TruthIsAll/Autorank: Virginia & Montana Explained - Fraud Model Works

[autorank]

WONDERING WHAT HAPPENED IN VIRGINIA AND MONTANA. SEE THE
SUMMARY TABLE BELOW FOR SENATE EXIT POLLS. Our candidates
kicked ass and as per the 7:00 pm Exit Polls, they were
leading substantially.  This is confirmation that we had a
great year and reason to look very clsely at the final outocme
for these two races.  This is part of an effort begun prior to
the election to target high fraud-likely races (see msg 1
below).  There will be a post later today on the overal model
and what it has to offer for those 13 "undecided
races."

==================================
TruthIsAll:

Which senate races deviated the most from the 
pre-election and 7pm exit poll to the recorded vote? 

Virginia and Montana, the elections which were
"too close to call" for hours after the polls
closed.

Here are the probabilities:
Dev: Discrepancy between Democratic 7pm Exit poll
vote share and the recorded vote share.
Prob: Probability of discrepancy

.. Dev Prob
MT 4% 1.61e-04 or 1 in 6,196 
VA 3% 3.37e-03 or 1 in 297 

As usual, the Final Exit Poll was MATCHED to the RECORDED
vote.

Please don't ask WHY. 
It's par for the course.
Edison-Mitofsky always assume ZERO fraud.
Remember 2004? It's deja vu all over again.

Only this time, everyone was watching.

So which exit poll do you believe, the 7pm or the Final?

	Pre-elect	2-ptyProj	7pmExit	         FinalExit	FinalVote	
Avg	46.4	45.6	52.5	47.5	53.0	45.9	52.5	46.4	52.3	46.5
	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP
MT	48.0	47.0	51.0	49.0	53	46	50.0	47.5	49	48
MO*	47.8	46.2	51.4	48.6	50	48	48.8	47.7	50	47
OH	51.0	43.3	54.4	45.6	57	43	56.0	44.0	56	44
PA	52.3	40.8	56.4	43.6	57	42	59.0	41.0	59	41

RI	48.3	40.5	55.0	45.0	53	46	53.8	46.2	53	47
TN	43.0	51.5	46.3	53.7	48	51	48.1	50.9	48	51
VA*	46.4	45.8	51.1	48.9	53	46	50.1	49.9	50	49
NJ	48.0	42.0	54.0	46.0	53	45	54.2	43.9	53	45

Dev1: Discrepancy from the 7pm Exit Poll to the vote.
Dev2: Discrepancy from the Final Exit Poll to the vote.
Dev3: Dev2-Dev1
Prob: Probability of discrepancy between Democratic 7pm Exit
poll
vote share and the recorded vote.



	Dev1	Dev2	Dev3	MoE	>MoE	Prob	       1 in
MT*	6.0	1.5	-4.5	2.18%	yes	1.61E-04	6,196
MO	-1.0	-1.9	-0.9	1.92%		5.00E-01	2
OH	2.0	0.0	-2.0	2.04%		1.68E-01	6
PA	-3.0	0.0	3.0	1.97%		9.77E-01	1

RI	1.0	1.6	0.6	2.86%		5.00E-01	2
TN	0.0	0.2	0.2	1.95%		5.00E-01	2
VA*	6.0	-0.8	-6.8	2.17%	yes	3.37E-03	297
NJ	0.0	2.3	2.3	2.18%		5.00E-01	2

[autorank]

1. TruthIsAll Vote Fraud Model

”SCOOP” Independent News

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0611/S00119.htm
PROTECTING THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE: Part 3
A Formula for Catching Election Fraud
Democrats Should Take Up To 40 House Seats And 6 In The Senate

Michael Collins and TruthIsAll
“Scoop” Independent News
Washington, DC
Part 1 (10/26) - Part 2 (10/31)

VOTE FRAUD MODEL – TruthIsAll

• Determine the level of fraud required to reverse the true vote (assumed equal to the final poll)
• The level of fraud is based on two components: uncounted votes and switched votes.
• Approximately 3% of total votes cast are never counted (lost, stolen, residual ballots)
• The majority of uncounted ballots are located in minority districts.



