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Edited on Fri Aug-29-08 09:39 PM by tiptoe
2008 ELECTION MODELA Monte Carlo Electoral Vote SimulationUpdated: August 29
Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update
Chart State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
Chart National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
Chart State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
Chart Battleground-State Polls
Chart Battleground-State Win Probability
Chart Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
Chart Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
Chart Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
Chart Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
Chart Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer Uncounted & Switched Votes
Chart Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
Chart Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote This State National State National Monte Carlo Simulation Update Poll 5-Poll 2-party 2-party Expected 8/29/2008 Aggregate Average Projection Projection ELECTORAL VOTE Obama
McCain 45.89 (51.02)
44.06 (48.98) 47.40 (52.09)
43.60 (47.91) 51.92
48.08 52.80
47.20 331
207
15-Poll
End
Sample
Poll
NATIONAL MODEL Pre Undecided-Voter Allocation
5-Poll Mov Avg 2-Party 2-Party Projection (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg Trend
Rasmussen
Gallup
CNN
Hotline/FD
USA/Gallup
ABC/WP
FOX
CBS/NYT
NBC/WSJ
Bloomberg
Quinnipiac
Reuters/Zogby
Gallup
Pew
IBD/TIPP
Date
8/28
8/28
8/24
8/24
8/23
8/22
8/20
8/19
8/18
8/18
8/17
8/16
8/10
8/10
8/10
Size
3000LV
2727RV
909RV
800RV
765LV
1000RV
900RV
869RV
1005RV
1248RV
1547LV
1089LV
903RV
2414RV
925RV
MoE
1.79%
1.88%
3.25%
3.46%
3.54%
3.10%
3.27%
3.32%
3.09%
2.77%
2.49%
2.97%
3.26%
1.99%
3.22%
LV avg
RV avg
Total
Obama
49
49
47
44
48
49
42
45
45
45
47
41
45
46
43
46.25
45.40
45.67
McCain
45
41
47
40
45
43
39
42
42
43
42
46
38
43
38
44.50
40.80
42.27
Spread
4
8
0
4
3
6
3
3
3
2
5
(5)
7
3
5
1.75
4.60
3.40
Obama
47.4
47.4
46.0
45.6
45.8
45.2
44.8
44.6
44.6
44.8
44.4
44.0
45.0
45.6
46.6
McCain
43.6
43.2
42.8
41.8
42.2
41.8
41.6
43.0
42.2
42.4
41.4
40.8
39.8
40.6
40.8
| Obama
52.1
52.3
51.8
52.2
52.0
52.0
51.9
50.9
51.4
51.4
51.7
51.9
53.1
52.9
53.3
Win Prob
98.9
99.2
86.1
89.1
87.1
89.2
86.7
70.5
81.0
83.5
91.5
89.3
96.7
99.8
97.8
Obama
52.80
53.04
52.72
53.16
53.00
53.00
52.96
52.04
52.52
52.48
52.92
53.12
54.12
53.88
54.16
McCain
47.20
46.96
47.28
46.84
47.00
47.00
47.04
47.96
47.48
47.52
47.08
46.88
45.88
46.12
45.84
Diff
5.6
6.1
5.4
6.3
6.0
6.0
5.9
4.1
5.0
5.0
5.8
6.2
8.2
7.8
8.3
Win Prob
99.9
99.9
95.0
96.3
95.1
97.1
96.2
88.5
94.5
96.0
98.9
98.0
99.3
100.0
99.4
Obama is getting an expected convention bounce in the national polls.
What is his projected Electoral Vote, assuming the election is held today?
Is it 282, based on the latest unadjusted state polls?
Is it 301, based on the projected state vote win probabilities using the latest polls (assuming a 50/50 split of undecided voters)?
Is it 331, based on the projected state vote win probabilities (assuming 60% of undecided voters (UVA) break to Obama)?
Is it 341, based on the projected state 2-party vote using the latest polls (assuming 60% UVA for Obama)?
The Election Model Monte Carlo 5000 election trial EV simulation has him winning by 331–207.
