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CA 50 EXIT POLL ESTIMATES 6-POINT DISTORTION ENABLED BY REGISTRAR’S ABUSE OF DISCRETION

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kpete Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 07:16 PM
Original message
CA 50 EXIT POLL ESTIMATES 6-POINT DISTORTION ENABLED BY REGISTRAR’S ABUSE OF DISCRETION
Edited on Fri Nov-10-06 07:33 PM by kpete
Land Shark's Intro Comment:

Here in San Diego County, in the 50th Congressional District Busby/Bilbray race, based on the Zogby exit poll we had performed, one of the following two very bad things MUST be true, logically:

(1) EITHER there is a very large discrepancy in the Zogby exit poll vs posted results so far, which means a suspicious election or a defective poll, and 95% of Zogby's polls are within 1% of actual result, OR ELSE

(2) in light of the 180,000 ballots still to be counted in San Diego County, an unknown percentage of which are from the 50th, the race will tighten up considerably over results reported so far, consistent with Zogby exit poll data suggesting that Democrats disproportionately chose paper ballots and Republicans disproportionately chose electronic ballots.(the main point of my press release)

This second option reveals the "SECOND CLASS BALLOTING SYSTEM" where paper balloters are dealt second class service that doesn't get counted or considered by media headines in the days following the election because as a matter of policy counting doesn't even get started until Thursday. Ken Simpkins and I had the pleasure of filing peremptory writs on election day and the day after in order to try to force the registrar Haas to treat all ballots, electronic or paper equally thanks to Kpete's decision to object to Haas's attempt to create second class citizens in our democracy.

As further evidence of Haas committment to nontransparency, Haas also refuses to hit the "print" button to give precinct breakdowns, nor post the same on the website, so everything gets tossed into the same bucket again, making tracking either difficult or impossible.



CA 50 EXIT POLL ESTIMATES 6-POINT DISTORTION ENABLED BY REGISTRAR’S ABUSE OF DISCRETION

Haas’ Decision To Delay Paper Ballot Count
Artificially Inflates Votes For Republican

November 10, 2006 San Diego, CA – Attorney Paul Lehto, a national expert on election integrity, today released the results of an independent Zogby exit poll of voters in the November 7 election in California’s 50th District. The exit poll shows the race much tighter than the results published by the San Diego Registrar of Voters as of the day after the election, six percentage points closer. Moreover, after adjustment for an oversampling of Bilbray voters, the adjusted poll shows Democrat Francine Busby well within the margin of error, making the race uncertain in actual outcome. Paper based votes yet to be counted favor Francine Busby, such as paper ballots obtained at the polls, which constitute 6.4% of all voters and favor Busby 58% to 39%.

The poll also contains important findings about the relationship between different forms of voting and voter demographics, revealing a tendency for Democrats to use paper ballots versus other forms of voting such as electronic machines. In violation of state and federal law, and despite lawsuits filed to stop the process, San Diego Registrar of Voters Mikel Haas delayed the paper ballot count for paper ballots obtained at the polls by fully qualified voters, preferring to have other forms of ballots have been counted preferentially first, attempting to justify this second class service to paper-based voters by stating “this is an electronic election” when in fact the public is legally allowed a choice of either technology.


In a midterm election marked by concerns about the security and integrity of electronic voting, the delay essentially eliminates paper ballots from the early results typically publicized on election night, and thus eliminates Democratic votes from the consideration of what the election means for candidates, for the public, and for the perceived competitiveness of districts for several news cycles if not permanently, and therefore leads to distorted news headlines and interpretations. This can only be avoided if the media realizes that in situations where choices of voting technology are available, it is becoming increasingly common for voters of different parties to prefer different technologies.

According to Lehto, “Mr. Haas’ abuse of discretion stems from the current nationwide bias by election officials toward electronic voting which, in San Diego’s case, skewed election day results toward the Republican candidate. The resulting bias in media coverage caused irreparable harm to the other candidates. This preference flies in the face of serving actual voters, which the Zogby poll establishes that over 80% of them prefer a voting system based on the ability of the public to witness and observe vote counting (like paper balloting) and not one based on invisible electrons and trade secrecy (touch screen voting). Delaying the count for one class of voters that’s more Democratic but not for another class that’s more Republican also creates 'second class ballots' and 'second class voters' who don’t get considered by the media and politicians on election night and the day after, which is outrageous and unconstitutional. It is very clear in the law that each voter is entitled to 'equal dignity' under the Constitution.”

