Channelling TIA

[BeFree]

From TIA link
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2575883&mesg_id=2575883


In the following posts I will take a stab at reformatting the data which TIA has given us in the thread linked above. The way that DU formats TIA's data makes it sorta hard to read, eh?

I have made every attempt to bring the exact data that TIA has presented to this thread. I have reduced the dates of the *Average polls* to *Early* and *Latest*. Hopefully there are not too many errors in my presentation.

The importance of the data, I believe, is to set a benchmark for determining just how funny the funny numbers we might see on Nov. 8, really are.

This set of data is restricted to 61 House of Representatives races.

[BeFree]

1. Probabilities

Probabilities

Sensitivity Analysis
--------------------

N Probability (Dems win at least N races) WIN SEATS

UVA       50%   55%    60%      67%   75%  of UVA
WIN  41   80    97     99.9     100   100   %
WIN  43   30    71     94       100   100   %
WIN  45    2    15     48        89   100   %

Probability that Democrats win at least N seats:

WIN  41     42    43  44   45  46  47  48.........seats
Prob 99.9   98.8  94  79   48  17   4   0.1......percentage

[BeFree]

2. Arizona and California

Average polls            0% fraud          Final
       Early    Latest    NOV.7     %      w/fraud
Dis   Dem GOP  Dem GOP  Dem GOP    Prob    Dem  GOP 
AZ 1   46 48    46 48   49.6  50.4   34   43.5  56.5
AZ 5   45 48    48 46   51.6  48.4   95   45.6  54.4 
AZ 8   45 37    53 41   56.6  43.4  100   50.9  49.1


Average polls               0% fraud            Final
       Early     Latest     NOV.7        %      w/fraud
Dis   Dem GOP    Dem  GOP    Dem  GOP   Prob    Dem   GOP 
CA 4    46 49    39  39     52.2  47.8    99    46.2  53.8 
CA 11   48 46    48  46     51.6  48.4    95    45.6  54.4 
CA 50   40 54    40  54     43.6  56.4     0    37.2  62.8

[BeFree]

11. California 11

District 11 in California is a race between Publican Richard Pombo and Democrat Jerry McNerney.

Diebold Tsx, as far as is known at this time, is the voting apparatus being used.

There is a DU link about this race here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2581116

[BeFree]

3. Colorado and Conneticut

Average polls                0% fraud          Final
       Early      Latest      NOV.7     %      w/fraud
Dis   Dem GOP  Dem GOP    Dem  GOP    Prob    Dem  GOP 
CO 4  48  45   43   44    50.8  49.2    80    44.7  55.3 
CO 5  38  51   40   47    47.8  52.2     1    41.6  58.4
CO 7  51  46   54   38    58.8  41.2   100    53.3  46.7


Average polls             0% fraud           Final
       Early     Latest    NOV.7      %      w/fraud
Dis   Dem GOP   Dem GOP   Dem GOP     Prob   Dem GOP 
CT 2   51  45   48  47   51.0  49.0    85    45.0  55.0 
CT 4   42  52   51  44   54.0  46.0   100    48.2  51.8 
CT 5   51  43   46  43   52.6  47.4   100    46.7  53.3 

[BeFree]

4. Florida, Indiana and Illinois

 Average polls             0% fraud              Final
        Early    Latest      NOV.7      %       w/fraud
Dis    Dem  GOP  Dem GOP    Dem GOP   Prob     Dem GOP 
FL 13    49 47   49  47   51.4  48.6   93     45.4  54.6 
FL 16    48 41   48  41   54.6  45.4  100     48.8  51.2 
FL 22    50 48   50  48   51.2  48.8   89     45.2  54.8 
FL 24    43 45   43  45   50.2  49.8   58     44.1  55.9 


 Average polls           0% fraud          Final
      Early     Latest   NOV.7      %     w/fraud
Dis    Dem GOP Dem GOP  Dem  GOP   Prob   Dem  GOP 
ID 1   37  39  38  34   54.8 45.2  100    49  51



 Average polls              0% fraud             Final
         Early    Latest      NOV.7      %      w/fraud
Dis    Dem GOP   Dem GOP    Dem   GOP   Prob    Dem GOP 
IL 10   48  46   48   46   51.6   48.4    95   45.6 54.4 
IL 14   42  52   42   52   45.6   54.4    0    39.3 60.7 
IL 19   36  53   36   53   42.6   57.4    0    36.2 63.8
IL 6    48  47   54   40   57.6   42.4   100   52.0 48.0

[BeFree]