Applying this model to the probable – possible wins by the Democrats against incumbent Republicans (see chart below) 14 likely wins emerge outside of the fraud margin, but 27 seats remain within the Margin of Fraud as defined above. These require careful monitoring and analysis. They are critical targets if the plan unfolds to keep the House at any cost.



This table represents the races to watch, target for support and monitor post election. Every win on the right side of the blue line is a victory for the Democrats and more importantly for democracy. Holding fair elections isn’t that complicated. As a result, any meltdowns, supply shortages, switched votes, voter intimidation, etc. etc., take place in these districts need to be questioned and examined thoroughly.

[AtLiberty]

11. Check out IL 06...

The Dem with a 100 percent win probability "lost" by 2 percent!

The Daily Herald's headline read, "(DuPage) GOP Bucks National Trend."

Indeed.

[MADem]

2. Fascinating. They wanted to cheat, they tried to cheat, but they couldn't get away with it quite so

easily this time. But they're still trying, aren't they....

[autorank]

3. Still trying after al these years!!!

To much awareness, to many eyes. If you noticed the Dcmocrats who were least likely to give this issue much thought, Stenny Hoywer, D, MD and Chris Dodd,D,CT both made extraordinary efforts to let the Republicans know that they knew, imho. Hoyer made a major proposal for House election contests and Dodd made a big push for emergency paper ballots. Both efforts, which were never going to pass, sent the message clearly:

"WE KNOW"

At least that's one of the things that I think happened. Doubt they'll come out and say this but who knows;)

[adamuu]

10. we had enough independant turnout to break the system

Roves "math" was just a little off.
expect this again in 2008
we know what to look for.

[Joe Chi Minh]

28. I hope you don't have to expect it in 2008. I mean I hope they get

to the bottom of all this election villainy and set up a proper, clearly understandable paper-ballot system, (like the rest of the known world), conducted by civil servants; with totally secure custody throughout the whole chain, closely monitored.

Suspected fraudsters and vote suppressors should be required to prove their innnocence - starting with rogue police forces - and punishments should be draconian. All of this until such day as your electoral process stabilises in normality i.e. honesty.

[cui bono]

4. What time zone is that referring to? n/t

[autorank]

24. 7:00 pm - close of polls in each state. It's local time 7:00 pm.

Thanks for asking.

[stellanoir]

5. 1st rec

and it figures.

[Boo Boo]

6. Yeah, I thought about the model while watching the VA election on T.V.

I figured Webb ought to be about 3 pts higher that he was. There was an opinion poll put out just prior to the election that had Webb up 4 pts., he led in 9 polls, was virtually tied in two, he had momentum, and the undecided should mostly have gone to him. I definitely didn't expect it to be as close as it was.


edit: said "independents," meant to say "undecided."

[autorank]

7. I was thinking about it too...

The 7pm exit matches nicely with the Kaine's margin over Kilgore in 2005.

Kaine + Potts was about 53 and Kilgore was at 46. Potts is a liberal Republican who ran as a protest against Kilgore, a right winger of the Falwell persuasion.

VA is less thrilled with Right Wing extremist candidates like Kilgore. Allen is the personification of this and I seriously doubt that Allen did as well as claimed in Northern Virginia.

The story will continue. After all, this is the state of Jefferson, Henry, madison, etc. Can't be fooling around with elections here. Not allowed;)

[Awsi Dooger]

36. Come on, Virginia doesn't vote 46% Republican in a federal race

You can't compare an open gov race to a high intensity senate race involving a GOP incumbent, a race that was isolated as pivotal to chamber control.

You have to retreat to the Perot-influenced races of '92 and '96 to find a Republican below Allen's 48% in a federal race in Virginia. Those numbers were 45 and 47 even though Perot took 18 and 9 percent nationally. Normally it's 52-53% toward the Republican. The state is trending our way but it's a slow steady crawl. Make no mistake, at base instinct the state still votes 3-4 points toward the GOP, all things being equal, in a federal race. Luckily, Allen and the national environment made it unequal.

