Sarasota County Precinct 155 results, is seriously effed up people

[FogerRox]

BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL. . . . . . . . 777
SENATE
Katherine Harris . . . . . . . . 249
Bill Nelson. . . . . . . . . . 499
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . 14
HOUSE
Vern Buchanan . . . . . . . . . 240
Christine Jennings . . . . . . . . 429
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 108
GOVERNOR AND LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 18
ATTORNEY GENERAL
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 39
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 41
COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 41
from

http://www.srqelections.com/results/gen2006pct.htm

The friggin COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE got not even 1/2 the undervotes seen in the house race

WOW, that is effed up. ANd if you scroll down even the ammendments get like 41 undervotes.

SO ah, whats your take on this?

[eomer]

1. All the precincts seem to follow that same pattern.

Here's the detailed count:
http://www.srqelections.com/results/gen2006pct.htm

Before looking at this I was worried they would test just a few machines, not find any that exhibit the problem, and then blame it on the voters. But seeing how widespread it is, the only way they can fail to find a bad machine is if they try really hard.

[FogerRox]

2. Um, same link I posted, right?

I'm not so sure, In Arcadia there seems to be a lack of undervotes...See here, I have been looking at this map, comparing it to google Earth, just for giggles.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?CATEGORY=Election03

Do you know where I can get a list of precincts based by what town they are in ?

[eomer]

4. Yes, same link.

Sorry, I read your post for its content, didn't pay attention to the link.

Anyway, my point was to amplify what you were saying. That one precinct is effed up, as you say, and so are all the others.

On edit: a little slow today, now I'm looking at the map you linked. The map makes it look like there are precincts that don't have a problem. But when I drilled into the details of a couple of the ones that are less then 10% undervote, it turns out that they do have a problem. For example, precinct 61 shows as under 10% but when you look at the vote counts you will see that the undervotes on other races were unusually low in that precinct so the House race is still out of trend. Another precinct that is under 10%, precinct 53, had only 8 votes total and no undervotes on any of the top races. Precinct 54 had only 46 ballots cast and the House race undervotes were a good bit higher than any of the other top races even though they only amounted to 9%.

So I still don't find any precincts that aren't effed up, except for the one (precinct 53) that had so few voters that you wouldn't be able to tell whether it was or wasn't. Were there some specific precincts you found that looked like they don't have the problem? Where is Arcadia on the map?

[FogerRox]

12. OK, Precincts 54, 53, & 16 are the same polling place

County Fire station #18

Pct 54
Christine Jennings . . . . . . . . 14
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 4

Pct 53
Vern Buchanan . . . . . . . . . . 6
Christine Jennings . . . . . . . . 2
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 0

pct 16
Christine Jennings . . . . . . . . 39
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 9

You are so right, whats wrong w/Pct 53? NO-ONE was voting there....

[eomer]

6. Arcadia seems to be in DeSoto County (eom)

[FogerRox]

10. Its google Earths fault, not mine, LOL, .........opps

[eomer]

7. Here's a list of polling places with cities they are in:

http://www.srqelections.com/SampleBallots/sample%20ballot%20general%202006.pdf

[FogerRox]

3. Some of those precincts 5 to 9 Pepole voted for HArris or any "R"

In 153

Bill Nelson. . . . . . . . . . . 53
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 1

Christine Jennings . . . . . . . . 34
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 24

Gov
Jim Davis . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 2

Go down ticket to
CHARTER REVIEW BOARD DISTRICT 1


Michael E. Keisman . . . . . . . . 51
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . . 8

I mean this crap is about the most insane I have ever seen. PERIOD.

[OnTheOtherHand]

5. the undervotes are totally FUBAR, it's a slam dunk

Some of the undervotes are especially high, but the whole pattern is pretty awful.

The tricky question is why. Bad ballot design? machine malfunction or 'malfunction'? some of each? (Deliberate undervoting is off the table.)

[eomer]

8. Ballot design vs. machine malfunction

Here in Miami-Dade County I believe we had a ballot design problem for the House race. The first voting screen had the U.S. Senate, which had six candidates, at the top and then the U.S. house, which had two candidates, at the bottom. At least that's how it was for me in early voting and I believe it was the same on election day since all the iVotronic tapes had the races in that same order.

Here are undervote rates for six precincts in my neighborhood from counts that I copied down on election night:

                                      Miami-Dade County

            Total     Senate      Senate       House       House       Governor    Governor
Precinct   Ballots  Undervotes  Undervote %  Undervotes  Undervote %  Undervotes  Undervote %
  723       375        10          2.7%         19          5.1%         2           0.5%
  749       583        11          1.9%         30          5.1%         6           1.0%
  750       592         6          1.0%         30          5.1%         3           0.5%
  787       134         3          2.2%          6          4.5%         0           0.0%
  745       402        14          3.5%         33          8.2%         7           1.7%
  783       415        10          2.4%         15          3.6%         2           0.5%

I have a call in to Miami-Dade Elections to get the undervotes for all precincts and will post some info when I have it.

In the meantime, my local sample shows what may be a problem with the House race, although not to the same extent as in Sarasota. Maybe the above levels are due to bad ballot placement and the Sarasota numbers are due to bad ballot placement plus machine malfunction. Or maybe we had both problems here (I know someone who swears that the House race, along with Attorney General and CFO, did not appear in the main voting screens for her here) but just a lower frequency of malfunction than in Sarasota (as the frequency of voter complaints would seem to indicate).

I'd like to look at undervotes for the House race in other counties to see whether the above rates could be intentional undervoting, will have to see if and when I get the time. It doesn't strike me that that many people would have skipped the House race here since these Republican House candidates (the Diaz-Balart brothers) have very high name recognition.

