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DUVFWT TASK: Write, email & fax to get FULL EXIT POLL DATA (keep kicked)

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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:08 PM
Original message
DUVFWT TASK: Write, email & fax to get FULL EXIT POLL DATA (keep kicked)
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 07:16 PM by althecat
NOTE: This thread replaces the very excellently kicked WORK TEAM thread Ok... third time lucky I WANT COMPLETE EXIT POLL DATA (keep kicked pls)

**********


The Story So Far

Since election night there has been a great deal of comment on the exit polls. Scoop has so far posted three reports based on three sets of data that we found here on DU.
Faun Otter - Nov. 3 (UST)- Faun Otter: Vote Fraud - Exit Polls Vs Actuals
Jonathan Simon - Nov. 10 (UST) 47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly
TruthIsAll - Nov. 16 (UST)- Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions

All three sets of data show a marked and strong swing to Bush after the exit polls. This poll data is important and raises suspicions for reasons explained at the above links.

Of these sets of data the Jonathan Simon Data released on Nov 10th is probably the best as it came from a nearly complete set of exit poll responses. This set of data is the basis of the much lauded Dr Stephen F. Freeman Report – Which Was Posted Initially By Buzzflash

However none of these sets of data is from an official source. And so we do not yet have the full credible data that is required for a proper academic or media consideration of this issue. And the fact that the data remains unobtainable is in itself casting suspicions on the outcome of the election.

The real data is vital for the reasons I stated in my previous post on this matter namely. " I CANNOT STRESS HOW IMPORTANT THIS IS. THE FULL EXIT POLL DATA IS THE ONLY REAL SNAPSHOT THERE IS OF THIS ELECTION OTHER THAN THE OFFICIAL COUNT." The data is also extremely important and useful for all the people conducting audits of each state election as it not only includes the absolute numbers but it also contains the reasons people voted.

**********


UPDATE on my attempts to obtain official Exit Poll Data

I have been corresponding with a contact person from Edison Mitofsky for several days. She kindly offered a copy of regional data - grouped into East, West, Midwest & South for $750. I was prepared to pay this sum for the state by state data and would have asked for donations from kind DUers to cover the cost.. but what was offered is not what we needed. To get the actual reports state by state would cost $750 per state or $38,000. I think she might discount this to $10,000 but it is still way out of my league. It may be worth asking for some of these reports and if people need them and are prepared to pay I can pass on contact details to my contact.

I then appealed to Edison's better side asking if they would
1. releasing the state by state headline numbers for 4pm 8pm and midnight (before tabulated results were incorporated into the data)
2. Release a statement giving Edison's honest opinion on what went wrong.

I added..

At the moment you are the meat in the sandwich and some proactive action on your part can at least divert the attention back to where it belongs. On the politicians who created this mess.

She replied.
It is not our property to release - it is totally up to the National Election Pool to do anything they want with the data - tell people to call them.

And so I think that is what we should do, in an organised fashion.

**********


WHAT I WANT WORK TEAM MEMBERS TO DO



Fax email and phone all of the National Exit-Poll Pool members listed Here namely:

ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC News

Asking them to release the data in the public interest. The first job is to get together a set of contact names addresses and numbers ( Please could someone grab names numbers & addresses from the DU media blast list and post below.)

Please keep your messages brief, polite and too the point. Please use your own words or use my draft below as a starting point – and if you come up with a good form of words please post it here.

If you are a member of BBV related organisation it would be good if your organisation could formally join this effort as the weight of your membership numbers would help. Some WORK TEAM members might like to email these groups e.g. Countthevote.org / verifiedvoting.org and inform them of this campaign and ask them to join it..

DRAFT STATEMENT TO SEND TO EXIT POLL MEMBERS...

- In light of widespread public interest and speculation on the Internet and elsewhere based upon exit poll data the providence of which is unknown;
– Considering that this speculation is undermining faith in the integrity of the election system;
- Considering that the non-release of this exit polling data is raising concerns about the impartiality of the national exit poll pool members
&
In the interests of restoring faith in both the election system and the impartiality of the media.

I call upon the National Exit Poll Pool to publicly release the full original exit poll data on a state by state basis from the 4pm and 8pm and the final pre-incorporation of tabulated data runs on election night 2004.


(For the avoidance of doubt the exit poll data which is presently posted online on many of the Pool members websites e.g. CNN has been adjusted with reference to the actual results and is useless for the purposes of election monitoring.)

