The Unmaking of the President: 2004

[TruthIsAll]

PRE-ELECTION TRENDS AND FORECASTS

1. Pre-election Vote Projections


2. National Pre-election Vote Trend based on Weighted State Polls


3. Nine Independent Polls: Monthly Pre-election Average Trend


4. Final Pre-election National Polls: 18 Corporates and Independents


5. Bush Job Approval: Feb. 2001 – Nov. 2004


POST ELECTION ANALYSIS

6. Pre-election Published State Polls vs. Exit Polls


7. Exit Poll Deviations: Gore 2000 vs. Kerry 2004


8. National Exit Poll Demographic-Weighted Vote Percentages


9. Red Shift Deviations and Probabilities


10. State Vote Deviations by Machine Type


11. State Exit Poll Deviations vs. Margin of Error

[jazzjunkysue]

1. A little help with interpretation, please? I'm not a pollster, but I'd

like to know what these charts are showing.

[TruthIsAll]

3. The first set are pre-election polls, trends and projections.

You can find Pre-election data and ElectionModel info here:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/


The last set are based on post election exit polls.
Compare Kerry's vs. Gore deviations from the exit poll to the vote.
You can see that Gore's are accurate, Kerry's are much higher than the vote.

[Wilms]

2. TIA. Can I ask for some more info, please.

Could you add to the graphs that lack it, each poll's MOE.

A general explaination of 7 and 9 would help me.

And on graph 10, an additional row with the total vote Deviation per K printed.

BTW, did I say, "Woweeeee!"?

[TruthIsAll]

4. Answers

Graph 11 for displays each state poll MOE vs. the percentage deviation from the exit poll to the vote.

For example, if the state exit poll MOE is 2.5%, and the exit vote deviated from the vote by 3.0%, then that was a highly unlikely event, since there is a 95% chance that the vote would lie within + or -2.5% of the exit poll percentage.

Graph 7 compares Gore's state exit poll deviations to Kerry's.

Graph 9 show the deviations as a percentage from Kerry's exit poll to vote and the probability of the deviation to occur.

Graph 10 is a stacked bar chart which displays the state vote deviations from Kerry to Bush, based on the percentage deviations, for each machine type.

For example, if the state had 60% punched cards and 40% Optical scanners, and there was a 100,000 vote deviation, we assume for simplicity that 60,000 votes deviated to Bush from the punched cards and 40,000 from the scanners. Of course, this is just an estimate and can just as well be some other ratio. The point of the graph is two-fold:
1) To show the loss in Kerry votes, based on deviations from the exit polls and
2) To show the type and mix of the polling machines and paper ballots in each state.

[Wilms]

5. Great, thanks. n/t

[Wilms]

6. kick n/t

[Peace Patriot]

7. My, my, my, you are a hard workin' T'Aller...

You might want to add a graph of Bush approval ratings since 11/2 (been hovering at around 50% or below since then--worst approval rating of any recently "elected" president in history, I believe), and...

...the polls showing that nearly 60% of Americans STILL disapprove of the Iraq war.

Some creds this guy has.

[Karenca]

8. Rasmussen Reports B*SHITJob Approval

Bush Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Today 45 53
Jan 26 45 53
Jan 25 45 53
Jan 24 44 54
Jan 23 44 54
Jan 22 43 55
Jan 21 44 54
Jan 20 44 54
Jan 19 46 52
Jan 18 48 50
Jan 17 48 50
Jan 16 47 51
Jan 15 48 51
Jan 14 47 51
Jan 13 47 51
Jan 12 48 50
Jan 11 48 50
Jan 10 47 51
Jan 9 45 54
Jan 8 45 53
Jan 7 47 51
Jan 6 47 51
Jan 5 46 52

[Karenca]

9. B*sh----- POOR-73% -- Handling if Iraq--The Idiot Son of an Asshole.

How optimistic are you about the future of Iraq?
Not at all 48%
Barely 24%
Very 15%
Somewhat 13%
Total Votes: 163,749

Has the war in Iraq been worth the human cost?
No 75%
Yes 14%
It's too early to tell 11%

What should we do with troop levels in Iraq?
Decrease 59%
Increase 21%
Maintain 21%
Total Votes: 156,721

How would you rate Bush's handling of Iraq?
Poor 73%
Good 11%
Excellent 10%
Fair 6%

How has your opinion of the war changed since it began?
No change 44%
I support it less 39%
I support it more 12%
I go back and forth 5%
Total Votes: 145,578

How confident are you the election in Iraq will be credible?
Not at all 67%
Somewhat 21%
Very 12%

How concerned are you the election will be disrupted by violence?
Very 76%
Somewhat 17%
Not at all 7%
Total Votes: 137,320

[RaulVB]

10. Kick (n/t)