Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

20,000-vote Switch From Bush to Kerry = Electoral College Dead Heat

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
 
Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 02:45 AM
Original message
20,000-vote Switch From Bush to Kerry = Electoral College Dead Heat
Edited on Tue Apr-26-05 02:46 AM by Bill Bored
This was buried in another thread, so in case you haven't seen it:

IA, NM and NV have a total of 17 electoral votes.

In the aggregate, Bush beat Kerry by less than 40,000 votes in these 3 states.

Switch 20,000 votes to Kerry, and the electoral college would have been tied 269 to 269, even if Bush won Ohio.

Imagine if, along with the Ohio challenge, the Congress had to decide an electoral college tie! It's no wonder the media didn't report the narrow margins in these 3 swing states, or did they?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
vince3 Donating Member (224 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 02:51 AM
Response to Original message
1. If they reported it
they didn't spend much time on it.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NoodleBoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 02:53 AM
Response to Original message
2. which would have left the American people with a President who, according
to their resources, did not win the popular vote, for the second time in as many elections.

a reason I've heard that's been quietly mentioned why John Kerry wasn't committed to the Ohio court challenge and other recounts was because he didn't want to be a President who wasn't elected by a plurality, which actually makes me respect the man more.

and yes, I know, Diebold, Blackwell, blah blah blah, but trying to convince at least fifty million die-hard idealogues that it's bad that someone manufactured votes even if he's their god in a matter of hours after years of polemical opposition politics is beyond even the power of Fox news.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
MontageOfFreedom Donating Member (633 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 03:27 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. I read this.
".....is beyond even the power of Fox News."

I don't actually believe that. Fox News can convince people that the sky is falling, and they will believe it.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 08:21 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Kerry won the popular vote by at least 4 mm votes.
Edited on Tue Apr-26-05 08:23 AM by TruthIsAll
Read the extensive state and national exit poll analysis here
at DU..


STATE EXIT POLL
73607 RESPONDENTS
12:22am				

STATE EXIT POLL REGIONAL SUMMARY
Region	Kerry	Exit	Vote/	Kerry
State	Pct	Size	Exit	Exit

EAST	59.60%	16261	165.1%	9691
MIDW	50.28%	19377	158.3%	9742
SOUTH	43.75%	20332	192.0%	8895
WEST	51.81%	17637	138.9%	9137
				
TOTAL	50.90%	73607	164.5%	37466
				


NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
13047 RESPONDENTS				
12:22am

Region  Pct	Bush	Kerry	Nader

EAST	  22%	41%	58%	1%
MIDW	  26%	49%	50%	1%
SOUTH	  31%	54%	45%	1%
WEST	  21%	45%	53%	1%

TOTAL	100.0%	47.95%	50.84%	1.00%
VOTES(mm)	58046	61544	1211

............................................................
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. I disagree with the first part.
Edited on Tue Apr-26-05 12:32 PM by Bill Bored
Had Kerry won the EC and not the official popular vote, the issue simply becomes one of a Constitutional Amendment to do away with the EC. Kerry could have even supported that if he wanted to, and hence be absolved of his syn of winning the election. It wouldn't pass anyway (and there's a bill for it now anyway!) because the small states would not want to give up their power, some of which is derived by the minimum number of EVs guaranteed them by the Constitution.

So JK could have had it both ways. He could have won the White House, and been the Great Healer too, as well as maintaining the status quo that put him there. Or perhaps maybe he really does want to abolish the EC! In that case, there would have been no conflict whatsoever in his mind.

If you think the other guys wouldn't jump at the chance to take power again, regardless of what the popular vote was, you're dreaming. So what though? We are a nation of laws and the law says the EC rules. That's how the campaigns are waged. That's why we have SWING states. That's the reality, for better or worse.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NoodleBoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 01:29 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. the point is, we've seen how dirty they fight before,
and if that had happened you know they'd file a "frivolous lawsuit" as soon as they could, contradicting everything they said in 2000 and claiming that the winner of the popular vote wins over the winner of the electoral college vote.

on top of that, you know we'd see, every day, for years, shit about how John Kerry didn't "win," how he stole the election. If that happened, I wouldn't be suprised by a couple assassination attempts made on him for "stealing" the election even though it was won Constitutionally.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. they have been talking about banning the EC for 40 years---
that I remember in my life time
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 08:19 AM
Response to Original message
4. Kerry won all three according to the state exit polls
STATE EXIT POLL DATA
(re-weighted to total state vote)

Region	Kerry	Exit	Vote/	Kerry
State	Pct	Size	Exit	Exit

EAST	59.60%	16261	165.1%	9691

CT	58.47%	872	107.7%	549
DC	91.63%	795	28.3%	206
DE	58.44%	770	17.6%	79
MA	66.46%	889	195.8%	1157
MD	57.04%	1000	142.8%	815
ME	54.83%	1968	22.4%	241
NH	55.50%	1849	22.0%	226
NJ	56.13%	1520	142.7%	1217
NY	63.97%	1452	303.5%	2819
PA	54.41%	1930	179.8%	1888
RI	64.24%	809	32.1%	167
VT	65.69%	685	27.0%	121
WV	45.19%	1722	26.4%	205
				
