There were approximately 3200 respondents to the National Exit
Poll question: How Did You Vote in 2000?
The margin of error (MoE) for N= 3200 respondents is given by
the formula: MoE = 1.96 *sqrt(p*(1-p)/N),
In this case, p = .15, since that 15.5% is the percentage of
Gore votes that Bush needed to win by 3 million votes, based
on the final exit poll. Thus, the MoE = 1.24% for this sample.
But...lets avoid using the MoE formula result. Otherwise, it
will just divert us from the point of discussion.
So...let's remove the sample "cluster effect" or
"design factor" from the discussion. We will use 2%
for this analysis.
According to the Mitofsky MoE table, the MoE = 2% for the
sample-size range which includes N = 3200, assuming a 15-85%
characteristic weighting.
We'll use a 2% MoE to calculate probabilities that Bush would
get:
a) 15.5% of Gore voters assuming the Final National Exit Poll,
which Bush won by 51.11-48.48% and
b) 18% of Gore voters assuming the 12:22am Exit poll, which
Kerry won by 51.41-47.62%.
__________________________________________________________
National Exit Poll: 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry wins by 4.5 million votes
Voted Mix Bush Kerry Nader Votes
No 17% 41% 57% 2% 20.78
Gore 39% 8% 91% 1% 47.68
Bush 41% 90% 10% 0% 50.13
Nader 3% 21% 71% 8% 3.67
98% 100% 47.62% 51.41% 0.97% 122.26
122.26 58.22 62.85 1.19
_________________________________________________________
Assuming maximum 2000 voter turnout,
Kerry wins by almost 7 million votes.
Voted Mix Bush Kerry Other Votes
No 17.31% 41% 57% 2% 21.16
Gore 40.25% 8% 91% 1% 49.21
Bush 39.82% 90% 10% 0% 48.68
Nader 2.62% 21% 71% 8% 3.20
100% 46.71% 52.34% 0.96% 122.26
122.26 57.10 63.99 1.17
_________________________________________________________
Bush needed 18% of Gore voters for his 3 million margin
To get 18% of Gore voters, given the 8% exit poll result, the
probability is less than 1 in 450 trillion.
Voted Mix Bush Kerry Other Votes
No 17.31% 41% 57% 2% 21.16
Gore 40.25% 18% 81% 1% 49.21
Bush 39.82% 90% 10% 0% 48.68
Nader 2.62% 21% 71% 8% 3.20
100% 50.73% 48.31% 0.96% 122.26
122.26 62.02 59.07 1.17
_________________________________________________________
Prob =1-NORMDIST(X, 8%, 2%/1.96 ,TRUE)
X Prob>X Odds: 1 in
5% 99.84% 1
6% 97.50% 1
7% 83.65% 1
8% 50.00% 2
9% 16.35% 6
10% 2.50% 40
11% 0.16% 609
12% 0.00% 22,577
13% 0.00% 2,083,900
14% 0.00% 485,887,839
15% 0.00% 288,701,537,060
16% 0.00% 450,359,962,737,050
17% 0.00% nc
18% 0.00% nc < *************************
****************************************************
National Exit Poll: 1:25pm, 13660 respondents
Bush wins by 3 million votes
Voted Mix Bush Kerry Nader Votes
No 17% 45% 54% 1% 20.78
Gore 37% 10% 90% 0% 45.24
Bush 43% 91% 9% 0% 52.57
Nader 3% 21% 71% 8% 3.67
100% 51.11% 48.48% 0.41% 122.26
62.49 59.27 0.50
_________________________________________________________
Assuming maximum 2000 voter turnout,
Kerry wins by almost 3 million votes.
Voted Mix Bush Kerry Other Votes
No 17.31% 45% 54% 1% 21.16
Gore 40.25% 10% 90% 0% 49.21
Bush 39.82% 91% 9% 0% 48.68
Nader 2.62% 21% 71% 8% 3.20
100% 48.60% 51.02% 0.38% 122.26
122.26 59.42 62.37 0.47
_________________________________________________________
Bush needed 15.5% of Gore voters for his 3 million margin
Voted Mix Bush Kerry Other Votes
No 17.31% 45% 54% 1% 21.16
Gore 40.25% 15.5% 83.5% 1% 49.21
Bush 39.82% 91% 9% 0% 48.68
Nader 2.62% 21% 71% 8% 3.20
100% 50.81% 48.40% 0.79% 122.26
122.26 62.13 59.17 0.96
_________________________________________________________
To get 15.5% of Gore voters, given the 10% exit poll result,
the probability is 1 in 28 million.
Prob =1-NORMDIST(X, 10%, 2%/1.96, TRUE)
X Prob>X Odds: 1 in
5% 100.00% 1
6% 100.00% 1
7% 99.84% 1
8% 97.50% 1
9% 83.65% 1
10% 50.00% 2
11% 16.35% 6
12% 2.50% 40
13% 0.16% 609
14% 0.00% 22,577
15% 0.00% 2,083,900
15.5% 0.00% 28,322,049 < **********
*******************************************************
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