Given the deep mistrust of electronic voting by people across the country, the Registrar’s office had ample reason to anticipate that many San Diego voters would reject electronic voting. In fact, the exit poll shows that 12.7% either had a problem in voting or know someone who did, a very high percentage for what should be a simple process that’s been practiced for centuries. In fact, media coverage before the election cited Haas’ admission that an insufficient number of absentee ballots were printed. Poll worker training was reportedly focused on electronic voting, and Haas imposed an arbitrary limit on the number of paper ballots available, despite widespread reports of problems due to problems with electronic voting machines. In other jurisdictions, such as Maryland, problems with Diebold voting systems created chaos during the September 12 primary and led the governor to push to scrap electronic voting.

In a related development, a petition which names Haas as respondent, alleges violations of due process and equal rights in voting in a case called Peterson v. Haas. (Ed Note: Details on that complaint here and here.) By limiting the number of paper ballots available and delaying the count of paper ballots, Haas violated requirements issued by Secretary of State Bruce McPherson. McPherson had issued a letter on October 3 to all county registrars which provides that all county officials shall have an adequate supply of paper ballots, available at the voting locations for use in the event of a loss of the ability to use electronic equipment, or if a voter chooses not to vote on electronic equipment. Haas failed to do so even after clear evidence of failure presented itself, preferring instead to “transfer” votes from photocopies to official ballots after being voted by voters, a process voters certainly never agreed to, and which violates laws preventing third parties from assisting voters with voting unless necessary. It is unknown how many mistakes or intentional errors were made in transferring the voters’ votes onto new ballots.

## END ##
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=3772
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kansasblue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 07:21 PM
Response to Original message
1. Busby we tried to educate you. I hope you fight this time.
Edited on Fri Nov-10-06 07:21 PM by kansasblue
Cuz if you can't win on your second try with this landslide.... don't run again.

If you are going to let them screw you twice.... we'll send a fighter next time.

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BradBlog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 07:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. So far, so good...Three Cheers for Busby...

(Or should we have given two cheers, and waited until Thursday to count the third?...)

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=3765

Brad
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robinlynne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-11-06 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #1
23. She learned her lesson! She wants very vote counted. Win or lose, we should
be supporting her!
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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 07:27 PM
Response to Original message
2. Busby has not conceded; def'ly waiting for EVERYVOTE to be counted!
SO, the harsher criticisms are, I think, more dated now, to be fair. We should support those who do right when they do right, and oppose those that do wrong when they do wrong, so the position right now vis a vis Busby is: THANKS FOR DOING THE RIGHT THING.
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kpete Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 07:37 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Thank you
for supporting me and encouraging me to believe...k
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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Answering kpete's question was really rather easy, a true "no-brainer":
"Should I have Ken Simpkins assist me to sue Haas for creating a second class balloting system?"

My answer: Yes.


See how simple?

"Separate but equal" (allegedly) went the way of the dodobird decades ago, and this is their DEFENSE (that the late counts are "equal"). Good Lord.

It goes like this:

(1) The balloting systems are not treating ballots equally when some classes of ballots are counted on Tuesday and some Thursday or later, especially if they are ACCOUNTABLE BALLOTS like paper ballots...

(2) Answer: Oh, but they are EQUAL! They all get added to the totals in the end so what's the problem?

(3) "Separate but equal" is the problem, sir. Do you think you can count white votes on Tuesday and Hispanic votes on Thursday? You can not do so, whether they are "equal" dates or not...

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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 07:40 PM
Response to Original message
5. Is this an exit poll or a phone poll?
Because it states it was taken over a couple of days.

Plus the lauguage that Busby may have won is ridiculous. We are talking maybe a percentage point change in the vote after all the paper ballots are counted.

"
(1) EITHER there is a very large discrepancy in the Zogby exit poll vs posted results so far, which means a suspicious election or a defective poll, and 95% of Zogby's polls are within 1% of actual result, OR ELSE "

Note the language of results posted so far? The counting isn't finsihed yet. So comparing the results fo the exit poll and the electoral results are premature. The best part of this is the 2nd claim, the MOE on this poll is 3% so 95% of Zogby polls with the MOE are with 1%. In other words, this exit poll very likely confirms the election results.

"(2) in light of the 180,000 ballots still to be counted in San Diego County, an unknown percentage of which are from the 50th, the race will tighten up considerably over results reported so far, consistent with Zogby exit poll data suggesting that Democrats disproportionately chose paper ballots and Republicans disproportionately chose electronic ballots.(the main point of my press release)
"

6% of the voters in the exit poll said they used paper. So again the tighten up considerably is so much speculation.

But I guess it wouldn't be Paul's style if it weren't breathless.



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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 08:31 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. you are missing the point rinsd, although it seems like you don't wish to get it
Edited on Fri Nov-10-06 08:32 PM by Land Shark
I argue for simply respecting the rights of all voters by waiting, and not presuming victory for any candidate. Nobody really has enough information when there are substantially different classes of ballots, since all PROJECTIONS one might make based on existing returns are OFF. That being said, those benefiting from the Zogby exit poll are benefiting from almost $20K in effort to get additional information relative to all other persons.