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New Earth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:23 PM
Response to Original message
1. i'm trying...
i'm trying to figure this out, and send out an email to them all, but the media database thing is confusing to me - i am getting all these returns of news channels i've never heard of before.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Somewhere there is a nice straight forward media blast list
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 07:31 PM by althecat
I will see if I can find. On edit I can't... if someone else could post a link to the list it would be very helpful.
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:34 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Would the one from the Gen. Disc. help?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:48 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Yes that was what I was looking for... would be worth culling a list
of POOL members contact addresses and posting it here.
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mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:34 PM
Response to Original message
4. I'm on it . meow
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TexasLawyer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:53 PM
Response to Original message
6. KICK/ eom
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chomskysright Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:02 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. looking for ur reply: its been 8 minutes!
waiting...over in Asheville, NC...
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Karenca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:09 PM
Response to Original message
8. COPY & PASTE THIS EMAIL LIST --- You'll get some returns, just a few
2020@abc.com, nightline@abcnews.com, nightline@abc.com, feedback@ap.org, jloven@ap.org, kcarroll@ap.org, lmargasak@ap.org, msilverman@ap.org, opinion@thewire.ap.org, npickler@ap.org, rfournier@ap.org, sjohnson@ap.org, pr@ap.org, thunt@ap.org, traum@ap.org, aweathersbee@suntimes.com, zwecker@suntimes.com, stbusiness@suntimes.com, cledbetter@suntimes.com, metro@suntimes.com, dmiller@suntimes.com, ddouglas@suntimes.com, showcase@suntimes.com, jbarry@suntimes.com, jwisser@suntimes.com, jbarron@suntimes.com, jcruickshank@suntimes.com, jwcary@suntimes.com, letters@suntimes.com, marym@suntimes.com, mcooke@suntimes.com, sneed@suntimes.com, prosen@suntimes.com, stphoto@suntimes.com, rroeper@suntimes.com, feder@suntimes.com, rjr@suntimes.com, shuntley@suntimes.com, savage@suntimes.com, ctc-editor@tribune.com, rkemper@tribune.com, bjapsen@tribune.com, csimpson@tribune.com, cgarrett@tribune.com, fjames@tribune.com, GWashburn@tribune.com, gdelama@tribune.com, joshea@tribune.com, jgreenburg@tribune.com, jzeleny@tribune.com, jzuckman@tribune.com, jcrewdson@tribune.com, JPeres@tribune.com, MPossley@tribune.com, mdorning@tribune.com, CptKilian, mtackett@tribune.com, nbendavid@tribune.com, psinger2@tribune.com, bdold@tribune.com, rranderson@tribune.com, Rap30, shedges@tribune.com, schapman@tribune.com, vwalton@tribune.com, wneikirk@tribune.com, aaron.brown@turner.com, am@cnn.com, 360@cnn.com, andrea.koppel@turner.com, bill.schneider@turner.com, bruce.morton@turner.com, candy.crowley@turner.com, carol.lin@turner.com, crossfire@cnn.com, daryn.kagan@turner.com, david.ensor@turner.com, daybreak@cnn.com, kurtzh@washpost.com, inthemoney@cnn.com, jeanne.meserve@turner.com, jeff.greenfield@cnn.com, jim.walton@turner.com, deirdre.walsh@turner.com, kelly.wallace@turner.com, kyra.phillips@turner.com, livefrom@cnn.com, livetoday@cnn.com, lou.dobbs@turner.com, loudobbs@cnn.com, miles.obrien@turner.com, moneyline@cnn.com, newsnight@cnn.com, paula.zahn@turner.com, rick.davis@turner.com, tom.hannon@cnn.com, wam@cnn.com, wolf@cnn.com, imusshow@yahoo.com, letters@economist.com, amity.shlaes@ft.com, letters.editor@ft.com, martin.wolf@ft.com, philip.stephens@ft.com, quentin.peel@ft.com, gpalmer@news-press.com, afterhours@foxnews.com, atlarge@foxnews.com, brian.wilson@foxnews.com, brit.hume@foxnews.com, bullsandbears@foxnews.com, cash@foxnews.com, cavuto@foxnews.com, comments@foxnews.com, dayside@foxnews.com, forbes@foxnews.com, friends@foxnews.com, foxmagazine@foxnews.com, feedback@foxnews.com, fns@foxnews.com, newswatch@foxnews.com, foxreport@foxnews.com, Colmes@foxnews.com, Hannity@foxnews.com, heartland@foxnews.com, james.rosen@foxnews.com, jim.angle@foxnews.com, major.garrett@foxnews.com, molly.henneberg@foxnews.com, ontherecord@foxnews.com, special@foxnews.com, studiob@foxnews.com, beltway@foxnews.com, myword@foxnews.com, oreilly@foxnews.com, viewerservices@foxnews.com, warstories@foxnews.com, wendell.goler@foxnews.com, letters@star-telegram.com, viewpoints@chron.com, citydesk@chron.com, sternshow@howardstern.com, abjerga@krwashington.com, dgoldstein@krwashington.com, fdavies@krwashington.com, lmarkoe@krwashington.com, mrecio@krwashington.com, mstearns@krwashington.com, rhutcheson@krwashington.com, rbailey@krwashington.com, slgoldstein@krwashington.com, twebb@pioneerpress.com, aaron.zitner@latimes.com, alan.miller@latimes.com, barbara.serrano@latimes.com, barry.siegel@latimes.com, bill.rempel@latimes.com, bob.drogin@latimes.com, chuck.neubauer@latimes.com, davan.maharaj@latimes.com, david.kelly@latimes.com, david.savage@latimes.com, david.willman@latimes.com, david.zucchino@latimes.com, deborah.nelson@latimes.com, don.frederick@latimes.com, don.woutat@latimes.com, doyle.mcmanus@latimes.com, ellen.barry@latimes.com, esther.schrader@latimes.com, faye.fiore@latimes.com, glenn.bunting@latimes.com, greg.miller@latimes.com, janet.hook@latimes.com, joel.havemann@latimes.com, johanna.neuman@latimes.com, john.glionna@latimes.com, john.hendren@latimes.com, john.stewart@latimes.com, jonathan.peterson@latimes.com, josh.getlin@latimes.com, josh.meyer@latimes.com, judy.pasternak@latimes.com, julie.bowles@latimes.com, ken.silverstein@latimes.com, kevin.sack@latimes.com, leslie.hoffecker@latimes.com, letters@latimes.com, linda.finestone@latimes.com, lisa.getter@latimes.com, maggie.farley@latimes.com, maria.laganga@latimes.com, marjorie.miller@latimes.com, mark.barabak@latimes.com, mark.mazzetti@latimes.com, mark.porubcansky@latimes.com, maryann.meek@latimes.com, mary.braswell@latimes.com, mary.curtius@latimes.com, matea.gold@latimes.com, maura.reynolds@latimes.com, michael.finnegan@latimes.com, michael.kinsley@latimes.com, michael.muskal@latimes.com, millie.quan@latimes.com, nick.anderson@latimes.com, patrick.mcdonnell@latimes.com, patt.morrison@latimes.com, paul.feldman@latimes.com, peter.wallsten@latimes.com, readers.rep@latimes.com, richard.cooper@latimes.com, richard.simon@latimes.com, robin.abcarian@latimes.com, roger.ainsley@latimes.com, scott.gold@latimes.com, scott.kraft@latimes.com, stephanie.simon@latimes.com, steve.braun@latimes.com, tom.furlong@latimes.com, tom.hamburger@latimes.com, HeraldEd@herald.com, feedback@miaminewtimes.com, world@msnbc.com, hardball@msnbc.com, countdown@msnbc.com, abramsreport@msnbc.com, dshuster@msnbc.com, norville@msnbc.com, dennis.sullivan@msnbc.com, imus@msnbc.com, joe@msnbc.com, jtrippi@msnbc.com, lester.holt@msnbc.com, msnbcinvestigates@msnbc.com, feedback@msnbc.com, rreagan@msnbc.com, viewerservices@msnbc.com, dateline@nbc.com, mtp@nbc.com, nightly@nbc.com, today@nbc.com, online@tnr.com, liptaka@nytimes.com, bobherb@nytimes.com, reissc@nytimes.com, public@nytimes.com, dabrooks@nytimes.com, dakirk@nytimes.com, dasang@nytimes.com, vannatta@nytimes.com, editorial@nytimes.com, erschm@nytimes.com, executive-editor@nytimes.com, febarr@nytimes.com, foreign@nytimes.com, justice@nytimes.com, burns@nytimes.com, cushman@nytimes.com, markoff@nytimes.com, judym@nytimes.com, letters@nytimes.com, ligree@nytimes.com, managing-editor@nytimes.com, liberties@nytimes.com, mossm@nytimes.com, national@nytimes.com, nytnews@nytimes.com, news-tips@nytimes.com, nicholas@nytimes.com, krugman@nytimes.com, pekilb@nytimes.com, ropear@nytimes.com, rotone@nytimes.com, stolberg@nytimes.com, slabaton@nytimes.com, weisman@nytimes.com, lewin@nytimes.com, tiwein@nytimes.com, washington@nytimes.com, safire@nytimes.com, jane_mayer@newyorker.com, themail@newyorker.com, deborah.barfield@newsday.com, ken.fireman@newsday.com, Editors@newsweek.com, HowardFineman, Letters@newsweek.com, nwifeedback@indtvholdings.com, atc@npr.org, ataylor@npr.org, onthemedia@wnyc.org, bwilson@npr.org, bnaylor@npr.org, onthemedia@nyc.org, combudsman@npr.org, cflintoff@npr.org, corrections@npr.org, cwindham@npr.org, dschorr@npr.org, dardalan@npr.org, drshow@wamu.org, connectionweb@wbur.bu.edu, dgonyea@npr.org, emcdonnell@npr.org, jlyden@npr.org, jcochran@npr.org, jwilliams@npr.org, krudin@npr.org, lhansen@npr.org, ombudsman@npr.org, mliasson@npr.org, lusa@npr.org, mblock@npr.org, morning@npr.org, nconan@npr.org, ntotenberg@npr.org, pfessler@npr.org, pbreslow@npr.org, rsiegel@npr.org, sinskeep@npr.org, sstamberg@npr.org, totn@npr.org, tavis@npr.org, freshair@whyy.org, watc@npr.org, wesat@npr.org, wesun@npr.org, jbersia@orlandosentinel.com, news@orlando-times.com, bwhitby@orlandoweekly.com, lam@pacificnews.org, brian@pacificnews.org, editorial@flashpoints.net, now@thirteen.org, charlierose@pbs.org, newshour@pbs.org, phs@philhendrieshow.com, arshad.mohammed@reuters.com, editor@reuters.com, randall.mikkelsen@reuters.com, steve.holland@reuters.com, john.whitesides@reuters.com, rob.doherty@reuters.com, letters@timesdispatch.com, letters@slate.com, blumner@sptimes.com, letters@talkradionews.com, letters@time.com, hugh_sidey@time.com, news@blackamericaweb.com, tom@blowmeuptom.com, tony@thetonyshow.com, bduffy@usnews.com, letters@usnews.com, gborger@usnews.com, jallen@usnews.com, kwalsh@usnews.com, mzuckerman@usnews.com, vpope@usnews.com, whispers@usnews.com, editor@guardianunlimited.co.uk, foreign@guardian.co.uk, letters@guardian.co.uk, home@guardian.co.uk, politics@guardian.co.uk, politics.editor@guardianunlimited.co.uk, foreigneditor@independent.co.uk, letters@independent.co.uk, newseditor@independent.co.uk, investigations_desk@upi.com, focusgroup@upi.com, politics_desk@upi.com, alevin@usatoday.com, astone@usatoday.com, bslavin@usatoday.com, bnichols@usatoday.com, bwelch@usatoday.com, editor@usatoday.com, dmoniz@usatoday.com, ghager@usatoday.com, gflanders@usatoday.com, jlawrence@usatoday.com, jdrinkard@usatoday.com, jbiskupic@usatoday.com, jkeen@usatoday.com, kkiely@usatoday.com, kjohnson@usatoday.com, mhall@usatoday.com, rbenedetto@usatoday.com, rwolf@usatoday.com, spage@usatoday.com, tsquitieri@usatoday.com, tlocy@usatoday.com, theforum@usatoday.com, wshapiro@usatoday.com, greg.hitt@wsj.com, georgewill@washpost.com, jimhoagland@washpost.com, letters@washpost.com, ombudsman@washpost.com, letters@washingtontimes.com, gpierce@washingtontimes.com, jmccaslin@washingtontimes.com
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republikkkon Donating Member (85 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. kiznick...
:kick:
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chomskysright Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. I've sent this out to parties
Marsha Hammond, PhD: Licensed Psychologist;: NC & GA
e mail: hammondmv@netzero.com

November 17, 2004

Hello:

American citizens need the very expensive ($50,000, I am told) data associated with the National Election Poll.