This cycle always set up as a moving bar of several points from standard, producing very tight races. I always feared we would fall just short, especially in the high profile senate races in red territory. So far it's more relief than thrill that we got over the top, although I'm trying to exhaust that. This forum would be 5 pages per day of new threads if a few thousand votes had differed on Tuesday.

[BillORightsMan]

14. Bingo!

I noticed this too, Boo Boo.

Perhaps that's why Macaca errrr ummm ALLEN was so cheery during his concession speech
and didn't want (demand?) a recount :crazy: I don't buy the "I wanted to save the taxpayers money" crap being sincere one minute.

Oh and there's that thing about running for prez in 2008...

:patriot:

[mcg]

27. His "advisor" (read - legal councel) told him to concede,

his "advisor" told him something like "You're in enough
hot water as it is, don't make it harder on yourself."

[Zodiak]

8. I looked at all of the early exit polls released on Tues

Forgot who released them (it wasn't the AP), and when the results were in, they were all shifted about 3% to the Repukes. We still won most of them since the exit polls were as much as an 8% difference, but I noted it.

Now we see some more evidence determined statistically.

I think the pukes can shave 3-5% from us in any race through voter intimidation, caging, switched votes, etc. They are trying to play within the standard error or just outside of it. But we overwhelmed them.

Even though we won this election, we should still look over the votes with a fine-toothed comb and do REAL election reform in this country. The unifying principle should be as many people get to vote as wish to vote, and we should accept no less.

Thanks for all of the hard work. I will be reading every installment posted here.

[autorank]

20. Thanks for keeping informed, an honor to provide the information

and occasional opinion;)

The exits were again a quandry. The 7 pm's showed Dem wins. Those are the ones that count since they are unlike the finals. The finals, by policy of the pollsters, presume that the vote count is accurate and are adjusted to reach those percentages. Wackky isn't it? It's not a poll in the final form.

Keep on reading, questioning, etc. This is the big show, ultimately, the right of to vote freely and, combined with federally funded campaigns, the right to decide without all the noise.

[Febble]

39. See my post 26

for the Senate races deviations (from cross-tabs downloaded at close of poll by OTOH)

[Jeffersons Ghost]

9. K&R EXCELLENT PRECISE RESEARCH AUTO! EXACTLY WHAT I'VE COME TO EXPECT FROM YOU!

Meticulous detail as usual! NOBODY DOES IT BETTER! I challenge anyone to find factual (not grammatical) errors in your OPs. We each have our strengths. Wouldn't DU be a dull place if we were all the same or even very similar like certain dull-witted lock-steppers at sites, which I will not name?

[OnTheOtherHand]

41. OK, the Virginia exit poll number is wrong

Maybe TIA has fixed this somewhere by now -- I don't know.

The 7:00 tab had Allen up 53-46 among males, Webb up 56-43 among females. Based on that tab, it was Webb +3, not +7.

That's the one number that seems way off, although I haven't checked.

[Gelliebeans]

12. Another Excellent Analysis K&R

[file83]

13. Math doesn't lie.

In statistics, these fraud numbers are called "outliers". That is, they are statistical anomolies. The odds of the only "too close to call" votes that shouldn't have been "too close to call" are obviously very high in this case.

It means something "unnatural" occured.

[autorank]

21. "...something 'unnatural' occurred." Perfect.!!! n/t

[Febble]

26. But it can be selective

Here are the deviations between the exit poll margin and the
recorded vote margin (as of yesterday) for the Senate races,
according to downloads of the close-of-poll exit poll
crosstabs by OTOH (close-of-poll crosstabs are not - because
they can't be - adjusted to the incoming returns):


Maine	       -12.6%
Massachusetts	-8.1%
Minnesota	-7.6%
Connecticut	-6.7%
Montana	        -6.5%
Wyoming	        -5.2%
Arizona	        -4.7%
Washington	-4.7%
Ohio	        -4.2%
Utah	        -3.8%
Florida	        -3.8%
California	-3.2%
Virginia	-2.7%
New York	-2.7%
Nevada	        -2.4%
Wisconsin	-2.1%
Texas	        -1.6%
West Virginia	-1.5%
Vermont	        -0.9%
Missouri	 0.0%
Hawaii	         0.4%
Tennessee	 0.8%
Rhode Island	 1.0%
Pennsylvania	 1.4%
Michigan	 1.4%
Maryland	 2.9%
New Jersey	 3.4%
New Mexico	 4.1%
Nebraska	 7.7%



A negative value means that the discrepancy was a
"shift" in the vote count (relative to the exit
poll) in favour of the Republicans; a positive value means a
"shift" in the vote count in favour of the
Democrats.