I would think that it would be better to be "breathless" in defense of democracy than to have a bias toward being unconcerned, but that would appear to be a difference you have with some including me.

anyway, nothing you say has any force:
Either there is an exit poll gap, OR the gap tightens based on counting remaining ballots (the more likely scenario).

The language that brings the poll within the margin of error is if one is willing to consider the fact that the June 6 Bilbray voters are reported as higher than the actual results of the June 6 election, indicating an apparent over-sampling of Bilbray voters. If one makes an adjustment for that, then it woudl be within the margin of error. But I really don't care nor am I trying to make any claim (to stress) that goes any further than just saying we really don't know for sure what the results are because these ballots are distinct populations.... With paper ballot poll voters, 6.4% of all voters and a much higher percentage of actual total poll voters, at 53.4% to 38.9% for Bilbray, those numbers show the discrepancy with paper and electronic.

but ultimately, the huge lack of transparency means that all projections are but guesses, and trends need not hold as before.

Voting systems are supposed to be neutral, so changing voting systems should not change voting results, but obviously they do, in San Diego county. This is certainly news, though we all have to (still) guess at the magnitude of that response.

I argue for simply respecting the rights of all voters by waiting, and not presuming victory for any candidate. Nobody really has enough information when there are substantially different classes of ballots, since all PROJECTIONS one might make based on existing returns are OFF.
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galloglas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 09:33 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. O/T CA-50 question...
What has happened with the appeal of June's election RE: reversal of Hoffman's "idiot-syncratic" decision about jurisdiction? Surely the November race doesn't render that decision moot, does it?


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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 09:46 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. oral argument is set for December '06
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MindPilot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 07:41 PM
Response to Original message
6. So, umm, it's Friday. Have they been counted yet?
Just asking...
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ahimsa Donating Member (279 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-11-06 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #6
15. County web site says no

COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO GENERAL ELECTION, NOVEMBER 7, 2006

Last updated on: 11-10-06 at: 16:43:46

There are approximately 110000 Absentee / Provisional ballots still to be counted


It looks like a little over 650k ballots have been counted for Governor so that means about 14% of the total ballots (650k counted + 110k uncounted) have yet to be counted. I'm not sure how many of those 110k uncounted ballots are from 50th District voters or how many 50th District voters would vote for Governor but not their House rep, but just for fun, there are 190k ballots counted in Busby's race, so 14% of just the counted ballots would be over 26k ballots left to be counted. Busby is behind by almost 20k votes but if the theory holds that many more Busby voters chose paper, then she could have the most votes, once they are actually counted. I hope they all do get counted before the race is considered a done deal.
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BillORightsMan Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 07:41 PM
Response to Original message
7. You go Land Shark!
"Delaying the count for one class of voters that’s more Democratic but not for another class that’s more Republican also creates 'second class ballots' and 'second class voters' who don’t get considered by the media and politicians on election night and the day after, which is outrageous and unconstitutional. It is very clear in the law that each voter is entitled to 'equal dignity' under the Constitution.

Hear! Hear!

Kick and ARRRRRR!

imbillorightsmanandiapprovethismessage


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Misskittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 09:27 PM
Response to Original message
10. Go LandShark, Ken S., KPete, and others. Make Haas's life
a misery; he needs to be held accountable!
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 10:18 PM
Response to Original message
13. One more rec. for clean and fair elections?
We've got principles that need to be solidified here, so America never has another six years like THAT again.
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nicknameless Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-10-06 11:22 PM
Response to Original message
14. #5 -- Off to Greatest.
The RoVs of this state are mostly corrupt.
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Swamp Rat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-11-06 12:09 AM
Response to Original message
16. k&r
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-11-06 12:47 AM
Response to Original message
17. K & R -- nt
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emlev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-11-06 12:50 AM
Response to Original message
18. See also this thread about adjusted Burns and Allen exit polls
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Rainscents Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-11-06 01:30 AM
Response to Original message
19. New Secretary of State and Attorney General will be going after these
basters when comes Jan!!! I can't wait until they get their hands on this mess. These thugs will be all prosecuted and put into slammer!
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mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-11-06 08:49 AM
Response to Original message
20. Kudos to the team: Lanshark, kpete and Busby!
:dem::toast::bounce::bounce::headbang::smoke::smoke::yourock::smoke::smoke::headbang::bounce::bounce::toast::kick:
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stellanoir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-11-06 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
21. they simply can't get away with this crap anymore IMHO
Edited on Sat Nov-11-06 09:21 AM by stellanoir
Here's best wishes for Busby & land shark & kpete in defending the integrity of elections and/or exposing the horrific lack thereof.

2nd class votes. . . how equitable

K & R'd
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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-11-06 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
22. A thumb on the scales doesn't always "affect the outcome" but it's
still a thumb on the scales
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