33009,191,117207,44217,191,114890,29988,196,100510,46394,196,96915,37098,196,92396,65221
"Clinton",32,22480,9151,32,23529,10718,32,23321,9927,50,22820,10734,50,22342,9750,50,22067,14806
"Columbiana",103,74499,26798,103,73355,32034,103,72564,26154,138,69991,34128,138,65557,34118,138,65922,44512
"Coshocton",43,20895,11162,43,20623,10710,43,20389,8434,43,21688,11126,43,21257,10734,43,21361,14627
"Crawford",67,27506,11775,67,28992,13608,67,28866,8690,70,30678,14804,70,30004,14493,71,29541,19906
"Cuyahoga",1436,867325,285745,1464,861351,395050,1462,934896,349663,2059,889418,433649,2112,876690,398013,2126,904258,580030
"Darke",43,36571,14762,53,36176,18223,53,35892,10863,53,34038,19600,53,33121,17606,53,32710,23588
"Defiance",46,23758,10183,46,24536,11075,46,25177,10176,47,24576,11890,47,24147,12610,47,23804,16286
"Delaware",123,82538,32920,122,85204,40297,117,80817,22169,102,65342,35737,102,61054,26849,99,57741,42019
"Erie",62,50561,22407,101,51523,25581,101,52319,18245,101,52295,27669,101,50951,25348,101,49371,34331
"Fairfield",117,79536,33198,118,76212,40307,118,73518,29863,116,75123,39721,116,73191,36506,116,70502,51515
"Fayette",38,14072,5011,38,13676,6812,38,14557,5954,40,14643,7396,40,14372,6616,40,14376,9849
"Franklin",789,724851,188174,780,706668,285685,771,687857,157032,735,657232,302526,724,640813,243585,724,628117,407087
"Fulton",35,25950,13534,36,26740,13414,36,26031,9948,36,26748,13724,36,25866,12981,36,26229,18264
"Gallia",35,21215,9070,36,21646,9823,36,21460,8274,36,20038,10349,36,19930,8916,36,19876,12955
"Geauga",96,57403,22459,96,57056,33088,96,55814,28012,92,57600,31591,92,55562,26963,92,54768,39858
"Greene",142,88696,38605,142,93742,44119,142,91292,31163,230,92994,46084,230,91006,41770,230,91149,62924
"Guernsey",37,25271,11193,71,22149,11361,71,24739,11085,71,19883,11819,71,25117,12607,71,24284,15471
"Hamilton",1013,531374,184082,1025,522307,253808,1025,582774,216319,1062,568836,298735,1062,557177,246389,1061,531463,379193
"Hancock",62,45615,16816,62,44611,21137,69,43971,12746,69,43691,22970,69,42187,18072,69,41672,30274
"Hardin",38,17977,8335,38,17764,8675,38,17641,7201,39,18912,9639,39,18757,9148,39,18691,12047
"Harrison",24,11132,6057,24,10858,5965,24,10762,5419,35,10503,6404,35,10075,5978,35,10791,7616
"Henry",33,18316,8406,33,18517,9441,33,18421,8277,33,18499,10391,33,17966,9352,40,17802,13055
"Highland",46,26013,10530,46,25360,11471,46,24897,10243,46,22488,12020,46,22194,12155,46,20629,15017
"Hocking",32,16557,7787,32,16889,7941,32,16515,6681,32,16424,8078,32,15887,8429,32,15538,10593
"Holmes",27,16509,4944,27,16633,6597,27,16607,6141,27,15795,8137,27,14953,7395,26,14821,9852
"Huron",55,35763,14195,69,35102,15730,69,35408,11636,69,33698,16952,69,33197,16077,69,32413,21569
"Jackson",40,23434,9754,40,23431,9486,40,23071,9566,40,21825,9813,40,21443,9871,40,21007,12548
"Jefferson",91,46073,20667,93,52971,24176,93,52691,20644,113,54577,28025,113,54232,26306,113,53820,35591
"Knox",56,31897,12785,53,31630,14716,53,30709,9210,50,31407,15000,46,30611,13029,46,29675,20365
"Lake",217,147301,60248,217,150137,69009,217,148154,57717,188,147062,75025,188,144455,61228,188,142918,98699
"Lawrence",84,42925,16374,84,38622,16254,84,37800,15970,84,42634,19361,84,41415,18001,84,"?","?"
"Licking",122,99119,42203,125,99182,49121,139,95869,38748,145,90660,50356,145,87630,46415,141,85698,59058
"Logan",52,27185,10685,52,28698,13084,52,27826,9500,52,28149,13893,51,27269,12012,51,26670,17478
"Lorain",239,172771,75255,246,166092,81245,246,172764,71096,278,172473,82260,278,169733,72877,278,167564,109298
"Lucas",530,289877,103436,518,278619,135802,548,270812,115461,549,284423,135897,547,280020,139251,547,275474,183211
"Madison",44,20366,9470,44,23288,10982,44,23107,7412,44,20887,10763,44,20121,9198,43,19423,13671
"Mahoning",312,181121,61742,312,180303,90065,312,177579,66577,416,175256,89004,416,173404,91512,406,171659,122308
