Which or how many of these CA races below seem key to you?

[EFerrari]

I was looking at the Congressional races in CA, and trying to find a way to predict where we need to watch these muthas the most.

I thought I'd start with Districts that have the most dense Latino population and Republican incumbents because we know that minority districts are always targeted. Below are the 16 districts that meet that criteria.

But, I'm not sure that is the RIGHT criteria. Today, for example, I learned that registered Latinos vote at a higher rate in Los Angeles Co than any where else in CA. Now, most Reps in Los Angeles Co are Democrats. So, I don't know what to do about that at the moment, but if I were a thieving GOP operative, L.A. County would be a tempting place to stage a sneak attack on a Dem incumbent because it's in plain sight and the L.A. County Clerk is dirty. Shrug:

Thoughts about that?

Anyway, below are the 16 districts with the most Latinos in CA -- pretty much the Central Valley and Southern CA -- with Thug incumbents, their Dem challenger and below those names, the counties in the district.

(Since McPherson has a list of equipment and such by county, I needed to know the counties.)

Also, we might be able to tell how Debra will do in a district to a certain extent by how the Democrat is doing.

So, which or how many of these races do you think are the important ones?


CA 11 R Richard Pombo Jerry McNerney
San Joaquin
Alameda
Contra Costa
Santa Clara


CA 19 R George Radanovich TJ Cox
Fresno
Madera
Mariposa
Tulare
Tualumne

CA 21 R Devin Nunes Steve Haze
Fresno
Tulare

CA 25 R Howard McKeon Robert Rodriguez
Los Angeles
Mono
Inyo
San Bernadino

CA 26 R David Dreier Cynthia Matthews
Los Angeles
San Bernadino


CA 40 R Edward Royce Florice Hoffman
Orange

CA 41 R Jerry Lewis Louis Contreras
San Bernadino

CA 42 R Gary Miller Mark Hull-Richter
Los Angeles
Orange
San Bernadino

CA 44 R Ken Calvert Louis Venderberg
Orange
Riverside

CA 45 R Mary Bono David Roth
Riverside

CA 46 R Dana Rohrbacher Jim Brandt
Orange

CA 48 R John Campbell Steven Young
Orange

CA 49 R Darrell Issa Jeeni Criscenzo
San Diego
Riverside

CA 50 R Brian Bilbray Francine Busby
San Diego

CA 52 R Duncan Hunter John Rinaldi
Imperial
San Diego

CA 53 D Susan Davis San Diego

* * * *
This is what I used to determine Latino population (Darker the blue, the more Latinos.)




and I compared that to a map of our districts

[mikelgb]

1. well

I live in CD 40 and I am not that inspired by the DEM but of course I will be voting for her. I even tried volunteering on her site but no one ever called me...

[EFerrari]

2. That's really dumb of them.

Geeze, maybe they don't have enough work to do. :sarcasm:

[Amaryllis]

3. KEY race: Bowen and McPherson. Not congresssional but perhaps the most

important race in the country.

[EFerrari]

5. Given. But we can watch these races and get a sense of how

Debra is doing as well. The OP is asking about congressional races. :)

[fooj]

7. ABSOLUTELY key.

[EFerrari]

8. Right. But the idea is to figger out where the thugs will try to

steal what isn't nailed down. That would include, one would think, Debra's race, right?

Where is it easiest for them? Which ones might we usefully monitor and try to get people in the district to be on tap?

[Amaryllis]

11. That's what I was thinkin'. You think those who went after Shelley want

her in office?

[EFerrari]

12. She's their worst nightmare. They have to steal it or she'll

bust them!

[DaveinMD]

4. McNerney

is our best chance for a pickup with maybe Busby behind him. CA isn't likely to see much of a change because of the way they drew their districts.

[EFerrari]

6. Okay. Thanks.

:)

[fooj]

9. Didn't Doolittle get tied to Abramoff recently?

Sounds like he may have some problems...

[EFerrari]

10. I think I did read that in the last couple of days. There's so

much flak flying, it's hard to keep it straight. :crazy:

[nicknameless]

16. How about Doolittle and Pombo's ties to Charles Hurwitz?

http://achangeinthewind.typepad.com/achangeinthewind/2006/01/pombo_on_the_de.html

This weekend, the LA Times reports that Pombo is also under investigation for working with fellow California Republican John Doolittle and Tom DeLay to sabotage an FDIC investigation into the financial dealings of notorious anti-environmentalist Charles Hurwitz. Hurwitz engineered the leveraged buy-out by MAXXAM of Pacific Lumber, which led to the huge logging controversy over the Headwaters redwood forest...

Much more at link

[rumpel]

13. Several

From 2004

San Joaquin - results were smelly - I did a comparison of Boxer votes & Kerry Votes vs. Bill Jones & Bush
this was the one county - where had all the Boxer voters voted for Kerry (ehem) it would have given Kerry the win - but while Boxer won - bush won in this county
a lot of odd coincidences throughout the state - I wish I can post the spreadsheet here from that time -
from my spreadsheet then:
in 2004
dem rep decline to state
42.15% 43.87% 10.52%
so, it is quite close here in terms of split
14% of voters who voted for Boxer did not vote for Kerry
20% more voters voted for bush than Bill Jones

Pombo has, to go - just personal opinion
Alameda, Contra Costa & Santa Clara
in 2004
dem rep decline to state
55.27% 17.82% 21.20%
48.28% 30.44% 17.03%
44.94% 27.94% 22.95%
pretty big margin - can't believe how Pombo got elected in first place....

