Why We Must Question Our Elections (by a truthout statistician)

[WilliamPitt]

http://www.truthout.org/docs_05/011805Y.shtml

Why We Must Question Our Elections
By Arlene S. Ash, Ph.D.
t r u t h o u t | Perspective

Monday 17 January 2005

I am a statistician. When I testified about electoral tampering in Martin County, Florida, in November 2000, I focused exclusively on the fact that the number of disputed ballots would have changed the outcome. That was shortsighted. As U.S. newspapers have written about the Ukraine, an election's outcome may be less important than how it was conducted. Democratic elections must be verifiably fair.

Before November 2, several U.S. newspapers pursued concerns about election integrity. They reported on the vulnerability of electronic voting to simple errors and malicious hacking, and the unnecessary dangers posed by non-verifiable touch-screen voting. They exposed obstructionist maneuvers, such as Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell's telling election commissioners to reject voter registrations submitted on thin paper.

Post-election, though, the mainstream media has largely ignored or ridiculed concerns about U.S. electoral errors and fraud.

For example, a front page article by Tom Zeller, Jr. in November 12's New York Times told us that the "elections department in Cleveland set off a round of Web-blog hysteria when it posted turnout figures on its site that seemed to show more votes being cast in some communities than there were registered voters." But, the figures did show over 93,000 more votes than voters. Why is it hysterical to be disturbed by this?

On the evening of November 2, Election Day ("exit") poll data showed comfortable margins for Kerry. These figures disappeared shortly after midnight, replaced by numbers very close to the final tallies. In Ohio, for example, as late as midnight the Bush/Kerry split was 47.9%/52.1%. Later, it was 50.9%/48.6%. The official vote tally is 51.0/48.5. The press has published speculation about how the early numbers might have come to be wrong, yet, two months after the election, there is still no convincing explanation of the discrepancy.

...more...

[The Straight Story]

1. As I have said before

Let's get congress to use diebold with no printout to vote with on legislation. Push a button and a simple tally appears, no way to verify the senator's or house member's vote.

See how fast they tell us it is a bad idea...

[loudsue]

7. Now THAT is a great idea!!

If that doesn't bring the message home, nothing will!

:kick:

[TruthIsAll]

11. STATE EXIT POLL ANALYSIS: 20 STATES TO BUSH BEYOND THE MOE.

I have updated the analysis to include the current vote
totals, as requested by another DUer. I had used the
preliminary results as of Nov 3, disregarding any changes to
the totals.

The final voting numbers make the results even more
improbable, if that is possible.

I do request any enterprising DUer to check my numbers.
Remember, if you do, that the numbers have been converted to
their 2-party equivalents and add to 100%.

In the original analysis: 
1) 16 states deviated beyond the MOE to Bush.
The latest numbers now show that in fact TWENTY (20) did. 

2) 41 states deviated to Bush, regardless of MOE. 
The latest numbers show that FORTY-THREE (43) did (including
DC). 

Kerry's exit poll and vote percentages are based on the
exit poll numbers downloaded by Simon at 12:22 AM Nov 3. 

The numbers have been converted to two-party percentages
so as to total 100%. The purpose was to maintain
comparability to other pre-election projection models. The
adjustments are proportional to the exit poll and vote
percentages. The post-adjusted numbers are in proportion to
the original numbers. There is NO BIAS for Kerry or Bush.

For example: 
Assume Bush won the state vote 50%-49% with 1% going to third
parties. 
Bush's adjusted two-party percentage is 50/99 = 50.505%
Kerry's two-party percentage is 49/99 = 49.495%

These are the relevant statistics from the table:
N = exit poll sample size
Poll = Kerry's exit poll percentage
Vote = Kerry's vote percentage
Diff = Kerry deviation from exit poll to vote

MOE = Margin of error = 1/sqrt(N)
StDev = standard deviation = MOE /1.96 (95% confidence level)

Prob = Probability of vote deviation based on Diff and StDev
Prob is calculated for each state using the Excel Function:
Prob = 1-Normdist(Poll, Vote, StdDev, true)
Odds = odds of occurrence = 1 in (1/Prob)

Analysis Summary
----------------
Bush vote tallies exceeded the exit poll MOE in 20 states.
The probability of this occurence is given by the Excel
formula:
Prob = 1- BINOMDIST(19,51,.025,TRUE)

The odds of this occurring due to chance for 16 states is 1
in 13.5
trillion. 

For 20 states, it is beyond the capacity of Excel to display
the result - it's 30 zeros to the RIGHT of the decimal point.

****** The probability is  VIRTUALLY ABSOLUTE ZERO *********


Poll deviations without regard to the margin of error favored
Bush in 43 states.

The probability of this occurence is given by the Excel
formula:
Prob = 1- BINOMDIST(42,51,0.5,TRUE)
The odds of this occurring due to chance alone: 
********************** 1 in 2.9 MILLION ****************


The unweighted average deviation from the exit polls: 2.24%.
The unweighted average MOE for all the states: 2.85%.

