THROWING OUT THE ROTTEN HALF OF THE XMAS TREE (DEAD WOOD)

[TruthIsAll]

Nov 3, 2004 12:22AM:
Simon/SCOOP exit poll downloads from the NET	
(CNN thought no one was watching)

47 state exit polls
16 beyond the MARGIN OF ERROR - all for Bush

Probability (P) of any given state vote exceeding the 
Exit Poll MOE for Bush: 
             P = 2.50% (1 out of 40) 

Probability of at least 16 states: 
****** IMAGINE WINNING THE POWERBALL TWICE IN A ROW *******

Red Shift probabilities for various number of states
N = Number of states exceeding the MOE for Bush

N	Prob >=N   The Rotten Odds:1 Out of
2	3.29E-01	3
3	1.13E-01	9
4	2.97E-02	34
5	6.26E-03	160
6	1.09E-03	919
7	1.60E-04	6,269
8	2.01E-05	49,817
9	2.20E-06	455,005
10	2.12E-07	4,726,008
11	1.81E-08	55,342,090
12	1.38E-09	725,475,161
13	9.45E-11	10,584,016,637
14	5.85E-12	170,992,468,197
15	3.29E-13	3,040,918,046,840
16	1.75E-14	57,007,590,219,880 < it actually happened
17	0.00E+00	#DIV/0! < dead wood, rotten at the root.


For those unfamiliar with scientific notation:

N	Probability	>= N   The Rotten Odds:1 Out of
2	0.3291108287246540	3
3	0.1128820886684090	9
4	0.0297171886467755	34
5	0.0062604219740072	160
6	0.0010879041948839	919
7	0.0001595035678618	6,269
8	0.0000200734370636	49,817
9	0.0000021977792689	455,005
10	0.0000002115950695	4,726,008
11	0.0000000180694295	55,342,090
12	0.0000000013784069	725,475,161
13	0.0000000000944821	10,584,016,637
14	0.0000000000058482	170,992,468,197
15	0.0000000000003288	3,040,918,046,840
16	0.0000000000000175	57,007,590,219,880
17	0.0000000000000000	#DIV/0!

[salin]

1. Welcome Back!

:hi: you were missed!

[Junkdrawer]

3. Ditto that...

:hi:

[MikeG]

2. Did you see Jesus while you were out?

[Webster Green]

4. Whew!

Nice to see this post!

[IndyPriest]

5. Man, are you a sight for sore eyes!

If you ever need help posting bail again, lemme know!

[Goldeneye]

6. Glad your back.

[s-cubed]

7. TIA, you'll never let us forget,

will you?:)

[merh]

8. So glad to see you back - I so missed your numbers!

Take care and keep crunching! (Don't let the bastards get ya down!) :thumbsup:

[Wiley50]

9. We thought you was a goner! Welcome Back! n/t

[EFerrari]

10. English! I'm bilingual but can't interpret :(

[livvy]

11. Welcome back! n/t

[Old and In the Way]

18. The chances of the actual results in 16 of 16 elections going

outside the margin of error and for Bush, is about the same as me pitching in the 7th game of the World Series next November.

edit: sorry, meant for post# 10...

[sandnsea]

12. He Lives!!!

Your numbers annoy the living shit out of me, but glad you're back anyway!

:hi:

[musette_sf]

13. (breathes sigh of relief)

welcome back!!

[bleever]

14. Phew. Back to business.

And promise you'll be sticking around.

And it is shaped like a Christmas tree! Very cool.

Why, I was just reading that "The American logician and philospher Charles Peirce was much interested in the visual analogue of poetic onomatopoeia. Among his unpublished papers is a copy of Poe's The Raven, written with a technique that Peirce called 'art chirography,' the words formed so as to convey a visual impression of the poem's ideas."

So you're in good company, as usual.

:toast:

[madison2000]

15. happy to see the truth is back with us!!!

16 1.75E-14 57,007,590,219,880 < it actually happened
mandate my ASS!!!!

[k8conant]

16. Nice! TruthIsAll and TruthIsBack!!

:hi: :hi: :kick:

[New Earth]

17. yayyy

:hi:

[Viva_La_Revolution]

19. Truth!! Glad to have you back.....

We have missed all the Reports! (that most of us can't follow anyway:crazy: ) WE WUZ LONELY!

[me b zola]

20. Has anyone mentioned that you were missed?

I am Ssooooo glad that you are back!

:hi: :toast: :beer: :headbang:

[senseandsensibility]

21. Great to read your

posts again! Welcome back!:toast:

[stellanoir]

22. There is a god

Truth is resurrected !!!!

[Nite Owl]

23. Good to see you back

[FogerRox]

24. Smile---SO TIA you say that the odds were slim that Bush WON--LOL

My Mission: TARGET CBS

Join the protest @ CBS in NYC If enough Peeps show @ CBS I will extend the efforts to other outlets, Like ABC & NBC.

Power to the People ! !! ! ! RIght On Brother KIP ! !! !

http://www.51capitalmarch.com /
[e-mail] /

[babylonsister]

25. Yeah! Welcome back!

I'm a lurking fan, but you are so appreciated!:thumbsup:

[SnoopDog]

26. Glad to see you back! Be cool...and crunch numbers...!

[maryallen]

27. Wouldn't be the same without you ...

Welcome back!

[dogindia]

28. tia, tia, tia

t
ti
tia
tiaw
tiawe
tiawel
tiawelc
tiawelco
tiawelcom
tiawelcome

back!

yaaaaahhhhhaaaa

[keepthemhonest]

35. See I told you he

would be back. ahhhhhhhhhh

[Tweed]

29. T&A is back?

Oh great :eyes:

[Pithy Cherub]

30. Truth, Justice & The American Way! And the Truth shall set You Free!

TIA :yourock:

[babylonsister]

36. You are...

Pithy! :hi: I like to think I am also.

[Pithy Cherub]

37. May the Force be with Us!

:hi:

[bear425]

31. Thank God for people like you. Thank you for sharing your

gift of mathematical/statistical ability with us and the world. Keep it up!

[Cheswick2.0]

32. Welcome Back TIA....... some people just need to be put on ignore

They aren't worth getting banned for.

[meganmonkey]

33. Glad to see you back TIA!!!

:hi:

[SueZhope]

34. great to see you tonight!!!

I had a good feeling all would be back to normal here at DU
I appreciate all you have been doing and missed you!!
:hi: :thumbsup:

[Crunchy Frog]

38. I'm very glad to see you back here.

Please don't leave us again.:cry: