12/28: New report on NATIONAL exit polls and POPULAR VOTE

[garybeck]

I know this has been mentioned but someone suggested I start a new thread with this at the top. This is a very good and important analysis.

The 2004 Presidential Election: Who Won The Popular Vote?
An Examination of the Comparative Validity of
Exit Poll and Vote Count Data

December 28, 2004

Jonathan D. Simon, J.D.
Verified Vote 2004
[e-mail]

Ron P. Baiman, Ph.D.
Institute of Government and Public Affairs
University of Illinois at Chicago
[e-mail]

http://freepress.org/images/departments/PopularVotePaper181_1.pdf

[euler]

1. Saw this 2 or 3 days ago. TIA posted it, I think.

[BrklynLiberal]

2. We were robbed!! We know it. They know it. But there seems to be no way

to prove it in a court of law...especially since they own all the judges..all the way up to the Supreme Court of the US

[New Earth]

3. they can own all the public officials they want

but they will never own the American people :evilgrin:

[flpoljunkie]

4. It refutes the too many females theory as well as reluctant * responders

We examine the two least implausible hypotheses that have been put forward. The first deals with the proportion of respondents by gender. The composition of the national sample by gender was 46% male, 54% female, which prompted a claim that females were over-represented, skewing the results towards Kerry. While it is not proven that this is in fact the case, if it is taken as stipulated and the sample is reweighted to reflect a “normal” gender breakdown of 52% female, 48% male, the effect is to increase Bush’s exit poll percentage by 0.2% to 48.4% and decrease Kerry’s to 50.6%. The effect on the bottom line is minimal: Kerry would be the popular vote victor 96.9% of the time.

The second hypothesis put forward is the “reluctant Bush responder” hypothesis. It suggests that Bush voters were for some reason less willing to fill out an exit poll questionnaire, and therefore were undercounted in the poll results. If such a phenomenon could be proven, it would be a source of significant skewing and effectively invalidate the polls. The proponents of this hypothesis, however, have yet to offer any supportive evidence for their theory.

[RaulVB]

5. I hope Kerry saw this (n/t)

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. ..

[troubleinwinter]

7. I'd like to see a copy of this

in the hands of EVERY senator and member of congress.

[ginnyinWI]

9. it would only matter to those who cared about justice

rather than party loyalty or maintaining the status quo. Only matter to those who believe, truly, in democracy.

[NE1469]

8. Kick!