According to my calcs, there are no outliers (the distribution
is not significantly different from normal on either
Kolmogorov Smirnoff test or Shapiro Wilk, nor is there any
significant skew or kurtosis) but the mean is significantly
less than zero - i.e. there was a significant
"red-shift" (1 in 92 probability of having occurred
by chance).  This does not, however necessarily imply fraud -
it may also reflect pro-Democratic bias in the poll.

But if these numbers are right, it is clear from this that
there is nothing especially anomalous about Montana and
Virginia.  Looks like you would be better checking out Maine
(or perhaps pro-Democrat fraud in Nebraska....?)

But better still, check out 

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=457470&mesg_id=457470

and, of course, good old voter suppression in Virginia.

And great job winning both Houses!  Now you can get some real
Election Reform, and fraud investigation.  Just make sure you
are really looking in the right places!

Cheers

Lizzie

[Awsi Dooger]

37. Those dirty cornhuskers

Thanks for the breakdown, Febble. I focused on exits only in the pivotal races but had the impression there was widespread and significant redshift again. I don't see how the reluctant red responder aspect can be denied at this point.

Nine of the ten largest discrepancies are redshift and not blueshift.

And at first glance I don't recognize the states at either extreme as DRE states.

I'll be interested in OTOH's work, and what Lenski has to say, if anything.

Where the hell is the Freeman group with their House exit polling?

[Febble]

38. Well, it's a small number of races

but it's interesting that the distribution is normal - compatible with a pervasive factor (whether fraud or bias) rather than a discrete factor only operating in selected states. If we take absolute deviation from zero as criterion for suspicion, if we regard Montana as suspicious, then suspicion should also fall on Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Connecticut, as well as pro-Democratic fraud in Nebraska. If we regard Virginia as suspicious (not sure where TIA got his Virginia number) then, as well as suspecting pro-Republican fraud in Wyoming, Arizona, Washington, Ohio, Utah, Florida and California, we should suspect pro-Democratic fraud in Maryland, New Jersey and New Mexico.

Alternatively we posit either pervasive fraud, or pervasive bias.

But, either way, the exit poll give very little, if any, indication of where to sensibly look for fraud. But there was almost certainly voter-suppression fraud in Virginia, and I'd like to know about those undervotes in certain Florida counties.

[OnTheOtherHand]

42. I've been busy with FL-13

where the numbers are actually nasty.

The numbers Febble posted are still my election-night first cuts, except that I looked more closely at VA, MT, and I think MO to make sure those were close. Because of rounding, the apparent margins can vary by a couple of points depending on which table you look at. A colleague expressed the intention of cleaning up the estimates (and it would be fun if the NEP released the Best Geos, just so we can all play with the same numbers). These numbers don't point to fraud. They don't even point away from fraud, at least at this level of aggregation. They mostly sit there and shrug. Second verse, same as the first, but maybe a little bit softer this time.

"Where the hell is the Freeman group with their House exit polling?"

I can't answer that question, but read this as you will. Frankly, it never crossed my mind that the EDA model was for a few people to hole up in a room and emerge at some unspecified future date to tell us what they think. Of course if they are trying to look at the entire country at once, that takes a while.

[papau]

40. You beat me to it - great post - the fact that the GOP stuffed ballot boxes in

1960, tossing boxes with Dem votes, in effect switching votes to Nixon in Illinois (I was there and the ballot box recovery was recorded in the Waukegan NewsSun newspaper report of the police blog report of ballot box recoveries in the spring of 61 when the floods brought the boxes to notice before they had had time to dissolve) does not mean they are at it again.

GOP fraud outside of Ohio, New Mexico, and Florida seems to be rather isolated.