				
MIDW	50.28%	19377	158.3%	9742

IA	50.67%	2502	37.7%	478
IL	57.13%	1392	237.7%	1891
IN	40.97%	926	167.0%	634
KS	34.60%	654	113.1%	256
MI	52.55%	2452	123.5%	1591
MN	54.61%	2178	81.0%	963
MO	47.48%	2158	79.5%	814
ND	33.58%	649	30.0%	65
NE	36.54%	785	61.7%	177
OH	52.06%	1963	180.2%	1841
SD	37.42%	1495	16.1%	90
WI	50.21%	2223	84.3%	941
				
SOUTH	43.75%	20332	192.0%	8895

AL	41.08%	730	133.4%	400
AR	46.93%	1402	74.2%	488
FL	49.93%	2846	138.1%	1963
GA	43.11%	1536	111.2%	737
KY	40.76%	1034	89.8%	378
LA	44.50%	1669	60.0%	445
MS	43.20%	798	73.8%	254
NC	47.31%	2167	83.8%	859
OK	34.73%	1539	49.5%	265
SC	45.79%	1735	48.0%	382
TN	41.15%	1774	71.1%	519
TX	36.84%	1671	229.4%	1412
VA	47.96%	1431	115.5%	792
				

WEST	51.81%	17637	138.9%	9137

AK	40.14%	910	23.9%	87
AZ	46.60%	1859	40.4%	350
CA	55.73%	1919	459.9%	4919
CO	49.07%	2515	60.2%	743
HI	53.32%	499	61.5%	164
ID	33.33%	559	76.0%	142
MT	39.28%	640	49.5%	124
NM	51.34%	1951	27.6%	277
NV	50.66%	2116	27.8%	298
OR	51.22%	1064	122.5%	668
UT	29.93%	798	81.7%	195
WA	55.07%	2123	95.5%	1116
WY	32.07%	684	25.1%	55
				
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
MontageOfFreedom Donating Member (633 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #4
17. This to me is very compelling data.
You can't attempt to refute this as being faulty national bias, when it doesn't even follow the same rules as the national poll does and actually breaks it down into county specifics.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
candice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 11:19 AM
Response to Original message
6. New Mexico and Nevada results very suspect
There was vote buying in New Mexico and vote switching (and dumping of Democratic registration forms) in Nevada. I don't know about Iowa, but these two Western states didn't pass the smell test for a fair election.

"The truth of the election is in the recount."
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rumpel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Nevada was the only State w/ paper print-outs, right? In which case
a paper trail is obviously not enough.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. No paper in Las Vegas DREs AFAIK. Don't ask me why! nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. I think they had paper trails on the DRE's for 2004
Not law, but some sort of SoS directive.

http://secretaryofstate.biz/press/121003.htm

Others did, as well.

Here's the states with current VVPAT Law or SoS directive. A few of these are recent (post-2004 election.)

States Currently Requiring Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT)

Alaska - House Bill 459
http://www.legis.state.ak.us/basis/get_bill.asp?session=23&bill=HB459

Arkansas - Act 654
http://www.arkleg.state.ar.us/ftproot/bills/2005/public/HB1360.pdf

California - Senate Bill 1438
http://info.sen.ca.gov/pub/03-04/bill/sen/sb_1401-1450/sb_1438_bill_20040927_chaptered.html
Certification of Sequoia AVC Edge/VeriVote Printer http://www.ss.ca.gov/executive/press_releases/2005/05_003.pdf
CA Election Code:http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/cgi-bin/calawquery?codesection=elec&codebody=&hits=20

Idaho - House Bill 283 (Awaiting Governors Signature)
http://www3.state.id.us/oasis/H0283.html#billtext

Illinois - Public Act 093-574 http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/publicacts/fulltext.asp?name=093-0574&GA=093 (see: page 130)

Maine - LD 1759 http://janus.state.me.us/legis/LawMakerWeb/externalsiteframe.asp?ID=280012037&LD=1759&Type=1&SessionID=5

Missouri By Order of the Secretary of State
http://tinyurl.com/4a5jp

Nevada By Order of the Secretary of State
http://secretaryofstate.biz/press/121003.htm

New Hampshire - Title LXIII Elections 656:41
http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/rsa/html/LXIII/656/656-41.htm

New Mexico - Senate Bill 678
http://legis.state.nm.us/Sessions/05%20Regular/bills/senate/SB0678JUS.html
http://legis.state.nm.us/lcs/_session.asp?chamber=S&type=++&number=678&year=05

Ohio
Senate Bill 167 http://www.legislature.state.oh.us/bills.cfm?ID=125_SB_167
House Bill 262 http://www.legislature.state.oh.us/bills.cfm?ID=125_HB_262
House Bill 358 http://www.legislature.state.oh.us/bills.cfm?ID=125_HB_358

Oregon- State Law 258-211
http://www.leg.state.or.us/ors/258.html
Secretary of State Comments: http://www.sos.state.or.us/executive/speeches/110603op.htm
(Oregon) will be purchasing touch screen voting machines in 2006 in order to make it easier for disabled voters to vote with privacy. Each county will have two machines as an option for voters, and each machine will produce a paper record of the votes cast in case a recount is required.