Moreover, I have to say, I find this matter odd:

"What happened to Voter News Service (VNS)?
VNS was disbanded after the 2002 election. Its functions were assumed by the AP and Edison/Mitofsky."

This was cut and pasted by myself as I researched the odd non-presence of a stable exit poll count.

Additionally, the problem is that the exit poll data has been transformed---in a series of sweeps---- in order to mesh with the actual vote. This is most unacceptable.

In my opinion, the voting process should be bipartisan and transparent; this is the only way to have a system with integrity----one that inspires people to vote-----as they belief that their vote will be counted.

Please: this could be forwarded to any number of agencies and that information then be made available to the citizens so that we can.

I'm looking forward to a response to this solicitation.

Sincerely,

Marsha V. Hammond, PhD: Asheville, NC
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Kick.
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:21 AM
Response to Reply #8
36. 120+ Down
a lot to go... I'm auto-reply hell but what the hey.
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MelissaB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #8
57. I just sent an email to the long list
using an edited form of leepsy's letter. It took several cut and pastes, but it is done.
Thanks for making this easier, guys! Those email lists you can just cut and paste are really great.

:kick:
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MelissaB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:20 PM
Response to Reply #8
58. I just sent out an email
using an edited form of leepsy's letter. It took several cut and pastes, but it is done.
Thanks for making this easier, guys! Those email lists you can just cut and paste are really great.

:kick:
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senegal1 Donating Member (489 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 03:17 PM
Response to Reply #8
79. To use the above list in hotmail
For those of us who are not computer savy: when cutting and pasting this email list into hotmail for the first time -- the hotmail seems to only accept the first 100 or so names and the first time you use it you have to delete the space between each email address to make it work. Also in the second 100 of the names are two names without @ . parts which you will have to delete to make this list work. You will also have to add these names to your contact list after you "send' the email and before its really sent. Finally since you can only send 100 or so in the "To" (at least that is my experience) you have to come back and copy each 100 emails. A small price to pay to send something to the press. Otherwise great list.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 09:55 PM
Response to Original message
12. Kevin Drumm comments again on Exit Polls - Calls for openness
Skeptically of course.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005178.php

For the record all the data that was released by Edison Mitofsky this year was weighted. So the historical raw data vs actuals does not help much.

Drum does however call for openness. So that is good and he can be cited like David Dill as someone who wants this out in the open.

The exit pollsters — who, you may recall, are contractors to large media organizations that normally value transparency and the public's right to know — could easily explain this if they chose to. And they could just as easily show us proper comparisons with past results.

But if they did that, then there wouldn't be any conspiracy theories left for large media organizations to mock. We can't have that, can we?

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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
13. Here's a pretty good list for emails
letters@time.com, letters@iht.com, evening@cbsnews.com, nightline@abc.com, feedback@ap.org, opinion@thewire.ap.org, letters@suntimes.com, ctc-editor@tribune.com, am@cnn.com, 360@cnn.com, newsnight@cnn.com, letters@economist.com, letters.editor@ft.com, comments@foxnews.com, feedback@foxnews.com, heartland@foxnews.com, ontherecord@foxnews.com, letters@star-telegram.com, viewpoints@chron.com, sternshow@howardstern.com, letters@latimes.com, readers.rep@latimes.com, feedback@miaminewtimes.com, msnbcinvestigates@msnbc.com, feedback@msnbc.com, editorial@nytimes.com, letters@nytimes.com, news-tips@nytimes.com, themail@newyorker.com, Editors@newsweek.com, Letters@newsweek.com, nwifeedback@indtvholdings.com, onthemedia@wnyc.org, news@orlando-times.com, editorial@flashpoints.net, charlierose@pbs.org, newshour@pbs.org, editor@reuters.com, letters@timesdispatch.com, letters@slate.com, letters@talkradionews.com, letters@time.com, news@blackamericaweb.com, letters@usnews.com, letters@guardian.co.uk, letters@independent.co.uk, newseditor@independent.co.uk, investigations_desk@upi.com, editor@usatoday.com, letters@washpost.com, ombudsman@washpost.com, letters@washingtontimes.com,

******************

There's a few more than just the few you asked for, cat, but the extras are free, and they might have some influence.

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Ladyhawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 10:27 PM
Response to Original message
14. Kick!!! nt
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 10:29 PM
Response to Original message
15. kick (oops - sorry - cross kicked)
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 10:34 PM by Lil
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lavendermist Donating Member (172 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 11:13 PM
Response to Original message
16. This is the letter I sent to everyone on the list,,
November 17, 2004

Hi,

I am a concerned citizen and would like to request and encourage you to release the full original exit poll data on a state by state basis from the time period of 4pm to 8pm and the final pre-incorporation of the tabulated data runs on Election night 2004.

I am concerned because I, and many others I have spoken to, are not sure our vote counted November 2nd. In the interest of democracy and confidence of our voting system, please release this data as soon as possible. Even if you don't believe there was a problem with our election process, in the interest of restoring faith in this process and supporting the media's responsibility to give us all the facts so that we, the people, can make informed decisions, I ask you to release the above information.

Thank you,
Beverly Thomas

:kick:
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MelissaB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #16
54. I just sent an email to the long list
using an edited form of leepsy's letter. It took several cut and pastes, but it is done.
Thanks for making this easier, guys! Those email lists you can just cut and paste are really great.

:kick:
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MelissaB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:17 PM
Response to Reply #16
56.  I just sent an email to the long list
using an edited form of leepsy's letter. It took several cut and pastes, but it is done.
Thanks for making this easier, guys! Those email lists you can just cut and paste are really great.

:kick:
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KatieB Donating Member (431 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 11:35 PM
Response to Original message
17.  I Sent a letter to everyone on the (long)list -
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:25 AM
Response to Original message
18. kickety dooda
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. kickety ay
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:27 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:27 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #24
25. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:29 AM
Response to Reply #25
26. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:42 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. kick
I didn't catch that these were the same...so one last kick
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Griffy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #27
220. Ouch...
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ianrs Donating Member (121 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #18
37. kick n/t
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ewulf Donating Member (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 03:28 AM
Response to Original message
28. We really should try to get the full, state by state data:
just getting the (pure, 12:00) numbers that were posted by the networks would be GREAT, but we really need to focus as locally as possible, preferably on the actual sample of precincts, to really get things working. $10,000 is a fair amount of money, but I'm sure their are a number of groups out their that would be quite capable of raising such a sum, and a lot of curious people who would be willing to pitch in to see the full reports. A hell of a lot more was raised for the recount in NH.

If we had access to this data, it could end up saving this overall election auditing project a lot more money in the end: we could target our recount requests and other investigations much more effectively. It would be a good investment.

I would expect that the DNC would have already bough the full data for strategy analysis purposes (at least if they were worth their salt as a political organization they would have), but somehow I don't think they're in a sharing mode right now.
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 04:42 AM
Response to Reply #28
32. Brilliant. And we should be able to get the money somewhere.
Even the act of asking for money for this and in the process raising the question of why isn't the data freely given are very helpful to our cause.
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #28
48. Should this be posted as a separate thread?
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ewulf Donating Member (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 12:32 AM
Response to Reply #48
67. maybe I will...
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 03:33 AM
Response to Original message
29. This is a FASCINATING story, so I wrote to the Wired News Reporter,
who seems genuine and interested in covering election fraud news.