The MOE was significantly lower than the average (2.85%) in
the battleground states where the sample sizes were large.

A total of 73,607 were polled nationwide.					

St	N	Poll	Vote	Diff	StDev	MoE	Prob  	 1 in	>MoE?	Favor
AK	910	40.5%	35.6%	-4.9%	1.7%	3.3%	0.002	524	yes	Bush
AL	730	41.0%	36.9%	-4.1%	1.9%	3.7%	0.014	70	yes	Bush
AR	1,402	46.6%	44.6%	-2.0%	1.4%	2.7%	0.066	15		Bush
AZ	1,859	47.0%	44.4%	-2.6%	1.2%	2.3%	0.014	72	yes	Bush
CA	1,919	54.0%	54.4%	0.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.645	2		Kerry

CO	2,515	49.1%	47.1%	-2.0%	1.0%	2.0%	0.024	42	yes	Bush
CT	872	58.5%	54.3%	-4.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.008	130	yes	Bush
DC	795	91.0%	89.4%	-1.6%	1.8%	3.5%	0.193	5		Bush
DE	770	58.5%	53.4%	-5.1%	1.8%	3.6%	0.003	385	yes	Bush
FL	2,846	50.5%	47.1%	-3.4%	1.0%	1.9%	0.000	4,799	yes	Bush

GA	1,536	43.0%	41.4%	-1.6%	1.3%	2.6%	0.112	9		Bush
HI	499	53.3%	54.0%	0.7%	2.3%	4.5%	0.622	2		Kerry
IA	2,502	50.6%	49.3%	-1.4%	1.0%	2.0%	0.091	11		Bush
ID	559	33.5%	30.3%	-3.2%	2.2%	4.2%	0.067	15		Bush
IL	1,392	57.0%	54.8%	-2.2%	1.4%	2.7%	0.056	18		Bush

IN	926	41.0%	39.3%	-1.7%	1.7%	3.3%	0.150	7		Bush
KS	654	35.0%	36.6%	1.6%	2.0%	3.9%	0.792	1		Kerry
KY	1,034	41.0%	39.7%	-1.3%	1.6%	3.1%	0.204	5		Bush
LA	1,669	44.5%	42.3%	-2.2%	1.2%	2.4%	0.040	25		Bush
MA	889	66.0%	62.1%	-3.9%	1.7%	3.4%	0.011	90	yes	Bush

MD	1,000	57.0%	56.0%	-1.0%	1.6%	3.2%	0.262	4		Bush
ME	1,968	54.7%	53.6%	-1.2%	1.2%	2.3%	0.154	6		Bush
MI	2,452	52.5%	51.2%	-1.3%	1.0%	2.0%	0.112	9		Bush
MN	2,178	54.5%	51.2%	-3.3%	1.1%	2.1%	0.001	797	yes	Bush
MO	2,158	47.5%	46.1%	-1.4%	1.1%	2.2%	0.101	10		Bush

MS	798	43.3%	40.2%	-3.0%	1.8%	3.5%	0.046	22		Bush
MT	640	39.8%	38.6%	-1.2%	2.0%	4.0%	0.277	4		Bush
NC	2,167	48.0%	43.6%	-4.4%	1.1%	2.1%	0.000	35,233	yes	Bush
ND	649	34.0%	35.5%	1.5%	2.0%	3.9%	0.773	1		Kerry
NE	785	36.8%	32.7%	-4.0%	1.8%	3.6%	0.013	75	yes	Bush

NH	1,849	55.4%	50.4%	-5.0%	1.2%	2.3%	0.000	94,466	yes	Bush
NJ	1,520	55.0%	52.9%	-2.1%	1.3%	2.6%	0.059	17		Bush
NM	1,951	51.3%	49.0%	-2.3%	1.2%	2.3%	0.026	39		Bush
NV	2,116	49.4%	48.1%	-1.3%	1.1%	2.2%	0.128	8		Bush
NY	1,452	63.0%	58.4%	-4.6%	1.3%	2.6%	0.000	3,468	yes	Bush

OH	1,963	52.1%	48.7%	-3.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.002	624	yes	Bush
OK	1,539	35.0%	34.4%	-0.6%	1.3%	2.5%	0.330	3		Bush
OR	1,064	51.2%	51.6%	0.4%	1.6%	3.1%	0.601	2		Kerry
PA	1,930	54.3%	51.0%	-3.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.002	566	yes	Bush
RI	809	64.0%	59.6%	-4.4%	1.8%	3.5%	0.007	147	yes	Bush

SC	1,735	46.0%	41.0%	-5.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.000	52,161	yes	Bush
SD	1,495	37.8%	38.4%	0.7%	1.3%	2.6%	0.697	1		Kerry
TN	1,774	41.5%	42.5%	1.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.801	1		Kerry
TX	1,671	37.0%	38.2%	1.2%	1.2%	2.4%	0.837	1		Kerry
UT	798	30.5%	26.0%	-4.5%	1.8%	3.5%	0.007	149	yes	Bush