The expected electoral vote can be calculated directly by a formula. But only a simulation can calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote.
Obama’s expected EV in a given state is the EV times his win probability. Therefore, his Total Expected EV is given by the summation formula:
EV = sum [ P(i) * EV(i) ], for i=1, 51 states. P(i) is the probability of winning state (i) with EV(i) electoral votes.
For example, Obama is projected to win Florida’s 27 EV with 50.4% of the 2-party vote (57.8% win probability).
His expected EV is 15.6 (0.578 * 27EV).
The state poll/projection table (below) includes the expected EV.
Obama leads the aggregate State projection model by 51.9–48.1% and the National model by 52.8–47.2%. He has a bigger lead than the near “dead heat” claimed by pollsters, bloggers and the media. That’s because they want a close race and don’t adjust polls for undecided and newly registered voters.- Of the latest 15 national polls, 11 are Registered Voter (RV) and 4 are LV. The RVs include newly registered young Democrats who are not included in the LV polls. Perhaps that’s why Obama leads by 4.6% in the RV polls but only 1.75% in the LVs. In 2004, Kerry did better in RVs than in LVs.
- The Election Model's base case scenario assumption is that Obama will capture 60% of the undecided vote. He’s considered to be the challenger, since McCain is running for Bush’s third term. Typically, challengers win 75–90% of the undecided vote. In 2004, final state and national Pre-Election Polls had the race nearly tied at 47, but Kerry had at least 70% of the undecided vote (Gallup allocated 88% to him).
But there’s another factor to consider — Election Fraud. The media avoids McCain’s gaffes, flip-flops and plagiarisms, while he supports the most unpopular president in history. In a true democracy, this election would be a slam dunk.
NOT ONE ELECTION WEBSITE, POLLSTER OR MEDIA PUNDIT EVER MENTIONS THE FRAUD FACTOR.
The Election Model accounts for the distinct probability that the election will be fraudulent and adjusts the vote shares accordingly. This analysis will be provided right up to the election. To show the effects of fraud, the summary table displays Obama’s electoral and popular vote assuming 3% of total votes cast are uncounted (Obama has 75%) and 4% of Obama’s votes are switched to McCain. After adjusting for these factors, Obama has 251 electoral votes and a 49.1% vote share. Of course, for higher switched vote and uncounted vote rates, he would lose by larger margins. Two graphs display the effects of a combination range of uncounted and switch vote scenarios on the EV and popular vote (see the links below).
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote. According to the Census Bureau, 5.4m (4.9%) of total votes cast in 2000 were uncounted. Approximately 4.0m were Gore votes. In 2004, 3.4m (2.7%) votes were uncounted (2.5m were Kerry votes). The Election Calculator model (see below) indicates that 5.3m (7.9%) Kerry votes were switched to Bush. OBAMA NEEDS A MASSIVE VOTER REGISTRATION AND GOTV EFFORT TO OVERCOME THE FRAUD.
In the Three-Card Monte con, the mark is tricked into betting that he can find the money card among three face-down cards. A rigged election is the Vote Scam equivalent of the Three-card Monte. What you see in the exit polls is not what you get in the recorded count; the recorded vote is never equal to the True vote. In this con game, the voter is the mark. Any model which correctly calculates the True vote is doomed to fail in a rigged election.
Zogby and Harris were correct when they projected a Kerry win. But Bush won a rigged Recorded vote, while Kerry won the True vote. As in Three-Card Monte, what you see is not what you get. Election forecasters and media pundits who projected a Bush win avoid mentioning the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media has been in a permanent election fraud lockdown, while it relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won BOTH elections.
Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. Although the media commissioned exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they never explained why mathematically impossible weights were used in the Final Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote. The final 2004 Election Model projection gave Kerry 337 EV and 51.8% of the two party vote. Bush won the recorded vote by 62–59m with 286 EV.