South Dakota - Codified Laws (Title) 12-17B-2.1
http://legis.state.sd.us/statutes/index.aspx?FuseAction=DisplayStatute&Type=Statute&Statute=12-17B-2.1

Utah - House Bill 211
http://www.le.state.ut.us/~2005/htmdoc/hbillhtm/HB0211S01.htm

Utah - House Bill 1005
http://www.le.state.ut.us/~2005S1/htmdoc/hbillhtm/hb1005.htm

Vermont - Act No. 94 (Senate Bill 202)
http://www.leg.state.vt.us/docs/2004/acts/ACT094.SUM

Wisconsin - Act 265
http://tinyurl.com/665nn


VVPAT Law Reference:

ElectionLine.org Voter-verified paper audit trail legislation & information
http://www.electionline.org/index.jsp?page=Paper%20Trail%202005

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Utah has a problem
I wasn't clear on the exact problems with the loophole in HB 1005, Integrity of Election Results Amendments (Rep. Dougall, J.) , so I contacted Verified Voting who sent out an alert about the problems with this bill, and Pamela Smith of Verified Voting was kind enough to respond in detail about the problems - and believe me - it's a major problem! Please read her response:

Hi Clarity - Thanks for the message and the comment from
Tom you forwarded below. I appreciate you having sent out
the alert to your contacts. Tom's right, the bill DOES look
pretty good, because it almost duplicates the bill that was
signed by the Governor recently (Substitute HB211). The
key word is "almost." We've heard from the sponsor that this
bill was submitted because due to a technicality, the bill the
Governor signed may not have had all the right wording... and
therefore it is possible that it isn't really law. This new "version"
therefore (nearly) duplicates the old one, and just makes some
"clarifications" according to the bill sponsor (Dougall, in both
cases).

The big concern: By comparison to the previous bill (Substitute HB211,
introduced by Dougall and signed by the Governor), this new bill adds
a clause which didn't exist before: "for systems certified after January
2005"
--essentially grandfathering in any systems certified in the state before that date -- in Section 205A-302, see line 75.

Then, it adds another new phrase:
"(II) shall permit the voter to inspect the record of the voter's selections independently 82 only if reasonably practicable commercial methods permitting independent inspection are 83 available at the time of certification of the voting equipment by the lieutenant governor; "

This changes the intent of the earlier law by allowing discretion
as to whether "reasonably practicable commercial methods" exist
at the time of certification, rather than REQUIRING these factors
FOR certification.

Then, it inserts a date where none existed previously (line 103-104):
(2) Before selecting or purchasing a new voting equipment system after
January 1, 2007, the lieutenant governor shall:

The combination of these new factors leaves a window currently
open to permit the purchase of machines certified before Jan 1 2005
without convening any new voting equipment selection committee before
Jan 2007. While that may not seem like a problem at first, since the
state doesn't want to "undo" the work of the previous selection committee, it turns out it creates a dangerous loophole.

So, the request for proposal (RFP) that was already issued would not be re-issued to incorporate the state's newly approved requirement for
VVPAT, and the vendors who supplied bids on that original RFP
do not have to provide VVPAT equipment if their equipment was
certified in the state before January 1, 2005.

And we are NOW in the time frame when most of Utah's new
equipment will be purchased. States have to spend their Help America
Vote Act (HAVA) funds in order to have new equipment in place in time
for the first federal election after January 1, 2006.

When the original bill was passed, there was speculation about what
might happen with the RFP, if I recall correctly. Would it be allowed to stand? Would it be reissued? In any case, the intent of the voters and the new law passed in March was clear: require VVPAT. It would be
unfair to the voters of Utah to allow non-VVPAT equipment to squeak
through because of this apparent loophole.

Let me know if you have additional questions...
Pam
Pamela Smith
Nationwide Coordinator
VerifiedVoting.org
pam@verifiedvoting.org
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 02:08 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. Ugh.
I was confused, as well, as I searched for Utah VVPAT.

If I have it correctly, 1005 passed but has yet to be signed by the Governor. Is that your understanding?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. That's my understanding
Action alerts have been sent to all lists I'm on - public comment on the bill ends TODAY.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 01:49 PM
Response to Original message
14. I posted that at bushflash.com there were a number of scenarios that would
have put Kerry in the WH.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Fri May 03rd 2024, 03:06 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC