comparing exit polls to actual precinct results

[breadbox]

Does anyone
(TIA? welcome back, by the way!!! anyone else)
know whether the NEP has published a list of the precincts
that they polled? If so, has anyone compared the exit polls
against the cululative vote in those precincts? This could eliminate/validate the suggestion that the choice of precincts
caused the systemic difference between K and * in the (pre-massaged)
exit polls compared to the state-wide results (which nobody denies,
not even repu*s).

I find the exit poll versus reported votes discepancy compelling,
but I understand that others do not: if we can eliminate as many
putative causes for it as possible we can do our cause a great
favor.

On the flip side, if we could identify those precincts which
differed most from the exit polls in those precincts, then
we could possibly find the fraud --- since we are unlikely to
get access to the precinct exit poll data before March, we would
have to make some possibly unwarranted assumptions --- however,
such unwarranted assumptions can still help lead us to anomolies:
the assumptions may be useless as a persuasive tool, but still
extremely useful as a forensic tool!

Again, welcome back, TIA --- I was distressed, as a low count
newbie, to discover that you had been non-personed, and am
relieved that there is some level of thoughtful review here.

Breadbox

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[breadbox]

2. of course, exit polls have problems. all polls do

I understand this. However, one of the biggest and
most attackable flaws of exit polls is that the pollsters
don't poll *all* precincts, only some of them.

They go to great lengths to try to poll accurately throughout
the day (yes, there are problems when they phone in results,
etc etc etc, but the pollsters really try to address this issue).
Similarly, with number of females versus males and other obviously
identifiable groups; if NEP would release their data the question
I am asking would become a lot easier to answer.

The question I am asking, though, is the following: if one
of the biggest potential flaws of exit polling is in the choice
of precincts to poll (whether this is true or not, grant me this
as an argument for now!) can we compare the "votes" with the exit
polls for just those precincts?

If the exit polls differ greatly from the precinct votes, this
is different, and perhaps more information than that the exit polls
(for precincts) differed from state votes.

The results of such an analysis are not going to prove that there
was fraud or that there was a systemic bias in the exit polls: it
might help eliminate one of the most obvious possible sources of
systemic bias, the choice of precincts.

Breadbox.

[shance]

3. Exit polls should not be compared to "all" polls, not a valid comparison

They are the most accurate way to track incoming results and voting trends overall.

Essentially, they are a protective shield against any vast discrepencies in ballot results that could appear. That is why exit poll data is so important.

The exit polls have been titled the "the canary in the coal mine", so to speak.

[fasttense]

8. Only in America exit polls are flawed

See the media conglomerate that paid for the exit poll only did it for fun. See in America we can't pick precincts to accurately reflect the American population, or even sample the right people. We just can't figure it out. They figured it out in numerous other countries, but in America they only did it for fun. It didn't mean anything.

[Skittles]

4. an axe to grind?

trying to prevent republicans from stealing elecitons is not an axe to grind

[DoYouEverWonder]

5. In Alachua County the only precinct they polled

was in Jonesville.

Alachua County is a Democratic stronghold but they picked one of the most conservative precincts in the county. My SOE said this is the same one they used last time and she didn't know why like that one so much. Maybe because it will skew the numbers in the REP direction? All I know is that if Kerry did well in Jonesville, he had to have won FL in a landslide.

[berniew1]

6. How does one find out which precincts they used? which in Florida?

Was any exit poll data published by precinct?

Why are exit polls used to assess fairness of elections in other countries by the U.S. Government, but not allowed to be used in the U.S. for the same purpose? That is hypocritical and ridiculous.

[DoYouEverWonder]

7. I got the info

from my Supervisor of Elections.

The only way I can figure to find out about the other counties would be for the Exit Poll folks to release the data or to call every county and ask.

I tried posting a thread here on DU asking people if they were exit polled and what precinct they lived in, but I didn't get very many responses.

[breadbox]

9. it really would be nice to know this info

Perhaps we could get at least *this* info from NEP: surely
*this* is not proprietary!
If we could know which precincts were polled (and perhaps the
raw numbers in terms of *just* the number of respondents per
precinct, not the answers that they gave) we could do some
serious analysis....

What's the betting we can't get it?