I found the 1988 election results and checked to see whether
it was possible to change the winner by flipping 535,000
votes. I found that I could flip the electoral vote count to
a tie by flipping about 525,000 votes from Bush to Dukakis if
I choose the states carefully.
The official electoral vote result was Bush 426, Dukakis 112.
To make it a tie I have to flip 157 electoral votes from Bush
to Dukakis, for a count of Bush 269, Dukakis 269.
Here are the results and the votes I needed to flip to achieve
that result:
BUSH DUKAKIS EVS MARGIN VOTES EVS
DC 27,590 159,407 3 -131,817
MA 1,194,635 1,401,415 13 -206,780
IA 545,355 670,557 8 -125,202
MN 962,337 1,109,471 10 -147,134
RI 177,767 225,123 4 -47,356
HI 158,625 192,364 4 -33,739
OR 560,126 616,206 7 -56,080
NY 3,081,871 3,347,882 36 -266,011
WI 1,047,499 1,126,794 11 -79,295
WV 310,065 341,016 5/1 -30,951
WA 903,835 933,516 10 -29,681
VT 124,331 115,775 3 8,556 4,278 3
IL 2,310,939 2,215,940 24 94,999 47,500 24
PA 2,300,087 2,194,944 25 105,143 52,572 25
MD 876,167 826,304 10 49,863 24,932 10
NM 270,341 244,497 5 25,844 12,922 5
MT 190,412 168,936 4 21,476 10,738 4
SD 165,415 145,560 3 19,855 9,928 3
CA 5,054,917 4,702,233 47 352,684 176,342 47
MO 1,084,953 1,001,639 11 83,314 41,657 11
CT 750,241 676,584 8 73,657 36,829 8
DE 139,639 108,647 3 30,992 15,496 3
ND 166,559 127,739 3 38,820 19,410 3
WY 106,867 67,113 3 39,754 19,877 3
CO 728,177 621,453 8 106,724 53,362 8
MI 1,965,486 1,675,783 20 289,703
AK 119,251 72,584 3 46,667
ME 307,131 243,569 4 63,562
LA 883,702 717,460 10 166,242
KY 734,281 580,368 9 153,913
NV 206,040 132,738 4 73,302
KS 554,049 422,636 7 131,413
AR 466,578 349,237 6 117,341
OH 2,416,549 1,939,629 23 476,920
TX 3,036,829 2,352,748 29 684,081
TN 947,233 679,794 11 267,439
OK 678,367 483,423 8 194,944
NJ 1,743,192 1,320,352 16 422,840
ID 253,881 147,272 4 106,609
NC 1,237,258 890,167 13 347,091
MS 557,890 363,921 7 193,969
NA 397,956 259,235 5 138,721
NH 281,537 163,696 4 117,841
SC 606,443 370,554 8 235,889
AL 815,576 549,506 9 266,070
GA 1,081,331 714,792 12 366,539
AZ 702,541 454,029 7 248,512
IN 1,297,763 860,643 12 437,120
VA 1,309,162 859,799 12 449,363
UT 428,442 207,343 5 221,099
FL 2,617,775 1,656,701 21 961,074
TOT 48,884,993 41,809,094 537 7,075,899 525,843 157
To flip to Dukakis as a clear winner rather than a tie would
require flipping more than 600,000 votes but still in the same
ballbark as Collier's claim.
I thought your challenge was a reasonable one and was a bit
surprised when I found that in fact you can flip the result
with that few votes.
Link to my source of 1988 election results:
http://www.presidentelect.org/e1988.html
By the way, I don't know what the deal is with WV showing 5/1
electoral votes. Could this be a case where a Dukakis elector
voted for other than Dukakis because it was known not to make
a difference? If so, then add that vote for Dukakis and the
269/269 tie becomes a 270/269 win by Dukakis.
Edit: turn on plain text so columns line up