Here is the letter I wrote:

I sent you a post earlier on Exit Poll data from the election, but there is a lot more to the story. If I were a reader of your column, I would be fascinated to know what one has to go through to get exit poll data, and why it is such a vital part of the election process, even though there are rumors that we don't need exit polls anymore. It seems like readers of Wired News might especially appreciate this story.

A poster at Democratic Underground is asking for help in getting the raw exit poll data, because even though three excellent studies have been done, including one by University of Pennsylvania statistician Steve Freeman,

>>none of these sets of data is from an official source. And so we do not yet have the full credible data that is required for a proper academic or media consideration of this issue. And the fact that the data remains unobtainable is in itself casting suspicions on the outcome of the election.<<

The post goes on:

>>The real data is vital for the reasons I stated in my previous post on this matter namely. " I CANNOT STRESS HOW IMPORTANT THIS IS. THE FULL EXIT POLL DATA IS THE ONLY REAL SNAPSHOT THERE IS OF THIS ELECTION OTHER THAN THE OFFICIAL COUNT." The data is also extremely important and useful for all the people conducting audits of each state election as it not only includes the absolute numbers but it also contains the reasons people voted.<<

He describes his efforts to obtain the exit poll data from pollster Edison Mitofski, and what it would cost.

Dr. Freeman, mentioned above, also writes in the introduction to his analysis of his unsuccessful attempts to get unweighted exit poll data from the members of the National-Exit Poll pool: ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC News.

You may follow this story beginning with these threads from DU:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=58415&mesg_id=58415

an earlier post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x35224

I hope that you will write about this fascinating piece of history as it unfolds. Perhaps you can shed some light on it for us.

Sincerely, :D
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 08:21 AM
Response to Reply #29
34. Yay
Was also thinking that this might be of interest to Wired but hadn't yet gotten around to them.
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 06:56 PM
Response to Reply #34
47. Kim Zetter wrote another honest article about the Berkeley Study...
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 03:38 AM
Response to Original message
30. WTH. I will also write to The Nation. They should know about this
gallant effort.
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 04:39 AM
Response to Reply #30
31. I wrote to Russ Baker
who had just posted a decent article on NH at The Nation website.

Here is what I wrote:

I just hopped over to The Nation website to write a letter to the editors asking them to cover the fascinating story of what is going on with trying to get raw exit poll data from the National Exit-Poll pool, which consists of major television networks and the polling firms Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

I saw your NH recount article and read it, then decided to write to you.

There are three good studies analyzing the exit poll data and discrepancies that exist between what it predicts and the vote tallies of no paper machines. In contrast, traceable votes, interestingly, tally quite well with the exit poll results. But these evaluations need the complete data, which is very hard to obtain. (the studies can be found in the last link below).

Faun Otter first noticed the data anomalies on 11/3:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=11874#19010

Dr. Steven Freeman from U of PA wrote a hurried but thorough paper on the discrepancies, but decried lack of the full data, which he had tried unsuccessfully to obtain from the above mentioned pool. His findings are here:

http://www.legjoints.com/AmericanElectionFraud/the-unexplained-exit.pdf

A poster at DemocraticUnderground who writes for New Zealand Scoop has written more extensively about the need for the data, and has put out several queries for it from Mitofsky. It comes down to money. Someone has suggested that we get it from MoveOn.org, or the DNC, or the Kerry campaign, all of which have been strangely silent on the issue. Here is his request for help getting the data from the media sources in the name of public interest:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=58415&mesg_id=58415

It is pretty frightening, this exit poll business. They are trying to say that we no longer need them in any election. There goes the vote.

I look forward to reading your excellent reporting of this issue. Or if not you, then please pass it to someone else. This is history in the making. It should be recorded.

Sincerely,:-)


Now I think I've earned the right to some sleep. ;)
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illuminaughty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 05:53 AM
Response to Original message
33. Al, just watched an interview on INN
and Mitofsky and the exit polls were the subjects. I caught it in the middle. It's a woman who is connected to the book Votescam.
She described her problems getting info from exit pollers.

In 2002 there were supposed to be 30,000 pollers across the country. But she could not get one name nor any info from these people. Then she was recently told that there would only be 5000 pollers for this election. No reason given.

You are aware that VNS is NEP (national election pool). This woman said that VNS was NES and is now NEP, they just change their name every few years. Here is a link to an interesting interview. I think, but don't promise that this is the person on INN

http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/votescam/collierinterview.htm
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jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 08:36 AM
Response to Reply #33
35. Has anyone tried contacting
The Roper Center for help on this?

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/intro.html
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jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #35
38. Ok, so I called
The Roper Center. They said they should have this data "sometime before the end of the year" but it doesn't sound like anytime soon and "we should keeping checking their web site." Rats.
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ewulf Donating Member (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #38
41. Hm... I wonder what the holdup is?
Does the data get cheeper at some point or something?
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #33
53. This is really important -- can you find any more on it?
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illuminaughty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 04:49 AM
Response to Reply #53
74. Ojai, one of the problems is that
Free Speech TV is having its fund drive currently. So there is no info as to what program you are watching. Guide just says "Best of Free Speech TV" in blocks of 5 hours.

But it was an INN report. The other guest was Lou Posner. Apparently, the exit pollers IDs have always been questionable as far as VNS or NEP goes. I found the link on VoteScam, but can't find a link for INN itself. I know it was originally broadcast around the 5th of November. I'll keep looking
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 01:01 PM
Response to Original message
39. where are we?
I'm about to send off another set of emails and want to be sure this is still an active, urgent thing.

Had to leave for a while and now I'm all lost and behind...
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 04:03 PM
Response to Original message
40. Kick! This is getting too exciting.
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 06:25 PM
Response to Original message
42. kick
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jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 06:43 PM
Response to Reply #42
43. Interview with Warren Mitofsky about exit polls.
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 07:53 PM
Response to Reply #43
51. He declares there is no vote fraud, therefore it is TRUTH.
Edited on Thu Nov-18-04 08:01 PM by Ojai Person
I haven't heard it yet, but I read it on Blumenthal's blog, which was listed on this thread in another post.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/the_freeman_pap.html

That declaration alone is enough to make anyone highly suspicious.
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 06:43 PM
Response to Original message
44. A Message From Don Imus...or
the fruits of emailing absolutely everybody... my email, the reply from whomever deals with his mail (salsa-peddling ass):

You can stick your exit poles where the sun don't shine you groveling nincompoop.


Bush won - get over it!

Tracy Levitz <adverteria@earthlink.net> wrote:
I am writing to add my voice to the others encouraging your organization to release the full original exit poll data on a state-by-state basis (time period of 4 p.m. to 8 p.m.) as well as the final pre-incorporation of the tabulated data runs on election night '04.

Even if no fraud exists, reports of irregularities are compelling enough for this information to be released. Even if the results remain the same, we cannot send the message that "yes, there is a chance your vote will be lost or cast for another candidate but don't worry about it, it'll all work out in the end!"

We all have a stake in ensuring our voting process is as clean and accurate as possible. Otherwise, those who do not participate because they do not believe their vote matters will be proven right and the door will truly be thrown open to fraud in the future.
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jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #44
45. So strange
that people won't even look at this stuff!
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jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #45
46. Freeman study related info here
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/the_freeman_pap.html

Interesting site addressing the Freeman study by pollster Mark Blumenthal. I need to study it closer still, but thought it looked interesting.
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #46
50. Blunenthal refuses to be convinced. Kool-Aid laced analysis.
Freeman should answer him. I'll e-mail him.

He uses reports based on 2000 elections to debunk Freeman's claim that exit polls are valid predictors (from Florida, no less). That alone throws his credibility to properly evaluate what is going on into question:

>>A post-election memo from Mitofsky and Joe Lenski, Mitofsky's associate and partner on the election desk, stated that on election day 2000, VNS's exit poll overstated the Gore vote in 22 states and understated the Bush vote in nine states. In only 10 states, the exit polls matched actual results. The VNS post-election report says its exit poll estimates showed the wrong winner in eight states (Konner, 2003, p. 11).
So much for the previously "high degrees of certainty" Freeman told us about.<<

Although he does make a valid point that Freeman should back up his contention of exit poll validity with more than statements by Thom Hartmann, Dick Morris, and someone else.