5. Indiana, Iowa and Kentucky

 Average polls                 0% fraud          Final
         Early       Latest    NOV.7      %     w/fraud
Dis     Dem GOP   Dem GOP     Dem GOP   Prob   Dem  GOP 
IN 2     48  45    52  43    55.0  45.0  100   49.2 50.8 
IN 8     53  43    53  43    55.4  44.6  100   49.7 50.3
IN 9     51  43    51  43    54.6  45.4  100   48.8 51.2 



 Average polls            0% fraud          Final
       Early   Latest     NOV.7        %    w/fraud
Dis   Dem GOP  Dem GOP   Dem  GOP    Prob    Dem  GOP 
IA 1   48  50   49  42   54.4  45.6  100    48.6 51.4 
IA 2   48  47   48  47   51.0  49.0   85    45.0 55.0 



 Average polls               0% fraud           Final
       Early     Latest      NOV.7       %      w/fraud
Dis    Dem  GOP   Dem GOP   Dem  GOP   Prob   Dem  GOP 
KY 3   52   46    52  44   54.4  45.6  100   48.6  51.4
KY 4   50   46    45  42   52.8  47.2  10    46.9  53.1 

[BeFree]

6. Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire

 Average polls            0% fraud            Final
      Early     Latest     NOV.7      %       w/fraud
Dis   Dem GOP   Dem GOP   Dem  GOP    Prob     Dem  GOP 
MN 1  47   50   47   50   48.8  51.2    11    42.6  57.4
MN 2  42   50   42   50   46.8  53.2    0     40.5  59.5
MN 6  47   48   42   52   45.6  54.4    0     39.3  60.7



 Average polls          0% fraud           Final
         Early  Latest    NOV.7     %     w/fraud
Dis   Dem GOP  Dem GOP  Dem GOP    Prob   Dem  GOP 
NV 3   44 51   39 46    48.0 52.0    2    41.8  58.2



 Average polls              0% fraud           Final
       Early       Latest    NOV.7     %      w/fraud
Dis    Dem GOP  Dem GOP    Dem  GOP   Prob    Dem   GOP 
NH 1   37  49    42 47    48.6  51.4    7     42.4  57.6
NH 2   50  47    45 37    55.8  44.2  100     50.1  49.9

[BeFree]

7. New Jersey, New Mexico, New York and North Carolina

 Average polls             0% fraud            Final
         Early     Latest    NOV.7       %     w/fraud
Dis   Dem  GOP    Dem GOP   Dem  GOP    Prob  Dem  GOP 
NJ 7   43  46     43  46    49.6  50.4   34   43.5  56.5



 Average polls            0% fraud            Final
       Early    Latest     NOV.7     %       w/fraud
Dis   Dem GOP  Dem GOP  Dem   GOP   Prob    Dem  GOP 
NM 1   45 42    53 44   54.8  45.2  100     49.0 51.0 


 Average polls                 0% fraud             Final
       Early       Latest      NOV.7       %       w/fraud
Dis     Dem GOP    Dem GOP   Dem   GOP   Prob    Dem   GOP 
 NY 3    44  51    44  51    47.0  53.0     0    40.7 59.3
 NY 19   49  47    49  47    51.4  48.6    93    45.4 54.6 
 NY 20   53  42    53  42    56.0  44.0   100    50.3 49.7
 NY 24   53  42    53  42    56.0  44.0   100    50.3 49.7
 NY 26   46  49    53  44    54.8  45.2   100    49.0 51.0 
 NY 29   43  42    53  42    56.0  44.0   100    50.3 49.7



 Average polls               0% fraud             Final
       Early     Latest       NOV.7      %       w/fraud
Dis    Dem GOP    Dem GOP    Dem   GOP   Prob    Dem   GOP 
NC 8   48  44     48  44     52.8  47.2   100    46.9  53.1 
NC 11  53  44     48  43     53.4  46.6   100    47.5  52.5 

[BeFree]

8. Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Texas

 Average polls              0% fraud              Final
       Early     Latest      NOV.7        %       w/fraud
Dis   Dem GOP    Dem GOP    Dem   GOP   Prob      Dem  GOP 
OH 1   46  48    48   46    51.6   48.4   95     45.6  54.4 
OH 2   46  51    48   45    52.2   47.8   99     46.2  53.8 
OH 6   64  32    64   32    66.4   33.6  100     61.7  38.3
OH 15  53  41    53   41    56.6   43.4  100     50.9  49.1
OH 18  48  41    53   33    61.4   38.6  100     56.2  43.8


 Average polls         0% fraud             Final
         Early  Latest   NOV.7      %       w/fraud
Dis  Dem GOP  Dem GOP  Dem   GOP   Prob     Dem  GOP 
OK 5  33 62    33 62   36.0  64.0    0      29.4 70.6



