OHIO HAS 11,360 PRECINCTS

[stella2cat]

There are 11,360 precincts in Ohio
A mere 11 vote mistake/cheat/provisional ballot disqualified/etc per precinct = 124,960 votes

The 10 counties with the most precincts:
Cuyahoga 1436
Hamilton 1013
Franklin 788
Montgomery 588
Lucas 495
Summit 475
Stark 364
Mahoning 312

Total for these counties = 5471 precincts
All these counties except Hamilton went to Kerry
A mere 22 vote mistake/cheat/provisional ballot disqualified/etc per precinct = 120,362 votes

So let’s see, if:
5 extra votes were given to * through a COMPUTER GLITCH
5 Kerry provisional ballots were thrown out
5 Kerry voters couldn’t stand in line for 4+ hours
5 Kerry voters were at the wrong precinct
2 Kerry votes were called under/over or miscounted

It's really easy to come up with the 22
It didn’t have to be terribly sophisticated or involve large numbers of vote switches, just a few in the right places.

If Blackwell hadn’t ILLEGALLY locked down all the precinct records, we could find those 11
or 22 votes!
A paper receipt or recount doesn’t help us, only a full AUDIT at the precinct level reveals these discrepancies

[liberal N proud]

1. And now he wants to be gov.

[aquart]

3. And I'm sure he'll get the votes.

Aren't you?

At least we know what he sold us out for.

Hope the bastard hangs.

[roenyc]

33. He expects the payoff

katerine got hers! its his turn. and well with those voting machines its in the bag!

[Darkhawk32]

2. I've always said that they didn't need to pile fraud votes all in one ...

place. A little here, a little there, mix in some suppression and PRESTO, you win.

[L. Coyote]

4. Don't forget the cross-vote multipliers, AND the add one and subtract one.

In the punch card counties, with certain ballot combinations and a high level of Kerry support in the precinct, cross-voting could switch 3 times as many Kerry votes to Bush votes. In the cross-vote scenario where a Kerry vote is switched to Bush, for each cross-vote you have to both add ONE to Bush and subtract ONE from Kerry. Each cross-vote changes two candidates, in effect.

Check this thread (mine) for a long-winded explanation.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=196518&mesg_id=196518

Anyway, when hunting for switched votes, you only need to find half as many!!!

[stella2cat]

5. yep, and I remember reading your post

it's so critical to get our hands on precinct-level data.
gee, ya think that's why they're so hell-bent on NOT releasing it?
There are folks on the ground in Ohio working on this kind of data, but I don't know how much they can get their hands on.

[Nederland]

6. Big Conspiracy's Fail

How many people would it take to commit fraud in 11,360 precincts? And don't give me this bullshit about rigging the machines because Ohio uses a wide variety of machines to record and count votes. A conspiracy to commit fraud on this scale would be either doomed to fail or be revealed after the fact by at least one loud mouthed person on the inside.

[KaliTracy]

7. combination of little factors

disenfranchisement/voter suppression
provisional ballot rules *
"paper weight" for absentee ballots (though recinded, some people still believed this was in place *
a vote here, a vote there

* (rules made less than 90 days before the election)

hmmmmm

[Nederland]

8. 11,360 is not "little"

Yes, we have evidence of disenfranchisement, voter suppression, rejection of some provisional ballots, and problems with absentee ballots. That evidence, however, exists in specific precincts. There is absolutely no evidence that any of these things happened in every precinct in Ohio as the original poster suggests.

[BarbinMD]

10. So are you saying that...

...it didn't happen? I thought the point was that we just don't know. So count the votes, audit the machines, etc., and find out. I'd like to see every Democratic talking head, etc., to blanket the airwaves with one simple question. Why doesn't Blackwell want the votes counted? No veering off into what if's or maybe's...just keep asking, if the election was above board, what is he afraid of. Over and over and over...

[Nederland]

13. No

I'm saying that this theory (where small frauds occurred in a vast number of places) is fundamentally flawed.

[BarbinMD]

16. Okay...

...then let me ask you this. Do you think that there should be a recount in Ohio, as prescribed by law? And do you think that all records, etc., should be released so a complete audit can be done?

