Ohio Vote Totals - With Some Subtractions...

[sabra]

Thought I would give it a try...

136,483 = Bush's current estimated lead in Ohio
- 3,893 = extra votes for Bush in Franklin County
--------
132,590 = updated estimated total

Cuyahoga County has had 2,666 of it's 24,788 provisional ballots checked. 1,749 out of those 2,666 have been deemed valid. This is about 66%, which is much lower than last elections 88% valid. Let's project 70% will be valid. 70% of the 155,428 total estimated provisional ballots is 108,799. Let's say that Kerry gets 70% of those votes, as they appear to be in more urban Democratic leaning areas. We would then get 76,159 votes to be subtracted from the total.

132,590
-76,159
--------
56431 = updated estimated total

Now let's say a recount would occur, the 92,670 "spoiled" ballots would come in to play. Let's say %50 are legit, we then have 46,335 ballots to be tallied. Let's give %60 of those votes to Kerry, that would be another 27,801 to be subtracted.

56,431
-27,801
--------
28630 = updated estimated total

Now we still have the unknown. Unknown Overseas ballots postmarked by Election Day and late absentees just prior to the election also remain to be counted, I believe. So...

28630
-unknown
--------
This is going to be damn close!

Again my numbers were projections, and estimations, but as we stand even with out the discovery of any more glitches or issues, I think a recount is essential, and would make this thing very close (smells like FL 2000).

[Stephanie]

1. You don't consider Bush's share of those recounted/spoiled etc ballots

that would be added to his total

[sabra]

2. I know, I decided those don't count :-)

[George_S]

3. If it gets close enough, there is a mandatory recount...

... isn't that the Ohio law?

[Stephanie]

11. But without them your math doesn't make sense

If you say:

Now let's say a recount would occur, the 92,670 "spoiled" ballots would come in to play. Let's say %50 are legit, we then have 46,335 ballots to be tallied. Let's give %60 of those votes to Kerry, that would be another 27,801 to be subtracted.

Then you have to add 18,534 to Bush, so you have only made a 9267 vote difference between them, and you aren't as near to zero as you make it seem.

[liberal al zib]

4. I think you have made

a mistake in your calculations. If Kerry gets 70% of the supposed accepted provisional margin (108,799), his "net gain" in these provisional ballots will be 43,520 and not 76,159.

[DuckFan4ever]

5. Interesting..

Keep it up... who know?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. If there are 300,000 outstanding votes and we are down by 130k

and we take those 300,000 votes by a rate of 70% then we still lose by 10,000.
If we take them at a rate of 72% then we win by 2,000 votes.

Proofs:
300,000 x .7 = 210,000 minus Bush net gain of 90,000 = net of 120,000.
300,000 x .72 = 216,000 minus Bush net gain of 84,000 = net of 132,000.

[saddemocrat]

8. do these counts

include the fact that the votes that don't go for Kerry get added on to Bush's pile?

[liberal al zib]

9. I am glad

that you understand the "net gain". The original poster is not aware of this simple math.

[sabra]

10. SORRY SORRY

I didn't do the net gain, because I couldn't conceive of giving Bush the more votes :-) Never the less, I still think when we start considering all these things, the race is extremely close! Sorry for the miscalc, math isn't my forte.

[newyawker99]

15. Hi liberal al zib!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[NOWMDNOGWB]

7. gore got 85% of approved so

it's still a net 70% gain (85-15) if he gets the same percent as Gore, so those no.s of arond 55,000 after provisional could be close.

[liberal al zib]

13. Do you have

a source/Link about Gore getting 85% of the provisional ballot in Ohio in the year 2000?

[NOWMDNOGWB]

14. no handy

I know others have posted 90% of ballots approved and 85% of those going to gore posted a coulpe times on this site..I'll start digging.

[FeelinGarfunkelly]

12. If we take 75% of the votes

of coffee drinkers and I'll assume 50% of tea drinkers who obviously voted for Kerry, that means there is hope for the caffeinated beverage industry to win this election.

/sarcasm

Seriously, I admire the spirit, but it seems that your percentages are just arbitrary. We need to stick to what we have. Remember, to assume makes an ass out of u and me.

And i don't mean ass as in donkey. i mean it ass as in moran.