Nice work.
I think what has people worried is that somehow the UC Berkeley study is claiming that Ohio came out clean in their work, and Florida optical scan was not a problem but the evoting counties were, according to the way they put together their work.
The data you worked with from Kathy Dopp pretty much shows the opposite -- larger discrepancies in opscan counties.
We really need more graphics of some of these studies, like you did.
Would you be willing to take a look at the UC Berkeley study and see if there's anything you could render into a chart, so we could see how it looks that way -- they didn't chart their findings, except one chart that is hard for a layperson to understand.
Here is the link to get there.
Most interesting statement they made --
Paraphrase of UC Berkeley findings on presidential vote:
The more "blue" a Florida county was in 2000 presidential tallies, the more unexpected "red" votes were observed in 2004, in those Florida counties utilizing electronic voting.I'd love to see if there's a graphical way to illustrate the above sentence, which is a paraphrase of sort of an offhand statement made by lead author Hout at the press conference.
http://ucdata.berkeley.edu/University of California - Berkeley
UC Data - Data Archive & Technical Assistance
first entry under VOTING
Working Paper:
The Effect of Electronic Voting Machines on
Change in Support for Bush
in the 2004 Florida Electionsby Michael Hout, Laura Mangels, Jennifer Carlson, and Rachel Best
With the assistance of the UC Berkeley Quantitative Methods Research Team
Last revision: 11/22/2004
Summary:
- Irregularities associated with electronic voting machines may have awarded 130,000 excess votes or more to President George W. Bush in Florida.
- Compared to counties with paper ballots, counties with electronic voting machines were significantly more likely to show increases in support for President Bush between 2000 and 2004. This effect cannot be explained by differences between counties in income, number of voters, change in voter turnout, or size of Hispanic/Latino population.
- In Broward County alone, President Bush appears to have received approximately 72,000 excess votes.
- We can be 99.9% sure that these effects are not attributable to chance.
Details:
Because many factors impact voting results, statistical tools are necessary to see the effect of touch-screen voting. Multiple-regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in the social and physical sciences to distinguish the individual effects of many variables.
This multiple-regression analysis takes account of the following variables by county:
- number of voters
- median income
- Hispanic population
- change in voter turnout between 2000 and 2004
- support for President Bush in 2000 election
- support for Dole in 1996 election
When one controls for these factors, the association between electronic voting and increased support for President Bush is impossible to overlook. The data show with 99.0% certainty that a county’s use of electronic voting is associated with a disproportionate increase in votes for President Bush.
The data used in this study come from CNN.com, the 2000 US Census, the Florida Department of State, and the Verified Voting Foundation - all publicly available sources. This study was carried out by a group of doctoral students in the UC Berkeley sociology department in collaboration with Professor Michael Hout, a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the UC Berkeley Survey Research Center.
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From the paper, pg. 4: "
Essentially, net of other effects, electronic voting had the greatest positive effect in percent voting for Bush from 2000 to 2004 in democratic counties."From the press conference on Nov. 18, 2004, paraphrasing by KPFT reporter Pokey Anderson:
Simply put, the more "blue" a Florida county was in 2000 presidential tallies, the more unexpected "red" votes were observed in 2004 in those Florida counties utilizing electronic voting.
The most numerically important of the Florida counties with discrepancies under this model, Hout said, would be: Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade.
Here's a excerpt of the press conference -
According to Sociology Professor Michael Hout (UC-Berkeley) in a press conference on November 18, 2004:
Q: Were there counties in which there was e-voting but no anomalies?
A: Yes, some of the small counties that had strong support for President Bush actually didn't produce any statistical anomaly.
...
ur estimate of the size of the discrepancy between evoting and optical scan is proportional to the level of support that the President got in the 2000 election. So the bigger the support he got, the smaller the effect. So, I guess I should say, it's proportional to Vice President Gore's support.
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<--- this is the one I suspect you mean