These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral vote
Polling data source:
Electoral-vote.com
RealClearPolitics.com
THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL
Last State National State National Monte Carlo Simulation Update Poll 5-Poll 2-party 2-party Expected 8/29/2008 Aggregate Average Projection Projection EV 60% UVA Obama
McCain 45.89
44.06 47.40
43.60 51.92
48.08 52.80
47.20 331
207 2004 Final 75% UVA Kerry
Bush 47.88
46.89 47.80
46.60 51.80
48.20 51.77
48.23 337
201 Projected Recorded Vote (assuming fraud) Obama Vote Share after adjustment for: Popular Vote
Electoral Vote 49.1%
251 3% -
4% - Uncounted Votes
Switched Votes True Vote Sensitivity Analysis I — Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) UVA Scenario Base Case Obama 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Projected 2-Party Vote Share Obama
McCain 49.9
50.1 50.9
49.1 51.92
48.08 52.9
47.1 53.9
46.1 MoE Obama popular vote win probability 2.0 %
2.5 %
3.0 % 46.6
47.3
47.7 81.6
76.4
72.6 97
93.4
89.6 99.8
98.9
97.2 99.99
99.90
99.49 Obama Expected Electoral Vote Average
Median 274
273 301
301 331
331 362
363 390
389 Maximum
Minimum 352
196 387
229 422
246 435
282 458
317 Obama Electoral Vote Win Probability Trial Wins
Probability 2813
56.3 4612
92.2 4974
99.48 5000
100.0 5000
100.0 95% Confidence Level Upper
Lower 317
230 346
257 376
286 403
320 430
349 States Won Obama
23
24
28
31
35
Sensitivity Analysis II — Projected Vote Share & Win Probability Obama
46.7
47.8
48.8
49.8
50.9
51.92
Electoral Vote
Win Probability 165
0.0 205
0.2 240
9.9 273
52.8 303
92.9 331
99.48
MoE
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
0.1
0.5
1.6
1.4
4.0
7.3
Popular Vote
Win Probability
12.1
17.5
21.8
44.0
45.2
46.0
80.7
75.6
71.8
97.03
93.42
89.55
2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS National Model — see atopState Model(2-party vote shares) C U R R E N T P O L L S OBAMA vs KERRY MONTE CARLO EV SIMULATION Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation Projection Projection JK Exit Poll Recorded Diff Diff Obama Obama Key States Within EV Flip(*)
Total
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
538
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
17
10
6
11
3
5
5
4
15
5
31
15
3
20
7
7
21
4
8
3
11
34
5
3
13
11
5
10
3
Obama
45.89 %
36
36
36
37
53
45
51
90
50
45
44
61
37
50
43
50
35
37
38
49
53
49
45
48
42
40
47
32
49
45
50
51
53
43
42
42
37
50
48
51
40
43
32
41
31
63
47
52
37
49
40
McCain
44.06 %
51
48
44
47
40
45
36
9
41
46
53
31
53
37
48
44
58
55
55
36
41
37
40
43
53
50
47
50
44
44
39
42
37
46
45
43
42
43
43
30
53
47
56
50
55
29
45
42
45
43
53
Diff
1.84 %
(15)
(12)
(8)
(10)
13
0
15
81
9
(1)
(9)
30
(16)
13
(5)
6
(23)
(18)
(17)
13
12
12
5
5
(11)
(10)
0
(18)
5
1
11
9
16
(3)
(3)
(1)
(5)
7
5
21
(13)
(4)
(24)
(9)
(24)
34
2
10
(8)
6
(13)
Obama
51.92 %
43.8
45.6
48.0
46.6
57.2
51.0
58.8
90.6
55.4
50.4
45.8
65.8
43.0
57.8
48.4
53.6
39.2
41.8
42.2
58.0
56.6
57.4
54.0
53.4
45.0
46.0
50.6
42.8
53.2
51.6
56.6
55.2
59.0
49.6
49.8
51.0
49.6
54.2
53.4
62.4
44.2
49.0
39.2
46.4
39.4
67.8
51.8
55.6
47.8
53.8
44.2 Final Kerry
51.80 %
42.0
39.8
48.8
51.0