"Marion",84,40612,16862,84,39581,17913,90,41450,13668,90,39395,19405,90,38987,16682,90,37806,25211
"Medina",149,103915,41636,145,100371,48488,148,100278,32611,150,90372,47450,150,86822,42339,149,84112,60082
"Meigs",27,14001,6373,27,14685,7348,27,14402,5798,27,16049,7769,28,15602,7974,28,15296,9786
"Mercer",39,30040,11932,40,26848,15756,40,26724,10331,45,23746,13753,45,25812,13298,45,25073,18264
"Miami",82,64203,26020,82,66285,30519,82,64925,19888,79,57726,31939,79,58044,25875,73,56735,40894
"Monroe",29,9891,6335,29,9866,5424,29,10064,5136,29,10763,6214,29,10590,6392,29,10498,7198
"Montgomery",593,342811,117269,593,334787,167466,639,324333,101622,643,361365,170903,643,359593,141657,643,357252,236771
"Morgan",22,8762,4799,22,8600,4905,22,8555,4190,24,9273,5078,24,9153,5294,24,9149,6180
"Morrow",36,21669,10036,36,21310,9987,36,21231,8190,36,19602,9810,36,19083,9415,35,19028,12526
"Muskingum",85,46185,22340,85,48175,23540,85,46721,19453,85,51551,25958,86,51362,23556,86,50114,33844
"Noble",27,8500,5234,27,8173,4579,27,7964,4807,27,8336,4998,27,8200,5011,27,7873,5696
"Ottawa",78,27850,13130,78,26933,15350,78,28676,14262,78,27965,15218,78,27364,13749,78,26977,19247
"Paulding",30,13685,6304,30,13374,6447,30,14259,5490,33,13354,6651,33,12999,6507,33,12669,8854
"Perry",46,21249,8011,46,20812,9512,46,20930,6868,44,19912,10274,44,19938,10310,44,19656,12753
"Pickaway",53,25811,10345,53,27505,12373,53,26790,9241,52,28486,13874,52,27904,13305,52,27292,17765
"Pike",24,18403,7710,24,20220,8195,24,20027,7139,24,19089,8921,24,18869,0,24,18248,11252
"Portage",129,97330,34761,129,94711,42722,122,92700,34021,165,93071,43442,165,90703,41621,165,88129,59303
"Preble",46,26685,9159,46,28108,11967,46,27956,10527,46,26368,13225,46,24650,12978,46,25185,17545
"Putnam",35,23492,11476,51,24360,13009,51,24080,10028,51,22601,13271,51,22186,12498,51,21976,16593
"Richland",126,84655,35894,133,83133,39057,134,81861,29533,128,79701,41206,127,77674,38088,127,75686,52477
"Ross",76,38859,18119,76,37478,19090,76,36478,15164,77,38746,20689,77,37666,19920,77,37953,26290
"Sandusky",72,35734,14180,73,39769,19427,73,39584,13487,90,38797,19825,90,37723,19472,90,37002,25955
"Scioto",106,41893,17004,107,44061,22827,107,43096,20827,118,49711,24077,118,49393,25278,118,47174,32224
"Seneca",54,34780,14617,73,35713,17261,73,35876,12722,73,35543,19358,73,34540,18132,84,34189,24213
"Shelby",45,27540,10812,45,29774,15480,45,29612,9664,67,27513,14759,67,26792,13545,67,26675,18843
"Stark",364,244810,95589,364,246562,118162,364,242550,94308,378,241421,127644,378,238337,110981,378,234909,161581
"Summit",475,342040,137118,507,334515,166854,507,326903,129874,629,343043,165940,629,334633,152138,631,328283,222072
"Trumbull",274,127031,58210,274,132957,74759,284,130377,54831,284,145357,73416,285,142646,74539,285,129329,96941
"Tuscarawas",81,51633,25682,81,53907,26248,80,52698,20984,121,56323,28563,121,53401,26921,121,53643,36005
"Union",48,26459,10675,47,25880,12597,47,24598,8900,47,22997,12930,46,18094,10374,46,20413,15241
"Van Wert",39,20071,9930,39,19525,9435,39,19241,9707,41,20569,9597,41,21276,9567,41,19848,13311
"Vinton",20,7685,3425,20,7770,4145,20,7522,3623,23,8252,3992,23,7996,4964,23,7860,5078
"Warren",157,105040,31677,148,101207,50813,148,100029,31981,134,86276,46528,134,80785,35415,129,78393,56669
"Washington",56,38448,17989,81,37705,19140,81,36586,17747,77,39188,21232,77,37963,20777,77,36265,26367
"Wayne",97,61686,27379,97,60048,31391,100,58157,24381,100,61201,31734,100,59296,28378,100,57513,41403
"Williams",44,25263,8447,44,24670,11578,44,26840,11809,44,25274,11376,44,25112,10384,44,24340,15902
"Wood",105,78334,28266,104,75660,39061,104,74464,28113,105,77451,39048,104,75832,34958,131,73447,50242
"Wyandot",24,15014,6427,40,14780,6506,40,15253,5744,40,14423,7542,40,13955,7031,40,13838,9868

