OK, I need clarification on NH

[RaulVB]

What is it that Nader wanted to do there?

How is the outcome connected to NM, Nevada, Florida or Ohio, where we all know there is a full load of evidence concerning electoral fraud?

Just looking to understand because Republicans are going to jump on this issue.

[jamboi]

1. Nader's people saw major exit polling discrepencies. He moved

to take a sample w/ the option to go statewide and go to other states if he found anything. It may or may not have shown anything by itself, but it helped get the momentum going. He picked NH because the government there was more likely to cooperate (ie. its a blue(er) state) so we could get quick feedback.

[righteous1]

10. The difference in exit polls

was 11% in NH 6% Fla and 4% Ohio....so they assumed if there were going to be any big discrepancies they would go to a state with a large diff between exit polls and actual vote tally

[KatieB]

19. Hey guys- Nader only checked 11 out of 126 precincts

This was not a state-wide recount.

source:http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/techpolicy/evoting/2004-11-19-nh-recount_x.htm

Assistant Attorney General Bud Fitch said recounts in Nader's targeted precincts would not resume until at least Wednesday, virtually ensuring they won't end until after Thanksgiving.

Nader, an independent presidential candidate this year, paid $2,000 to begin a recount of 11 of the state's 126 precincts after an analysis showed wide differences in voting trends between the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. <<
<snip>
Zeese said the campaign could request more recounts in New Hampshire or other states if the initial results merited the decision. The scheduling of other precinct recounts depends on the campaign. More money, about $3,500 to $4,000, would be required for those precincts, Fitch said.

The Nader campaign didn't expect to change the outcome. In New Hampshire, Democrat John Kerry defeated President Bush, 50% to 49%, while Nader got less than 1% from the state's 301 precincts.

[righteous1]

2. My understanding is that

NH was a Guinie(sp) Pig. Recounts in NV and NM would somewhat depend on what they saw in NH. If after the recount in NH showed no significant discrepancies they would re-evaluate whether to attempt a recount in NM & NV

[RaulVB]

3. OK, that's the problem I have

You can't evaluate if a recount in New Mexico or Nevada is necessary by connecting the problem with New Hampshire.

That's my take on it.

[bemis12]

5. You would have said differently

had they found fraud in NH.

[RaulVB]

8. No, I wouldn't

No need to be a rocket scientist. Different states presented different discrepancies on election night.

BTW, if I want to say something I don't usually ask for help.

Thanks anyway!

[righteous1]

7. No argument there

But I'm just stating what the Nader media people were saying

[RaulVB]

9. Yes, I know

Thanks for the reply.

[Igel]

12. True, but ...

The argument's been

Exit polls are never wrong;
exit polls show a Kerry win (in general);
therefore Kerry won (in general)

So the clash between vote results and exit polls has to be resolved in favor of the exit polls. Presumably in NH, as well as other places.

But given NH, it looks like we're left with our major premise falsified. Doesn't mean that results in OH, NV, etc., weren't tweaked (F --> T is T), but we're left with the bald assertion that fraud occurred.

[RaulVB]

14. Exit polls can be wrong...

That is the problem with using NH as a test case.

Ohio and Florida can't be explained by inaccurate exit polling, because at least the polls will tell you that the right candidate wins and the final count should never contradict the polls in that context, like happened in Florida and Ohio

[mirandapriestly]

4. NH had the most extreme margins between exit polls and results

even though Kerry won, so it was thought that maybe Bush was padding the popular vote there, also.

[RaulVB]

6. Which leads to the "obvious" conclusions or set of questions...

Where is the people polled in New Hampshire, who are they and who did the polling?

A totally different problem there.

[flyarm]

11. maybe n.h. was ....

maybe N.H. was neither, maybe they were examining how they were going to go about proving fraud..maybe they were looking for patches so where it really mattered they would know exactly where to look...maybe the were doing forensic stuff without anyone realizing it..because the flood lights weren't on in n.h...and they could have been building a profile!!

[righteous1]

13. Don't think so, was a matter of high discrepancy between

exit polls and vote tally (11%) in NH only 6% Fla and 4% OH

[Hobbes199]

15. Didn't really expect them to find much after a month...

But I'm hoping they were looking for other discrepancies, that might indicate cover-up.

[KatieB]

16. But Naders' recount was only select (11) precincts and not the whole state

Why did he not do the whole state?

[mirandapriestly]

This is making me wonder if the fraud was covered-up

successfully, although I am not familiar enough with the equipment to know if that would be possible

[mirandapriestly]

17. This is making me wonder if the fraud was covered-up

successfully, although I am not familiar enough with the equipment to know if that would be possible

[Smirking_Chimp]

18. Nader set us up.

Rovian trick to distract from the real fraud. Meant to discourage future recounts.

[ccarter84]

20. do we have anything impounded?

as in, do we have any voting machines that were disconnected after voting on nov 2 and locked away where no technician or phone line could get to them?
a judge set something aside I seem to remember...but I think that was somewhere in ohio and maybe 2 weeks post election?

[ccarter84]

22. kick

kickety kick kick :kick:

[m.standridge]

21. RE set up

Well-- did they ever find that poll tape for Ward -- 9, was it? When they stopped up there in NH back before Thanksgiving, they were looking for a poll tape that had disappeared.
BBV has encountered a disappearing poll tape phenomenon in FL. They found one or two in trash cans, having been replaced by "corrected" ones.
What was it--15% of Naderites are "Republicans"?
It wouldn't take but one or two on the staff, and just happening to be in NH...
Of course, the NH poll tape disappearance may have NO CONNECTION with the goings-on in FL, and just be a wild coincidence. Not all Republicans are bad people and some have high scruples who just happen to have originally gotten involved with a bad crowd. Now they're with Nader and all is well...
I suspect they'd have to recount the whole state to get an accurate recount.
What was it the august Ct. said in Bush v. Gore? That you can't "cherry pick" where to recount?
Whoa! Do I sound CYNICAL or what?

[Helga Scow Stern]

23. Looking for results in NM and NV is NOT dependent on what they

found in NH. It merely got the whole process in motion and actually adds credibility to our cause.

Let the Rethugs and MSM say what they want. They are going to squeal in any case, no matter what.

It is just like interviewing supects after a murder. Just because you go to one supect and you don't find anything, it doesn't mean you stop asking questions or don't interview anyone else. Or that no murder occurred.

[RaulVB]

24. KICK