If it was your decision to make, what would you do?

[TruthIsAll]

You have just received the results of the National Exit Poll
of 13047 respondents. They show that Kerry is the winner by
50.69% - 47.77%. This closely matches the pre-election polls,
after adjusting for an expected undecided voter allocation
(2-1 for Kerry).

It's your job to adjust the weightings and fine-tune the
results, based on your best interpretation of the latest
demographic data.

This is the the Exit Poll for the Party-ID category:

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Dem		38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Repub		35%	92%	7%	1%	100.0%
Indep		27%	45%	52%	3%	100.0%
		100%	47.77%	50.69%	1.54%	100.0%

You notice that the PartyID mix differs slightly from the two
prior elections, in which the weightings were 39 Dem/35 Rep
/26 Independent.	

1) Do you change the mix slightly to 39/35/26, leaving the
voting percentages intact?
			
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Dem		39%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Repub		35%	92%	7%	1%	100.0%
Indep		26%	45%	52%	3%	100.0%
		100%	47.41%	51.07%	1.52%	100.0%

or

2) Do you change the PartyID mix to 37/37/26, even though this
is at variance with the two prior elections? 

Do you also change the voting percentages, even though there
is a 1.0% margin of error in an Exit Poll of 13047
respondents? 

Making these adjustments will reverse the Exit Poll weighted
popular vote from 51-48% Kerry to 51-48% Bush.

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Dem		37%	11%	89%	0%	100.0%
Repub		37%	93%	6%	1%	100.0%
Indep		26%	48%	49%	3%	100.0%
		100%	50.96%	47.89%	1.15%	100.0%

or 

3) Do you just leave the results as is, having full confidence
that your polling methodology is sound?
 

[hippiepunk]

1. You gotta make your poll questions simpler

dude. Don't make me read that much at night!

[TruthIsAll]

2. Come on, it ain't that hard. You have 3 choices.

1- Make a slight change to the Party Id weights as per the
last two elections.

2- Major changes to all the numbers in order to match the exit
poll to the vote, effectively reversing the Kerry win to a
Bush win.

3- Leave well-enough alone and do nothing. Report the exit
poll results as they are - without making any excuses as to
why it does not agree with the vote count.