[L. Coyote]

56. Your numbers added to spreadsheet linked in post #34, thanks n/t

[mod mom]

38. article said # Precincts down due efficiency in machines

after HAVA passed and OH SOS Blackhole received 1.3 million $(sorry folks I read this just after election so forgive my memory-I believe it was in a Phoenix paper)to purchase new machines, (money supposedly still in bank-although I wonder whose account)the OH BOE decided the efficiency of new voting technology would allow for fewer precincts needed.

[KaliTracy]

43. IMO that was just a cover -- an excuse.

2000 had more mergings -- but they knew that they would need a reason why they didn't follow through with the machines after they merged more counties -- (Laudable that they wanted more "trustworthy" machines...) (And some of the mergings have been gradual from 2000 to 2004 if I remember the above post correctly...)

I know for a fact that at least my mom's precinct in Lucas county "piloted" the machines during the primary. Any way to get information on how many others did so?

[mulethree]

57. Some numbers

Blackwell was ready to jump into e-voting with $106 Million in contracts. The Legislature stopped him because the federal standards weren't ready, there was no voter verified paper trail and there were 50+ unaddressed security questions/holes.

They expect $130 Million in HAVA funds overall. But it's not all for voting machines. A lot is for studies, voter registration systems, provisional ballot initiatives etc.

I can't figure out how a voting machine is more efficient than an optical scan ballot. 10 cents to print ballot and provide a little pencil. Built in paper trail, easy to verify, easy to hand count, familiar to anyone under age 50 who has taken standardized school tests. Can't break down, easy to move around, store, secure. One scanner can handle 30,000+ ballots and more choices and expertise available since this type of scanner is used for school testing.

[KaliTracy]

58. .RE Optiscan.".since this type of scanner is used for school testing...."

LOTS of problems with test scoring mistakes -- even tests that teachers took for certification were flawed and teachers were denied certification.

Giant Test Firm Botches Exams and Changes Lives
http://www.susanohanian.org/outrage_fetch.php?id=261

<snip>"...But Mitchell had a problem: The giant testing firm, Educational Testing Services, told Mitchell throughout the school year that he repeatedly flunked the "Praxis II" teacher licensure exam that he had to pass to keep his job. At the end of the school year, the Mad River school district officials terminated Mitchell, making clear that while they liked his performance in the classroom, they couldn't keep him without the licensing credential. After learning that his score would count as a passing score in Tennessee, Rob and Cathy had a heart-to-heart talk, and with great reluctance, sold their Springboro home and moved the 350 miles to Spring Hill, Tenn., where Cathy transferred to a GM plant.