 Average polls             0% fraud             Final
       Early    Latest      NOV.7       %       w/fraud
Dis    Dem GOP  Dem GOP     Dem  GOP    Prob    Dem   GOP 
PA 4   47  51    48 46     51.6  48.4    95     45.6  54.4 
PA 6   51  46    49 44     53.2  46.8   100     47.3  52.7 
PA 7   52  44    50 43     54.2  45.8   100     48.4  51.6 
PA 8   50  47    46 41     53.8  46.2   100     47.9  52.1 
PA 10  48  39    47 38     56.0  44.0   100     50.3  49.7



 Average polls             0% fraud            Final
         Early    Latest    NOV.7     %       w/fraud
Dis    Dem GOP   Dem GOP   Dem  GOP   Prob    Dem  GOP 
TX 22  na na na   36  28  57.6  42.4  100    52.0  48.0

[BeFree]

9. Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin

 Average polls           0% fraud             Final
       Early     Latest   NOV.7       %       w/fraud
Dis    Dem GOP  Dem GOP   Dem  GOP   Prob    Dem  GOP 
VA 2   50  45   43  51   46.6  53.4    0    40.3  59.7
VA 5   40  56   40  56   42.4  57.6    0    36.0  64.0
VA 10  42  47   42  47   48.6  51.4    7    42.4  57.6



 Average polls           0% fraud             Final
       Early   Latest     NOV.7       %       w/fraud
Dis   Dem GOP  Dem GOP   Dem   GOP   Prob    Dem  GOP 
WA 8  49  47    45 51    47.4  52.6    0     41.2  58.8



 Average polls           0% fraud             Final
       Early     Latest    NOV.7      %       w/fraud
Dis    Dem GOP  Dem GOP  Dem    GOP   Prob    Dem    GOP 
WI 8   51   45   51  45   53.4  46.6  100     47.5  52.5 

[BeFree]

10. All done, thanks TIA!

If you want to copy and paste any of the various state numbers to another DU thread (say in the individual state forums) make sure you click the box for using PLAIN TEXT. I have copied and pasted in this format on DU and it carries well from one page to the other.

I left out TIA's reflection on whether the state could be switched or not. Look over the numbers to decide whether a race can be easily switched.

What else? You tell me. I hope this is of some benefit to y'all.

To TIA: We are with you all the way.

[PATRICK]

12. delete/duplicate post

n/t

[PATRICK]

13. A BIG question

Even with fraud Mass(NY-29)was a win prediction. I believe the poll used for this analysis was a post-Foley bounce that evaporated or was overcome by GOP GOTV. Even so, talking to the Massa people on election day they seemed to have no such rosy expectation and did not know of TIA from Adam. Luckily they are going over the vote with a tooth-comb, because frankly, Kuhl and Cheney are not exactly honest.

We have till Monday before the state allows paper ballots to be counted. About 9000 left of 200,000 votes overall with the lead officially showing that getting about 2/3 of the last ballots would sew it up for Massa- which in itself seems unlikely.

Any real suggestions for the campaign? NY is not fertile ground for wholesale fraud so if there was some crucial chipping that still means the TIA projection turned out to be inaccurate- I think because the GOP tightened the race with forgetfulness and a robocalling slime fest that worked better here because the main constituency is still Republican.

I note that with the exception of Arcuri who deeply wronged by Meier this whole GOP bloated gerrymander rolled back to elect GOP candidates locally. What IS significant is that the manner they won has cost them in the depth of that loyalty and the erosion may continue with all their DC power humbled until the next Dem wave where another great effort may just do the trick for the Unholy Three.

[PATRICK]

14. A Big question NY-29

Still unconceded.

Even with fraud Mass(NY-29)was a win prediction. I believe the poll used for this analysis was a post-Foley bounce that evaporated or was overcome by GOP GOTV. Even so, talking to the Massa people on election day they seemed to have no such rosy expectation and did not know of TIA from Adam. Luckily they are going over the vote with a tooth-comb, because frankly, Kuhl and Cheney are not exactly honest.

We have till Monday before the state allows paper ballots to be counted. About 9000 left of 200,000 votes overall with the lead officially showing that getting about 2/3 of the last ballots would sew it up for Massa- which in itself seems unlikely.

Any real suggestions for the campaign? NY is not fertile ground for wholesale fraud so if there was some crucial chipping that still means the TIA projection turned out to be inaccurate- I think because the GOP tightened the race with forgetfulness and a robocalling slime fest that worked better here because the main constituency is still Republican.

I note that with the exception of Arcuri who deeply wronged by Meier this whole GOP bloated gerrymander rolled back to elect GOP candidates locally. What IS significant is that the manner they won has cost them in the depth of that loyalty and the erosion may continue with all their DC power humbled until the next Dem wave where another great effort may just do the trick for the Unholy Three.

[Febble]

15. Is he OK?

I haven't seen a post from him since Saturday. I'm a bit worried.