VA	1,431	48.0%	45.6%	-2.4%	1.3%	2.6%	0.038	26		Bush
VT	685	65.0%	59.2%	-5.8%	1.9%	3.8%	0.002	666	yes	Bush
WA	2,123	54.9%	52.9%	-2.1%	1.1%	2.2%	0.030	34		Bush
WI	2,223	52.5%	49.8%	-2.7%	1.1%	2.1%	0.006	175	yes	Bush
WV	1,722	45.3%	43.2%	-2.1%	1.2%	2.4%	0.047	21		Bush
WY	684	30.9%	29.1%	-1.8%	2.0%	3.8%	0.182	5		Bush
	73,607									
Avg	1,443	48.82%	46.58%	-2.24%	1.46%	2.85%	0.1094	9		Bush
Med	1,495	49.10%	47.08%	-2.09%	1.32%	2.59%	0.0474	21		Bush
Min	499	30.50%	26.03%	-5.78%	0.96%	1.87%	0.0000	94,466		
Max	2,846	91.00%	89.43%	1.62%	2.28%	4.48%	0.8372	1		
								

 
 

[TruthIsAll]

13. GRAPH: 30 state deviations over 2% to Bush; ZERO to Kerry...

Look at FL, PA, OH.
EACH OF THESE STATES DEVIATED TO BUSH BY 3.4%.
ALL DEVIATIONS WERE BEYOND THE MOE.

FORTY-THREE (43) STATES DEVIATED TO BUSH.
TWENTY-ONE (21) EXCEEDED OR EQUALED THE MOE.
THIRTY (30) EXCEEDED THE EXIT POLL BY 2.0%

EIGHT (8) STATES DEVIATED TO KERRY.
THE MAXIMUM DEVIATION WAS 1.6%

[Carni]

21. Zero percent shift?

A zero percent shift for Kerry in 30 states seems IMPOSSIBLE to me.

I have read this numerous times and I have read the arguments from people claiming these exit polls meant nothing...but HTF is it POSSIBLE that Kerry received a zero shift deviation in 30 states?

I am sorry... but I cannot get past this, because to me from a common sense standpoint it seems impossible that the bulk of the shift went bush's way. It defies all reason IMO

[electropop]

19. This should be a thread

It's a great bunch of work, as always, TIA!

[TruthIsAll]

23. They can spin this all they want...

but it is not going away.

[ErinGoBraghLess]

17. Senate use Diebold

Brilliant suggestion!!! I can't think of anything that would drive the point home any better.

As I've said in other places, I am not convinced this election was stolen. BUT -- we need to have accurate and verifiable elections. I think everyone can agree on that.

[The Straight Story]

2. Kick with comment

In addition to above, maybe we could add exit polling to my thoughts on making congress vote blindly (and of course we might tell em that some gay dems in San Fran will install and set up the machines and software for their voting, just to see their faces....)

Ah, how fast would the rethugs in congress be out on the talk shows telling us how bad such a way of voting is?

[rumpel]

3. hehe

:)

[pacalo]

4. I hope Ms. Ash is writing to Rep. Conyers & other congresspeople

about this.

[marions ghost]

5. what IS the disconnect here??

"Before November 2, several U.S. newspapers pursued concerns about election integrity. They reported on the vulnerability of electronic voting to simple errors and malicious hacking, and the unnecessary dangers posed by non-verifiable touch-screen voting. They exposed obstructionist maneuvers, such as Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell's telling election commissioners to reject voter registrations submitted on thin paper.

Post-election, though, the mainstream media has largely ignored or ridiculed concerns about U.S. electoral errors and fraud."

(excerpt from article)

[RaulVB]

6. Thanks!

One more nail on the coffin of American "democracy".

If you accept rigged elections, you are doomed.

[Land Shark]

8. A well written article! n/t

[Melissa G]

9. kick for Arlene! n/t

[sepia_steel]

10. Awesome! KICK

[KaryninMiami]

12. Excellent.

Great reminder about why I am leaving sunny Miami on Wednesday to head up to freezing DC for the weekend to protest the coronation and then be part of the conversation about next steps at the PDA summit conference (www.pdamerica.org).

[Land Shark]

14. Double Kick for Karyninmiami's trip to DC! n/t

[electropop]

18. See you here! n/t

[WilliamPitt]

15. .

[tngledwebb]

16. It is imperative to understand

the level of MSM complicity, and thus the seriousness of our plight. Watch how, for example, WaPo or NYT editors pay occasional lip service to middle of the road 'liberal' slants on the news, but never call a lie a lie when it would truly hurt BushCo, aka the illegal regime.
Read the Daily Howler for the gruesome details.

[FogerRox]

20. Oh man I gotta read the whole thing

[TexasLawyer]

22. kick