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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 01:48 PM
Original message
What -- 2of Cuyahoga NEPs in same locations as 3% Recount Sample???
Posters liam_laddie, minvis, skids, kiwi, blue22 et al of NEP
reverse engineering fame posted the 6 NEP results for Cuyahoga
county a few days ago in
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x329749#356359

Cuy NEPs
Address	                Precinct
----------              -------------
25401 SOLON ROAD	BEDFORD HTS 4-B
3057 HOLLY LANE	        WESTLAKE 2-B  ***
3510 EAST 149TH STREET	CLEVELAND 3G
4839 PEARL ROAD	        CLEVELAND 16P
6184 PEARL ROAD	        PARMA HTS R
6795 SOLON BOULEVARD	SOLON 2-C  ***

I haven't had a a chance to do a full analysis but I thought
this early fact was worth sharing now.

The Solon 2-C NEP was at 25401 SOLON ROAD, the same address
that one of the 3% recount samples took place. Ditto for
Westlake 2-B on Holly Lane. What are the chances that 2 of the
6 NEPs would be in 2 of the 34 3%-Recount-Sample vote
locations? This just keeps getting stranger by the byte!

The 34 vote locations of the 3% Sample
-------------------------------------
pctName                 VoteAddress
===============         ===================
BROOKLYN G              9200 BIDDULPH ROAD
BRATENAHL A             10300 BRIGHTON RD
BRECKSVILLE L           4400 OAKES ROAD
BROADVIEW HTS 2-B       5025 E. MILL ROAD
CLEVELAND 13N           2409 WEST 10TH STREET
CLEVELAND 15N           2005 WEST SCHAAF ROAD
EUCLID 2-J              367 E. 260TH STREET
CLEVELAND 1O            3938 JOANN AVENUE
CLEVELAND 20T           4427 ROCKY RIVER DRIVE
CLEVELAND 2E            3830 EAST 131ST STREET
CLEVELAND 3D            3290 E 126TH ST
CLEVELAND 5T            3050 EAST 77TH STREET
CLEVELAND HTS 4-B       1700 CREST ROAD
INDEPENDENCE F          6111 ARCHWOOD AVENUE
EUCLID 4-B              1941 SAGAMORE DRIVE
GARFIELD HTS 4-B        4900 TURNEY ROAD
GARFIELD HTS 7-B        13633 ROCKSIDE ROAD
HIGHLAND HTS 1-A        5827 HIGHLAND ROAD
HIGHLAND HTS 2-A        5827 HIGHLAND ROAD
MAYFIELD HTS C          6503 1/2 MARSOL ROAD
NORTH OLMSTED 2-I       24101 MAPLE RIDGE ROAD
NORTH OLMSTED 3-F       28590 WINDSOR DRIVE
NORTH OLMSTED 3-G       28590 WINDSOR DRIVE
OLMSTED FALLS 2-B       7853 MAIN STREET
NORTH ROYALTON 6-D      14600 STATE ROAD
PARMA 5-E               4040 TAMARACK DRIVE
PARMA 7-J               7700 MALIBU DRIVE
SOLON 2-A               6795 SOLON BOULEVARD ****
STRONGSVILLE 2-C        16400 PARK LANE
STRONGSVILLE 2-G        13883 DRAKE ROAD
STRONGSVILLE 4-I        19091 WATERFORD PARKWAY
WARRENSVILLE HTS 1-A    22035 CLARKWOOD PARKWAY
WESTLAKE 4-A            3057 HOLLY LANE      ****
WESTLAKE 6-B            29694 CENTER RIDGE ROAD
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. Anything new on the Cuyahoga BOE fraud investigation?
It seems pretty clear they didn't follow state law. Does that matter in Ohio?

Prosecutor to probe Cuyahoga County recount
2 written complaints allege problems in '04 presidential
election
By Stephen Dyer
Beacon Journal staff writer

CLEVELAND - Erie County Prosecutor Kevin J. Baxter is
investigating whether the Cuyahoga County Board of
Elections broke the law in its recount of ballots from the
November presidential election.

Cuyahoga County Prosecutor William Mason appointed Baxter
as a special prosecutor in the case because the board of
elections is Mason's client, which could pose a conflict of
interest, said Mason spokeswoman Jamie Dalton.

Baxter said he didn't know yet whether the allegations have
any validity. He said his investigators will begin
interviewing people in the next several weeks.