Finally, he says that NEP should release their data:

>>I am also frustrated by the lack of transparency and disclosure from NEP, even on such simple issues as reporting the sampling error for each state exit poll. Given the growing controversy, I hope they release as much data as possible on their investigation as soon as possible. The discrepancy also has very important implications for survey research generally, and pollsters everywhere will benefit by learning more about it.<<

But then, the Mitofsky interview convinces him no fraud involved:

>>Update: Mayflower Hill has an exclusive interview with Warren Mitofsky conducted earlier today. Using the type of analysis anticipated previously on this site, Mitofsky explains that his data show no evidence of fraud involving electronic voting machines.<<

The site he refers to directly above is here, from a previous blog:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/vote_fraud_.html


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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #46
61. Freeman's reply
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verdalaven Donating Member (495 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 09:15 AM
Response to Reply #46
88. kick
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #45
49. Do you think it's just too much effort?
Who cares who got screwed, be it a candidate, be it a voter. Short Attention Span America wants to move on to the next big, lurid murder trial.

This day and age, we can pay lip service to it suddenly being cool again to take an interest in politics and current events (other than just the sensational ones). To vote. To get involved. But then we tire of it.

Or maybe some us are just a little salty 'cause we're starting to look a little silly in a big ol' cowboy hat (um, like those terrible photos in the paper, of senior citizens in assisted living that some well-meaning volunteer slapped a goofy hat on).
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 08:14 PM
Response to Reply #49
52. That's why it has to come to this.
Edited on Thu Nov-18-04 08:15 PM by Ojai Person
Our very democracy has to be literally pulled out from underneath us before we realize we can no longer afford to be complacent.

We have to keep telling the truth and pointing out the fallacies! If enough keep on it, it will be heard. It is a phenomenon called "Tipping."
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jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #52
55. God, any idea when "tipping" might occur?
My husband has had about enough of me working at the computer.
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:20 PM
Response to Reply #55
59. December 5?
That's what I keep telling my family....
But in truth, the fight is going to take a lot more time.
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #59
60. A little over two weeks?
For maybe a small sign? I can live with that.
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #60
62. They are saying even sooner over here
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212demop Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #62
63. kick!
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 11:54 PM
Response to Original message
64. AL- Is it worth buying the exit poll results?
Not that I have the money, but we could raise it from DU people if it is really necessary, I would think.
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truehawk Donating Member (797 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #64
65. I agree, I would donate
Al or Ed do you still need the full state exit polls, we could buy them one at a time.
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truehawk Donating Member (797 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #65
77. kick
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Griffy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #64
221. one word... Soros nt
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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 12:21 AM
Response to Original message
66. Kick! eom
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verdalaven Donating Member (495 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 12:54 AM
Response to Original message
68. kick
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peabody71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 12:58 AM
Response to Original message
69. kick
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BREMPRO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 01:22 AM
Response to Original message
70. will do... kick!
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 01:59 AM
Response to Original message
71. So we got the data?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 04:55 AM
Response to Reply #71
73. Nope.. that is linked in the head thread.. it is some data
that TIA got - origin unknowable it seems. It is not "the" data... but it does seem to be part of it. And it fits what we already had so we used it.
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 04:50 AM
Response to Original message
72. kick
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dewaldd Donating Member (185 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 08:57 AM
Response to Original message
75. kick
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 10:16 AM
Response to Original message
76. kick
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pauldp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
78. New Update for Dr. Freeman's Paper
Dr. Freeman has a new draft of "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy"

It responds very strongly to his debunkers.

He has asked that people link directly to his site,
http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf
where he will be posting updates rather than to the first rough draft, which is what many people are still linking to.


:-)
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proudtobeadem Donating Member (665 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 05:03 PM
Response to Original message
80. We need celebrities to know about this NOW!!
We need to alert them ASAP! they can get media coverage even when they don't want it. I wrote a letter which I am sending to a few celebrities that I know were for Kerry. I'll post it below.
Does anyone know of any others? and their email addresses also??
Please post this in it's own post if you can.
This needs to go out ASAP- Celebrities get a TON of email, so it might be a while before anyone acts.
Here is the letter: (feedback on letter please??-it's my first one that I've composed)
Dear EMINEM,
I am writing this hoping that you can help.
There are hundreds if not thousands of reports of election fraud that happened, that people are talking about online right now. Everything from; exit polls being very off -when they are usually pretty accurate, counties in Florida where 70% were democrats but Bush got a large majority of the vote, to voting machines that counted double or stopped counting after a certain number or showed a vote for Bush when a person pressed for Kerry. These are just a few examples of the many many examples of fraud and of the many that we caught (how many don't we know about? with E-voting its hard to say). Also the companies that manufacture these machines are loyal to Bush –in fact one of them –Diebold raised $600,000 for Bush. We need you to help expose this. We have tried repeatedly to tell the media but there is a media blackout, (controlled by large corporations loyal to Bush) They won't say anything about it except to call us conspiracy theorists or to say they are only small local glitches. They won't even cover that 5 congress people have requested an investigation to the Government Accountability Office or that Cobb (green party) and Badnerick, (libertarian) are requesting a recount in OHIO and have raised the money for this.
Please come visit these websites and see for yourself. I know that you cared a lot about this election and you did all you could to turn out the vote -but the fight is NOT OVER! Kerry conceded but it is not legally binding- he can, and I believe he will, retract it. There are thousands of people working on this, -crunching numbers doing research even Professors from different Universities have written statistical analysis papers on it. But we need a voice, - we need someone like you to help bring it out -especially to young voters -I believe they DID turn out in larger numbers than ever -but I don't want them to be disappointed and not vote again next time.
Please visit these sites:

http://www.blackboxvoting.org /

http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/archives/cat_vote_fra...

This is a really good Blog site: (Please visit) 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


http://www.votecobb.org /

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1106-30.htm

http://uscountvotes.org /

http://www.buzzflash.com /

http://www.libertyforum.org/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=new...

By the way, I’m a little older than most of your fans but I still love your music. Keep it up! It’s Great! 
Thank You
SG


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Farah Donating Member (185 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #80
82. just try sites like...
http://www.themovieinsider.com/celebrities/index.php

That would have any that you need to know...
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JudyM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #80
83. Celebrities -- or wealthy comrades, like Mr Soros - who can buy ad
placement. Imagine full-page ads informing people about the highlights, on a black background. Whooo, that'd be excellent.
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proudtobeadem Donating Member (665 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 05:50 PM
Response to Original message
81. kick
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 07:42 PM
Response to Original message
84. kick
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #84
85. kick
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 01:56 AM
Response to Reply #85
86. another kick from Australia
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 05:00 AM
Response to Original message
87. Write, email & fax to get
FULL EXIT POLL DATA
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #87
90. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #90
91. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #91
92. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #92
93. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #93
94. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #94
95. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #95
96. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #96
97. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #97
98. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #98
99. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #99
100. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #100
101. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:23 PM
Response to Reply #101
102. kick (13 times lucky)
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nashville_brook Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
89. kick
kickity kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:39 PM
Response to Original message
103. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #103
104. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #104
105. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #105
106. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #106
107. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #107
108. kick (this is what I do when I\'m on the phone!)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #108
109. kick
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #109
110. kick (your party is not answering,pls try your call later)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #110
111. Kick (peace out)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:54 PM
Response to Original message
112. kick (don't you just hate those automated responses)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #112
113. kick (pls listen carefully)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #113
114. kick (our menu has changed)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #114
115. kick (for instructions in English)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #115
116. kick (pls press one)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #116
117. kick (god, could you give it to me in German?)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #117
118. kick (all our operators are currently busy w other customers)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #118
119. kick (pls stay on the line)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #119
120. kick (your call will be answered in the order it was rec'd)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #120
121. bingo! (live human voice, gotta go...)
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 01:35 PM
Response to Original message
122. move along little doggie
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #122
124. c'mon now you got stiff competition over there
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #124
125. just a *little* more data
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #125
126. kickerekee
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savetheuniverse Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 01:37 PM
Response to Reply #126
127. kickerekee
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 01:35 PM
Response to Original message
123. Can we still buy this and is it worth doing?
If it is really important, we should make that the goal.
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 01:18 AM
Response to Original message
128. Good exit poll article to use to persuade of importance to vote.
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greenmutha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 11:44 AM
Response to Original message
129. Kicking for Al! n/t
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greenmutha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 02:02 PM
Response to Original message
130. kick! n/t
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symphony Donating Member (158 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 02:49 PM
Response to Original message
131. kick n/t
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 03:22 PM
Response to Original message
132. kick
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greenmutha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 06:59 PM
Response to Original message
133. kick! n/t
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 10:19 PM
Response to Original message
134. Big Kick!
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The Backlash Cometh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 11:50 PM
Response to Original message
135. kick
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Matilda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-23-04 01:27 AM
Response to Original message
136. Kicking.
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4democracy Donating Member (285 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-23-04 02:00 AM
Response to Original message
137. Is there a petition to get the results released? n/t
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voss Donating Member (4 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-23-04 06:51 AM
Response to Original message
138. help!
Exit poll data for 12 swing states

Help!

