2004 Election Model: A Pre-election Chronology of DU Postings

[tiptoe]

2004 Election Model: A Pre-election Chronology of DU Postings
TruthIsAll    http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004ElectionModelDULinks.htm

In the four months prior to the 2004 Election, I posted Election Model electoral vote projections and probabilities on the Democratic Underground. The following links comprise an historical chronology of those posts. I have also included post-election analytical commentary. It’s interesting to review the daily DU post commentary as the projection model was updated.

The analysis was based on the latest 50 state and 18 national polls. The state model used a Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 election trials to determine the expected electoral vote. The probability of a Kerry victory varied each time the polls were updated. It was simply the percentage of the 5000 trials in which he received more than 269 Electoral votes. Of course, the projections throughout the timeline all assumed that the election would be held the following day.

Prior to the final projection, the only assumption in the model was that Kerry would win 60% of the late undecided vote. It was changed to 75% in the final, based on the opinion of professional pollsters (Zogby, Harris and Gallup) that historically, the challenger could expect to win 67-90% of the undecided vote — if the incumbent was unpopular. Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day.

The final Monte Carlo state polling model projected that Kerry would win 51.8% of the two-party vote and capture 337 electoral votes. The national polling model projected that Kerry would win 51.6% of the two-party vote.

The pre-election projections () were confirmed by the exit polls. Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky reported in Jan. 2005 that Kerry led the average unadjusted aggregate state exit poll: 52-47%. Bush won the recorded vote: 50.7-48.3%.

The links to the Election Model show the final Nov 1 projection, but the graphs display the historical trends.

2004 Election Model DU Pre-election Threads

8/19
Kerry 2-day fall - from 338 > 328 > 312 EV in Election Model ...[br />KERRY 8/20 Popular Vote: National 53.4%, State 50.8 %

8/21
8/21 ELECTION SIMULATION MODEL: Kerry: 307 EV - Democratic ...

8/25
Election Model update: Bush is a rope-a-dope. What will finish him ...

8/26
The TIA Election Model: A Primer for Non-Geeks - Democratic ...

8/29
8/29 Election Model Kerry:331EV/99.6% win prob due to Zogby ...

Bush needs 85% of undecided voters to have a 50% prob. of winning ...

9/01
With Zogby polls, Kerry 332 EV / 99.76% WinProb ; without, 288 ...

9/03
Election model: Did Zell win it for *? The Time poll effects ...

9/07
9/8 ELECTION MODEL ZOGBY UPDATE! KERRY 294EV, 86.4% WIN PROB ...

9/08
If Kerry gets 2/3 of the undecided, he's home free! The Incumbent ...

9/18
9/18 Election Model: Kerry EV 254, Win Prob 25% - Democratic ...

9/24
Sept. 18. Mark it down. The day Kerry hit rock bottom in the polls ...

9/20
9/20 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 253 EV, WIN PROB 25% - Democratic ...

HOT ZOGBY UPDATE! ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 280 EV, 69% PROB ...

9/22
9/22 HOT ARG! ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 306 EV, 94% WIN PROB, 50.8 ...

9/25
You may not get Election Model updates for a few days ...

9/26
9/26 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 310EV, 95% PROB, GA 42-43 WTF ...
Election Model enhancements... - Democratic Underground
Can you forecast the election? - Democratic Underground

9/27
9/27 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 300 EV, 91% WIN PROB, 50.85% POP. VOTE ...
Here's how Repub state pollsters work for Bush ( Election-Model ...

9/28
9/28 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 290 EV, 80% WIN PROB, 50.75% POP. VOTE ...

9/29
9/29 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 294 EV, 85% WIN PROB, 50.65% POP. VOTE ...

9/30
9/30 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 304 EV, 94% PROB, 51.1%POP. VOTE ...

10/1
10/1 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 293 EV, 85% PROB, 51.0% OF THE VOTE ...
PRE-DEBATE ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 304 EV, 94% PROB, 51.15% POP ...

10/2
10/02 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 296 EV, 88% WIN PROB, 51.25% OF THE ...

10/3
10/3 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 289 EV, 80% WIN PROB, 50.8% OF THE VOTE ...

10/6
10/6 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 286 EV, 77% WIN PROB, 50.6% OF THE VOTE ...
Ohio now 'Weak Kerry', pushes Kerry's EC number to 280 ...

Election Model updated: Kerry at 292 EV with an 86% win probability.
Democratic Underground - 10/6 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 292 EV, 86 ...

10/8
10/7: Election Model Graphics: Kerry's march to victory ...
10/8 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 323 EV, 99% WIN PROB, 51.18% OF THE ...

10/9
10/9 ELECTION MODEL: CHARTING THE RACE - Democratic Underground
Survey USA - Big Source of electoral-vote.com...anyone have their ...

10/10
10/10 ELECTION MODEL UPDATE: Commentary and Links and Zogby 49-44 ...

10/11
10/11 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 325 EV, ZOGBY 47-44 - Democratic ...
CBS's L.A. Affiliate claims the polls show Bush pulling way ahead ...

10/12
Election Model: Independent and media pollsters agree: * is toast ...

10/13
BACKTESTING THE 2000 ELECTION: PROOF THE ELECTION MODEL WORKS ...
The purpose of the test was to compare the simulation model to the actual results of the 2000 election. ...

10/14
10/14 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 316 EV, 97% WIN PROB, 50.9% OF THE

10/15
10/15 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 327 EV, 99% WIN PROB, 51.15% OF THE ...
LOOK AT THE 18 NATIONAL POLL AVERAGE, NOT JUST ZOGBY - Democratic ...