"If it goes nowhere, it goes nowhere,'' Baxter said. "We'll
just start from the beginning... This is rather
preliminary.''

The probe stems from two requests written to Mason: one
from minor-party presidential candidates David Cobb and
Michael Badnarik, and another from entrepreneurial
consultant Edward Michael Caner.

Dalton said Mason turned over the papers March 2.

The complaints allege that the board violated state law
because the precincts it recounted were neither randomly
selected nor was the opening of ballots properly witnessed.

In addition, Cobb and Badnarik allege that there were
problems with the board's ballot-transfer cases, which can
reveal whether the precinct used the ballots assigned to it
or whether ballots from other precincts were used.

Finally, they contend that the county's vote-tabulation
machines were used improperly and that discrepancies exist
between the certified recount and the certified original
vote.

All this was done to cover up problems in the November vote
and ensure that no hand-recount would have to be done
around the county, the letter from Cobb and Badnarik
alleges.

Board's response

Michael Vu, director of the Cuyahoga County Board of
Elections, declined to comment on specifics of the case but
said "we will cooperate fully with the Erie County
prosecutor.''

Vu said the elections procedure "needs to be a transparent
process.''

The board's elections coordinator, Jacqui Maiden, told the
board in its Feb. 8 meeting that the recount was handled
based on a recount of a Garfield Heights Municipal Court
judge election from 1981 and that the procedures used in
November "are the same that has been used in the past.''

The procedure Maiden cited included picking 3 percent of
the precincts for a hand count, but the meeting minutes
didn't indicate whether the board picked the 3 percent at
random.

According to the complaint filed by both the candidates and
their lawyer, Richard Kerger of Toledo, the board did not
randomly select 3 percent of the county's precincts to
recount, as required by state law. Instead, the county
selected recount precincts only from among those with 550
voters or more, which eliminated 90 percent of the county's
precincts, according to the letter.

As Caner put it in his shorter e-mail: "This is similar to
randomly drawing a card out of a deck, but before doing so,
eliminating all suits but hearts.''

In addition, the candidates' letter contends that the way
the precincts were chosen seems "to be of a special sort:
those in which (U.S. Sen. John) Kerry received either his
largest or second largest number of votes in the ward. This
meant that precincts in which (President) Bush received an
unusually high number of votes could not be examined, nor
could the precincts in which the third-party candidates
received unusually high vote totals.''

The letter said there is no way this phenomenon happened at
random.

More allegations

The letter alleges that Maiden admitted in a Dec. 22
meeting that "ballots in selected precincts had been opened
without the presence of witnesses and had been sorted and
hand counted in advance of the original recount'' --
setting up a test-run to assure that the recount would
comport closely with the original count so that a full hand
count wouldn't have to be conducted.

As for the transfer-case problem, the letter alleges that
on Dec. 17, a number of precincts were found to have had
problems -- namely some ballots assigned to one precinct
were used in another, or too many or too few ballots were
used.

The letter suggested that "the (election) staff had been
assigned to clean-up the tell-tale evidence of election
irregularities within the cases.''

Kerger said Thursday that Cuyahoga County was the only
county to receive a letter like the one he referred to
Mason's office. He said generally he understands that
county boards of elections, mostly made up of volunteers,
aren't going to run perfect elections. "If we hold the
Super Bowl every four years, we wouldn't expect the
referees to be perfect,'' he said.

However, what he found in Cuyahoga County was different.
There "it seemed to be more than just a mistake,'' he said.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stephen Dyer can be reached at 330-996-3523 or
sdyer@thebeaconjournal.com
© 2005 Beacon Journal and wire service sources. All Rights
Reserved.
http://www.ohio.com
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The Doctor. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 02:11 PM
Response to Original message
2. 2 of 6 National Exit Poll results from OH coinciding with
Edited on Sun Apr-17-05 02:13 PM by Dr_eldritch
a recount?

I don't really see anything of statistical relevance there.

34 3% recount locations
2 out of 34 locations were also cited in NEP.
We know that Blackwell hand-picked the recount sites, so I'd need more info to see what you're getting at.

I didn't get much sleep last night - so I may be missing something.
Flesh out your concerns a bit and let me know if I missed anything.

Thanks.