Within days of moving to Tennessee, Rob received notice from that the testing company had made a "scoring error" on many of the half-dozen Praxis II tests he had taken the previous 18 months — he actually scored higher than the firm had previous calculated. He had passed that licensing exam after all — more than a year ago. In fact, he had passed twice. "<snip>


THE "PARENTS DON'T NEED TO KNOW WHAT THEIR KIDS ARE TESTED ON"
AWARD TO:
JEB BUSH
http://www.susanohanian.org/outrage_fetch.php?id=106

"Some Florida parents decided it was not enough to be able to see their kids' scores on the FCAT--the test Florida uses to evaluate schools. They wanted to see the tests, too. "We feel strongly that any test used to make life-altering decisions about children should be subject to scrutiny," said Gloria Pipkin, parent and founder of the Florida Coalition for Assessment Reform. Pipkin said such scrutiny is important because test-scoring companies make mistakes. She pointed to Minnesota where 8000 students were told they had failed that state's test when, in fact, they had passed--National Computer Systems (NCS) had used a faulty scoring key (Martin Swaden, the Minnesota parent--and lawyer--whose threat of a lawsuit finally persuaded Minnesota to let him see his child's test wherein he found the scoring mistakes, received "The Concerned Dad Doggedness Golden Apple Award" in the 13th Bracey Report on the Condition of Public Education, Phi Delta Kappan, October, 2003. NCS should probably get something like the Ivan Boesky 'Greed is Good' Rotten Apple for its shoddy work).

Petitioning parents also wanted to know where their kids might have gone wrong in order to help them. Tough, said governor Jeb. "If you had to every year recast the test and redo the questions rather than rotate them, as is done now, it'd be millions of dollars." Governor Jeb did not explain how New York and Massachusetts manage to afford to release their tests each year."

Errors in Standardized Tests: A Systemic Problem
http://www.susanohanian.org/show_research.html?id=51

"In 1999, we began a systematic search for examples of testing errors. Over this three-year
search, we found dozens of errors that were discovered by school officials, teachers, parents, and even students. Testing companies had not discovered most of them. Summaries of errors not discovered by testing contractors are contained in Appendix A. We describe below errors associated with three major publishers: CTB McGraw Hill, National Computer Systems, and
Harcourt Brace. . . . " (actual report here...http://www.bc.edu/research/nbetpp/statements/M1N4.pdf)

[KaliTracy]

44. can anyone get precinct info for Warren County?

Including Mason,and other neighborhoods?

[k8conant]

50. It's on this site:

http://www.co.warren.oh.us/bdelec/search/votingresults/canvass_results_publish.asp

[roseBudd]

54. Warren has 157 precincts n/t

[L. Coyote]

52. kick n/t

[skids]

53. One possible "explanation"...

Would be that the downward adjustments in precincts were due to an ongoing problem of finding volunteers/poll workers. They could have looked to consolidatein order to reduce their staff requirements.

Not that that makes it, and the resulting disenfranchisement acceptible.

[KaliTracy]

55. if that were the Case, then wouldn't you think that officials

getting the big bucks for overseeing all of this would have made sure that it was a smooth transistion? After all, they have the authority, the power, and the ability to make the decisions. That's what we pay them for.

So... while it may be something they use as an excuse, I personally don't buy it. Especially given that it's been on a quick trip downward since 2000.

[anaxarchos]

62. They don't really try to hide it...

Because Republican voter suppression is on such a wide scale, there are not even a lot of code words that can be used.

Take a look at Freeman's "Hypotheses for Explaining the Exit Poll-Official Count Discrepancy in the 2004 US Presidential Election" ( the 3 .pdfs marked pages 1-13, etc.) at this link (much of it is about Ohio):

http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep.htm

You can also read about the front end of this (voter registration) on a post I did for another thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=215658&mesg_id=220607


It is amazing how much of this (vote suppression) is openly discussed and even "accepted".

[L. Coyote]

63. Precinct changes need to be analyzed with respect to ballot orders ....

The punch card precinct changes should be examined with espect to how many ballot order combinations were at the new locations, did they have 1.0 probability of switching major candidate votes of cross-voters, what their demographic proportions are, what candidate support levels they have, how many ballot orders at the locations, how many precincts at the locations, how many more than ballot orders, how the allocation changes in a county impacts cross-vote probability generally, and more.

Read How Kerry Votes were Switched to Bush Votes to get some ideas of the implications of multiple ballot orders at locations and the vote-switch probability differences of their possible combinations.

The question that really lurks in the background is "Were the changes designed to favor partisan interests?" in ways far mor complex than simple voter suppression.

[anaxarchos]

64. Now there is a real "conspiracy" question.

I like it.

One easy way to find out would be to look at the process in Ohio. The literature says ballot order MUST be determined by random lottery to preserve the integrity of the process. If Ohio used the same procedure to assure random ballot order as they used to pick precincts in the recount, then you've got something.

[goodboy]

61. I betcha Andy would really be interested in this...you should ask him

to tell you about warren county...

[luaptifer]

65. Files and data available on Blackwell's OHIO SOS website

listed and linked here, may be of use

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=223272#223377