In FL-13, Analysis Suggests Missing Votes Backed Democrats

[kpete]

Analysis: Ballots favored Dems

Sarasota's 'undervotes' were examined in 5 state races.

Jim Stratton | Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted November 22, 2006


The group of nearly 18,000 voters that registered no choice in Sarasota's disputed congressional election solidly backed Democratic candidates in all five of Florida's statewide races, an Orlando Sentinel analysis of ballot data shows.

Among these voters, even the weakest Democrat -- agriculture-commissioner candidate Eric Copeland -- outpaced a much-better-known Republican incumbent by 551 votes.

The trend, which continues up the ticket to the race for governor and U.S. Senate, suggests that if votes were truly cast and lost -- as Democrat Christine Jennings maintains -- they were votes that likely cost her the congressional election.

Republican Vern Buchanan's 369-vote victory was certified by state officials Monday. His camp says that, although people may have skipped the race -- intentionally or not -- there is no evidence that votes went missing.

But the results of the Sentinel analysis, two experts said, warrant additional investigation.

more at:
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/elections/orl-mvote2206nov22,0,1009612.story?coll=orl-home-headlines

[democraticinsurgent]

1. This is an out and out theft.

Jebbie and his cohorts stole this one. Will be interesting to see if they really get away with election theft in broad daylight. If they do, they will be even more emboldened in 08.

[deepthought42]

2. The sad part is, this does not surprise me...

I sincerely hope election reform is on the agenda for the next 2 years and beyond.

[bullimiami]

3. i hope the new house has the balls to leave the seat empty until an honest

vote takes place.

[philb]

4. Analysis: Jennings would win even if votes lost split same as other Sarasota; but voters say lost we

re mostly Jennings (see other main Jennings thread, voters and pollworker statements, and the following)

EIRS (Election incident Report System) calls by voters to EP hotline

http://eirs.cs.net:8080/EIRS_WEB/Reporting/displayUSReport.do


139 Polling Place Problem Sarasota Florida Yes LOST VOTES: 5 people cast votes on ES&S touch screen machines for the Democratic Congressional candidate but when the summary page/audit came up, that vote did not appear at all; after complaining they were eventually able to verify their votes for the candidate; however this has happened to at least 5 individuals all of whom were voting for the Democratic candidate ES&S touch screens were blank complained; they eventually saw a vote after the audit;

269 Polling Place Problem Sarasota Florida No happened to other people too; no vote was recorded at first; had to repeat vote until machine said that was recorded;

1947 Polling Place Problem Sarasota Florida Yes At Precinct 141, the names of two candidates, Christine Jennings and Vern Buchanon, were not appearing on the screens until the summary page, so voters were not given the opportunity to vote for either candidate.

3432 Other Problem Sarasota Florida Incarnation Church, Parish Hall No Voted for CHristine Jennings on electronic system. Around 7:20 this morning. When she was asked (by machine) to check her choices, there was a denotation next to that race saying "you didn't pick anybody for this race". Smaller print than anything else on page, but in red. She called poll worker and they went through choices again. With assistance of attendance, 2nd time the vote was picked up.

2652 Other Problem Sarasota Florida No Voter tried to vote straight Democratic ticket. Machine incorrectly changed one of his votes to the Republican candidate.

1750 Other Problem Sarasota Florida Yes The polling place lookup website for Sarasota county is not working. http://srqelections.com/ Then click on look-up polling place. Was working this morning, isn't now.

5651 Polling Place Problem Sarasota Florida No Congressional race did not appear on ballot until second time around.

4808 Polling Place Problem Manatee Florida Methodist Church No Voted for one candadate (jennings) did not show up on summary screen. Went back tried again and was able to vote for her.
3179 Polling Place Problem Manatee Florida No only one machine was working at whitfield presbyterian church at 7045 n. tamiami trail in sarasota.

1467 Polling Place Problem Manatee Florida Robo Calls No voting machine did not provide an opportunity to vote for a U.S congressman. At the end, the machine recognized the voter had not voted for Congressman, and routed back.

1248 Voter Intimidation Problem Manatee Florida Yes After hours voicemail message: Son (Phillip Blaustein) in Paris, FL (Manatee Co) (Dist 13) getting calls last 2 days at all hours, incl middle of night. Seem be from Christine Jennings, Democ candidate. If listen to end of message, call identified as from RNC. People agitated to point of voting against Jennings.

768 Voter Intimidation Problem Manatee Florida No Got 40-50 phone messages in past week purporting to be from Christine Jennings and after 4 minutes it is paid for by RNC

[Morgana LaFey]

5. Quelle surprise

NOT!

[FogerRox]

6. Jennings took Sarasota by 53% to 47%, right ?

SO if you figure that Jennings would take the 18k undervotes at the same rate.... 53% to 47%, whats 53% of 18,000 ?

Um... 9540 votes. While the Repub would get 8460 votes. FOr a Jennings advantage of 1080, minus the 369....

SO Jennings should win by 711 votes ?

[read the law first]

7. don't forget the REAL undervotes

Presumably, there are people who really intended not to vote in the race, right? How do you factor those people into your analysis? Your analysis REQUIRES each voter to vote for one or the other candidate, but what about people who really intended NOT to vote in that race?

[philb]

8. based on absentee and other counties, the actual undervote might have been as high as 1.5%

but even there some of it could be due to counting glitches,etc.
Most people who vote, vote in the top and most hotly contested races.
1.5% would not change the outcome here, and its highly unlikely that these voters who voted in the other races for Dems would not also do so in this one.

[OnTheOtherHand]

10. almost certainly much more

I think the excess undervotes probably split for Jennings something like 2 to 1 -- more or less. If so, give Jennings a net 4,000 or 5,000 votes (not all the undervotes were "excess").

(I have to admit it's sort of fun to be talking you up instead of down!)

[philb]

9. Does anyone know a URL for the Orlando Sentinel article that showed most of the

undervotes were by Democratic voters?

The Sentinel seems to have taken the article off their web site?

[OnTheOtherHand]

11. I think it's a copyright violation to post the whole thing

although someone may've done it anyway -- you could try playing with Google.

The longest excerpt I've spotted is as http://www.stephenelliott.com/2006/11/more-e-voting-funny-business-and-of.html

(There's nothing mysterious about the story having disappeared -- the paper wants people to pay for access to old stories.)