Does UC Berkeley Study mean Kerry may have won Florida?

[papau]

IS "STOLEN ELECTION -KERRY WON FLORIDA -MAYBE - UC Berkeley Research suggest possible 260,000 vote theft" the right way to view this?

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/11-18-2004/0002464301&EDATE=

UC Berkeley Research Team Sounds 'Smoke Alarm' for Florida E-Vote Count


Statistical Analysis - the Sole Method for Tracking E-Voting - Shows
Irregularities May Have Awarded 130,000 - 260,000 or More Excess Votes to Bush
in Florida

Research Team Calls for Investigation

BERKELEY, Calif., Nov. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Today the University of
California's Berkeley Quantitative Methods Research Team released a
statistical study - the sole method available to monitor the accuracy of e-
voting - reporting irregularities associated with electronic voting machines
may have awarded 130,000-260,000 or more excess votes to President George W.
Bush in Florida in the 2004 presidential election. The study shows an
unexplained discrepancy between votes for President Bush in counties where
electronic voting machines were used versus counties using traditional voting
methods - what the team says can be deemed a "smoke alarm." Discrepancies this
large or larger rarely arise by chance - the probability is less than 0.1
percent. The research team formally disclosed results of the study at a press
conference today at the UC Berkeley Survey Research Center, where they called
on Florida voting officials to investigate.
The three counties where the voting anomalies were most prevalent were
also the most heavily Democratic: Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade,
respectively. Statistical patterns in counties that did not have e-touch
voting machines predict a 28,000 vote decrease in President Bush's support in
Broward County; machines tallied an increase of 51,000 votes - a net gain of
81,000 for the incumbent. President Bush should have lost 8,900 votes in Palm
Beach County, but instead gained 41,000 - a difference of 49,900. He should
have gained only 18,400 votes in Miami-Dade County but saw a gain of 37,000 -
a difference of 19,300 votes.
"For the sake of all future elections involving electronic voting -
someone must investigate and explain the statistical anomalies in Florida,"
says Professor Michael Hout. "We're calling on voting officials in Florida to
take action."
The research team is comprised of doctoral students and faculty in the UC
Berkeley sociology department, and led by Sociology Professor Michael Hout, a
nationally-known expert on statistical methods and a member of the National
Academy of Sciences and the UC Berkeley Survey Research Center.
For its research, the team used multiple-regression analysis, a
statistical method widely used in the social and physical sciences to
distinguish the individual effects of many variables on quantitative outcomes
like vote totals. This multiple-regression analysis takes into account of
the following variables by county:

* number of voters
* median income
* Hispanic/Latino population
* change in voter turnout between 2000 and 2004
* support for Senator Dole in the 1996 election
* support for President Bush in the 2000 election.
* use of electronic voting or paper ballots

"No matter how many factors and variables we took into consideration, the
significant correlation in the votes for President Bush and electronic voting
cannot be explained," said Hout. "The study shows, that a county's use of
electronic voting resulted in a disproportionate increase in votes for
President Bush. There is just a trivial probability of evidence like this
appearing in a population where the true difference is zero - less than once
in a thousand chances."
The data used in this study came from public sources including CNN.com,
the 2000 US Census, and the Verified Voting Foundation. For a copy of the
working paper, raw data and other information used in the study can be found
at: http://ucdata.berkeley.edu .


SOURCE UC Berkeley
Web Site: http://ucdata.berkeley.edu

[SteppingRazor]

1. Not likely

Kerry lost Florida by about 337,000 votes. The study's range is 130,000 to 260,000.

[jsamuel]

6. The study only applies to 15 e-vote counties. Doesn't include 53 nonevote

there are a lot more problems in those counties too... Volusia...

[Eloriel]

10. Whoa, Whoa, WHOA!!!!

Optical scan voting systems most certainly ARE computerized. ALL of FL is either DRE or optical scan, with one county listed as "mixed" (whatever that may be). Check out the map at this link:

http://electionline.org/interactiveMap.jsp?page=Interactive+Map

Choose "voting systems" from the drop down list (near the very bottom of the list) and then click on FL on the map -- up pops a color-coded map showing which counties use what.


This and other resources, news and developments, activism things you can do, etc. can be found here:

VOTE FRAUD Links - a DU Compendium
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=201&topic_id=1984#

VOTE FRAUD Links Compendium - Thread #2
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=201x3223

ALSO SEE: VOTE FRAUD? What can we do? http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2701028#

********SEND THIS TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW AND MEDIA TOO *********
Best Fraud Summary I've seen!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x57214
Link: http://www.bopnews.com

[jsamuel]

15. This particular study ONLY INCLUDED EVOTING!

http://uscountvotes.org/

As you can see, only 15 counties used e-voting.
53 used op-scan, one of which is Volusia...