[OnTheOtherHand]

9. hmm...

Those numbers don't scream excess undervotes as the Sarasota ones do, but I do think they warrant a closer look. I suspect that combining a 'big race' (i.e., many candidates = much screen space) and a 'little race' on any DRE screen is likely to bloat the undervotes for the 'little race.' Not ruling out other problems as well.

[philb]

13. Congress is not a "little race", they were much closer, competitive than Senate race

[OnTheOtherHand]

17. you missed my point (understandably)

I was referring to the amount of screen space, not the competitiveness. The Jennings-Buchanan race was of course much more competitive than the Senate race.

[philb]

16. Which Cong race is this? Here are the other Cong UVs you asked about

all counties had low undervotes for US Senate and Governor and Congress races

-----------U.S. Sen-Governor-At.Gen-CFO-Ag.Comm
-------------------------------------------------CD18-- CD25
Monroe------ 1.61% 1.13% 3.76% 5.23% 5.21%- 2.36% 0%
Collier------ 1.73% 0.79% 3.24% 6.29% 7.03%- CD24-- CD7--- CD8
Orange------ 1.59% 1.33% 3.91% 3.21% 4.76%- 3.49% 2.90% 1.82%
Brevard----- 0.88% 0.79% 1.93% 3.93% 3.34%- 2.80% -
Volusia ---- 1.01% 0.64% 2.10% 4.76% 4.16%- 2.17% 2.41%
Indian River 1.87% 1.09% 3.29% 4.61% 4.52% (CD15,4.33%)
Polk-------- 0.74% 0.54% 4.80% 2.31% 3.91%
Osceola----- 0.99% 0.23% 1.90% 2.67% 1.68%
Lake-------- 1.26% 1.06% 3.59% 5.06% 4.73%
Marion------ 1.05% 0.99% 3.09% 2.98% 4.18%

Pasco------- 1.59% 0.78% 4.50% 3.65% 5.32%
Pinellas---- 2.10% 0.77% 3.26% 4.34% 5.08%- CD9-- CD11
Hillsboro--- 1.78% 0.56% 3.35% 3.94% 4.84%- 4.32% 4.54%
---------------------------------------------------CD16- CD14- CD13
Charlotte--- 1.30% 0.77% 20.88% 3.95% 5.61%- 1.80% 2.00% 2.47%
Duval------- 1.31% 0.81% 2.61% 5.98% 4.86% (CD6-3.57%)
Hillsboro--- 1.62% 0.62% 3.15% 3.85% 4.59%
Palm Beach-- 1.27% 0.77% 2.12% 3.44% 3.17%

Sumter (CD5, 2.38%)

[eomer]

19. Congressional Districts 21 and 25.

Here it is with the congressional districts:

Miami-Dade County

          Cong      Total     Senate      Senate       House       House       Governor    Governor
Precinct  Dist     Ballots  Undervotes  Undervote %  Undervotes  Undervote %  Undervotes  Undervote %
  723      21       375        10          2.7%         19          5.1%         2           0.5%
  749      21       583        11          1.9%         30          5.1%         6           1.0%
  750      21       592         6          1.0%         30          5.1%         3           0.5%
  787      21       134         3          2.2%          6          4.5%         0           0.0%
  745      25       402        14          3.5%         33          8.2%         7           1.7%
  783      25       415        10          2.4%         15          3.6%         2           0.5%

CD 21 was Lincoln Diaz-Balart(R) against Frank Gonzalez(D).

CD 25 was Mario Diaz-Balart(R) against Michael Calderin(D).

Both Diaz-Balarts were incumbent, expected to win, and did win.

Lincoln took 63% of the CD 21 votes in Miami-Dade county. CD 21 has precincts in Miami-Dade County and in Broward County.

Mario took 58% of the CD 25 votes in Miami-Dade county. CD 25 has precincts in Miami-Dade, Monroe and Collier counties.

[FogerRox]

21. philb, thanks, IMHO anything over 3% that is at the top of the ticket

is too high as a matter of principle.

In the Senate race here is the low

Brevard----- 0.88%

and the high

Pinellas---- 2.10%

Though this looks a little sloppy

Hillsboro--- 1.78% 0.56% 3.35% 3.94% 4.84%- 4.32% 4.54%

[philb]

14. See the main Sarasota thread; they had both biased ballot design and disappearing Jennings votes

There were at least 9 different ballot designs, and some were like the Butterfly ballot design that swung 2000 votes from Gore in several counties; same thing happened here; Congress race on page 1 with Buchanan but no Jennings
Jennings on page 2 at top of page with no Congress race context

one ballot design just omitted the race

Its been determined that the SOE and SOS chose and approved clearly biased ballot designs.
This seems to be clear malfeasance. Why haven't they been indicted????

[eomer]

20. Is your ballot design info based on voter complaints?

And do you have a link to someplace where those complaints are compiled?

Or, better yet, are the actual ballot designs available somewhere?

Edit to add: a reference to the Bradblog article that has a screenshot of a ballot design. Were there other designs?

[philb]

22. statements/affidavits of voters and poll workers, see URL

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=457470&mesg_id=457470

[Cocoa]

15. bad ballot design is part of it

they determined during early voting that people were missing that particular race, and instructed poll workers to warn the voters about it.

I read an article where a poll worker said that the instructions were not followed consistently. Big fuckup. Kathy Dent is responsible for it.

[FogerRox]

I clicked Congressioal districts on Google Earth

That clears that up...

[FogerRox]

11. I clicked Congressional districts on Google Earth

That clears that up...

Now I have the county borders too

[Wilms]

18. .