55.8
50.8
56.5
86.3
57.8
52.3
46.5
52.5
38.3
57.0
41.3
54.5
39.3
42.8
49.0
58.3
56.3
70.8
54.3
55.0
47.3
49.3
41.3
37.3
50.5
51.5
56.0
50.5
60.0
49.0
42.5
52.3
36.3
54.5
53.8
62.0
44.3
46.5
49.2
40.0
29.3
58.3
48.5
55.0
50.0
54.8
33.5
IMS WPE
52.48
42.3
40.6
45.0
45.7
60.7
50.6
62.9
91.5
61.9
51.5
42.4
58.7
32.6
57.1
40.8
51.2
37.5
40.3
44.0
56.1
60.2
66.4
55.0
56.3
49.5
49.5
37.6
37.4
53.4
57.8
58.1
53.6
65.1
50.0
35.0
54.6
34.2
51.9
55.7
62.7
46.2
36.3
43.6
42.4
28.4
67.2
50.3
57.4
40.7
52.6
32.9
Kerry
48.76
37.2
35.9
44.8
45.0
54.9
47.5
54.9
90.1
53.9
47.6
41.8
54.6
30.6
55.4
39.7
49.7
37.0
40.1
42.6
54.1
56.5
62.6
51.7
51.6
40.2
46.6
39.0
33.0
48.4
50.7
53.5
49.5
59.0
44.0
35.9
49.2
34.8
51.9
51.4
60.0
41.3
38.8
43.0
38.6
26.3
59.5
45.9
53.4
43.6
50.2
29.4
Projection
0.12
1.8
5.9
(0.8)
(4.4)
1.5
0.3
2.3
4.3
(2.3)
(1.9)
(0.7)
13.3
4.8
0.8
7.2
(0.9)
(0.0)
(1.0)
(6.8)
(0.3)
0.4
(13.4)
(0.3)
(1.6)
(2.3)
(3.3)
9.4
5.6
2.7
0.1
0.6
4.7
(1.0)
0.7
7.3
(1.3)
13.4
(0.3)
(0.3)
0.4
(0.0)
2.5
(10.0)
6.4
10.2
9.6
3.3
0.6
(2.2)
(0.9)
10.7
Exit Poll
(0.55)
1.5
5.0
3.0
0.9
(3.5)
0.4
(4.1)
(0.9)
(6.5)
(1.1)
3.4
7.1
10.4
0.7
7.6
2.4
1.7
1.5
(1.8)
1.9
(3.6)
(9.0)
(1.0)
(2.9)
(4.5)
(3.5)
13.0
5.4
(0.2)
(6.2)
(1.5)
1.6
(6.1)
(0.4)
14.8
(3.6)
15.4
2.3
(2.3)
(0.3)
(2.0)
12.7
(4.4)
4.0
11.0
0.6
1.5
(1.8)
7.1
1.2
11.3 Exp EV
331
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.3
55.0
6.2
7.0
3.0
3.0
15.6
0.3
4.0
0.0
21.0
2.4
6.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
10.0
12.0
16.6
9.5
0.0
0.3
1.8
0.0
4.7
3.1
15.0
5.0
31.0
6.3
1.4
13.8
3.0
6.9
20.0
4.0
0.0
0.9
0.0
1.3
0.0
3.0
10.5
11.0
0.7
9.7
0.0
Win Prob
99.48
0.1
1.6
16.4
4.8
100.0
68.8
100.0
100.0
99.6
57.8
2.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
21.7
96.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
99.9
100.0
97.5
95.2
0.7
2.5
61.6
0.0
94.2
78.3
99.9
99.5
100.0
42.2
46.1
68.8
42.2
98.0
95.2
100.0
0.2
31.2
0.0
3.9
0.0
100.0
81.1
99.7
14.1
96.9
0.2
EV*Spread
100%
0.9%
7.4%
19.7%
4.0%
1.9%
6.2%
3.7%
2.5%
1.8%
2.9%
8.2%
1.6%
14.6%
2.6%
1.3%
7.7%
1.4%
8.3%
0.5%
2.7%
MoE
207
10
9
27
11
7
17
10
3
5
4
15
3
20
7
7
21
3
13
5
10
to Obama
8
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO*
CT
DC
DE
FL*
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA*
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT*
NE
NV*
NH
NJ
NM*
NY
NC
ND
OH*
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA*
WA
WV
WI
WY
Uncounted and Switched Vote Fraud Scenarios The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors: uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and switched votes. Historical evidence shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. In fact, there is no mention of fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But it’s understandable. No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them. Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t? Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress. Read more about uncounted votes here. The Election Calculator Model This model uses prior election votes cast, mortality and estimated voter turnout to calculate the True Vote.