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liam_laddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 06:22 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Recount precincts
Not sure how many counties the SoS handpicked, but in Hamilton, the techs made a series of tests, consisting of taking every 6th of all 1013 precincts, then 7th of 1013, then 8th, and so on from the full canvass listing, and getting a total from each test run until thay got a 'ballots-cast' total of 12,992 (or close) which
is the 3% of total cast. The test that reached this total was every 34th precinct. This seems to be a random pick, if regular interval, but it seems to be totally by chance that any single
precinct would be included. I'm not a statistics kinda guy...
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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 08:16 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. In Cuyahoga 34 of 1436 precincts were handed picked by the SOS
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 08:24 PM by Iceburg
there was nothing random about the selection. Did the SOS also hanve a say in where the NEPs would be taken from in this county?
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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
13. There were 1436 precincts distributed over 583 vote locations
in Cuyahoga county. 6 precincts of 1436 precinct were chosen to run the NEPs in. Judging from the results it appears that the NEP people tried to pick 2 precincts from Kerry strongholds (K%>75%), 2 precincts from Bush strongholds (B% >45%) and 2 precincts that were a draw (60%K% <70%)relatively speaking.

From a statistical point of view what are the odds of two independent groups drawing a single common vote locations? Now what are the odds of drawing two common vote locations?

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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. self delete
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 09:47 PM by Bill Bored
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 06:22 PM
Response to Original message
4. I'd like to know what this is too.
This could be important. kick
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 09:49 PM
Response to Original message
5. Big kick
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
6. Did someone check this out?
What happened?


On election day, an inordinate number of punch card machines across the city of Cleveland and its surrounding suburbs were "broken" and out of service, causing long lines and delays of 3-4 hours. A great many potential voters were reported to have left the polling places because they couldn't wait - jobs or families had to take priority - not everyone can wait for 4 hours to vote.

These are the same type of punch card machines used in Florida in the 2000 election. Anyone paying attention to the coverage of the Florida recount may be aware of the need to remove the chads underneath the grid ("punch guide") inside the punch card machines. If this is not done, voters would be unable to punch out the perforated chads, creating the infamous dimpled, hanging, and pregnant chads. Worse, if enough chads build up beneath the grid, the stylus - the metal pin that actually punches out the chad - can't even push the chads through the holes in the grid. When this happens, you have a "broken" machine. Since there was no coverage at all - neither local nor national - of the large number of machines "broken" on election day, there is no way of knowing if this was the problem - we can only speculate. But if chad build-up was not the problem, then why were there "broken" punch card machines in 34 polling places, consisting of 70 precincts, in the Cleveland area? And where were these broken machines located? In heavily Democratic, pro-John Kerry, predominantly black communities.
http://shadowbox.i8.com/Suppression/ohio/ohiomachines.htm
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Really strange...
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 01:59 AM
Response to Original message
8. Needs a bargraph.
Someone really needs to make a bargraph...
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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 10:47 AM
Response to Original message
9. Preliminary Analysis of Cuy NEPs ...
Preliminary Analysis of Cuy NEPs

On the surface (final number for the 6 polls - %Bush vs
%Kerry) the exit polls are in agreement with the official
results (Table 1). 

Table 1
 
Strong-               ======= NEP ==  ===== Official ======
Hold  pctName         BC_n  K_n  B_n   BC      K       B   
----- --------------- ----- ---  ---   ---     ---    ---- 
Bush  PARMA HTS R     21     9   11    361     162     196 
Bush  WESTLAKE 2-B    52    23   29    493     230     257 
Draw  CLEVELAND 16P   48    31   16    602     374     217 
Draw  SOLON 2-C       51    33   17    396     276     117
Kerry BEDFORD HTS 4-B 52    47    4    484     380      93
Kerry CLEVELAND 3G    30    28    1    480     456      18 
               Tot   254   171   78   2816    1878     898
    
                   Avg    67.3% 30.7%  %ofBC  66.7%   31.9%


However, at the precinct level (%Bush vs %Kerry), there is
alarming variance. Specifically, there is a significant Kerry%
underestimate in the Bush strongholds and an even more
alarming Kerry% over-estimate in the Kerry strongholds, which
is in keeping with my theory that most of the mistabulated
votes occurred in the Kerry strongholds. (Table 2)