But even using your source, it still shows 15 Counties with evoting (Green), 1 county mixed (Purple), and 52 which are op-scan (Red, like Volusia).

[goldengreek]

13. Volusia is NOT included?

It only applies to fifteen counties? Then in that case we may very well be looking at a reversal of the count, even if the Republicans who own the government won't let it get registered legally. There's still a lot of room to wiggle here.

[phantom power]

2. I think it proves that something funny is going on.

I would consider it something like "proabable cause". We really need to get to the bottom of this. Not that I'm holding my breath.

[SteppingRazor]

3. Granted.

It certainly means we should look into this.

[FloridaPat]

4. I saw the exit poll results. The last 3 elections were stolen.

Democracy is dead. We have had a dictator since 2000. Don't forget all those Democratic senators that got thrown out in 2002. Same scenario.

[papau]

5. Great video link below re Electronic voting fraud!

Great video link below re Electronic voting fraud!


A way to end the "voting machine problems" code/Diebold...folks eyes would glaze over - problem.

This is the time to send this to everyone. I have Dialup and it's a long download but even those with Dial-up can just download it over night and save it to cache if you want to watch it.

It's incredibly well done....And we need to send it to anyone we know who has worked with us on the campaign or in the Democratic establishment right now!


http://www.votergate.tv /

[symbolman]

14. If you want a DVD you can pop in at home

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We'll let Take Back the Media take over:"

For instance, do you know if you have a Constitutional right to have your vote counted, or for you to vote at all?

The 2004 election is no different than its predecessors except the potential for fraud was higher than ever seen before. Our cameras focused on irregularities in Florida and other states between reported results and exit poll results. Harassment and voter intimidation was a frequent sight at polling places -- and we've got it all on film.

Our award winning team is a mix of the musical masters and film magic-makers of Peopletopeople.tv, and one of the inventors of the political Flash attack ad - not only did Micheal Stinson of Takebackthemedia.com win a Hollywood award for his animation work (which is included in the film, bringing Monty-Pythonish humor to the subject) but the combined team created one of the 14 ads chosen from 1600 entries in the MoveOn.org "Bush in 30 seconds" contest.

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[jsascj]

7. Does this mean that the machines CREATED 130,000-260,000

additional votes? Or did they TAKE 130-260K from Kerry and give them to Bush? I get lost in this stuff and miss things sometimes.

If they did take them from Kerry, the high number in that range could actually turn the election.
Bush Kerry
3,911,825 3,534,609
- 260,000 +260,000

3,651,825 3,794,609

Pretty simplistic, I know, but what a wonderful thought!

[Petrodollar Warfare]

18. Evidence looks like computer code to "re-allocate" some votes

Here is how easy it is to give Bush a "mandate" via Florida;

1) Hire hacker/politcal operative (moderate skill is all that is needed if #2 and #3 are "pre-arranged")
2) Provide them with the dial-up modem access numbers for the GEMS server (or "war-dial" to get in, but I suspect the access numbers were not secure, and time would likely be an issue).
3) Enter password for GEMS access (or crack password with a number of different password cracking applications)
4) Open up GEMS application
5) Open up MS Access database in that GEMS server:

6) Add a few lines of code to database that basically follow this logic:

COUNTERS: (B) = Bush; (K) = Kerry; (V) = Vote; (T) = Tally

If V = B, add 1 to B
If T = 9, add 1 to B; Clear T; Skip 3
If V = K, add 1 to K; Add 1 to T

7) Re-run GEMS database/vote tabulation application.
8) Log-out of GEMS
9) Delete activity from audit log (this would show a "black hole" of the time stamps between logging in, "hacking" system, and logging out)
10) Collect your pay-off, keep your secret.
11) Don't let me or any other Patriotic American every find out who you are...

So, what did we do in those hypothetical 5 minutes? We just shifted 11% of Kerry's vote to Bush. It magic...or in this case, a fraudulent "mandate."

Is stealing 11% too obvious? Probably, so let's just change second line of code to "T = 14," and now we're only stealing 7% of Kerry's votes, which would have been approx. 260,000 votes according to my calculations using your figure of 3,794,609.

This extremely simple bit of programming would go unnoticed unless:

1) exit poll variance with actual machine tabulation (using final/weighted 6pm exit polls)
2) rigerous statistical analysis that showed some unexplainable anomally

Well folks, both are now plainly evident. Of course proving this would require a full-blown INFOSEC (Information Security) forensic investigation to include a review of the source code of the machines and more likely, central GEMS server that performed the vote tabulation. Also, a tedious review of the network router activity to the GEMS server ip address (via a tedious packet inspection of the network looking for strange IP origination addresses going across the network).

