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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon May-16-05 05:24 PM Original message |
Within-Precinct-Error Correlation BY Precinct (NEW) |
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ccarter84 (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon May-16-05 06:32 PM Response to Original message |
1. ooooh pretty graph....n/t |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon May-16-05 07:55 PM Response to Reply #1 |
3. Yes. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon May-16-05 06:51 PM Response to Original message |
2. Very pretty. Now let's see the data- all of it. And not massaged |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon May-16-05 08:17 PM Response to Reply #2 |
4. I Posted This |
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tommcintyre (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 04:02 AM Response to Reply #4 |
27. "Maybe it's being presented in the polling conference." Yeah, right! |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 09:27 AM Response to Reply #27 |
29. OK, So When Data *Is* Presented You Don't Believe It |
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LightningFlash (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 09:56 AM Response to Reply #29 |
30. There is no original "scatterplot" |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 11:00 AM Response to Reply #30 |
32. If You Want to Have a Discussion |
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LightningFlash (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 03:05 PM Response to Reply #32 |
34. "USCV used the same kind of graph..." |
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Blue Shark (225 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 05:32 PM Response to Reply #29 |
56. Cooler heads... |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon May-16-05 10:07 PM Response to Original message |
5. As I understand this even Liddle says the is irrelevant to the Fraud issue |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 02:38 PM Response to Reply #5 |
15. It's Very Relevant to One Issue |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 08:09 PM Response to Reply #15 |
16. The issue is the House appears to BE ON FIRE |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 08:45 PM Response to Reply #16 |
17. However Much Panic You Feel, |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 09:46 PM Response to Reply #17 |
19. I am not in a state of panic..ribofunk |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 03:13 PM Response to Reply #19 |
36. As Far as Framing Goes, |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 11:05 PM Response to Reply #36 |
38. You still seem kinda confused about the irrelevancy of the |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 01:30 PM Response to Reply #38 |
39. I Have No Idea What You Just Said |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 01:55 PM Response to Reply #39 |
40. The USCV paper itself contains the argument. |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 02:06 PM Response to Reply #39 |
41. Got a question |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 02:30 PM Response to Reply #41 |
42. This is How I Understand the Situation: |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 03:03 PM Response to Reply #42 |
43. I think I understand it differently, but need you to clarify. |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 03:30 PM Response to Reply #43 |
48. Yes, I Was Under the Impression |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 03:04 PM Response to Reply #42 |
44. I believe it's simpler than you make it |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 03:18 PM Response to Reply #44 |
45. Hey Chi, |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 04:28 PM Response to Reply #45 |
53. Not a problem |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 05:02 PM Response to Reply #53 |
55. I agree, the shape argument is the main premise of the paper. |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 03:28 PM Response to Reply #44 |
47. as for the response rates... |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 03:36 PM Response to Reply #47 |
50. It looks like the response rate range is wider than that |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 03:56 PM Response to Reply #50 |
51. oops, we're talking past each other |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 11:23 PM Response to Reply #39 |
59. I said your post was a classic example of Bad Framing. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 11:50 PM Response to Reply #17 |
22. More clap-trap. |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 01:02 AM Response to Reply #17 |
23. Despite previous vapid msm media silence... |
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Blue Shark (225 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 05:45 PM Response to Reply #23 |
57. I Hear the Thunder too Melissa... |
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tommcintyre (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 03:51 AM Response to Reply #17 |
26. My my... What obvious spin and attempted damage control |
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Kip Humphrey (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 10:07 PM Response to Reply #15 |
20. And what Democratic fraud would that be??? |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 04:05 PM Response to Reply #20 |
52. Here's How the Possibility of Democratic Fraud Fits In |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 04:50 PM Response to Reply #52 |
54. Noise versus fraud. |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat May-21-05 12:34 AM Response to Reply #54 |
63. Yes, You Certainly Can Have Noise Plus Fraud |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 11:21 PM Response to Reply #52 |
58. USCV is unlikely to take this seriously because it is an Irrelevant |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat May-21-05 12:03 AM Response to Reply #58 |
60. If You Read the Revised USVC Article |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat May-21-05 12:30 AM Response to Reply #60 |
61. actually, I don't think that's the Liddle effect |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat May-21-05 12:33 AM Response to Reply #60 |
62. Actually, they did - |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat May-21-05 07:31 AM Response to Reply #62 |
64. yeah, they do that too |
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mod mom (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 10:37 AM Response to Reply #15 |
31. Where are the massive reports of Dem fraud? Repug spin like WMDs were |
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Bill Bored (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon May-16-05 11:00 PM Response to Original message |
6. Question for Febble or someone else who knows: |
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autorank (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 02:13 AM Response to Reply #6 |
7. Well, I don't think she ever explained that very logical question... |
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Bill Bored (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 12:23 PM Response to Reply #7 |
9. I haven't seen it, but it's probably in the formula itself. |
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autorank (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 09:31 PM Response to Reply #9 |
18. Bill take a look at this. |
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Bill Bored (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 01:44 AM Response to Reply #18 |
24. Uh, this refers to Liddle's work on the FL Op Scan "Dixiecrat" effect. |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 12:16 PM Response to Reply #6 |
8. You are Correct. If Exit Polls Are Accurate, |
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Bill Bored (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 12:37 PM Response to Reply #8 |
10. Well, compare this plot to the one you posted: |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 02:20 PM Response to Reply #10 |
13. It's a Combination of the Two Effects |
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Bill Bored (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 01:29 PM Response to Reply #8 |
11. Slow down! |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 02:00 PM Response to Reply #11 |
12. here's the thing... |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 02:32 PM Response to Reply #11 |
14. Yes, a 5-Point Pro-Bush Error in the Vote Count Would Have the Same Effect |
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Bill Bored (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue May-17-05 11:16 PM Response to Reply #14 |
21. Fair enough. |
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LightningFlash (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 02:52 AM Response to Reply #21 |
25. I think this says it all. |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 03:00 PM Response to Reply #25 |
33. When Has ANY Pollster Released the Raw Data? |
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LightningFlash (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 03:10 PM Response to Reply #33 |
35. "How widespread the blue-shift is" |
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Bill Bored (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 05:07 PM Response to Reply #33 |
37. Definition of Blue Shift? |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 03:32 PM Response to Reply #37 |
49. Yes, I Did Mean What's Usually Called the Red Shift |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed May-18-05 07:10 AM Response to Reply #14 |
28. Self delete (nt) |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu May-19-05 03:19 PM Response to Original message |
46. ribofunk, let's pick up our conversation here. |
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