I’ve done a thorough web search for exit poll results for 12 swing states. I find 4 sets of figures. They are all different! And the differences matter a great deal. For example, in Florida’s 4th exit poll, either Kerry leads Bush 51-49, or Bush leads Kerry 49.8 to 49.7. Edison/Mitofsky doesn’t want to release their official figures until January, so we must work with these figures and we need to get them right.

Below I give all the Nov 2 exit poll results I have been able to find for 12 swing states, together with notes as to their web sources. All the exit poll results that are given below are original results obtained by Edison/Mitofsky; I never give the cooked results obtained early on Nov 3 in an attempt to square exit poll results with tabulated results. I don’t find complete figures for some states.

Basic question: does the 4th exit poll result actually include all 4 sets of data, or is it simply one independent result among 4? Clearly the most reliable results would be the summation of the 4 polls taken during the day. But different people take different sets of results seriously…

I would be very grateful if one of you can explain the discrepancies, correct the errors, and help us all interpret the results we have. Please let me know at voss@boun.edu.tr, and post any results here.

Kerry’s percent is given first and then Bush’s.

4 exit polls, Otter & Scoop (1) // 3rd poll, Byrne & Shafer (2) // 4th poll, Simon & Freeman (3) // 3rd poll, Thompson (4)

CO K 48/48/46/48; B 51/50/53/51 // 49 50 // 48.1 49.9 // 49.1 50.9
FL K 51/50/50/51; B 48/49/49/49 // 51 49 // 49.7 49.8 // 50 49
IA K 49/--/50/49; B 49/--/48/49 // 50 49 // 49.7 48.4 // 50.7 49.4
MI K 51/--/51/51; B 47/--/47/47 // 52 46 // 51.5 46.5 // 52.5 47.5
MN K 58/--/58/54; B 40/--/40/44 // 52 46 // 53.5 44.5 // 54.5 45.5
MO K --/--/--/46; B --/--/--/54 // // 47.0 52.0 // 47.5 52.5
NH K 57/--/58/--; B 41/--/41/-- // 54 44 // 54.9 44.1 // 55.4 44.6
NM K 50/50/50/50; B 48/48/48/49 // 50 48 // 50.1 47.5 // 51.3 48.7
NV K --/49/48/--; B --/49/49/-- // 49 48 // 49.2 47.9 // 49.4 50.7
OH K 52/50/50/51; B 48/49/49/49 // 51 49 // 52.1 47.9 // 52.1 47.9
PA K 60/--/54/53; B 40/--/45/46 // 53 46 // 54.1 45.4 // 54.4 45.7
WI K 52/--/51/52; B 43/--/46/47 // 50 48 // 49.2 48.8 // 52.5 47.5

Sources

(1) Faun Otter, “Analysis of exit polls vs. supposed ballot counts, Scoop (New Zealand), 11/4/2004, http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00072.htm.

(2) John Byrne, “Odds of Bush gaining by 4% in all exit poll states 1 in 50,000”, The Blue Lemur, 11/8/2004, http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=405. These results were first given in Jack Shafer, “Updated Late Afternoon Numbers”, MSN Slate, 11/2/2004, http://www.slate.com/Default.aspx?id=2109053&. Shafer and Byrne give the 3rd exit poll results of 4 pm. They agree except that Shafer has WI 51 48 instead of Byrne’s 50 48.

(3) Jonathan Simon, “To those who seek information as a basis for action regarding Bush’s ‘victory’,” Democratic Underground, 11/10/2004, http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x36314. Simon gives the 4th exit poll result of 6-7 pm. Exactly the same figures are given by Steven F. Freeman, “The unexplained exit poll discrepancy,” 11/12/2004. http://www.dakotatechnics.com/downloads, except that Freeman’s MN figure for Bush is 45.4 instead of 44.5; this looks like an error. Simon gives exit poll results, including sample size, for all but 4 of the 50 states + DC.

(4) Alasdair Thompson, “Complete US poll data confirms net suspicions,” Scoop, 11/17/2004, http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm. This article contains 3rd exit polls for all 50 states and DC.





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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-23-04 07:39 AM
Response to Reply #138
139. kick
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greenmutha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-23-04 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
140. Al... do we still need to kick this? n/t
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greenmutha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-23-04 03:44 PM
Response to Original message
141. kick! n/t
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greenmutha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-23-04 09:53 PM
Response to Original message
142. Kickin' for Al... n/t
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-23-04 10:43 PM
Response to Original message
143. Kick
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floridadem30 Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-23-04 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
144. kick
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Paligal Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-23-04 11:33 PM
Response to Original message
145. Is this the "adjusted" or raw exit poll data???
I am really confused about the exit polls we all are questioning. I have heard about raw exit polls and weighted or adjusted exit polls. I linked through the exit polll site to CNN's exit polls state by state, but those exit polls showed pretty much the same thing as the election results. No Kerry lead in states like Ohio or Florida, as has been asserted. So I assume those are adjusted polls? I'm so confused. Are these exit polls in question, that can be purchased for $10,000, the raw exit polls that are unchanged, from election day? Because everywhere I turn there is conflicting data and different numbers.
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Emit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 01:15 AM
Response to Reply #145
146. I don't know if this will help...
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

"Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions
Full 51 State Early Exit Poll Data Released For The First Time"

You might already have this info, but it does have all states for 4 pm exit polls. It shows:

"The complete set of New 4pm Edison & Mitofsky 2004 General Election exit poll data follows in tabulated form (sorted in descending order of the magnitude of the "red shift")"

And states:
"....However CALTECH/MIT's analysis had already been proved flawed on November 11 when Scoop.co.nz published the first iteration of a set of data that was fortuitously captured by VerifiedVoting.org activist Jonathan Simon in the early minutes of Nov. 3 (See… "47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly"). Dr Freeman's report was also based on this data. However Jonathan Simon had not managed to capture data for all states - hence the hunt for the full set of data continued."





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senegal1 Donating Member (489 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 02:17 AM
Response to Reply #146
147. Thinking this is still important and kicking it n/t
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senegal1 Donating Member (489 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 02:47 AM
Response to Reply #147
148. still working on this one and kicking
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 08:57 AM
Response to Reply #148
149. me too, kick
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 12:48 AM
Response to Original message
150. FINALLY FOUND THIS..... I THINK WE ARE MAKING PROGRESS HERE....
Lets keep it up...

The exit poll data we already have is now linked on:
http://electoral-vote.com

Ukraine is attracting attention to the issue and more significantly Olbermann is going on about em... and Mitofsky is getting pissed at all the pressure.

Two DUers have received replies already. Both these threads deserve a look see.. as you can see Mitofsky is not a happy camper

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1387040

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x76393

Meantime keep this kicked and keep sending emails to these media outlets.

alastair
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 03:13 AM
Response to Reply #150
151. Great news!
Are you in NZ now? Do you celebrate Thanksgiving? We will have ours on Mon. - worked on Thurs. - Fri. :-)
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Matilda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 04:54 AM
Response to Reply #151
152. Kick!
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Bozos for Bush Donating Member (821 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #152
153. Kick for turkey!
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #153
154. Kick kick kick
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buzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #150
155. Exit poll data
If people taped the election or you could get a transcript or copy of the broadcasts would this show the information you need. Sandy
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #155
157. Good thought. n/t
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truehawk Donating Member (797 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 04:55 PM
Response to Reply #150
156. M itofsky either has to admit the exit polls were wrong, or that the
election was fraudulent.

