6/12 Election Model: Obama 52.3%; 314 EV; 99.9% Prob

[babylonsister]

6/12 Election Model: Obama 52.3%; 314 EV; 99.9% Prob

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

If it were held today, the model indicates that Obama would win the election by
314- 224 electoral votes.
The State model projects that he would capture 52.3% of the 2-party vote.
The National model projects that he would win 52.6%.

Obama leads the latest state poll aggregate by 45.7 - 43.1%.
He leads the latest national poll aggregate by 47.4 - 43.9%.

View the detailed state and national polling data and model projections in the tables
below.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

The expected electoral vote was calculated in a Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 election
trials.
Since Obama won 99.9% of the trials, that is his win probability.

The model ran five scenarios of undecided voter allocation.
In the most likely base case, 60% were allocated to Obama.
In the worst case scenario (50%) Obama has 51.2%, 295 EV with a 93% win probability.

The latest polls indicate these states will flip to Obama: CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA

[MadBadger]

1. Watch out for a potential pickup in 1 Nebraska Congressional district as well.

[bleever]

2. This site, along with electoral-vote.com,

will be good resources to watch for this election.

K&R.

[FogerRox]

3. I think the vote will be more like Dems 55 % to Repubs 58%

FDR got about 57%, while LBJ got 61%. Goldwater won 8 states in '64.