[Nederland]

17. Absolutely (nt)

[stella2cat]

18. NO, I am not saying FRAUD happened in 11,000 precincts

if you'll notice I used 'mistake' as the first option. And also included supression and disenfranchisement issues

I don't think there was an orchestrated fraud throughout 11,360 precincts, but the 5s and 10s and 20s add up quickly

[Nederland]

19. Fair Enough

But aren't you suggesting that fraud occurred in 5471 precincts?

[stella2cat]

21. no, it didn't have to be fraud

could have been long lines, rejected provisional ballots (they seem to have rejected more in democratic precincts), folks voting at the wrong precinct, or just plain old counting errors

[Nederland]

23. Where?

In 5471 precincts? That's what the original post suggests...

[Qutzupalotl]

11. Funny, that was Blackwell's argument

almost verbatim.

Both he and you conveniently ignore the fact that fraud can be accomplished via the central tabulators, without involving thousands of people.

[Nederland]

12. Not really

Not every precinct in Ohio uses the same tabulators.

[KittyWampus]

14. Why Don't You Back Up Your Usual Noise With Actual Figures Then?

You've just been handed a valid statement of fact (It wouldn't have to be all 11,000 of them cause of central tabulators) and then come back with vague bs.

Furthermore, if the voting machines, which are all built by GOP-loving and donating companies, have Bush votes as default and/or other stuff favoring Bush built into the code... it wouldn't require very many people knowing at all.

But then if you REALLY cared and paid attention you'd know this cause it's been pointed out to you before.

[Nederland]

15. Misunderstood

I never said that fraud didn't happen. What I took issue with was the original notion that small fraud happened in thousands of places.

Clear enough?

If you want to present evidence of Triad tabulators producing results that didn't match hand counts I'll be happy to look at it.

[Qutzupalotl]

20. To look at it, then try to discredit it,

right?

[Nederland]

22. No

I was actually pointing out that there is no hard evidence of manipulation by central tabulators. Yes, there was an event involving a Traid employee, but that event was investigated and produced no evidence of tampering. Unless you have something new...

In which case I will look at it and reserve judgement until seeing it.

[Chimpanzee]

28. No one has been allowed to look for the evidence yet, sherlock!

[KerryOn]

9. Nice set of figures

... that was good word on your part.

It shows how outright fraud does not need to take place. Just a few intentional mistakes could be made to look like an accident. That way if they get caught, no one goes to jail.

We Democrats have got to start thinking like re-pugs if we ever want to win.

[Bill Bored]

24. kick

I had reached a similar conclusion without knowing the exact number of precincts. Thanks for posting it. And BTW, if you swapped votes FROM Kerry---->TO--->Bush, you'd only need half the number per precinct!

[Brundle_Fly]

25. how many precincts in total for the US?

nt

[Bill Bored]

26. Good Question

We could multiply Ohio by 50 and get a rough idea. If there are 500,000 precincts, you'd only have to swing 3 votes per precinct to have a 3,000,000-vote margin, right?

[Brundle_Fly]

29. sorta

I was looking for

(x)=precincts x 10 (flipped votes) x 80% (w/machines) = 3.5 million.

just day dreaming, but that would be the way to do it, and the most simple way to avoid any large obvious fraud

[Chimpanzee]

27. Just the long lines alone probably made up that difference

[Andy_Stephenson]

30. I am sure I am finding those votes.

More on this later. Wait till Monday.

[stella2cat]

31. I know you are too, and I wish

I could be there helping you! :hi:

[luaptifer]

32. stella2cat

did you receive my PM?

sorry to ask a stupid ? on the open forum but i've not used that feature much and having received no responses the times i have, i don't know if it's one of those features for which you've 'gotta subscribe' or some other restriction applies.

tia

[stella2cat]

34. yes, and I sent you something back. thank you n/t

[luaptifer]

35. thanks, it appears that my PM does work!

see your inbox :-)

[Bill Bored]

36. kick for 2005!

A recent Yale Study showed that with a single statewide system centralized manipulation is facilitated and can swing elections with one or two vote switches per machine. The study and some commentary are both online. I haven't read them yet, but this is where I got the idea, and then I saw this thread, Blackwell's refusal to hand count the votes in Ohio, etc.

Commentary on Yale Study:
<http://www.wheresthepaper.org/CACM_YaleStudy.htm>

Yale Study:
<http://www.wheresthepaper.org/p43_di_franco.pdf>