However, GOP vote suppression is everywhere. Indeed that is GOP official policy - called by them "protecting the integrity of the vote".

In any case the variance distribution did seem near "normal".

But just to be sure I wish we had the exit polls that were done by others - indeed polls done by others was how we found the New Mexico/hispanic games played by the GOP in 04.

Meanwhile I am still amazed by the shear stupidity of the vote theft in the Sarasota district in Florida that appears headed for a recount (but what do you recount?) of the touch-screen voting machines where more than 18,000 county voters who marked other races didn't have a vote register in the House race. Of course the GOP win must be certified by November 20th - and I am not betting against the GOP being upheld - so maybe it was not so stupid, after all :-( .

[msedano]

15. sneak one here, sneak one there, but in the end

the hard light of accountability would not allow "them" to steal more than a few handsful. i'm surprised none of the elections came up with a bullett through a plate glass window. remember rove's earliest successes? candidate trails, some unknown pendejo puts a round thru the candidate's living room window, presto, sympathy votes. repiglican wins.

recommended, and thanx for the number.s.

[autorank]

22. Hey buddy, nice work out there except for you know who..

Maybe hell just deflate into a big puddle some day. Deborah Bowen, the new Secretary of State is a huge win for CA.

How was the voter suppression? Many get turned away for not having ID's?

[autorank]

23. Hey buddy, nice work out there except for you know who..

Maybe hell just deflate into a big puddle some day. Deborah Bowen, the new Secretary of State is a huge win for CA.

How was the voter suppression? Many get turned away for not having ID's?

[msedano]

35. no i.d. required around here

but then, this isn't temple city. when i got out of the army in 70, my first residence was that bastion of anglo gop supremacy. my named got wiped off the rolls once and after that i wised up and wore white face to the polls. here in pasadena i get a smile and a ballot. otoh, a friend's sister down in orange county had a shitload of trouble voting democrat. the machine kept blanking out when she pushed the button of her choice. up north, pombo got the ax, how nice. my green vote against adam schiff showed up with 2% of my fellow voters. arnie wants to replace barbara boxer. all i can say is remember nixon? you won't have nixon to kick around anymore nixon? he thought he had the gubernatorial election wrapped up tighter than a pumpkin. it can happen to arnie, too.

[JudyM]

16. It'd be great if congress held hearings on these statistical anomalies. nt

[autorank]

18. I have confidence that CHAIRMAN Conyers will do so.

Won't that be the day:)

[rosesaylavee]

25. I will enjoy that

and also very much enjoy watching him chair a meeting in a legitimate meeting space and not in the basement.

One additional reason I think the Rove plan failed were reports early in the day that voters were showing up at their precincts with video cameras and videoing anything out of the ordinary and then uploading it to YouTube once they got home. I think the voters were quite intimidating to would-be vote-stealers...

Thank you for all you have done to inform us about election fraud, AR!

K & R and Bookmark.

[w4rma]

17. I would really like to see a district by district breakdown comparing

black box voting machine districts with paper ballot districts. Exit polls and results.

[autorank]

19. Here's a landmark study for you from none other than Land Shark

http://electionfraudnews.com/LegDoc/SnohomishInvestigation.pdf

While you're there, check out my web site www.electionfraudnews.com

The study would show an advantage for Republicans in touch screen areas I suspect.

There are some like form prior elections. There will be some from this electoin too.

[understandinglife]

29. A related document prepared by a couple of DUers ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=208547

Served also to provide me the opportunity to meet Paul and others - something I treasure.

Good morning Mike :hi:


BE AMERICA. ---

[Jeffersons Ghost]

30. I'm about to link ALL this info back onto the Greatest page...

[understandinglife]

34. Thank you.

NOT ONE LINE OF SOFTWARE BETWEEN A VOTER AND A VALID ELECTION

[janetle]

31. Wow! This is fascinating.

I wonder how much Conrad knew about this?!

[In Truth We Trust]

32. K&R Hand Counted Paper Ballots NOW!!! InTuthisall We Trust AutoRank Rocks, Landshark Rules!

Thank you very very much gentlemen!

[mom cat]

33. Thanks for posting this!