So no he is not going to be a happy camper.

There just were not enough people added to each sample after 6 PM to have effected the swing to Bush seen in the "corrected" poll.
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ignatzmouse Donating Member (327 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #150
160. Subtract the Early Vote to Figure the Extent of the Vote Discrepancy
To show how far afield the exit polls were from the "results," once we obtain the full data, remember to subtract the enormous early vote conducted in many states. It is often weighted Democratic, can be as much as a third of the vote, and is separate from the November 2nd returns. Therefore, subtracting the early vote is necessary to actually reveal the extent of the vote slide from exit polls. And BTW, if anyone has or knows of exit poll data from the early vote, PLEASE send it to me.
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 11:09 AM
Response to Reply #150
161. Hey althecat!
Mr. Mitofsky responded to my follow-up e-mail as well as to the first.

Here it is (I've also pasted the e-mail he refers to):

Dear Ms. *,
Sorry about the salutation. I guessed wrong. So did you. And for no reason that is obvious in what I wrote to you. I never called you a moron. I made that comment about those who leaked our results on election day. I stand by that characterization. I don't think much of the leakers or their motives.

As for fraud in the election, I would love to exonerate my exit polls by showing they were right. Sorry to say, they were not. Nor would the exit polls or the raw data from them be useful for demonstrating fraud. I have already spoken to Steven Freeman. I intend to make my report to the people I work for. I will urge them to make the report public.
warren mitofsky



Here's the e-mail I sent:

Dear Mr. Mitofsky,

First of all, I am a woman. It’s Ms. *.

Next, I want to thank you for responding so swiftly to my concerns. My curiosity stems from the fact that exit poll data from 4 p.m., is often referred to as an indicator of the projected outcome. Several news organizations were writing their “Kerry Wins!” pieces based on the polls. No, I would never assume that the score at half-time would be the score at the end of the game, but, sometimes it is.

If there is no conflict, if there is no misunderstanding, I request again that you please release the data from the mid-day and the 4 p.m. polls sooner rather than later. That’s all. If you won’t, or can’t release it, then please explain why. There are people that are trying to interpret the results, statistically explain the “anomalies” and trying to understand how people could have been so wrong in their assumptions. The increase in Bush voters in Florida alone has caused a good deal of confusion. As you and I know, if Pres. Bush had been up by the final margin in Florida all along, it never would have been a “swing state”.

I’m sure that Dr. Steven Freeman, and the people at UC Berkeley and CalTech/MIT would be more than pleased to receive this information as it is the missing piece to their statistical analysis. Please help us close this chapter.

My e-mail was intended as a plea to you to help us put all of this behind us. As you’ve seen from the last couple of days in the Ukraine, exit polls can cause an election to be deemed “illegitimate” and spark mass demonstrations in the streets: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6374820/.

I am not sure whether you are referring to me, personally, as a moron, or those you work with, but I don’t think that we need that kind of name-calling here. I am merely a concerned citizen, trying to assure myself and others that we do indeed have free and fair elections. I don’t think that that is frivolous or “moronic”, do you?

Thanks for your time,
*
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-28-04 12:16 AM
Response to Reply #161
174. Thanks for posting this email!
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 05:10 AM
Response to Original message
158. kick
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Matilda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 07:51 AM
Response to Reply #158
159. Kick.
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 11:12 AM
Response to Original message
162. I've posted a response I received from Mr. M above.
It was a response I received, but did not see until this a.m. since we were out yesterday.

I hope it helps, but it doesn't seem like he's going to release anything anytime soon.

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Paligal Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 04:09 PM
Response to Original message
163. kick
I agree. Very important to get the accurate exit poll data
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greenmutha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
164. kick! n/t
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 10:02 PM
Response to Original message
165. Kick
:kick:
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Paligal Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 02:07 AM
Response to Original message
166. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 02:31 AM
Response to Original message
167. kickety kickety klock
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 04:40 AM
Response to Original message
168. Big Kick and a BIG THANK YOU
Edited on Sat Nov-27-04 05:08 AM by Lil
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 10:45 AM
Response to Original message
169. kick n/t
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
170. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 05:53 PM
Response to Original message
171. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 06:45 PM
Response to Original message
172. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 11:48 PM
Response to Original message
173. kick
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ailsagirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-28-04 12:47 AM
Response to Reply #173
175. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-28-04 12:57 AM
Response to Original message
176. kick
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senegal1 Donating Member (489 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-28-04 01:51 AM
Response to Reply #176
177. Kick its about to leave the front page and I will send some more
emails tomorrow.
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-28-04 04:26 AM
Response to Original message
178. kick for freedom
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-28-04 07:49 AM
Response to Original message
179. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 12:36 AM
Response to Original message
180. kick
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senegal1 Donating Member (489 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 01:34 AM
Response to Reply #180
181. kick it back up -- This is real work!
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senegal1 Donating Member (489 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 02:08 AM
Response to Reply #181
182. Ok I still suggest we buy the damn thing someone earlier said
$10,000 would do the trick. We should also get the phone and call the number.
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 04:33 AM
Response to Reply #182
183. kick
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 07:54 AM
Response to Original message
184. kick
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 03:15 AM
Response to Original message
185. Write, email & fax to get FULL EXIT POLL DATA n/t
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 06:17 AM
Response to Reply #185
187. 1 more kick
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texpatriot2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 03:59 AM
Response to Original message
186. kick
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The Flaming Red Head Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 08:38 AM
Response to Original message
188. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
189. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:38 AM
Response to Original message
190. kick
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 01:48 AM
Response to Original message
191. Kick for Al's EXIT POLLS
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Democrat Dragon Donating Member (699 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 01:57 AM
Response to Reply #191
192. Kick!
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 02:03 AM
Response to Original message
193. The OTHER exit polls, too.
Several of the pre-election tracking polls interviewed early voters. These polls contained demographic questions. More detailed results than those reported in tabloids may be available either on their website or in their catalogue of payed publications. I haven't checked yet.

24% of voters voted early, and Zogby, CNN, and at least Harris polled them. Some of them polled when early turnout was at 20% of the total final turnout.

My theory is that this is why you now see Republicans getting all upset about early voting, saying it is unconstitutional (it may even be, but that's not WHY they hate it.)
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 05:08 AM
Response to Reply #193
194. "pre-election tracking polls interviewed early voters."
I'd wondered about that. Thanks.
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 06:18 AM
Response to Reply #194
195. kick
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 07:00 AM
Response to Reply #194
196. To be clear

The polls *did* post some results where the early voters were separated from the rest of the sample. The results are available seperately, not just lumped in with the rest of the interviewees.
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tll Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 07:52 AM
Response to Original message
197. kick
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proudbluestater Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 09:01 AM
Response to Original message
198. KICK! KICK! KICK!
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Monkie Donating Member (675 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
199. kick and hasnt Keith Olbermann's network already paid for this?
data..
maybe he could get a hold of it?
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 02:52 PM
Response to Reply #199
201. good question. Anyone know answer? n/t
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Monkie Donating Member (675 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #201
203. kick and answering my own question lol
in short yes they bought the exit poll data!
long and funny answer:
i did a bit of googling and found..
"Sheldon Gawiser, chairman of the polling consortium's steering committee and NBC's director of elections"..
so i figured he would know a thing about exit polls so i googled a bit more and found...
http://www.publicagenda.org/polling/polling_20q.cfm

20 Questions Journalists Should Ask About Poll Results

Dr. Sheldon Gawiser and G. Evans Witt, cofounders of the Associated Press/NBC News Poll,
detail what reporters should ask to determine whether opinion research is reliable and meets the standards of the field.
Prepared and distributed by the National Council on Public Polls

and now it gets good :D

"1. Who did the poll?
What polling firm, research house, political campaign, corporation, or other group conducted the poll?
This is always the first question to ask."

"In most cases, reputable polling firms will provide you with the information you need to evaluate the survey"

"2. Who paid for the poll and why was it done?"

