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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 08:03 PM Original message |
FOUR SCENARIOS: WILL THE MSM REPORT THIS? |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 08:15 PM Response to Original message |
1. Please run this scenario: |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 08:22 PM Response to Reply #1 |
2. Done |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 08:40 PM Response to Reply #2 |
3. Thanks |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 09:09 PM Response to Reply #3 |
4. Breakeven is 15.3% of Gore voters for Bush, or 1 of every 6.5 dems) |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 09:39 PM Response to Reply #4 |
7. That is assuming that only 90% of Bush-2000 voters voted for him in 2004 |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 09:52 PM Response to Reply #7 |
9. Well, kiwi, how long will you hold out on us? You still |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 10:30 PM Response to Reply #9 |
11. The verdict is not mine to make. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 11:38 PM Response to Reply #11 |
14. Oh, no, not the MOE again. Come on Kiwi. It was 1.0% |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 12:17 AM Response to Reply #14 |
17. I remember someone who had read the NEP pdf file saying that... |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:11 AM Response to Reply #17 |
19. I must say, I'm really surprised at your 4-6% MOE.. |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 10:27 AM Response to Reply #19 |
22. I have googled my head off and here is the best I can find: |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 10:44 AM Response to Reply #22 |
24. Excellent work! Great find! Now compare to the formula: MOE= 1/sqrt(n) |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 07:49 PM Response to Reply #22 |
27. Minvis has verified that the "Vote in 2000" ques. was not asked in Ohio. |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-14-05 11:40 PM Response to Reply #22 |
28. "Vote 2000" appears on only 1 of 4 questionnaires. It is on the backside. |
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dzika (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-05 04:06 PM Response to Reply #28 |
30. There were 102 Vote2000 responders for Ohio in the NEP Raw data |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-05 08:08 PM Response to Reply #30 |
31. Thanks dzika ! |
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dzika (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-05 09:35 PM Response to Reply #31 |
32. The weights |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 11:47 PM Response to Reply #11 |
16. What experience are you referring to? |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 12:36 AM Response to Reply #16 |
18. The realm of our experience: mid-term polling. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 09:17 PM Response to Reply #3 |
5. Can I ask how you came up with that particular scenario? |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 09:49 PM Response to Reply #5 |
8. I tried to find a combo least likely to be labeled "totally implausible".. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 10:01 PM Response to Reply #8 |
10. Not at all. I assumed that's what you did. And I give you credit |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 10:42 PM Response to Reply #10 |
12. IMO neither Kerry nor Bush have yet been "proven" to have won. |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 11:28 PM Response to Reply #10 |
13. Maybe we should think of this as a civil - not a criminal - court case |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 11:42 PM Response to Reply #13 |
15. Ok, I take that as a mild concession. Welcome aboard. n/t |
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vince3 (224 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-05-05 09:19 PM Response to Original message |
6. You Rock, TIA |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:26 AM Response to Reply #6 |
20. Thanks, vince. The naysayers always pop up whenever I come |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 10:38 AM Response to Reply #20 |
23. I must be paranoid.... |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 10:47 AM Response to Reply #23 |
25. Relax. It was not meant for you. Your motivation is to get at the truth. |
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kiwi_expat (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 07:59 PM Response to Reply #25 |
26. Thank you. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 06:48 AM Response to Original message |
21. Come to think of it, even 3% of Gore voters crossing over is IMPLAUSIBLE. |
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LatePeriduct (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-05 09:40 PM Response to Reply #21 |
33. Implausible is right! |
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LatePeriduct (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-05 02:56 PM Response to Original message |
29. I think I saw the dominionists reel back! |
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LatePeriduct (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-18-05 09:12 PM Response to Original message |
34. kick |
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