Somehow I don't think the fascist powers in charge are going to allow an INFOSEC forensic investigation of either the Florida or Ohio voting hardware and relevant network logs...but the Berkeley study shows that some type of systemic vote manipulation occured...all in Bush's favor...and I seriously doubt it was an innocent software "glitch" that affected multiple counties. Locking down the building(s) with the election PCs, and seizing the network audit logs/computers by either force or rule of law is probably the only way to truly verify what exactly happened.

(Below is an excellent link on "How to Hack Diebold Elections for Dummies')
http://www.chuckherrin.com/hackthevote.htm

[noserotonin]

19. God, I wish that was the case...

I was reading through the draft working paper available here, and unfortunately this quote stood out:

The state-wide impact of these disparities due to electronic voting
amount to 130,000 votes if we assume a “ghost vote” mechanism and twice
that – 260,000 votes – if we assume that a vote misattributed to one
candidate should have been counted for the other.

So, I think this is the result (using your numbers):

Subtracting 130,000 instead of 260,000 from Bush and adding to Kerry.
Bush: 3,781,825
Kerry: 3,664,609

New Bush margin 50.78%
New Kerry margin: 49.13%

But would this trigger a recount?

[magellan]

8. Berkeley is just confirming

that we're a failed democracy.

Quite honestly, with the DNC holding its hand out again for more denaro while it sits on its a$$ and does nothing about the election investigation, I no longer want Kerry in DC any more than I want Bush** there. We have GOT to figure out how to take back our government from these monied, self-interested, boardroom goons!! Otherwise we'd better just get used to the idea of being increasingly powerless in the New American Empire.

[pbartch]

21. DNC email titled "We heard you, and we're committed to fight" wasn't true

I got it today and I thoughT --- OH BOY!!!! THEY ARE GOING TO FIGHT FOR THE ELECTION! THEY ARE SICK OF ELECTION FRAUD. The email didn't say that.

The DNC has failed to MAKE EVERY VOTE COUNT. They are asking for $$$
W-H-Y?????? Why will they not listen to us?

Here's what the email said:

Dear XXXXXX:

Last week we asked for your feedback about the 2004 election, and tens of thousands of you responded with your positive experiences, your negative experiences, and your advice for what should come next.

One thing was clear: Democrats are deeply committed to fighting for our values, and the disappointing results of this year's election can't change that.

We're taking in all your comments and ideas and factoring them into the Democratic Party's strategy moving forward. If you'd like to read a sampling of the comments we've received, or if you haven't left your comments yet, be sure to visit our website:

http://www.democrats.org/thanks/

Here's what's coming up next. As you've been reading in the news, the Bush administration is in the midst of a big staff shakeup. A half dozen cabinet members have announced their resignations, and the White House has already started announcing nominations for their replacements.

But the biggest nominations are just around the corner. We have every reason to expect that very soon, George W. Bush will have the opportunity to appoint at least one, and possibly three, Supreme Court justices (including the chief justice), decisions that will affect every aspect of our lives for decades to come.

The Court fight encompasses the values we stand for and fought so hard for during the Election. The Democratic Party will not stand by and let President Bush use the Supreme Court to placate the most extreme members of his party. We will fight for a nominee who will protect the rights and values we hold dear, and you will be a crucial part of that fight.

We'll write you next week to tell you more about how you can get involved early in our fight to protect the Supreme Court.

Thanks for all that you do,

The DNC Internet Team

[Gothmog]

9. Would make it close enough for a recount to be worth while

If the margin was under 100,000 then it would have been worth while to recount the ballots and look for over votes in the optical reader counties.

[tandem5]

11. its means...

there are very real discrepancies in the vote and further investigation is necessary. It means, thus far, the pundits, in general, are unqualified to make definitive declarations about what happened on election day regardless of their self-described “expert” titles.

[distantearlywarning]

12. No. But don't forget...

there is evidence out there that something is screwy with OpScan machines as well.

[Straight Shooter]

16. Optical Scan having been renamed Optical Scam

by one of our very own DU'ers, possibly DoYouEverWonder. I forget which one, I've slept since then.

Optical Scam

[Capn Sunshine]

17. Wel,, Zogby et al seemed to think so

but this was their conclusion the weekend before the election independent of post election studies.

Eh. it's such a funny world.

[Shalom]

20. YES, Because It Demonstrates FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD

We seem to forget that even if we "only" prove that the POS POTUS, the AWOL cowardly cokehead commander-in-thief, George Walker Bushitler stole between 130,000 and 260,000 votes in Florida with 99.9% certainty, then we know enough to prove that this POS needs to be indicted, impeached, and put in the equivalent of Abu Ghraib, and that 'aint all bad.

And by the way, we'll be well on our way to flipping BOTH Florida and Ohio.

Cheers!