Table 2
 
Strong-              Kerry% NEPvsOffic.  Bush% NEPvsOfficial
hold  pctName        K Dif K%n  K%off    B Dif B%nep  B%off
----- -------------  ----  ----  ----    ----- -----  ------  
Bush  PARMA HTS R    -2.0  42.9  44.9    -1.9  52.4   54.3
Bush  WESTLAKE 2-B   -2.4  44.2  46.7     3.6  55.8   52.1
Draw  CLEVELAND 16P   2.5  64.6  62.1    -2.7  33.3   36.0
Draw  SOLON 2-C      -5.0  64.7  69.7     3.8  33.3   29.5
Kerry BEDF. HTS 4-B  11.9  90.4  78.5   -11.5   7.7   19.2
Kerry CLEVELAND 3G   -1.7  93.3  95.0    -0.4   3.3    3.8

The NEP has overestimated the Kerry% by ~12% in Bedford
Heights 4-B and and underestimated in both Bush strongholds
(Westlake and Parma Hts)

Even at the stronghold aggregation level we see the similar
(albiet not as extreme) overestimation/underestimation
pattern. (see Table 3). The fact that the errors cancel each
over out in the final results brings me no comfort. Are the
precinct results in Table 2 an example of "within
precinct error" that we hear so much about?


Table 3 Strongholds Aggregated
 
              Kerry% NEPvsOfficial  Bush% NEP vs Official
              ------------------    ---------------------
Stronghold    K Dif  K%Nep K%off    B Dif  B%Nep   B%off
-----------   -----  ----- -----    -----  -----   -----
Bush          -2.1   43.8   45.9     1.8    54.8   53.0
Draw          -0.5   64.6   65.1    -0.1    33.3   33.5
Kerry          4.7   91.5   86.7    -5.4     6.1   11.5


Mathematical analysis aside, it just doesn't make sense to me
intuitively that Bush would loose ground in his
"strongholds" (as defined by his performance in
2000) yet gain ground in the Gore/Kerry strongholds.

Consider the top ten vote cities (of 57 cities) for Bush in
2000 versus 2004 results. 

In these Bush strongholds, Bush percentage drops 1.34% overall
from his 2000 results, while Kerry increases on Gore's margin
by 5.16%. In 7 of the Bush Top Ten cities, Bush's margin
decreases from the 2000 results.
          
In 2004, 9650 additional votes were up for grabs in these top
ten cities(7450 from new voters, and ~ 2200 from voters who
decided to not vote for a third party in 2004). 

Of the new votes up for grabs, Kerry takes 67% of the vote in
these STRONG BUSH cities.

                  2000           2004       2000v2004         
       
                 Bush-Gore    Bush-Kerry    -Others-  
--------------------------   ------------  ----------
Vote City       B%     G%      B%     K%   2000  2004
HUNTING VAL    68.9   27.7    71.5   27.2   2.7  0.7
GATES MILLS    67.9   28.3    63.7   34.7   2.7  0.4
BENTLEYVILLE   65.3   31.1    66.1   32.1   3.2  0.6
BRECKSVILLE    60.2   34.4    58.7   40.2   4.1  0.2
CHAGRIN FALLS  58.6   35.9    55.0   43.9   4.3  0.2
WESTLAKE       58.5   35.9    57.0   41.8   4.2  0.3
BAY VILLAGE    57.7   36.7    54.8   44.0   4.5  0.3
ROCKY RIVER    56.2   38.1    53.7   44.7   4.2  0.4
MAYFIELD VIL   55.9   38.9    55.6   41.9   3.1  0.6
STRONGSVILLE    5.2   40.4    55.5   43.1   3.2  0.4

Average        57.4%  37.4%   56.1%  42.6%  3.8% 0.3%


Percent Change in Bush's Top 10 Cities

                   %Change                 Change  
             -- Presidential --  -----  Ballots Cast   ---
-----------  ------------------  -------------------------    
   
Vote City     B%     K-G%   OT%   2000   2004   Chg   Chg%
HUNTING VAL   2.56  -0.49  -2.0    296    305     9   3.04
GATES MILLS  -4.17   6.32  -2.3   1344   1399    55   4.09
BENTLEYVILLE  0.82   1.02  -2.6    470    508    38   8.09
BRECKSVILLE  -1.50   5.76  -3.9   6552   7410   858  13.10
CHAGRIN FLL  -3.51   7.99  -4.1   2058   2171   113   5.49
WESTLAKE     -1.47   5.85  -3.9  13916  15688  1772  12.73
BAY VILLAGE  -2.90   7.28  -4.2   8441   8904   463   5.49
ROCKY RIVER  -2.56   6.66  -3.8   9650  10456   806   8.35
MAYFIELD VIL -0.27   3.08  -2.4   1634   1793   159   9.73
STRONGSVILLE  0.34   2.78  -2.8  19251  22433  3182  16.53