10/16
ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 327 EV, 99% WIN PROB, 51.44% OF THE VOTE ...
ELECTION MODEL: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - Democratic Underground

10/17
ELECTION MODEL KERRY WIN PROBABILITIES: NAT. VOTE 99.15%, STATE EV ...
The models differ by .05%! ...

GREAT NEWS! THIS IS WHAT ZOGBY MEANT WHEN HE SAID KERRY HAD A GOOD ...
NYT 10/17/04: "Exit Polls to Protect the Vote" - Democratic ...
Democratic Underground Forums - Printer friendly page, topic ID ...
The Election Model is currently featured over at Democrats.com ...

10/18
Poll-based Election Model Gives Kerry a 99% Probability of Winning ...
10/18 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 318 EV, 98% WIN PROB, 51.23% OF THE ...

10/20
10/20 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 312 EV, 96% WIN PROB, 51.39% OF THE ...

10/21
Let’s play “what-if” with FLORIDA and OHIO... - Democratic Underground

10/22
ELECTION MODEL CURRENT STATE POLL-WTD NATIONAL % : KERRY 48.42 ...

10/24
TOSS THE MEDIAWHORE POLLS. KERRY IS WINNING! TRUST ZOGBY. TRUST ...

10/25
10/25 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 300 EV, 90% WIN PROB, 50.92%. BAD ...

10/25 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 316 EV, 98% WIN PROB, 51.2% OF THE ...

10/26
10/26 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 319 EV, 98.5%, 51.36% OF THE VOTE ...

10/28
Democratic Underground - ELECTION MODEL: KERRY HAS A 99% WIN ...
Must Read!The Economist Poll: Kerry 49, Bush 45, Nader 1.Very ...

10/29
10/29 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 327 EV, 99% WIN PROB, 51.3% OF THE ...

10/30
10/30 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 321 EV, 98.4% WIN PROB, 51.17% OF THE ...
If Bush “wins”, it means the election was stolen in Dieboldian ...
BIG BLUE - Democratic Underground

10/31
10/31 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 323 EV, 98% WIN PROB, 51.3% OF THE ...

11/01
Only Good News Today in Mixed Polls. - Democratic Underground
ELECTION MODEL: FINAL PREDICTION WILL BE TONIGHT ( MONDAY )...

POSTSCRIPT

11/03
Bush gave the SIGNAL when he had that WH photo-op last night ...
What happened? I thought your election model showed a 99% win ...

11/04
To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe

11/17
4PM EXIT POLL (PRE-HACK) ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 311 EV, 50.6% VOTE ...

11/30
11/02 ELECTION MODEL: DO YOU BELIEVE IT NOW? - Democratic Underground

• PROVE Election Fraud Yourself. TruthIsAll--full interactive ...
  
  
• Comprehensive TruthIsAll Resource--DUer "DrDebug" Put it Together ...
  
  
• A Reminder To All DUers (TruthIsAll... are you out there ...
  
  
• EXIT POLL ANALYSIS – ESSENTIAL DU THREADS - Democratic Underground
  
  
• TruthIsAll: An Interview with TruthIsAll (12/21/05 ...
  
  
• Two from TruthIsAll -- Spread the Links!!! - Democratic Underground
  
  
  
• TruthIsAll: "This is the BEST post I have ever written ...
  
  
  
• Free -- TruthIsAll -- Elections Software– Do Your Own Analysis ...
  
  
• Bush LOST. RESIGN Now. New TruthIsAll - Democratic Underground
  
  
  
• RIGHT NOW, Hundreds of freeps are freaking out over the Election ...
  
  
  
• TruthIsAll: Plain English—“The Past is Prologue"- 1st Line Fraud ...
  
  
  
• Democratic Underground - I agree with the spirit of your post ...
  
  
• Democratic Underground - Your statement is gibberish. Back it up ...
  
  
• TruthIsAll Interview--Kerry Won!!! Tool for Everyone to Prove It ...
  
  
• POST NUMBER 10000: THE 2004 ELECTION COLLECTION - Democratic ...
  
  
• A SUMMARY EXIT POLL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION - Democratic Underground
  
  
• Democratic Underground - My assumption is based on historical FACT ...
  
  
• PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS - Democratic ...
  
  
  
• Democratic Underground - JIM LAMPLEY: THIS IS FOR YOU. GO FOR THE ...
  
  
• Rasmussen FINALLY agrees with The Election Model! - Democratic ...
  
  
• Democratic Underground - I have always used the two-party vote for ...
  
  
• Defending RFK Jr. - Channeling TruthIsAll About Democracy ...
  
  
  
• Democratic Underground - This is what I believe... - Democratic ...
  
  
• TruthIsAll banned from Kos. - Democratic Underground
  
  
• TruthIsAll in PLAIN ENGLISH. Debunking the Naysayers - Democratic ...
  
  
• TRUTHISALL: The 2006 FINAL National Exit Poll does NOT compute ...
  
  
• Exit Polls MATCHED Pre-Election polls within 1/7th of ONE percent ...

Nov-17-04 07:49 PM
The final state polls entered into the Election model had Kerry leading by ONE percent in the national ...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1366062

Channeling TruthIsAll -- One of the Best Ever -- TruthIsAll ...


Democratic Underground - No Blog. But I live at DU. - Democratic ...


Democratic Underground Forums - Printer friendly page, topic ID ...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x65001

ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE - Democratic ...

Post original vote fraud analyses/data to Election Investigation ...

Apr-01-05 12:07 PM
Kerry the 2-party vote winner by 51.8%-48.2% in my election model (337 EV) using published pre-election ...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=printer_friendly&forum=203&topic_id=351776

Democratic Underground - Febble, my response... - Democratic ...
Projections are based on models that use votes from three (3) different sources -- exit poll interviews with voters, vote returns as reported by election ...

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