EXIT POLLS: WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW

[TruthIsAll]

Let's dispel the following myths from those naysayers who since the election continue to claim that exit polls are:

1) unsophisticated and unreliable,
2) not based on true random samples,
3) biased by reluctant responders and
4) do not take historical trends into account.

There should be no Mystery regarding Exit Polls. And believe it or not, the Mystery Pollster and I are in complete agreement:

Late in the day exit polls, like the 12:22am National Exit Poll of 13047 respondents and the various state exit polls (both had Kerry winning by 51-48%) are scientific, accurate and reliable.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_what.html

EXIT POLLS: WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW

snip

SOPHISTICATED AND RELIABLE
I have always been a fan of exit polls. Despite the occasional controversies, exit polls remain among the most sophisticated and reliable political surveys available. They will offer an unparalleled look at today's voters in a way that would be impossible without quality survey data. Having said that, they are still just random sample surveys, possessing the usual limitations plus some that are unique to exit polling (I also remain dubious about weighting telephone surveys to match them, but that is another story for another day).


A RANDOM SAMPLING OF 1495 PRECINCTS
A quick summary of how exit polls work: The exit pollster begins by drawing a random sampling of precincts within a state, selected so that the odds of any precinct being selected are proportionate to the number that typically vote in that precinct. The National Election Pool Exit Poll, which is conducting the exit polling for the six major networks today, will send exit pollsters to 1,495 precincts across the country.

A RANDOM SELECTION OF 100 VOTERS PER PRECINCT
One or sometimes two interviewers will report to each sampled precinct. They will stand outside and attempt to randomly select roughly 100 voters during the day as they exit from voting. The interviewer will accomplish this task by counting voters as they leave the polling place and selecting every voter at a specific interval (every 10th or 20th voter, for example). The interval is chosen so that approximately 100 interviews will be spread evenly over the course of the day.

RELUCTANT RESPONDERS: STATISTICAL CORRECTIONS FOR ANY BIAS
When a voter refuses to participate, the interviewer records their gender, race and approximate age. This data allow the exit pollsters to do statistical corrections for any bias in gender, race and age that might result from refusals.

snip

WEIGHTINGS BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA AND VOTER TURNOUT
One of the unique aspects of the exit poll design is the way it gradually incorporates real turnout and vote data as it becomes available once the polls close. The exit poll designers have developed weighting schemes and algorithms to allow all sorts of comparisons to historical data that supports the networks as they decide whether to "call” a state for a particular candidate. When all of the votes have been counted, the exit poll is weighted by the vote to match the actual result.

snip

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[kster]

2. kick...n/t

[autorank]

3. Kick -- This should be read to understand the TIA-Febble debate

:kick: This is vital information for the debate above.