San Bernandino -
in 2004
dem rep decline to state
38.68% 42.69% 14.24%

Orange quite red anyway - probably not much we can do
in 2004
dem rep decline to state
30.26% 48.42% 17.31%

[EFerrari]

14. Good, thanks. Orange is quite red but when I was trying to

determine which races to focus on (and still am) I noticed that in California, the number of Latinos in an area seemed to roughly correlate with the redness of the district -- except in Los Angeles. But it's wierd because Latinos, especially Mexican Americans, don't vote for for Thugs.

And that suggested two things to me. One, that there must be passive or active voter suppression going on in those districts. And two, that with work, we can make those red districts purple. . .:)

[rumpel]

15. I can check within the incident data

from 2004 to see if I can find something there

I have the entire thing archived - I'll post what I find

[rumpel]

17. Here it is:

There was way more latino intimidation and supression in other states, but here are a few prior incidents (2004)
to watch out for -
Now, perhaps the latino community has a different set of data - since this is from the original voteprotect data
https://voteprotect.org/?jsc=1

34533 California Los Angeles Living Hope Church 10335 Paramount Blvd Downey CA 9:00 am approx 11/2 2004-11-02 09:45:09 PST Non-English lang. assistance problem; Other polling place problem Poll worker tried to challenge voter stating that she was not an active voter. Treated her badly because she spoke Spanish, told her she wasn't allowed to vote even though she was on the rolls. Eventually she convinced them, but not without arguing and feels she was treated poorly because of her race.

36657 California Sacramento 2004-11-02 09:59:42 PST Other Spanish-speaking woman was not allowed to vote.

40350 California San Bernardino Zion Lutheran Church, 15342 Jeraldo Drive 11-2-04 9:00 A.M. 2004-11-02 12:24:00 PST Provisional ballot problem URGENT: Needs immediate attention. This person went to the polling place with sample ballot as proof of registration and ID. Was told wife's name was on rolls, but not his, was told had to vote provisional. Says Spanish-speaking people are being turned away.
40663 California orange trabuco highland apartments clubhouse 31872 joshua drive trabuco canyon 92679 2004-11-02 12:35:03 PST Other polling place problem elderly spanish speaking voter asked question poll worker didn't understan, voter left without pushing the red button. doesn't believe was intentional. apparently, no one spoke english there.

40530 California Santa Clara Howard Residence, 867 East Estates Drive 2004-11-02 12:40:41 PST Non-English lang. assistance problem Her mom speaks spanish only; her county is electronic. Did not have spanish ballots for her mom even though required to do so in California. Poll worker will not let daughter help mom with computer nor with spanish. Poll worker does not speak spanish. Mom was only able to vote for President.

42229 California L.A. County Ujiama Village Apartments 12300 S. Wadsworth Ave. L.A.90061 11/2/2004 approx. 10:05 2004-11-02 13:36:25 PST Non-English lang. assistance problem Lack of communication. The polling place is marked,"Se Habla Espanol". Nobody at the polling place can speak spanish.

46582 California Ventura Rio Rosales School, 2001 Jacinto Ave. 11/2 6pm 2004-11-02 18:36:56 PST Non-English lang. assistance problem FOLLOW-UP NEEDED. Poll workers were telling voters there were no more Spanish language ballots. About 70 people in line, most looked Hispanic. It's a heavily Hispanic population there. Other problems in same precint already reported by caller

50700 California Orange County Maxwell School/ Magnolia and Orange 11/2/04 around 9am 2004-11-02 19:47:38 PST Machine problem Voted electronically and when he reviewed the summary page, his vote for president had been cleared out. However, he was able to correct the problem. He stated that other people at his location were having trouble with the Spanish language machine voting.
36015 California Alameda Spanish Speaking Citizens Foundation, Fruitvale Ave. 11/2/04, 7:15 AM 2004-11-02 09:34:48 PST Voter Intimidation Caller took elderly parents to vote this morning; claims they were harassed for taking too long in the voting booths. Told him about the five limit limit, but also about accommodating elderly and disabled voters.

34533 California Los Angeles Living Hope Church 10335 Paramount Blvd Downey CA 9:00 am approx 11/2 2004-11-02 09:45:09 PST Non-English lang. assistance problem; Other polling place problem Poll worker tried to challenge voter stating that she was not an active voter. Treated her badly because she spoke Spanish, told her she wasn't allowed to vote even though she was on the rolls. Eventually she convinced them, but not without arguing and feels she was treated poorly because of her race. No
36657 California Sacramento 2004-11-02 09:59:42 PST Other Spanish-speaking woman was not allowed to vote.

Just something to look out for -

This is election day -- but prior to election day - registration and polling place problems were numerous

Perhaps we have to check with "Spanish Speaking Citizens Foundation" to see whether they have concerns popping up already.

[EFerrari]

18. And, fwiw, Mexican Americans are much less likely to report

a problem because in our culture it is considered to be extremely rude to complain in public. I'll see if I can check with some Latino Orgs in the a.m.

[rumpel]

19. It is also culturally the same with Asians - n/t

[emlev]

20. Also look at which voting system used where, & who the RoV is

[XemaSab]

21. I think we might be able to pull off CA-19

Radanovich isn't even campaigning, and TJ is out there every day pounding the pavement and talking to voters.

Vote TJ Cox in CA-19! Woooooooo!