Remember that stuff about how early women voters jacked up the
Kerry exit poll numbers?
And remember the argument that Exit Polls have a high MoE?
Let's proceed to demolish those two canards.
At 3:59pm, the first 8349 exit poll respondents were split 58%
female/42% male. And Kerry led the exit poll by 3%.
So that's why the exit polls were out of whack and Kerry was
leading, right?
Wrong.
The split turned to 54/46 at 7:33pm, after 2629 additional
respondents, bringing the total to 10978.
And Kerry still led the exit poll by 3%.
The split was still 54/46 at 12.22am, after 2069 additional
respondents, bringing the total to 13047.
And Kerry still led the exit poll by 3%.
The split was still 54/46 at 2.05pm, after just 613 additional
respondents, bringing the final total to 13660.
And Kerry lost the exit poll by 3%.
And remember that other stuff about the high MoE in Exit
polls?
Well, Mitofsky's own table shows an MoE of 1% for samples over
8,000.
http://www.mysterypollster.com/photos/uncategorized/nep_error.jpg
Guess what? The 1% MoE applied, even at the 3:59pm sample of
8349. Kerry's 3% lead was beyond the MoE right up until the
last 613 respondents.
So much for those two MSM/naysayer talking points.
......................................
11/2/04, 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
MoE:1.09%
Bush Kerry Nader
M 42% 51% 47% 2%
F 58% 45% 53% 2%
100% 47.52% 50.48% 2.00%
122.26 58.10 61.72 2.45
Kerry Margin 3.62 million votes
11/2/04, 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
MoE:0.95%
Bush Kerry Nader
M 46% 51% 47% 2%
F 54% 45% 54% 1%
100% 47.76% 50.78% 1.46%
122.26 58.39 62.08 1.78
Kerry Margin 3.69 million votes
11/03/04, 12:22am, 13047 respondents
MoE: 0.88%
Bush Kerry Nader
M 46% 52% 47% 1%
F 54% 45% 54% 1%
100% 48.22% 50.78% 1.00%
122.26 58.95 62.08 1.22
Kerry Margin 3.13 million votes
11/3/04, 2:05pm, 13660 respondents
MoE: ?
Bush Kerry Nader
M 46% 55% 44% 1%
F 54% 48% 51% 1%
100% 51.22% 47.78% 1.00%
122.26 62.62 58.42 1.22
Kerry Margin -4.21 million votes