Avg or (Tot) -1.34   5.16  -3.5  63612  71067  7455   11.7
===========================================================



Summary of New Vote Distribution 

                               --Votes--        
Total Change in Votes                                   
  Additional/new Ballots Cast     7455        
  Switch from 3rd Parties         2213        
                                  ----
                         Total    9668        

                                         % of Total
                                          --------
       Bush% of New  Votes         3334     34%
       Kerry% of New Votes         6457     67%

This is further proof that the vast majority of the
"mis-tabulations" took place in strong Kerry
territory and not the strong bush territory as is suggested
(albeit lightly) in Freeman's latest report on the exit polls,
and by other posters on DU.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Anti-Kerry punch-device fraud much easier in the Kerry strongholds.
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 08:40 PM by kiwi_expat
"which is in keeping with my theory that most of the mistabulated
votes occurred in the Kerry strongholds." -Iceburg

Random mis-alignment of punch-devices, or cross-precinct card-punching would tend to hurt the leading candidate for the precinct, the most.




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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 08:53 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Agreed -- why mess around with the small returns in
the Bush strongholds. I don't understand why Steve Freeman and others insist that the mistabulations occurred in primarily the Bush strongholds. They need to be more careful in their assertions unless they have the data and the analsyis to support such statements.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 08:59 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. there were different types of problems in different areas- i.e.
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 09:00 PM by berniew1
there appears to have been a good bit of ballot stuffing in some Bush strongholds. Unbelievable turnouts. But not all.

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mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #15
20. In their defense
Iceburg: you may be forgetting the other element of the election equation, turnout. A Bush stronghold may have high republican registration, but that does not mean he gets a high turnout. Ballot stuffing inflates turnout.

I would not put any analytical weight on what USC Votes is addressing, their primary concern is with the transparency of the NEP methodology. For the general public, the Jan 19 report is adequate, but for anyone with pretense to statistical analysis, the report is opaque.

Mike
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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Agreed ... but within this thread I am talking specifically about
Cuyahoga county, the largest of the Ohio county, and apparently the county within Ohio with the greastest number and most significant anomalies.

While I do not address turnout specfically in the post(s) above, it is a factor that I keep my eye on very closely.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Your analysis is consistent with the EIRS data findings; most of the hanky
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 08:55 PM by berniew1
panky/suppression/dirty tricks/malfeasance/misfeasance took place in minority areas- where there was a high Bush payoff for undervotes and misvotes. And there was a huge amount of such- a highly coordinated and systematic effort to make sure large numbers of minority(and student) voters didn't get to vote or didn't have their votes counted(or counted correctly)

http://www.flcv.com/ohiosum.html
http://www.flcv.com/summary.html


it seems that in the first group, there is only one precinct with really significant deviation

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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. It would seem an audit by someone is needed in the Bedford Hts 4-B precinc
and precincts like this where the results seem strange

check the voter logs vs official votes; compare to past elections
look at undervotes, overvotes, (Nader votes), absentees, rejected provisionals, rejected absentees, etc. There is likely something to explain the strange results.

Checking a lot of the strong Kerry precincts for why the official turnout was so low and why the unexplained vote patterns would likely be very productive. There would likely be obvious problems found.
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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. The 12% deviation is very significant. This precinct was
paired with another precinct at that location. Gore won the sister precinct in 2000, taking 91% of the presidential votes. Stayed tuned for the full analyis of that vote location.
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. Kick for importance.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 09:13 PM
Response to Original message
18. Be carefull about generalizing too much based on a few precincts
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 09:14 PM by berniew1
the sample group analyzed in detail only had one with a very big difference, and this may not be the same as in other areas. But I think the finding that there is a major problem in minority precincts is significant and consistent with the EIRS reports in most states. But % difference is not the only or even necessarily the most significant factor. The major suppression in minority areas and registration/absentee manipulation shown by the EIRS reports is I suspect the biggest problem and wouldn't be shown through an analysis of this type.

And the pattern is likely very different in touch screen counties where there was a lot of switching and glitches in many counties of many states.

http://www.flcv.com/summary.html


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