"Polls usually are not conducted for the good of the world.
They are conducted for a reason"

why Sheldon Gawiser, chairman of the polling consortium's steering committee and NBC's
director of elections paid for them!or his network did.

so i'm wondering if he could be contacted dr. gawiser or if keith olbermann could
cause reputable people at reputable firms will provide you the information you need to evaluate the survey :D
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 02:16 PM
Response to Original message
200. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 03:49 PM
Response to Original message
202. kick
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rehema Donating Member (184 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-02-04 01:10 AM
Response to Original message
204. Was there a reason given why exit poll website server went down
on election night?
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-02-04 05:48 AM
Response to Original message
205. keeping kicked n/t
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Matilda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-02-04 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #205
206. Kick!
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-02-04 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
207. kick
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Monkie Donating Member (675 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-03-04 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
208. kick!
grrrr
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-03-04 02:02 PM
Response to Original message
209. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-03-04 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
210. kick
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floridadem30 Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-03-04 06:40 PM
Response to Original message
211. kick
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Angry Girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-03-04 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
212. kick
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BlueStateBlue Donating Member (470 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-03-04 10:36 PM
Response to Original message
213. Kick
:kick:
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-03-04 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
214. Kick
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floridadem30 Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-04-04 12:31 AM
Response to Original message
215. kick
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KerryOn Donating Member (899 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-07-04 09:08 PM
Response to Original message
216. TruthIsAll Exit Poll Data
Hi,

Just joined your group to share some interesting data about the 4:00 p.m. exit poll data posted by TruthIsAll.

In case you did not notice scoop claims that they got the data from this message board and that it was posted by ThisISAll. ThisISAll insinuated that he got the data from Scoop? http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

I don't know where it came from, but I think I have proven that this data is bogus.

In stead of using the percentages of the actual vote for Kerry and Bush I calculated the Kerry and Bush percentages using just their total vote. (That is the percentages with out Nadar and the other lesser know cantidates.) Then I compared that with the exit poll data that ThisIsAll posted. Results... Well ... Take the first one NH. Bush Actual-Exit=-4.72, Kerry Actual-Exit=+4.72
About the same results all the way down the list.

These exit poll numbers are Bogus. There is no way that 43 states would comeout all with in 1/100th of a percent. NO WAY!

Kirt

STATE B Act% B Ext% B Dif K Act% K Ext% K Dif
NEW HAMPSHIRE 50.68% 55.40% -4.72% 49.32% 44.60% 4.72%
SOUTH CAROLINA 41.30% 46.00% -4.70% 58.70% 54.00% 4.70%
DELAWARE 53.82% 58.50% -4.68% 46.18% 41.50% 4.68%
VERMONT 60.34% 65.00% -4.66% 39.66% 35.00% 4.66%
ALASKA 36.17% 40.50% -4.33% 63.83% 59.50% 4.33%
NORTH CAROLINA 43.71% 48.00% -4.29% 56.29% 52.00% 4.29%
NEW YORK 58.83% 63.00% -4.17% 41.17% 37.00% 4.17%
ALABAMA 37.08% 41.00% -3.92% 62.92% 59.00% 3.92%
NEBRASKA 33.09% 36.80% -3.71% 66.91% 63.30% 3.61%
RHODE ISLAND 60.48% 64.00% -3.52% 39.52% 36.00% 3.52%
UTAH 27.06% 30.50% -3.44% 72.94% 69.50% 3.44%
OHIO 48.75% 52.10% -3.35% 51.25% 47.90% 3.35%
MISSISSIPPI 39.90% 43.30% -3.40% 60.10% 56.80% 3.30%
MASSACHUSETTS 62.70% 66.00% -3.30% 37.30% 34.00% 3.30%
CONNECTICUT 55.24% 58.50% -3.26% 44.76% 41.50% 3.26%
PENNSYLVANIA 51.14% 54.40% -3.26% 48.86% 45.70% 3.16%
FLORIDA 47.47% 50.00% -2.53% 52.53% 49.00% 3.53%
IDAHO 30.71% 33.50% -2.79% 69.29% 66.50% 2.79%
MINNESOTA 51.76% 54.50% -2.74% 48.24% 45.50% 2.74%
VIRGINIA 45.65% 47.00% -1.35% 54.35% 51.00% 3.35%
WISCONSIN 50.20% 52.50% -2.30% 49.80% 47.50% 2.30%
WYOMING 29.70% 29.00% 0.70% 70.30% 65.00% 5.30%
ARIZONA 44.74% 47.00% -2.26% 55.26% 53.00% 2.26%
ILLINOIS 55.09% 57.00% -1.91% 44.91% 43.00% 1.91%
LOUISIANA 42.64% 44.50% -1.86% 57.36% 55.50% 1.86%
NEW JERSEY 53.21% 55.00% -1.79% 46.79% 45.00% 1.79%
COLORADO 47.35% 49.10% -1.75% 52.65% 50.90% 1.75%
NEW MEXICO 49.60% 51.30% -1.70% 50.40% 48.70% 1.70%
WEST VIRGINIA 43.56% 45.30% -1.74% 56.44% 54.80% 1.64%
ARKANSAS 45.03% 46.60% -1.57% 54.97% 53.40% 1.57%
INDINA 39.56% 41.00% -1.44% 60.44% 59.00% 1.44%
GEORGIA 41.58% 43.00% -1.42% 58.42% 57.00% 1.42%
WASHINGTON 53.65% 55.00% -1.35% 46.35% 45.10% 1.25%
MISSOURI 46.33% 47.50% -1.17% 53.67% 52.50% 1.17%
IOWA 49.54% 50.70% -1.16% 50.46% 49.40% 1.06%
KENTUCY 40.00% 41.00% -1.00% 60.00% 59.00% 1.00%
MICHIGAN 51.72% 52.50% -0.78% 48.28% 47.50% 0.78%
MARYLAND 56.25% 57.00% -0.75% 43.75% 43.00% 0.75%
NEVADA 48.67% 49.40% -0.73% 51.33% 50.70% 0.63%
OKLAHOMA 34.44% 35.00% -0.56% 65.56% 65.00% 0.56%
DC 90.63% 91.00% -0.37% 9.37% 9.00% 0.37%
MAINE 54.48% 54.80% -0.32% 45.52% 45.30% 0.22%
MONTANA 39.51% 39.80% -0.29% 60.49% 60.30% 0.19%
OREGON 51.97% 51.20% 0.77% 48.03% 48.80% -0.77%
CALIFORNIA 55.00% 54.00% 1.00% 45.00% 46.00% -1.00%
HAWAII 54.37% 53.30% 1.07% 45.63% 46.70% -1.07%
TENNESSEE 42.78% 41.50% 1.28% 57.22% 58.50% -1.28%
SOUTH DAKOTA 39.09% 37.80% 1.29% 60.91% 62.30% -1.39%
TEXAS 38.48% 37.00% 1.48% 61.52% 63.00% -1.48%
KANSAS 36.97% 35.00% 1.97% 63.03% 65.00% -1.97%
NORTH DAKOTA 36.09% 34.00% 2.09% 63.91% 66.00% -2.09%
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straw_citizen Donating Member (49 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-07-04 09:38 PM
Response to Original message
217. kick
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lip-sink Donating Member (75 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-07-04 10:12 PM
Response to Original message
218. cat: can we get a handy relevant media target list handy here?
can anybody post email @'s 1) for the appropriate personnel at the outlets holding onto the raw polls as well as 2)for media sources with whom we might publicize the urgent need for their release??
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 11:44 PM
Response to Original message
219. kicking from the VERY BRINK of the archives :-) n/t
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #219
222. Keepng it kicked!
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Griffy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 12:34 AM
Response to Reply #222
223. kick bush in the...
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Shalom Donating Member (832 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 12:49 AM
Response to Original message
224. Combine 10,000 Requests to nets with a SINGLE ONE THEY MUST ANSWER
While it is all very good for 10,000 of us to bombard the networks and demand they release the polling data, it may not do us any good if they don't reply responsively to anyone.

What we want from the nets is a responsive answer: either do what we ask, or give us a good reason why you won't.

It seems to me that if a request came from some official body, such as Conyers and his Judiciary Committee Dems, the networks would be forced into giving an answer.

We need to make the nets know up front that if their answer is not the answer that American deserves, then they will get what they deserve: a media onslaught that they will never forget or recover from.
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