It was originally developed to determine the 2004 True vote after the fact.
It does not calculate the corresponding Electoral vote.
But we can estimate the Electoral vote and win probability from the popular vote.
National Exit Poll vote shares of returning voters were key inputs.
As of today, the 2008 Election Calculator confirms the Election Model:
Obama has 54.1% and will win the True Vote by 71 – 59m.
Input consists of 2004 total votes cast (recorded plus uncounted), mortality and 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
The vote shares are similar to the 2004 National Exit Poll shares of returning and new voters.2008 True Vote Election Calculator Forecast
Estimated vote share (see National Exit Poll)
2004 Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100.0% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 70.8 58.5 1.6 These are a few reasons why Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is preferable to election forecasting methods used in the media and academia: - Academic models forecast national vote shares only (months in advance of the election) using regression analysis of economic and political time-series.
- The Election Model projects the popular and electoral vote (and win probabilities) based on the latest state and national polls right up to the election.
- MC does not arbitrarily designate states as being “too close to call”; it automatically factors in the poll-based win probabilities.
- MC is a powerful tool for analyzing risk-based systems (i.e. electoral vote models) when deriving an analytical solution is impractical or impossible.
In each of the 5000 Monte Carlo election trials, the winner of each state is determined using win probabilities calculated from the latest poll-based projection. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 EV. The electoral vote win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000. State and national aggregate popular vote win probabilities are calculated using the Excel normal distribution function. The projected two-party vote share and standard deviation (MoE/1.96) are inputs to the function. A constant 4% MoE is assumed for all state poll win probabilities. The National Model calculates a 5-poll moving average projection assuming the base case Obama 60% UVA scenario. The National projection would normally be a leading indicator of the State model aggregate since it is based on up-to-date polling. The normal distribution function calculates the national popular vote win probability assuming the MoE of the latest poll. Read more about Election Forecasting Models and Monte Carlo simulation here. 2004 Election Model ReviewOn Election Day 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating. He won the official vote by 62 – 59m (122.3m recorded). But according to the 2004 Census, 125.7m votes were cast. Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted. The majority (70–80%) of uncounted ballots are in Democratic minority precincts. Including uncounted votes, the adjusted count becomes 62.9–61.5m. The Election Model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models. - In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
- The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.
Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18 national poll average projection was 51.6%.Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states. Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005. - E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
- Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average difference between unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote count margins.
It is more appropriate to call it Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0 – 47.0% (average of three measures). Unadjusted Exit Poll Recorded Vote Count
EV Kerry Bush Margin KEV Kerry Bush Margin KEV WPE/WPD
WtdAv TOTAL 51.95 47.05 4.91 337 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 7.37 %
- exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush
- exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
- was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN).
- was less than 2% in just 1 Democratic state (OR), the only state which votes 100% by paper ballot.
The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by 48 – 51%.- The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
- The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs — and the unadjusted exit polls.
The Election Calculator Model determined that Kerry won by 66.9 – 57.7 million. Simple arithmetic shows that approximately 5.4m votes (8.0%) were switched from Kerry to Bush. In most states, votes cast exceeded votes recorded — the net uncounted vote. In Florida, Ohio and other states, votes recorded exceeded votes cast — the net padded vote. 2004 Calculated True Vote
12:22am NEP vote share
2000 Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Votes cast 125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded Vote (actual) 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Deviation from True Vote -4.9% +5.3% -0.4%
Unadjusted Exit Poll 52.0% 47.0% 1.0%
Deviation from True Vote -1.2% +1.6% -0.4%
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